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  #421  
Old 20.07.2008, 11:27
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I have recently read a very amazing book on this subject by Bjorn Lomborn called 'The Sceptical Environmentalist'.
I think it's Bjørn Lomborg. The book was certainly controversial. I haven't read it. Out of interest, does he mention the discount rate and model(s) he uses to arrive at his cost estimates?
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  #422  
Old 20.07.2008, 11:56
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Mrs Boris,

Thank you for the book details, will have a look at that.
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  #423  
Old 20.07.2008, 12:12
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I think it's Bjørn Lomborg. The book was certainly controversial. I haven't read it. Out of interest, does he mention the discount rate and model(s) he uses to arrive at his cost estimates?
Yes, sorry, I just noticed I spelt his name wrong! There are countless sources, models, and figures. He backs up everything he writes. You will probably have to look at the book to get a good idea of the vast number of sources, but the figure he refers to in the text I quoted from is figure 160 source DICE 1999, Burtraw et al. 1999:7-8, BEA 200 1b-c; and figure 161 source: Nordhaus and Boyer 2000:7:29, 31, 8:24.
If that's any help?
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  #424  
Old 20.07.2008, 12:21
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

http://www.lomborg.com/

Interesting web site too.
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  #425  
Old 20.07.2008, 17:00
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Some good news

Nissan is testing electric cars in Israel and is planning to sell them to the public in 2011.
For 2012 they plan to do a global roll out.

Is this the break through?





It could well be it!
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  #426  
Old 20.07.2008, 17:06
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

I'd like to think so, but doubt it.
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  #427  
Old 20.07.2008, 17:19
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Some good news

Nissan is testing electric cars in Israel and is planning to sell them to the public in 2011.
For 2012 they plan to do a global roll out.

Is this the break through?
The problem with electric cars is range (short) and recharge time (very long). They're ok if you live in a city and are just using it for the daily commute (in which case why not just use public transport ?), but otherwise they're crap.
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Old 20.07.2008, 17:21
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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but otherwise they're crap.
So far, but I live in hope that this will change dramatically sooner than later.
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Old 20.07.2008, 17:54
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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So far, but I live in hope that this will change dramatically sooner than later.
Unfortunately there are some rather significant physical limitations on solving the problem. Not only in terms of battery technology, but also electrical infrastucture (both within the home and the grid in general) and generation capabilities.

Things like fuel cells and biofuels, are the future of cars - at least for the next 50 - 100 years.
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Old 20.07.2008, 18:07
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

I just took a look at that web site. Looks good. I would like to read his other books. Reading The Sceptical Environmentalist has really made me realise how much the information we are fed by the media has been carefully chosen to provide an exciting-to-read worst case scenario. Everyone knows that people much prefer to hear and read about bad news, so it makes sense for the media to make stories as dramatic as possible. That is why when the media are given a choice between the low estimate of temperature increase (1.4 degrees C) and the high estimate (5.8 degrees C) they will chose the highest every time, as a headline like 'Dramatic and catastrophic global temperature increase' sounds better than 'Earth to get a bit warmer'. The media, to a great extent, write what they think we want to read. Otherwise newspapers wouldn't sell.

I did not previously know that global warming does not affect everywhere equally.
p299:
'It is true that the temperature has increased, although mainly at night, in the winter, and in colder places. Such reduction in cold extremes without increasing heat extremes has in many respects been beneficial, but if the warming continues, eventually heat extremes will also start to take their toll'.

I think one of the most interesting aspects of global warming is that the world could actually benefit from a SMALL increase in temperature.
p. 299:
'With continued fossil fuel use, increasing CO2 concentrations will fertilize the globe. A test of six different vegetation models using the IS92a scenario shows that global biomass will increase more than 40 percent over the century, almost back to prehistoric levels. ( . . .) It is worth noting that the expected increase in NPP [Net Primary Production or Earth's food resource) from increased CO2 is about 90 billion tons or about 50 percent more than the entire human appropriation'.

And what about cold-related deaths?
P. 291
'It is estimated that about 9,000 fewer people would die in the United Kingdom each winter if there were greenhouse warming'.

I think he is very brave, but very sensible, to consider global warming from every possible aspect, including how it could work in our favour. I wish all governments would look at the full picture, as they would then be able to make much more informed opinions and actions.

I believe we need to seriously continue researching and funding energy sources that are renewable. We won't have to use fossile fuels forever, we can find something better. As he says in this book, 'the stone age did not end for lack of stone'.

I was always lead to believe that solar energy is a waste of time, so I was very surprised, and impressed, to read (on p. 133) that

'even with our relatively ineffective solar cells, a square area in the tropics 469 km (291 miles) on each side - 0.15 percent of Earth's land mass - could supply all our current energy requirements. In principle this area could be placed in the Sahara Desert (of which it would take up 2.6 percent) or at sea. In reality, of course, one would not build a single, central power plant, but the example underscores partly how little space really is necessary to cover our energy needs'.

Food for thought.
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  #431  
Old 20.07.2008, 18:15
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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The problem with electric cars is range (short) and recharge time (very long). They're ok if you live in a city and are just using it for the daily commute (in which case why not just use public transport ?), but otherwise they're crap.
Have a look at the videos:





maybe that will change your mind :P
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  #432  
Old 20.07.2008, 18:21
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I was always lead to believe that solar energy is a waste of time, so I was very surprised, and impressed, to read (on p. 133) that

'even with our relatively ineffective solar cells, a square area in the tropics 469 km (291 miles) on each side - 0.15 percent of Earth's land mass - could supply all our current energy requirements. In principle this area could be placed in the Sahara Desert (of which it would take up 2.6 percent) or at sea. In reality, of course, one would not build a single, central power plant, but the example underscores partly how little space really is necessary to cover our energy needs'.

