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  #461  
Old 21.07.2008, 21:56
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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It's a good thing for you that your bet is vaguely worded.

What happens when there is no more petroleum? There will be no more hybrids, let alone ICE vehicles. Growing crops for fuel is an energetic dead end, which would leave electricity.
Many biofuels are carbon neutral. These are almost certainly what's going to end up powering the majority of vehicles in 20-30 years (although not the ones stupidly being made out of food crops).

The next advance beyond that is likely to be fuel cells, or something similar. You can think of them as batteries if you like .

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I wonder if there is any merit in the idea of battery packs being exchanged in the same way as propane bottles. Or of different capacities.
As I said, the big problem with battery exchange is that the battery represents a non-trivial proportion of the value of the car, and how it wears can differ significantly from one driver to the other. This isn't anything like, say, a gas bottle exchange program, where the bottles are worth basically nothing and it's not really possible to break them in non-obvious ways.

Look, there *might* be some incredible battery technology breakthrough in the near future that increases their energy density and decreases their charging time by an order of magnitude, but I doubt it. Biofuels and hybrid vehicles are feasible today for widespread adoption by the average person. Battery-driven vehicles are 1-2 decades away from this.
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  #462  
Old 21.07.2008, 22:01
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

As I mentioned earlier. Electric cars solely powered by batteries are not 30 years away, but 3. (if you don't believe it do a youtube search on "nissan electric car")
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  #463  
Old 21.07.2008, 23:02
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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As I mentioned earlier. Electric cars solely powered by batteries are not 30 years away, but 3. (if you don't believe it do a youtube search on "nissan electric car")
This car is nowhere near ready for mainstream, typical usage. Not in 3 years, not in 10.

You seem to be misunderstanding my argument. I'm not saying you couldn't build a car powered solely by batteries today, I'm saying that for the average person, such a car would be nearly useless. I'm also saying that this situation is not likely to change outside of a few corner cases (where, as I'd said, you'd almost certainly be better off with better public transport anyway).
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  #464  
Old 21.07.2008, 23:16
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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This car is nowhere near ready for mainstream, typical usage. Not in 3 years, not in 10.

You seem to be misunderstanding my argument. I'm not saying you couldn't build a car powered solely by batteries today, I'm saying that for the average person, such a car would be nearly useless. I'm also saying that this situation is not likely to change outside of a few corner cases (where, as I'd said, you'd almost certainly be better off with better public transport anyway).
The Nissan electric car will be mass produced like the Toyota Prius. It's no concept or trial car.
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  #465  
Old 21.07.2008, 23:40
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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The Nissan electric car will be mass produced like the Toyota Prius. It's no concept or trial car.
I know. My points stand.
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  #466  
Old 21.07.2008, 23:50
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I know. My points stand.
Let's agree to disagree *shakehands
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  #467  
Old 22.07.2008, 07:40
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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The next advance beyond that is likely to be fuel cells, or something similar. You can think of them as batteries if you like .
I don't doubt one day fuel cells will be better commercialise than they are at present. But I am trying not to count on things that aren't yet delivered.

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As I said, the big problem with battery exchange is that the battery represents a non-trivial proportion of the value of the car, and how it wears can differ significantly from one driver to the other. This isn't anything like, say, a gas bottle exchange program, where the bottles are worth basically nothing and it's not really possible to break them in non-obvious ways.
Agreed. I was speculating. I don't actually know any numbers. It would be interesting to know the costs of recycling a battery of type X versus it's kJ/kg and kJ/m^3.

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Look, there *might* be some incredible battery technology breakthrough in the near future that increases their energy density and decreases their charging time by an order of magnitude, but I doubt it.
I don't doubt it. But I wouldn't put money on when it actually happens. Did you know about LiFePO4 for example?

<http://www.englishforum.ch/international-affairs-politics/4867-global-warming-whats-behind-7.html#post102117>

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Biofuels and hybrid vehicles are feasible today for widespread adoption by the average person. Battery-driven vehicles are 1-2 decades away from this.
All the energy sources you mention above are feasible today. I think 10-20 years is too far an horizon. Hybrids, "pure battery" and biofuels all have the same limitation at the moment. i.e. production capacity.

