Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Off-Topic > Off-Topic > International affairs/politics  
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #201  
Old 10.06.2007, 02:07
Tim's Avatar
Tim Tim is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Herts UK
Posts: 417
Groaned at 0 Times in 0 Posts
Thanked 136 Times in 80 Posts
Tim is considered knowledgeableTim is considered knowledgeableTim is considered knowledgeable
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Is it possible that the emergence of Global Warming has any correlation to the increasing reluctance of men to wear pyjamas to bed in the latter stages of the 20th century?
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Tim for this useful post:
  #202  
Old 11.06.2007, 00:14
Oldhand's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Zürich
Posts: 4,015
Groaned at 18 Times in 17 Posts
Thanked 6,837 Times in 2,059 Posts
Oldhand has a reputation beyond reputeOldhand has a reputation beyond reputeOldhand has a reputation beyond reputeOldhand has a reputation beyond reputeOldhand has a reputation beyond reputeOldhand has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Tim darlin, i reckon you've got it nailed!

So sad this guy is leaving us
Reply With Quote
  #203  
Old 11.06.2007, 17:38
Colonelboris's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southampton, UK
Posts: 1,137
Groaned at 17 Times in 17 Posts
Thanked 1,273 Times in 671 Posts
Colonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
No they don't. From this year's IPCC report, in the FAQ section:

The differences in radiative forcing estimates between the present day and the start of the industrial era for solar irradiance changes and volcanoes are both very small compared to the differ-ences in radiative forcing estimated to have resulted from human activities. As a result, in today’s atmosphere, the radiative forcing from human activities is much more important for current and future climate change than the estimated radiative forcing from changes in natural processes.

Also, I looked at a spreadsheet of the actual data used for the various climate models used and there is no section set aside for volcano emissions.
Perhaps they should:
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUSM.V52A..07G
That's one fairly quiet Hawaiian volcano which puts out 3.10 million tonnes of CO2 per year, equivalent to 1/1000th of the CO2 output of all electricity production of the USA (link). There are 1500 active volcanoes (link), many of which are much more active than the Hawaiian volcanoes.
OK, so it's not the biggest source and my comparison was wrong, but it is something that should be considered...
Reply With Quote
  #204  
Old 11.06.2007, 18:21
Newbie
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Zurich
Posts: 5
Groaned at 0 Times in 0 Posts
Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
SarahA has no particular reputation at present
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

just stumbled upon this thread and I thought for those of you interested, this is the best page for the science behind CO2 and climate change:

http://www.realclimate.org/
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank SarahA for this useful post:
  #205  
Old 12.06.2007, 12:28
Colonelboris's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southampton, UK
Posts: 1,137
Groaned at 17 Times in 17 Posts
Thanked 1,273 Times in 671 Posts
Colonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Certainly a lot of good data on there. I just get annoyed with people hijacking global warming as a stick to beat others with (seen it on other forums...) and when people (mostly journalists) take the Michael Moore approach to the figures - take the worst case scenario in each example and multiply that through the next worst case scenario to get a hugely inflated figure, then present it as fact. A lot of the real journo scare stories depend on the melting of the entire Antarctic sheet, which isn't likely, even in most of the top-end estimates of how the Earth's warming.
Quicker we get fusion going, the better.
__________________
New book out now: European Bird Names: A Translation Guide.
www.tonykeenebirds,co,uk - photos, paintings and drawings of Swiss, Australian, NZ and British birds
Reply With Quote
  #206  
Old 12.06.2007, 14:48
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
Certainly a lot of good data on there. I just get annoyed with people hijacking global warming as a stick to beat others with (seen it on other forums...) and when people (mostly journalists) take the Michael Moore approach to the figures - take the worst case scenario in each example and multiply that through the next worst case scenario to get a hugely inflated figure, then present it as fact. A lot of the real journo scare stories depend on the melting of the entire Antarctic sheet, which isn't likely, even in most of the top-end estimates of how the Earth's warming.
Quicker we get fusion going, the better.
Yup I agree fusion is the answer, govt's should be collectively ploughing money into it bringing forward the date.

