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  #621  
Old 27.10.2008, 16:05
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

For those of you interested in anthropogenic vs natural forcings, one of the best figures I know of to examine this is figure 4 from the IPCC summary for policy makers report found here (pdf ... recommended reading):
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-re...r4_syr_spm.pdf
Figure here:

The graph shows two sets of simulations of the earths temperature. The first considers only natural forcings of the climate system, solar activity and volcanoes. The second adds anthropogenic forcings to the natural forcings. For some of the 20th century temperatures can be explained by natural forcings, that is to say that the observations fall within the range of the model predictions. However, towards the end of the 20th century natural forcings are not sufficient to explain the observed temperature increases within the uncertainties of the global climate models.

Side note:
For those of you interested (and close to Zurich) there is a public lecture by the president of the IPCC followed by a panel discussion at ETH next week.

Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri

Präsident des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Climate Change - What next?

Vortrag und anschliessende Podiumsdiskussion mit Experten der ETH Zürich und des Club of Rome

Donnerstag, 6. November 2008
18:00 bis 20:00 Uhr

ETH Zürich, Auditorium Maximum
Rämistrasse 101, 8006 Zürich
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  #622  
Old 31.10.2008, 00:25
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

The problem with pseudo-science is the tendency to try to prove oneself right instead of trying to find the truth about a matter.


Boston (MA) - Scientists at MIT have recorded a nearly simultaneous world-wide increase in methane levels. This is the first increase in ten years, and what baffles science is that this data contradicts theories stating man is the primary source of increase for this greenhouse gas. It takes about one full year for gases generated in the highly industrial northern hemisphere to cycle through and reach the southern hemisphere. However, since all worldwide levels rose simultaneously throughout the same year, it is now believed this may be part of a natural cycle in mother nature - and not the direct result of man's contributions.

http://www.tgdaily.com/html_tmp/cont...-113-text.html
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  #623  
Old 31.10.2008, 07:40
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

The TG Daily article has quite a bit of "spin" associated with it. Read the press release from MIT.

Second the article isn't out in GRL yet (as of Oct. 31) as the TG Daily article incorrectly states, so it's clear that the author of that article didn't read it since many paragraphs are taken verbatim from the MIT press release, or just a few bits of editorial flair. What wasn't in the press release were the the parts about natural vs anthropogenic. That seems to be added by the reporter. The difference between the press release and the article in the TG Daily, is that the professors doing the research get to make sure the press release accurately quotes their findings, whereas the article does not have that scrutinty.

It's been stated in the past on this thread that one should get as close to the original literature as possible, and not believe some newspaper story. I'll read the GRL article when it comes out, and get back to you on what exactly it says.

In the future you should probably refrain from dismissing decades of climate research by thousands of scientists because methane levels rose in 2007, and we aren't sure why yet.
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  #624  
Old 31.10.2008, 10:00
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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What wasn't in the press release were the the parts about natural vs anthropogenic. That seems to be added by the reporter.
I see 2 sentences that the reporter logically inferred from the press release:

"...and what baffles science is that this data contradicts theories stating man is the primary source of increase for this greenhouse gas"

"Findings like these tell us it's too early to know for sure if man's impact is affecting things at the political cry of "alarming rates."

I don't see anything wrong with this journalism.


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In the future you should probably refrain from dismissing decades of climate research by thousands of scientists because methane levels rose in 2007, and we aren't sure why yet.
I'm not at all dismissing the works of climate researchers. Afterall, they are simply gathering data. But I would dismiss bad conclusions that are used by alarmist to manipulate politics, economy, and society. Perhaps they should refrain from agitating by citing research that is inconclusive.
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  #625  
Old 31.10.2008, 11:54
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I see 2 sentences that the reporter logically inferred from the press release:

"...and what baffles science is that this data contradicts theories stating man is the primary source of increase for this greenhouse gas"

"Findings like these tell us it's too early to know for sure if man's impact is affecting things at the political cry of "alarming rates."

I don't see anything wrong with this journalism.

I'm not at all dismissing the works of climate researchers. Afterall, they are simply gathering data. But I would dismiss bad conclusions that are used by alarmist to manipulate politics, economy, and society. Perhaps they should refrain from agitating by citing research that is inconclusive.
Here's a figure from the IPCC Technical summary Report (Figure TS1) which shows the ice core data for green house gasses for the last 650 thousand years. On the very right side of the graph you can see the period in which humans inhabited the earth. The concentration of methane (CH4) has more than tripled since man came on the earth.


Now if I look at the press release page (since the GRL paper isn't out yet...I keep checking (link)).
There is a graphic showing the professor and post doc holding the timeseries of what I can only assume to be methane for the past 10-20 or so years, it looks like the upward trend is only tens of ppbs not more than 1000 ppb like the above figure. So this finding is interesting, but it doesn't come close to the magnitude of the the more than tripling of CH4 since man started inhabiting Earth.

