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  #41  
Old 24.03.2009, 14:49
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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While the government is there to provide a lucrative incentive for teenage mums to procreate (i.e. money to live on, a place to live in and all sorts of freebies) there will be an endless supply of babies to keep topping up the population.
This is a dilemma. As one day we are told, that we need population growth, on order for our pensions to be funded, when we get old. Then the next day we are told that the population needs to be controlled. It's obviously not a sustainable solution. A pessimist is an optimist, that knows better. (or something like that)
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  #42  
Old 24.03.2009, 14:51
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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Wait for the looming war with the machines to sort it out...
but cylons can breed with humans (or so i've been told on battlestar...)
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  #43  
Old 24.03.2009, 14:54
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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This is a dilemma. As one day we are told, that we need population growth, on order for our pensions to be funded, when we get old. Then the next day we are told that the population needs to be controlled. It's obviously not a sustainable solution. A pessimist is an optimist, that knows better. (or something like that)
Maybe I am a pessimist, piffed off because of the dreary weather we are having but I can't see offspring created in such circumstances being the next captains of industry. More that they are doomed to a life on benefits and their own share of teenage pregnancies.

Hope I am wrong, though...
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  #44  
Old 24.03.2009, 14:58
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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Maybe I am a pessimist, piffed off because of the dreary weather we are having but I can't see offspring created in such circumstances being the next captains of industry. More that they are doomed to a life on benefits and their own share of teenage pregnancies.

Hope I am wrong, though...
I meant me, but you are welcome to join me down here. Bring a torch, it's a bit gloomy.
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  #45  
Old 24.03.2009, 15:48
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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How the hell does a country go about cutting the population in half?
1. Improve overall education opportunities (statistically, the better educated a woman, the fewer children she'll have).
2. Comprehensive sex education and access to free contraception, including abortion (as above, the easier it is for a woman to prevent pregnancy, the fewer children she'll have).
3. Remove existing tax incentives for having children.
4. Optionally, introduce tax incentives for NOT having children (rather difficult to do fairly, hence, the "optional" part).

Unfortunately, it would take a few decades, and introduce a whole host of other demographic and economic problems while it progresses (until equilibrium is reached again), but it's certainly quite doable, without even needing to take any drastic (or "inhumane") steps.

#1 and #2 are the most important. Generally speaking, it comes down to the ladies - the better educated they are, the better their opportunities at finding work outside the kitchen, and the easier it is for them to avoid childbirth, then the more likely they are not to have children (and in particular, to not have any more than two).
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  #46  
Old 24.03.2009, 15:49
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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I never understood why we can't control the population size of any country. Poor people make plenty of babies. Then people are getting way too old. Whole civilizations get uprooted and move elsewhere. In short it is a bloody mess. Why are we so many all of a sudden anyway
Massive decrease in fatality rates (particularly amongst the young).
Massive increase in food production.

Basically, it's gotten a a helluva lot harder to die, and a helluva lot easier to live.
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  #47  
Old 24.03.2009, 15:58
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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Maybe I am a pessimist, piffed off because of the dreary weather we are having but I can't see offspring created in such circumstances being the next captains of industry. More that they are doomed to a life on benefits and their own share of teenage pregnancies.

Hope I am wrong, though...
depends on the parents... I was up the duff at 19, but have always worked and never claimed benefits..I am doing ok for myself now - setting an example for my son (who thinks it is odd that some people dont want to work)
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  #48  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:06
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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1. Improve overall education opportunities (statistically, the better educated a woman, the fewer children she'll have).
2. Comprehensive sex education and access to free contraception, including abortion (as above, the easier it is for a woman to prevent pregnancy, the fewer children she'll have).
3. Remove existing tax incentives for having children.
4. Optionally, introduce tax incentives for NOT having children (rather difficult to do fairly, hence, the "optional" part).

Unfortunately, it would take a few decades, and introduce a whole host of other demographic and economic problems while it progresses (until equilibrium is reached again), but it's certainly quite doable, without even needing to take any drastic (or "inhumane") steps.

#1 and #2 are the most important. Generally speaking, it comes down to the ladies - the better educated they are, the better their opportunities at finding work outside the kitchen, and the easier it is for them to avoid childbirth, then the more likely they are not to have children (and in particular, to not have any more than two).
I agree with all of this, but the big elephant in the room is immigration, especially from developing countries. In most Western European countries, birth rates for native women have plateaued or are even decreasing, but newly-arrived immigrant women's birth rates are still high, since they weren't educated in the West.
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  #49  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:11
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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1. Improve overall education opportunities (statistically, the better educated a woman, the fewer children she'll have).
2. Comprehensive sex education and access to free contraception, including abortion (as above, the easier it is for a woman to prevent pregnancy, the fewer children she'll have).
3. Remove existing tax incentives for having children.
4. Optionally, introduce tax incentives for NOT having children (rather difficult to do fairly, hence, the "optional" part).

Sounds like social engineering theory. I don't think a democratic population is so easily manageable. It might work in a totalitarian society, but so would a host of other solutions.

Does this have anything to do with Jonathan Porritt's platform, or is this something you made up?
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  #50  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:15
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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Sounds like social engineering theory. I don't think a democratic population is so easily manageable. It might work in a totalitarian society, but so would a host of other solutions.

Does this have anything to do with Jonathan Porritt's platform, or is this something you made up?
It seems to be less social engineering and more reallocating incentives. Currently, in the UK, the incentives are stacked towards staying off the job scene and popping out kids. If the incentives leaned a bit more the other way, you would see a different trend.
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  #51  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:16
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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Sounds like social engineering theory. I don't think a democratic population is so easily manageable. It might work in a totalitarian society, but so would a host of other solutions.