It's the only permanent solution, clean, cheap resource costs compared to costs for electicity production as a ratio.

They should then publish the technology on the internet for free, increasing uptake in 3rd world countries reducing future use of fossil alternatives.

There are maps showing the reduction in the arctic ice sheet over 30 years and there is a definate difference! Googling it should suffice.
Reply With Quote
  #207  
Old 12.06.2007, 15:27
Colonelboris's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southampton, UK
Posts: 1,137
Groaned at 17 Times in 17 Posts
Thanked 1,273 Times in 671 Posts
Colonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Indeed, there's no doubt it's shrinking, but the bit that woul cause really (really, really) bad sea-level rises is very unlikely to melt as it's not near the edges, but over the pole, so a hell of a lot colder.
Reply With Quote
  #208  
Old 13.06.2007, 01:05
BeastOfBodmin's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Zürich
Posts: 875
Groaned at 3 Times in 2 Posts
Thanked 352 Times in 230 Posts
BeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond reputeBeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond reputeBeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond reputeBeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
Perhaps they should:
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUSM.V52A..07G
That's one fairly quiet Hawaiian volcano which puts out 3.10 million tonnes of CO2 per year, equivalent to 1/1000th of the CO2 output of all electricity production of the USA (link). There are 1500 active volcanoes (link), many of which are much more active than the Hawaiian volcanoes.
OK, so it's not the biggest source and my comparison was wrong, but it is something that should be considered...
After I posted that I thought a bit more about the engineering challenges of putting carbon sequestration and capture (CSC) kit across the open maw of an active volcano.

But then I thought "what if it goes off in a Mount St Helens way?". At this point a lot more stuff would be emitted in a short space of time than is usual. But the CSC kit would probably be slagged just at the time when it was most needed.

Can you tell I used to read Science Fiction?
Reply With Quote
  #209  
Old 13.06.2007, 01:16
BeastOfBodmin's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Zürich
Posts: 875
Groaned at 3 Times in 2 Posts
Thanked 352 Times in 230 Posts
BeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond reputeBeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond reputeBeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond reputeBeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
Certainly a lot of good data on there. I just get annoyed with people hijacking global warming as a stick to beat others with (seen it on other forums...)
Are you saying Real Climate does that? I could not disagree more.

Quote:
View Post
and when people (mostly journalists) take the Michael Moore approach to the figures - take the worst case scenario in each example and multiply that through the next worst case scenario to get a hugely inflated figure, then present it as fact. A lot of the real journo scare stories depend on the melting of the entire Antarctic sheet, which isn't likely, even in most of the top-end estimates of how the Earth's warming.
Then ignore the journos and stick to the facts. The main reason why the climate change debate is becoming politicised is because people use (I was going to say "rely on") the media to tell them what is happening. Even if they wanted to be accurate, the average Sun or Daily Mail hack couldn't accurately report on a given technical issue.

Get as close to the data, not the shite printed in The Sun or 20 Minutes, as you can. Educate yourself as you go along.

Quote:
View Post
Quicker we get fusion going, the better.
You're probably right. I hope the technical challenges can be met by investing more resources. I hope there are no inherent problems with parallelising fusion research. But, since the 1950s, fusion has remained 30 years away.
Reply With Quote
  #210  
Old 13.06.2007, 01:24
BeastOfBodmin's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Zürich
Posts: 875
Groaned at 3 Times in 2 Posts
Thanked 352 Times in 230 Posts
BeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond reputeBeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond reputeBeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond reputeBeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
Indeed, there's no doubt it's shrinking, but the bit that woul cause really (really, really) bad sea-level rises is very unlikely to melt as it's not near the edges, but over the pole, so a hell of a lot colder.
The glaciers move from the poles out to the sea. The ice shelves are thought to hold back the rate of flow of glaciers. This appears to still be a matter for debate, scientfically speaking: Ice Sheets and Sea Level Rise: Model Failure is the Key Issue