EROI on biofuels is about break-even using current techniques. Since it is also my view that oil will get to $200 a barrel before it goes to $100, and that world peak oil production is within a few (1% - 5%) percent of it's maximum on this planet ever, I don't see much of a future for ICE.
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  #468  
Old 22.07.2008, 07:41
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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And where does electricty come from??
Don't Feed The Troll.
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  #469  
Old 22.07.2008, 08:57
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Don't Feed The Troll.
What kind of cop out answer is that? You state that electricity is the future when there is no more petroleum - and of course natural gas goes hand in hand.

Thus when you look at the figures for Europe and the fact that most electric generation is driven by heat engines. The combustion of fossil fuels supplies most of the heat to these engines.

In 2005, USA produced at least 25% of the world's electricity, and 75% of this is by coal, oil and gas.*

What I am saying is that, as presently generated by the majority of countries, electricity is neither clean, nor does it wean us off fossil fuels. In fact without fossil fuels, electricity is not possible for most countries...

*www.allcountries.org/uscensus/1391_net_electricity_generation_by_type_and.html
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  #470  
Old 22.07.2008, 11:28
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

If you ask me, and you haven’t but I’ll volunteer a couple of thoughts anyway…

The whole Green / Global Warming / CFC / Antarctic melting / Amazon rainforest dying / etc thing is a big subject. And one thread isn’t going to cover it. It might as well be labelled “What’s wrong with the world”. But kudos for trying. And in the spirit of your attempt I ‘ll throw a couple of thoughts your way.

I’m running a corporate away day and there’s about 30 people in a coach heading out of the city to a village pub. 3 people on the coach are American, all three are, shall we say, more republican than democrat but not neo-con. Two of them specifically left America to live in NL so they could marry their non-American partners because the US doesn’t recognise gay marriage. So, you can imagine that I am expecting a general consensus that global warming is bad and using fossil fuels are the cause. It’s a fairly clear and easy case to make and 27 cloggies and swissies on the bus take this as “read”. Imagine my surprise when all three yanks disagree and in various shades go from “its not been proved” to “it’s a natural phenomena (warming)” to “its exaggerated”. Such is the level of argument in the US that 27 Europeans agree and three yanks have different opinions.

Now, as a thought from way out on the left field here… What if 27 Europeans have been brainwashed and one of the yanks has it right? As convinced as I am that I have not been brainwashed and that America is morally corrupt. American’s, or at least these three, were convinced that we 27 Europeans were brainwashed by socialist governments and didn’t understand the issue.

Scary. But I know one thing. Of the 4 opinions on that bus, only 1 was right…

Another piece of US propaganda is of course that cars (electric) are impossible and/or inefficient or whatever. Now its not Toyota that are saying this, its politicians and Dodge, and GM and all that lot. So they are hardly trustworthy, so when I hear people on this thread say 30 years to realise an electric car and I hear 3 from another poster, I could almost guess your nationalities. Personally I don’t know, I think hybrid is going to be the norm and we’ll move to 100% electric as part of the evolution. When we go from one to the other is going to be lead by a myriad of factors, but continued high oil prices will probably be the most influential. There have been electric cars around for at least 40 years (English milk floats, Sinclair C5, “Felix” for example)

That oil and gas and coal are used to power most power stations is hideously embarrassing to the tree-hugging brigade after they stopped governments from building nuclear power plants. Sure, the counter argument is that we should have been looking at re-usable power all along and they are not wrong, its just a pity that it is (a) too late due to the development time and (b) nothing to do with efficient economics.

It should also be remembered that what’s good for LA or Islington is not good for Poke-ville Idaho or Flumserberg. Electric wires over roads indeed!
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  #471  
Old 22.07.2008, 11:56
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

ColonelBoris's idea may seem a little whacky but he is using his imagination & that is where good ideas come from. My Dad is an inventor & some of the ideas he came up with were so off the planet you could never imagine them working but given time and a bit of refining some of the whackiness turned into great ideas which in turn became great products. There has to be a starting point from where to work.

