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  #681  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:04
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I'm sure I read somehwere that they now believe the ozone hole is a natural, cyclical event.
However, I'll need to do some investigating to find the source. Bear with me...
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Here's some better, scientific evidence.
http://newsrelease.uwaterloo.ca/news.php?id=5051
"But mounting evidence supports a new theory that says cosmic rays, rather than the sun's UV light, play the dominant role in breaking down ozone-depleting molecules and then ozone."

"The results provide strong evidence of the physical mechanism that the CR-driven electron-induced reaction of halogenated molecules plays the dominant role in causing the ozone hole." (my emphasis).

I haven't read the paper, because it requires a subscription. But on the face of it, it appears that ozone depletion rates via CFC reactions can be strongly driven by cosmic ray fluxes. These CR fluxes can dominate the depletion due to UV radiation.

But that is not to deny that CFCs (halogenated molecules) play a part.

Or am I missing something?
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  #682  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:13
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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The wild guess approach that maybe if we drive less, then perhaps we won't have any problems strikes me as ineffective thinking, not to mention seemingly deceived.
So is that your excuse for doing nothing, because nobody has yet spoon-fed you the complete solution to the problem? If you believe that something must be done, and to drive less is a part of the solution, why not make a start by driving less?

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I get sick of how you lump groups together, seemingly only to validate your conspiracies. There are many green movements, not all of them hysteric, not all motivated by politics.
Hear hear. It betrays a lack of capacity for critical thinking. A must when discussing climate change, since the debate lives or dies on data, not opinion. Nature doesn't hold elections, use lobby groups or publish Op-Ed pieces.

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Best not look into them then and just take the wild guess that there's nothing that can be done but move people.
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  #683  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:18
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I get sick of how you lump groups together, seemingly only to validate your conspiracies. There are many green movements, not all of them hysteric, not all motivated by politics.
I can sympathize. I get crap from trolls all the time for similar reasons. You brought up the word green, not I.


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So is that your excuse for doing nothing, because nobody has yet spoon-fed you the complete solution to the problem? If you believe that something must be done, and to drive less is a part of the solution, why not make a start by driving less?

Hear hear. It betrays a lack of capacity for critical thinking. A must when discussing climate change, since the debate lives or dies on data, not opinion. Nature doesn't hold elections, use lobby groups or publish Op-Ed pieces.


I'm not trying to downplay climate change. It's clearly happening. It's a mistake to get stuck on carbon emission as the culprit, and the premise that less carbon emission would reverse it. A more pragmatic stance is plan how to survive in a world that is some degrees hotter.


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Rather than just C&P from the article, did you do like I did and find his MIT Home Page?

Did you then look at his list of publications? What conclusions did you draw from this list? Did any catch your eye? Did you download and read any of these? Did reading his words in a professional, scientific context shed any light on the Maily Dail [sic] article? Did you look for any critiques of these papers in the literature?
TBH, no. I saw an article with lots of data from 2006. I'll keep an eye out for it.

My take away were two things: 1) There is no real scientific proof linking GW to human activity; and, 2) there is circumstantial data, but even the interpretation of that data is debatable.

Are these two points refutable?
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  #684  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:28
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I disagree. Far more important measures are energy consumption per capita, the efficiency of the production of that energy, and the production of greenhouse gases per unit of energy delivered, else per capita.

Other useful measures are the EROEI (a ratio and therefore a dimensionless number) and net energy, which is measured in whatever energy units you prefer.
Humans like consumption, you can't reduce it that much. just check how much clothes people buy, while 10-20% of them are quite enough, we like to travel more, and so on,....
put it simple, if all governments in the world join green lobby in e.g. 20 years they can only reduce consumption/capita by 10-15% and pollution by 20%, after that becomes even more complicated and difficult to further reuce. But by that period, popul. has already increased more than 25% and of course people in developing world become richer and consume easily 30% more,...
The story goes on.
Popul. increase simply ruins all the efforts.
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  #685  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:36
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

There is no doubt world has been changing all the time ( although one of Black lobby founders doesn't agree with evolution!)
However the change has been so slow that people in older time were thinking everything has always been like this and this influenced their belief, relig.,...