Reply With Quote
  #211  
Old 13.06.2007, 11:08
Colonelboris's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southampton, UK
Posts: 1,137
Groaned at 17 Times in 17 Posts
Thanked 1,273 Times in 671 Posts
Colonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Certainly wasn't having a pop at real climate, more at the 'well, my car does 1 mpg more than yours, so obviously, I'm a better person...' type of thing.
Being (stuck) in chemistry, it gives you an idea of how funding processes work and sometimes, bigger results get more funding. Just makes me wonder if some of the top-end estimates carry this in mind... Not everyone in every field is entirely honest and it's something I think might occur in odd cases.
Reply With Quote
  #212  
Old 13.06.2007, 11:40
Newbie
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Zurich
Posts: 5
Groaned at 0 Times in 0 Posts
Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
SarahA has no particular reputation at present
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

There isn't a lot of "big money" in climate change research if you aren't being funded to dissent by the AAPG, despite anything Michael Crichton would like you to believe.
Reply With Quote
  #213  
Old 10.07.2007, 13:04
chemgoddess's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: somewhere, USA
Posts: 1,347
Groaned at 41 Times in 37 Posts
Thanked 950 Times in 459 Posts
chemgoddess has an excellent reputationchemgoddess has an excellent reputationchemgoddess has an excellent reputationchemgoddess has an excellent reputation
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Hmmm. . . . first snowfall in Buenos Aires since 1918.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070709/..._historic_snow
Reply With Quote
  #214  
Old 10.07.2007, 13:30
Colonelboris's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southampton, UK
Posts: 1,137
Groaned at 17 Times in 17 Posts
Thanked 1,273 Times in 671 Posts
Colonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
There isn't a lot of "big money" in climate change research if you aren't being funded to dissent by the AAPG, despite anything Michael Crichton would like you to believe.
So what if you want to look at other factors, but don't want petrol money? Good luck.

There's a few things that never seem to be addressed in the calculations.

1) (Going back upthread) Volcanic CO2 output (equivalent to the electricity production of the USA - you wouldn't leave that out, so why this?).

2) Natural warming after the Little Ice Age - we're still coming out of it and I've only ever seen this mentioned once in a paper.

3) Effect of paving over areas of land. At times, London is nearly 8 degrees C warmer at night than the surrounding countryside due to the tarmac and concrete holding onto a lot of heat that would otherwise be reflected by grass and leaves. Think about how much of the world is now paved or has more heat-absorbant soil showing through where there were once trees.

I'm not sure if anyone's done any studies on the effect that deforesting South america has had, but there's a UN plan for reforestation that should be able to negate human CO2 output with a not unrealistic number of trees.
http://www.unep.org/billiontreecampaign/
__________________
New book out now: European Bird Names: A Translation Guide.
www.tonykeenebirds,co,uk - photos, paintings and drawings of Swiss, Australian, NZ and British birds

Last edited by Colonelboris; 10.07.2007 at 13:33. Reason: spelling...
Reply With Quote
  #215  
Old 10.07.2007, 13:48
Polorise's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: about there
Posts: 2,738
Groaned at 25 Times in 25 Posts
Thanked 2,325 Times in 1,259 Posts
Polorise has a reputation beyond reputePolorise has a reputation beyond reputePolorise has a reputation beyond reputePolorise has a reputation beyond reputePolorise has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
1) (Going back upthread) Volcanic CO2 output (equivalent to the electricity production of the USA - you wouldn't leave that out, so why this?).
strange how the boffins are prepared to skew things to their own personal way of thinking : Volcanic CO2

Quote:
"Comparison of CO2 emissions from volcanoes vs. human activities
Scientists have calculated that volcanoes emit between about 130-230 million tonnes (145-255 million tons) of CO2 into the atmosphere every year (Gerlach, 1999, 1992). This estimate includes both subaerial and submarine volcanoes, about in equal amounts. Emissions of CO2 by human activities, including fossil fuel burning, cement production, and gas flaring, amount to about 22 billion tonnes per year (24 billion tons) ( Marland, et al., 1998). Human activities release more than 150 times the amount of CO2 emitted by volcanoes--the equivalent of nearly 17,000 additional volcanoes like Kilauea (Kilauea emits about 13.2 million tonnes/year)."