Does this have anything to do with Jonathan Porritt's platform, or is this something you made up?
It's what's been happening in most secular countries with an educated populace. Coincidentally, the country with the highest birth rate in the EU, Ireland, just happens to be the most religious, and one where contraception is looked down upon.
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  #52  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:19
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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I agree with all of this, but the big elephant in the room is immigration, especially from developing countries. In most Western European countries, birth rates for native women have plateaued or are even decreasing, but newly-arrived immigrant women's birth rates are still high, since they weren't educated in the West.
I'm not convinced that education necessarily means less children. I could see how there is such a trend under present circumstances. But this is a new trend that is particular to the kind of economy we have had. Education has afforded women more alternatives with the kind of life they lead, based on yesterday's economy. There are no gaurantees we will have the same circumstances in the decades to come, so the basic assumption may be quite off.
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  #53  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:20
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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I agree with all of this, but the big elephant in the room is immigration, especially from developing countries. In most Western European countries, birth rates for native women have plateaued or are even decreasing, but newly-arrived immigrant women's birth rates are still high, since they weren't educated in the West.
Those higher birth rates will also drop as the immigrants assimilate - and, of course, if you don't let any more in, then the "problem" solves itself.

Ultimately, a country is under no obligation to allow _any_ immigration, at all, so I'm not sure it deserves to be called the "elephant" in the room. Expect to see lots of countries tightening the immigration "holes" (like "family reunions") as this economic crisis really starts to hit, as well, and focus primarily on immigration for addressing skills shortages and humanitarian problems.
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  #54  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:24
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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I'm not convinced that education necessarily means less children. I could see how there is such a trend under present circumstances. But this is a new trend that is particular to the kind of economy we have had. Education has afforded women more alternatives with the kind of life they lead, based on yesterday's economy. There are no gaurantees we will have the same circumstances in the decades to come, so the basic assumption may be quite off.
Like with global warming, even if the basic assumption is off, the solutions offered (conservation, fuel efficiency, etc. or educating women) can only do good. It's a "doesn't hurt to try" situation if there ever was one. You can blast and be skeptical about the science behind it all all you want, but the alternative, which is basically doing nothing, doesn't help anyone.
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  #55  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:25
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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Those higher birth rates will also drop as the immigrants assimilate - and, of course, if you don't let any more in, then the "problem" solves itself.

Ultimately, a country is under no obligation to allow _any_ immigration, at all, so I'm not sure it deserves to be called the "elephant" in the room. Expect to see lots of countries tightening the immigration "holes" (like "family reunions") as this economic crisis really starts to hit, as well, and focus primarily on immigration for addressing skills shortages and humanitarian problems.
I've got my naturalization interview on Monday, so let's hope it doesn't happen too soon.
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  #56  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:30
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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Like with global warming, even if the basic assumption is off, the solutions offered (conservation, fuel efficiency, etc. or educating women) can only do good. It's a "doesn't hurt to try" situation if there ever was one. You can blast and be skeptical about the science behind it all all you want, but the alternative, which is basically doing nothing, doesn't help anyone.

Well, it depends on what the base problem to solve is. For one, there isn't a consensus on how the problem is defined. As simple statement by an advisor to Gordon Brown, a green at that, is hardly convincing nor compelling. We have the same issue with global warming. There are wild eyed people going around saying "We have to do something", when its not even clear what the problem is, nor where it originates. So I imagine many will resist efforts at social engineering for its own sake.
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  #57  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:31
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

Originally planned by the Tories in the eighties as a job creation scheme, perhaps this could be the solution?

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  #58  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:35
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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Sounds like social engineering theory.
Right. Better education and healthcare is "social engineering".

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I don't think a democratic population is so easily manageable.
Women having fewer babies when they have life opportunities that extend outside of the bedroom and kitchen, is just what happens. It's not "managed", "engineered", or anything else (in my experience, most women at this point go "well, duh"). Indeed, in most western countries it's become a "problem", since the relatively well-educated, financially secure majority of women aren't even reproducing at replacement rates. Hence, the increase in tax incentives in several countries (eg: Australia introduced a "baby bonus") to encourage them to have kids. That is the "social engineering" you're looking for.

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Does this have anything to do with Jonathan Porritt's platform, or is this something you made up?
I'd never even heard of the bloke until an hour or so ago, but it's not exactly a set of guidelines that's difficult to come up with, once you have even the slightest acquaintance with the relevant statistics.

With that said, if he's one of these "oh noes the sky is falling because there's too many people" idiots, plus given the fact he's a politician, then it's highly unlikely he's going to be interested in anything that takes multiple generations to come to fruition, like my suggestions would.
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  #59  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:43
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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I'm not convinced that education necessarily means less children.
Whether or not you're "convinced" doesn't really matter. It happens. It's been happening for decades. Outside of any blatant governmental attempts to stack the deck, there's not even the smallest reason to doubt it's going to continue to happen.

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I could see how there is such a trend under present circumstances. But this is a new trend that is particular to the kind of economy we have had. Education has afforded women more alternatives with the kind of life they lead, based on yesterday's economy. There are no gaurantees we will have the same circumstances in the decades to come, so the basic assumption may be quite off.
It's hardly a trend that's only appeared "under present circumstances", it's been tracking quite steadily pretty much since women started having the same work, education and reproductive choices in life as men.

Or to put it more simply, when women are given the opportunity not to spend half their lives pumping out a sprog every few years, then they don't. Ladies, would you agree ?
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  #60  
Old 24.03.2009, 16:43
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Re: UK population must be cut to 30m

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How the hell does a country go about cutting the population in half?
stop reproducing, wait for people to die.
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