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Old 19.05.2021, 15:42
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Looking historically, do you think it is normal for the Poles to be icebound?

The Earth has been free of ice at the poles for about 80% of the last 540 million years and reached the highest peak average global temperature of 28 degrees C at the end of the Permian Period.
If we go for the geologic time scale, yes. If there were no natural ice left in the world, the sea would rise 60-70m. Let's apply an engineering safety margin of ~2 and that yields 150m max. It's not the end of the world. Things will change, fortunes will decay others will rise, same for societies, but I guess as species we will be still around.
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Old 19.05.2021, 15:45
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

That's what I never understand about the argument that millions of years ago it was warmer. Who cares? There never have been 8 bn people here who were heating the place like it is a pizza oven. The question is not whether the planet will survive, but how many of us. Look at India, large parts of the Middle East - there is 2 bn people living on land that might be unhabitable in a few decades.
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Old 19.05.2021, 15:50
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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If humans really wan't to protect planet Earth then they have to do two simple things.

1- Go Vegan
2- Stop reproducing
1/ you can still enjoy Incredibles meals.
2/ Doesn't mean you have to stop having fun

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Old 19.05.2021, 16:01
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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If humans really wan't to protect planet Earth then they have to do two simple things.

1- Go Vegan
2- Stop reproducing

Everything else is just nicely packaged politics and virtue signalling.
1 - Cannibalism
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Old 19.05.2021, 16:16
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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The question is not whether the planet will survive, but how many of us.
Not how many of "us" but how many of "them"; however far into the future any real consequences occur none of "us" will be around to see it.
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Old 19.05.2021, 16:22
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Looking historically, do you think it is normal for the Poles to be icebound?
Not to mention the Lithuanians.
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Old 19.05.2021, 16:22
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Not how many of "us" but how many of "them"; however far into the future any real consequences occur none of "us" will be around to see it.
Don't bet on it.
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Old 19.05.2021, 18:15
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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1 - Cannibalism
Cannibalism and going Vegan at the same time must assume that some people are cabbages.
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Old 19.05.2021, 18:45
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Not how many of "us" but how many of "them"; however far into the future any real consequences occur none of "us" will be around to see it.
I count my kids and future grand kids as part of "us" not "them".
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Old 19.05.2021, 20:02
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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If we go for the geologic time scale, yes. If there were no natural ice left in the world, the sea would rise 60-70m. Let's apply an engineering safety margin of ~2 and that yields 150m max. It's not the end of the world. Things will change, fortunes will decay others will rise, same for societies, but I guess as species we will be still around.
Over millions of years, our world got colder and warmer multiple times; it is somewhat optimistic to believe if we stop burning fossil fuels we can bend climate changes to our will.
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Old 19.05.2021, 21:15
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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We and our agriculture didn't exist at the end of the Permian period.

At a global average 28°C (haven't checked the accuracy), humans would only be able to survive at all towards the poles. Try squeezing 8 billion into that sort of land area.
Humanity is very resilient, we managed to survive the last ice age and at the same time multiply and spread out worldwide.
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Old 19.05.2021, 21:36
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Cannibalism and going Vegan at the same time must assume that some people are cabbages.
Not that, but a vegan is probably the best to eat if you're a cannibal.
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Old 19.05.2021, 22:24
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Over millions of years, our world got colder and warmer multiple times; it is somewhat optimistic to believe if we stop burning fossil fuels we can bend climate changes to our will.
Climate has always been changing, but never as fast as today. Also, mankind caused a rapid climate change by emitting gigantic amounts of GHG from burning fossil fuels, so why would stopping these emissions not help? Bending to out will is a different matter, if we could everybody would have Northern Californian climate.
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Old 20.05.2021, 07:39
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Not that, but a vegan is probably the best to eat if you're a cannibal.
Packed in plastic and labeled as Bio/Grass fed/Free range.

Everything for the right price.
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Old 20.05.2021, 08:03
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Humanity is very resilient, we managed to survive the last ice age and at the same time multiply and spread out worldwide.
Barely. The human population dropped to as low as 20,000 individuals. The rapid increases only came with the invention of agriculture some 10,000 years ago, just after the end of the last ice age.
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Old 20.05.2021, 08:42
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Barely. The human population dropped to as low as 20,000 individuals. The rapid increases only came with the invention of agriculture some 10,000 years ago, just after the end of the last ice age.
Pity we survived to infest the planet.

Tom
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Old 20.05.2021, 08:59
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Barely. The human population dropped to as low as 20,000 individuals. The rapid increases only came with the invention of agriculture some 10,000 years ago, just after the end of the last ice age.
How many would survive today?

It's an interesting thought-experiment, for sure.

Without a functioning supply-chain, how much of our high-tech world would quickly deteriorate back to 15th-century level (or below)?

Maybe they do a part two of "Greenland" next year?
;-)

The ending for part one was a bit too optimistic and timid IMO.
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Old 20.05.2021, 15:53
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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How many would survive today?

It's an interesting thought-experiment, for sure.

Without a functioning supply-chain, how much of our high-tech world would quickly deteriorate back to 15th-century level (or below)?

Maybe they do a part two of "Greenland" next year?
;-)

The ending for part one was a bit too optimistic and timid IMO.
Or bellow. I don't think there could be anything resembling Renaissance for instance...
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Old 20.05.2021, 16:17
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Barely. The human population dropped to as low as 20,000 individuals. The rapid increases only came with the invention of agriculture some 10,000 years ago, just after the end of the last ice age.
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How many would survive today?

It's an interesting thought-experiment, for sure.
Yes, but not really valid within the parameters of 'today'. Any major change to ice-age conditions is going to take hundred or thousands of years, during which time the human race, already more technologically advanced than today, would be able to invest a lot of time and effort into developing measures for survival.
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Old 20.05.2021, 17:50
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Without a functioning supply-chain, how much of our high-tech world would quickly deteriorate back to 15th-century level (or below)?
Before long, 15th century level will seem like pure luxury. Back then there were clean rivers people could drink from, and wild animals galore to hunt and eat. Forests to burn for fuel. Intact topsoil for agriculture. There was still wilderness/frontier (free land!) and there weren't 8 billion of us fighting over resources.

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Yes, but not really valid within the parameters of 'today'. Any major change to ice-age conditions is going to take hundred or thousands of years, during which time the human race, already more technologically advanced than today, would be able to invest a lot of time and effort into developing measures for survival.
Our technology has driven us at an exponential rate to a state of severe ecological overshoot, but don't worry, we've got technology!

It's the answer to Fermi's Paradox- "But where is everybody?" - we haven't witnessed ET's because any civilization that gets to the point of industrialization will eventually die in it's own toxic mess before being able to spread out to other parts of space.

Paraphrased from the late Al Bartlett:

Let's say two yeast in a bottle of sugar water start reproducing at 12:00 noon. The population doubles every minute, and the bottle will be full (low on resources, environment too toxic, etc) at 1:00.

At what time will the bottle be half full?? 12:59.


That's where we're at right now. It's the equivalent of 12:59 and we're looking around and thinking: 'Geez - it's starting to get a little crowded in here, a little bit toxic. But we've been doing so well, been very successful indeed, for the past 59 generations - so surely we'll be fine for at least that many more. We're smart! We've got tech!'

we're doomed
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Last edited by pilatus1; 20.05.2021 at 18:14. Reason: add link
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