Food for thought.
The trouble with Solar is that it's only really good for 6-7 hours a day and only when the sun is out. It's not suitable for baseload power. Wind has the same problem.

EDIT: Solar isn't a bad option for supplementing your own power usage though (eg: panels on the roof). Again, however, the time restrictions come into play - most people want their electricity at night, not during the day.

Nuclear is pretty much the only realistic option for environmentally-friendly baseload power generation for the forseeable future. Especially if everyone gets electric cars .
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  #433  
Old 20.07.2008, 18:39
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Have a look at the videos:

maybe that will change your mind :P
Not really .

100 - 200km is not very far and the battery pack exchange locations will be quite limited (and will remain so for a very long time).

Additionally, with regard to the batteries. They will wear at uneven rates - how is the economics of battery pack replacement going to be handled ? They're also rather nasty - from an environmental perspective - to create and dispose of.

Like I said, electric cars aren't really good for much that public transport can't do better (or at least as well). They're certainly not going to be a viable option in countries of any significant size (and that's just raw numbers, without taking people's perceptions into account - eg: if you run out of fuel, you can at least get to the nearest petrol station and bring back a jerry can, but if your giant battery dies, you're screwed).

IMHO the time and money being put into electric cars would be far, far more productively spend on fuel alternatives that can (at least somewhat) leverage the massive amounts of existing infrastructure, and improving public transport.
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  #434  
Old 20.07.2008, 18:39
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Nuclear is pretty much the only realistic option for environmentally-friendly baseload power generation for the forseeable future. Especially if everyone gets electric cars .
Nuclear sounds like a very good option to me, especially reactors that can use uranium 238 (much more abundant than uranium 235). I think many people are so against nuclear power though because of the radioactive waste it produces.
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Old 20.07.2008, 18:49
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Not really .

100 - 200km is not very far and the battery pack exchange locations will be quite limited (and will remain so for a very long time).

Additionally, with regard to the batteries. They will wear at uneven rates - how is the economics of battery pack replacement going to be handled ? They're also rather nasty - from an environmental perspective - to create and dispose of.

Like I said, electric cars aren't really good for much that public transport can't do better (or at least as well). They're certainly not going to be a viable option in countries of any significant size (and that's just raw numbers, without taking people's perceptions into account - eg: if you run out of fuel, you can at least get to the nearest petrol station and bring back a jerry can, but if your giant battery dies, you're screwed).

IMHO the time and money being put into electric cars would be far, far more productively spend on fuel alternatives that can (at least somewhat) leverage the massive amounts of existing infrastructure, and improving public transport.
I disagree. Let's wait 5 more years and electric cars will be at least as popular as hybrids today.

have a look at this:



Today, battery technology (Due to laptop battery development) is far more efficient than when the EV1 was built.
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  #436  
Old 20.07.2008, 19:14
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

But electricity and hydrogen are NOT fuels. They are fuel transfers and require manufacture using... what? Oil, gas, nuclear.

Unless Israel has enough sun and low enough average mileages for people to charge they vehicles from solar panels on their garage roof, it is just moving the manufacture of energy to a central factory powered by??

And how will this work in the USA, China, India, Europe?? And what energy is required to make the batteries and dispose of them??
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  #437  
Old 20.07.2008, 19:36
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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....
I think many people are so against nuclear power though because of the radioactive waste it produces.

I think you have a valid point, there... NIMBY and all of that.
To which I might add that building a safe nuclear plant takes something like 10 yrs.
To which I might add that some are concerned that "economic efficiency" may prevail at the expense of, say, overall security of the plant.

Paul
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Old 20.07.2008, 19:40
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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But electricity and hydrogen are NOT fuels. They are fuel transfers and require manufacture using... what? Oil, gas, nuclear.

Unless Israel has enough sun and low enough average mileages for people to charge they vehicles from solar panels on their garage roof, it is just moving the manufacture of energy to a central factory powered by??

And how will this work in the USA, China, India, Europe?? And what energy is required to make the batteries and dispose of them??
Even if the power was generated by coal power plants, electric cars would emit less green house gases than when they were fueled by gasoline. That's because electric motors are much more efficient than combustion motors.

Israel is currently also heavily investing in new solar (possibly also thermal) plants.

On top of that, electricity compared to gasoline is virtually free (Until the Saudis bring down the price of oil again as they did many times before to bankrupt alternative energy technologies).
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  #439  
Old 20.07.2008, 22:29
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Even if the power was generated by coal power plants, electric cars would emit less green house gases than when they were fueled by gasoline. That's because electric motors are much more efficient than combustion motors.

Israel is currently also heavily investing in new solar (possibly also thermal) plants.

On top of that, electricity compared to gasoline is virtually free (Until the Saudis bring down the price of oil again as they did many times before to bankrupt alternative energy technologies).
Of course electric-powered cars produce less - in fact NO green house gasses at all - all the pollutants are made at the coal-fired power station instead.

Switzerland makes 80% of its electricity from pollution-free hydroelectric and the rest from nuclear. So with a range of 200 miles, these electric cars could work here. But what about the rest of the world? A solution has to be practical and work world wide, without putting millions out of work...
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  #440  
Old 20.07.2008, 23:02
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Of course electric-powered cars produce less - in fact NO green house gasses at all - all the pollutants are made at the coal-fired power station instead.
Sorry, I think didn't write it clearly.

"According to the World Resources Institute, EVs recharging from coal-fired plants will reduce CO2 emissions in the country from 17 to 22 percent."

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A solution has to be practical and work world wide, without putting millions out of work...
Please explain, who will it put out of work?
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