That gradual change within milions of years is nothing compared to human originated changes specially within last couple of centuries which doesn't give time to nature to comensate.
Black lobby needs to check the scale carefully not to misjudge!
Simulationg such a complicated earth in lab is too difficult to predict accuratley the future, however we can't sit and watch untill 101% proof which is damn too late
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  #686  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:41
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I'm not trying to downplay climate change. It's clearly happening. It's a mistake to get stuck on carbon emission as the culprit, and the premise that less carbon emission would reverse it. A more pragmatic stance is plan how to survive in a world that is some degrees hotter.
You've given up already ? I'm disappointed in you .

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TBH, no. I saw an article with lots of data from 2006. I'll keep an eye out for it.

My take away were two things: 1) There is no real scientific proof linking GW to human activity; and, 2) there is circumstantial data, but even the interpretation of that data is debatable.

Are these two points refutable?
I should say so. May I refer you to the IPCC WG1 AR4 Summary For Policymakers (PDF Alert) 18 pages?

The TOC page is here.

The thing is, I've done a lot of homework on this over the last couple of years. I now become annoyed when I see people arguing on the basis of C&Ps from media articles which are usually so many links down the chain of Chinese whispers it's meaningless. Yet we proceed to argue with one another anyway.

Please don't retort with anything like "IPCC is a political tool ..." because it doesn't add to the debate. I could therefore just as reasonably counter with "you're being paid by <insert special interst group here>." And the debate is dead at that point. The debate should be about facts. Not a scientifically illiterate journalist's misinterpretation of something.
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  #687  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:43
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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( although one of Black lobby founders doesn't agree with evolution!)
Can I at least pick another color? Purple? Magenta? Can we be called the Crimson lobby please?
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  #688  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:46
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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You've given up already ? I'm disappointed in you .
Before this gets all convoluted, let me reiterate the point of discussion here. The discussion is whether Global Warming is cause by human activity, particularly carbon emissions.

Right?
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  #689  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:47
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

I smell relig. effect here again from black lobby. I can summarize like below:

God who created the whole universe for the sake of human, is too kind to let human ruin the world, therefore even if it is a last minute save, superman will come and save the world. So sleep well and do what you do!

That's the root cause behind being doutbfull about greens and environmentalists.
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  #690  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:47
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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however we can't sit and watch untill 101% proof which is damn too late

I have bad news for you:

It's already too late. We're ALL going to die.
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  #691  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:49
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Can I at least pick another color? Purple? Magenta? Can we be called the Crimson lobby please?
Religion sees the things in black or white, and in our discussion, second one doesn't apply
Then you shouldn't use the word lobby for greens!
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  #692  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:52
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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You silly, silly person.
If u think I'll groan at u because of ur comment, u r wrong (as usual:-)
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  #693  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:56
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Humans like consumption, you can't reduce it that much.
just check how much clothes people buy, while 10-20% of them are quite enough, we like to travel more, and so on,....
put it simple, if all governments in the world join green lobby in e.g. 20 years they can only reduce consumption/capita by 10-15% and pollution by 20%, after that becomes even more complicated and difficult to further reuce. But by that period, popul. has already increased more than 25% and of course people in developing world become richer and consume easily 30% more,...
The story goes on.
Popul. increase simply ruins all the efforts.
Why not hop over to http://withouthotair.com/ and try to convince yourself that we're not in a deepening energy crisis. If that doesn't do it, try http://www.theoildrum.com/. How can the current global population be supplied with energy at the rate of the average European, let alone that of the USA? Where would the energy sources come from? How long would it take to build it all out? Now refer back to my comment about EROEI and net energy.

Here's a question for you. Should you trade in your car for a more fuel-efficient petrol or diesel model? Or should you keep driving it some more? Consider the embodied energy in your existing vehicle expressed as the number of km you would have to drive in order to expend the same amount of energy.

If you change the car you reduce your personal oil consumption, but waste the energy that went into its manufacture. Keep the old car and personally you will use up more oil.