which makes it all the more difficult for thickies like me & Boris Johnson to formulate a coherent opinion .....
Reply With Quote
  #216  
Old 10.07.2007, 13:58
Colonelboris's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southampton, UK
Posts: 1,137
Groaned at 17 Times in 17 Posts
Thanked 1,273 Times in 671 Posts
Colonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

that's my point - you wouldn't leave out something that accounts for 1/150th of output if it was an artificial source, but it's funny how that sort of thing can be happily overlooked when you want to...
Reply With Quote
  #217  
Old 10.07.2007, 15:12
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: UK - Manchester
Posts: 702
Groaned at 1 Time in 1 Post
Thanked 65 Times in 55 Posts
ExoticLatic has no particular reputation at present
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Do you really think this has not being taken into account in the global models available to researchers, like solar activity and natural cycles? I'm always surprised when I see those long lists that sceptics posts, I guess they imagine the topmost climate scientists looking at them and go "Duh, we forgot all about the sun solar flares, let's start again!"
Reply With Quote
  #218  
Old 10.07.2007, 21:46
Lou's Avatar
Lou Lou is offline
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Zurich
Posts: 3,778
Groaned at 9 Times in 9 Posts
Thanked 3,227 Times in 1,474 Posts
Lou has a reputation beyond reputeLou has a reputation beyond reputeLou has a reputation beyond reputeLou has a reputation beyond reputeLou has a reputation beyond reputeLou has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

I found this recent article from the BBC to be interesting. It states that Greenland was once covered in forests of Spruce & Pine with all the insect life that goes with them. It also says that the temperature was 5 degrees warmer than today. The forests grew 450,000 years ago & I don't think humans were around to heat up the planet then.
Reply With Quote
  #219  
Old 10.07.2007, 22:09
Colonelboris's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southampton, UK
Posts: 1,137
Groaned at 17 Times in 17 Posts
Thanked 1,273 Times in 671 Posts
Colonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond reputeColonelboris has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
Do you really think this has not being taken into account in the global models available to researchers, like solar activity and natural cycles? I'm always surprised when I see those long lists that sceptics posts, I guess they imagine the topmost climate scientists looking at them and go "Duh, we forgot all about the sun solar flares, let's start again!"
Actually, on occasion, yes. The part I mentioned about the warming from the Little ice Age was actually from a paper that was in a climatology journal which recommended including it or it may throw out a lot of predictions. I didn't just make the idea up. Also, mentioned further upthread was the fact that in that particular model volcanoes were not included as part of the natural CO2 output. I've seen paving mentioned as a factor in local heating, but again, not seen it included in models, so I don't know the effect. I just wanted to know if models do or do not include these things as it appears they have the potential to have quite an impact on the calculations, but don't appear to be addressed.
As for scepticism - what's wrong with it as long as you're not 'la la la - I can't hear you' over it. The major thing I'm sceptical over is the ability to get emissions down - it's not going to happen, even with really draconian measures. Just for example: The CO2 reduction that would be gained from full implementation of the Kyoto treaty (cost - an estimated $13 trillion) by 2050 is more than offset by the people in expected population growth of China just breathing. The best method of reducing CO2 is either find new power sources (I'm not on about renewables - it just won't cut it by the middle of the next century) or work on population control.
__________________
New book out now: European Bird Names: A Translation Guide.
www.tonykeenebirds,co,uk - photos, paintings and drawings of Swiss, Australian, NZ and British birds
Reply With Quote
  #220  
Old 11.07.2007, 10:35
Blonaybear's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Blonay
Posts: 1,595
Groaned at 4 Times in 4 Posts
Thanked 836 Times in 432 Posts
Blonaybear has a reputation beyond reputeBlonaybear has a reputation beyond reputeBlonaybear has a reputation beyond reputeBlonaybear has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

In todays news -

LONDON - The sun's changing energy levels are not to blame for recent global warming and, if anything, solar variations over the past 20 years should have had a cooling effect, scientists said on Wednesday.

Full story here.

Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
climate change, climategate, co2, global warming




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT +2. The time now is 17:06.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0