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Electric wires over roads indeed!
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  #472  
Old 22.07.2008, 12:20
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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ColonelBoris's idea may seem a little whacky but he is using his imagination & that is where good ideas come from. My Dad is an inventor & some of the ideas he came up with were so off the planet you could never imagine them working but given time and a bit of refining some of the whackiness turned into great ideas which in turn became great products. There has to be a starting point from where to work.
And like all good ideas - stolen from someone else. Admittedly my idea was to put the cables under the road...

Global Warming - what's behind it?
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  #473  
Old 22.07.2008, 12:40
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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And like all good ideas - stolen from someone else. Admittedly my idea was to put the cables under the road...

Global Warming - what's behind it?
It's a much older idea than that...

Makes me wonder, what if, like the trolley buses here, they had petrol/diesel motors for out-of-town use and an extendable rod for in-town...? Think about how much traffic there is in towns/cities and how long half of it just sits in traffic for and that's a big saving already...

How much trouble would someone get into if they did this today and ran their car off of the tram/trolleybus network in town?
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  #474  
Old 22.07.2008, 12:54
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

For all of you who got your climate change information from Channel 4 :

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7517509.stm

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  #475  
Old 22.07.2008, 13:06
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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For all of you who got your climate change information from Channel 4 :

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7517509.stm

Hmm. So it says that the show didn't have balance and that many of the interviewees were unfairly treated, but doesn't conclusively say the scientific part of the program was wrong. Whether the science of the show is wrong or not, that's not apparently what was in the discussion there, more the breaches of production codes.

F'rinstance:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/e...on/7037671.stm

But it doesn't mean everything in Gore's film was wrong, either...
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  #476  
Old 22.07.2008, 13:18
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Let's agree to disagree *shakehands
Fine by me, but it's not going to make the problems with electric cars go away .
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Old 22.07.2008, 13:39
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I don't doubt one day fuel cells will be better commercialise than they are at present. But I am trying not to count on things that aren't yet delivered.
Yet you're counting on the infrastructure necessary to support widespread electric car use ?

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Agreed. I was speculating. I don't actually know any numbers. It would be interesting to know the costs of recycling a battery of type X versus it's kJ/kg and kJ/m^3.
Recycling is a relatively minor issue. It's convincing people that they won't get ripped off just because they pulled into a "fuelling station". It's convincing station owners of the same thing. It's where to store the thousands of batteries that will need to be kept on hand. It's the electrical requirements of keeping them all charged.


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I don't doubt it. But I wouldn't put money on when it actually happens. Did you know about LiFePO4 for example?
Not specifically, but from Wikipedia reference-linkLithium_iron_phosphate_battery:

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LiFePO4 cells have higher discharge current, very fast charge times (5 minutes), high power density and do not explode under extreme conditions, but have lower voltage and energy density than normal Li-ion cells.
Doesn't sound promising for use in vehicles.

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EROI on biofuels is about break-even using current techniques. Since it is also my view that oil will get to $200 a barrel before it goes to $100, and that world peak oil production is within a few (1% - 5%) percent of it's maximum on this planet ever, I don't see much of a future for ICE.
The single most important thing about biofuels is that they can leverage the massive existing investment in infrastructure (just stop and really think about the supporting infrastructure for petrol for a few minutes). They can, relatively speaking, just drop right into existing distribution channels, storage facilities, delivery points and, most importantly, vehicles.

Constrast this to electric vehicles, which need nearly all of the above created from scratch. In tiny places like Israel, this might just be feasible (though you're limited to driving within that country). Just about anywhere bigger, it's not (at least not without significant economic cost).
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  #478  
Old 22.07.2008, 13:42
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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It's a much older idea than that...

Makes me wonder, what if, like the trolley buses here, they had petrol/diesel motors for out-of-town use and an extendable rod for in-town...? Think about how much traffic there is in towns/cities and how long half of it just sits in traffic for and that's a big saving already...
We could call them.... hybrid cars !
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  #479  
Old 22.07.2008, 13:51
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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We could call them.... hybrid cars !
Shh, or some other bugger will patent it...
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  #480  
Old 22.07.2008, 14:12
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Just wondering - has there ever been a study on open-fronted fridges and how much energy they use compared to those with doors? When you look at how many of these things there are in supermarkets it makes me wonder how much impact they could have...
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