Visit http://www.dieoff.org/ and read about the failure of economic "theory" and try to imagine what it would be like if, say, a billion people were to die in 10 years.
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  #694  
Old 25.03.2009, 21:58
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I have bad news for you:

It's already too late. We're ALL going to die.
For sure one day sun will die off so do us, if still on earth!
But I suppose heaven is not in solar system, so don't be hopeless!
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  #695  
Old 25.03.2009, 22:00
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Before this gets all convoluted, let me reiterate the point of discussion here. The discussion is whether Global Warming is cause by human activity, particularly carbon emissions.

Right?
Right. So may I take it you're busy reading AR4WG1_SPM.pdf?
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  #696  
Old 25.03.2009, 22:06
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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If u think I'll groan at u because of ur comment, u r wrong (as usual:-)
Oh lay off her/him. You know she's right.

I'm with the Crimson Lobby. Crimson.... the color of blood. And we want yours..... buhahahaha.

How's that? We're Crimson now.


@BeastOfBodmin: I'm not reading it yet, but alright, I'll read it at some point.
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  #697  
Old 25.03.2009, 22:11
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Oh lay off her/him. You know she's right.

I'm with the Crimson Lobby. Crimson.... the color of blood. And we want yours..... buhahahaha.

How's that? We're Crimson now.


@BeastOfBodmin: I'm not reading it yet, but alright, I'll read it at some point.

ok, will call it crimson lobby.
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  #698  
Old 25.03.2009, 22:15
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Why not hop over to http://withouthotair.com/ and try to convince yourself that we're not in a deepening energy crisis. If that doesn't do it, try http://www.theoildrum.com/. How can the current global population be supplied with energy at the rate of the average European, let alone that of the USA? Where would the energy sources come from? How long would it take to build it all out? Now refer back to my comment about EROEI and net energy.

Here's a question for you. Should you trade in your car for a more fuel-efficient petrol or diesel model? Or should you keep driving it some more? Consider the embodied energy in your existing vehicle expressed as the number of km you would have to drive in order to expend the same amount of energy.

If you change the car you reduce your personal oil consumption, but waste the energy that went into its manufacture. Keep the old car and personally you will use up more oil.

Visit http://www.dieoff.org/ and read about the failure of economic "theory" and try to imagine what it would be like if, say, a billion people were to die in 10 years.
Don't get me wrong. Of course I am saying we should reduce consumption, but to be realistic, without popul. control, it will not work! you empty one glass of water from the pool, while they pour one barrel in the pool.
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  #699  
Old 25.03.2009, 22:48
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Visit http://www.dieoff.org/ and read about the failure of economic "theory" and try to imagine what it would be like if, say, a billion people were to die in 10 years.
That would depend rather a lot on which billion people.
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  #700  
Old 25.03.2009, 23:20
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

We had Prof. Craig Hill from Atlanta over in Bern the other week and, when he wasn't mentioning the $20 million project fund he was sitting on, he showed us a rather neat little molecule for splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen. Apparently, the DoE have been very interested as it works using sunlight and if you get the oxidation states of the metal clusters right, you can get them to either produce hydrogen or oxygen. Now, neither is that new, but the major advantage his molecule had is that it doesn't break down in sunlight (if other compounds worked like this, we'd have almost unlimited hydrogen to mess about with instead of oil by now). All it needs is for someone to create the material application for it to work in (involving membranes for allowing electrons in solution to pass, but not protons or it all recombines into water).
Basically, if someone can make the device out of it, then assuming the initial calculations were correct, then you should be able to produce hydrogen gas on a reasonable scale and efficiency, not to mention cost. It's not as efficient as the natural version, but lasts a lot longer.
If you're really into it, it uses a ReO4 core, analogous to that of Photosystem II's water oxidising centre (WOC), which is what green plants use to photosynthesise.
Could be interesting. I did dabble on the fringes of this stuff in the lab, but we couldn't characterise whatever mess we made. It did, however, produce oxygen from water, so was a step in the right direction...
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