Lastly, as the press release also states the concentrations of the hydroxyl radical could potentially be the cause of this increase, and the reason the worldwide methane levels rose. If that is true, then the sources of methane would not be the cause of the increase, rather the sinks (or loss mechanisms) would be the source of the methane increase.

So in response to the "logically inferred" journalistic statements, they are without merit. Unless the increase of methane is on the scale of the increase due to anthropogenic activity (>1000 ppb) (it isn't), then anthropogenic activity is still the primary source of the excess methane in the atmosphere. And the new finding doesn't contradict this, so the second statement, which requires the first to be true is also incorrect.
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  #626  
Old 31.10.2008, 12:02
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

In technical analysis for the stock markets, graphs 2 and 3 scream the word "BREAKOUT". Usually it means that you shouldn't play against a move of that magnitude and it also means that you should pay attention. Bigtime.

But, heck, what do I know? I just read the papers

Paul
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  #627  
Old 04.11.2008, 15:10
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

As you see in the picture attached, global warming is proved, so no need to argue! global-warming-what-s-behind-global-warming.jpg
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  #628  
Old 30.12.2008, 16:28
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2008 was the year man-made global warming was disproved

This freezing weather is making me yearn for some global warming

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/c...disproved.html
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  #629  
Old 05.01.2009, 08:20
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Don't worry Phos, it's still warming.

Met Office statement (pdf)
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  #630  
Old 09.03.2009, 22:12
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Don't worry Phos, it's still warming.

Met Office statement (pdf)
Not according to this group of scientist: Scientists meet to dispute global warming theory

They say the earth is cooler now than 2000 years ago.
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  #631  
Old 09.03.2009, 22:17
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Not according to this group of scientist: Scientists meet to dispute global warming theory

They say the earth is cooler now than 2000 years ago.
Uh huh. They also say on that site that stem cells are 'tiny human beings'...
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Old 09.03.2009, 22:37
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Uh huh. They also say on that site that stem cells are 'tiny human beings'...
LOL. Say what? Who said that?
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  #633  
Old 24.03.2009, 17:42
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

according to this link... The modest global warming trend has stopped – maybe even reversed itself.

http://wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=92557
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Old 24.03.2009, 17:47
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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according to this link... The modest global warming trend has stopped – maybe even reversed itself.

http://wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=92557

"Shocker: 'Global warming' simply no longer happening
"

Well, many of us aren't shocked while we weren't so gullible to begin with. But I wonder how many "guys" have sworn to not have children and had their tubes tied. Sshh! Maybe we shouldn't it spoil it for them

Last edited by Phos; 24.03.2009 at 18:05.
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  #635  
Old 24.03.2009, 18:02
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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according to this link... The modest global warming trend has stopped – maybe even reversed itself.

http://wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=92557
I won't cease to be amazed by the whole "warming" hysteria.
What we really need to be *worried* about is the temp volatility. It's gonna cause a nice mess with the crops, besides being a pain in the butt for tourism and a financial nightmare for insurance/reinsurance Cos.

The present cold spell due to the sunspot cycle low AND massive glacial melt does not surprise me one bit...

Let's see what happens next... where is the darned FWD button when you need it most?

P.
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  #636  
Old 24.03.2009, 23:07
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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according to this link... The modest global warming trend has stopped – maybe even reversed itself.

http://wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=92557
Unforunately there are no links to any peer-reviewed literature in that story. I am inclined to ignore it.

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Well, many of us aren't shocked while we weren't so gullible to begin with. But I wonder how many "guys" have sworn to not have children and had their tubes tied. Sshh! Maybe we shouldn't it spoil it for them
Shouldn't that statement have been placed in the thread you started today?
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Old 24.03.2009, 23:13
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Unforunately there are no links to any peer-reviewed literature in that story. I am inclined to ignore it.
Doesn't the article cite data?

"For at least the last five years, global temperatures have been falling, according to tracking performed by Roy Spencer, the climatologist formerly of NASA."

You feel the data needs peer review?
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  #638  
Old 24.03.2009, 23:56
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Professor Richard Lindzen of MIT calls Anthropogenic Global Warming:

Global warming: the bogus religion of our age


In his article, he states AGW is "Completely divorced from scientific reality."

He explains that many scientists tow the anthropogenic global warming line to “make their lives easier,” as underfunded scientists can write a single paper endorsing AGW and suddenly be inundated with offers.

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  #639  
Old 25.03.2009, 08:31
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Overpopulation is mother of global warming.
All the other reasons are minor compared to it.
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  #640  
Old 25.03.2009, 09:04
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

what about all those computers being switched on every day ? they might add a bit warmth to the planet every day too don't they.
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