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Old 14.03.2013, 16:19
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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What you choose to ignore or not realize that the scientific community has asked the same questions over and over about their models, completeness of data, and assumptions. Instead of building a global conspiracy, those thousands of climate scientists have proposed hundreds of models questioning each others work in fare greater depth than any outsider over decades. Only then do they talk about consensus.

And saying that there are no records going back hundreds of thousands of years is remarkably ignorant. Records does not mean necessarily mean pen and paper, or printer and paper. The Earth keeps its own records irrespective. These are extracted in the form of tree rings over hundreds of years, and ice cores over thousands.
About "These are extracted in the form of tree rings over hundreds of years" - I think you will find tree rings are now somewhat discredited since somebody noticed that according to tree rings analysis the global temperature has been falling for the last 60 years. This is called the "divergence problem".
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Old 14.03.2013, 16:23
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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So again, I think it is logical to conserve resources, and to engage in responsible stewardship of the environment, but it is illogical to believe these apocalyptic predictions based on incomplete computer models that are themselves based on incomplete direct observations.
Well said. This is my biggest problem with the whole climate change debate; we have been told that models predict global temperatures will rise exponentially since the early 90s, yet it appears (from the UK Met. Office's own data), that warming has in fact stalled over the last 12 - 15 years. So, what happens to all these models now? Are they still valid, or should they be re-written? Discarded?
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  #1183  
Old 14.03.2013, 16:36
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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You are so tied to your environmental dogma, that, to you, its not science anymore. This is part of your personal religion. In this instance, "Global Warming" is your God, and you'll ignore any argument against the existence of God, i.e. "Global Warming".

I don't quote statistics and science.....
No, it's all science to me. Religion? God? I don't believe in those, just science. There are hundreds of experts that share in my opinion on global warming, for each that shares yours. I would love for someone to show me some fact based scientific evidence that global warming doesn't exist. But that wont be you - because statistics and science are just a sham or scam to you. You're a true mystic. Next time you feel ill, wrap a dead baby beaver up in an old sock. Dip it it motor oil and hang it from your neck. Climb up Jungfraujoch and shake your fist at the sun. that'll stop global warming for sure....an old medicine woman told me so, so that's all the evidence we need.
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  #1184  
Old 14.03.2013, 16:50
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Again, more groans than facts. Thanks for the discourse, for although we will likely never agree with each other, I enjoyed the exercise. I'll check out the books you mentioned, with a grain of salt of course...
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Old 14.03.2013, 17:24
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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What you choose to ignore or not realize that the scientific community has asked the same questions over and over about their models, completeness of data, and assumptions. Instead of building a global conspiracy, those thousands of climate scientists have proposed hundreds of models questioning each others work in fare greater depth than any outsider over decades. Only then do they talk about consensus.

And saying that there are no records going back hundreds of thousands of years is remarkably ignorant. Records does not mean necessarily mean pen and paper, or printer and paper. The Earth keeps its own records irrespective. These are extracted in the form of tree rings over hundreds of years, and ice cores over thousands.
Apparently you missed the part where I talked about indirect observation...

We can make assumptions indirectly about previous states of global climate, but these will never be as precise as our direct observation, and most of these assumptions are based upon theories which themselves may not be very accurate.
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Old 14.03.2013, 17:24
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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No, it's all science to me. Religion? God? I don't believe in those, just science. There are hundreds of experts that share in my opinion on global warming, for each that shares yours. I would love for someone to show me some fact based scientific evidence that global warming doesn't exist. But that wont be you - because statistics and science are just a sham or scam to you. You're a true mystic. Next time you feel ill, wrap a dead baby beaver up in an old sock. Dip it it motor oil and hang it from your neck. Climb up Jungfraujoch and shake your fist at the sun. that'll stop global warming for sure....an old medicine woman told me so, so that's all the evidence we need.
I guess nobody ever taught you that science is a belief system, just like religion. Your demands for fact-based science sound just like someone challenging me to find "where it says in the Bible that..." Again, like I said, I can show you all the proof and rationale, but because you are so tied to your belief system, you won't accept it...
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  #1187  
Old 14.03.2013, 17:29
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Your demands for fact-based science sound just like someone challenging me to find "where it says in the Bible that..."
Talk about indirect observation.
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  #1188  
Old 14.03.2013, 18:56
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Again, like I said, I can show you all the proof and rationale....
still waiting, but not holding my breath...
maybe the evidence will come from the books that you mentioned. Or, using your logic, maybe the authors are full of shit and are just trying to sell books.

Last edited by pilatus1; 14.03.2013 at 19:02. Reason: afterthought
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  #1189  
Old 16.03.2013, 20:29
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

As alluded to earlier by poptart, the natural world doesn't give a sh1t about scientific graphs, or whether we believe fossil fuel global warming is happening or not.

Coral polyps, the animals that build coral reefs, are very sensitive to warm temperatures and will bleach when the sea surface temperature is higher than normal; the bleaching threshold is only 1°C warmer than the highest monthly average temperature.

Bleached corals usually recover but if the bleaching is severe, or the abnormal temperatures are prolonged, individual polyps or whole colonies will die, starting with the most vulnerable species.

Today, the NOAA Coral Reef Watch satellite shows bleaching alerts right across the southern hemisphere, and it looks particularly bad along the west and south coasts of Australia . Perhaps, if someone from that part of the world is reading this, they could let us know if they've heard of, or seen any bleaching.

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/baa/index.html

When our summer comes, there will be bleaching alerts in the northern hemisphere. And it is really only a matter of the next record hot year to wipe out most of the surviving corals.

This is why even conservative projections of a 1.5°C rise in global warming spell disaster for coral reefs. And when all the corals die, a quarter of fish species go with them.

Thomas Goreau, president of the Global Coral Reef Alliance, believes that the extinction of coral reefs by global warming from fossil fuels is now inevitable. And if we care about saving what's left of the coral ecosystems, we have to actively restore and maintain these reefs using technology like Biorock, simply to keep them alive until the world can reverse CO2 increase at source and sink:

http://globalcoral.org/fossil_fuel_g...rming_will.htm

If you're interested in learning (a great deal) about coral science and restoration, and want to be involved hands-on in saving coral reefs then I can definitely recommend joining a Biorock training workshop:

http://biorock-workshop.org/
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Old 16.03.2013, 21:31
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Coral polyps, the animals that build coral reefs, are very sensitive to warm temperatures and will bleach when the sea surface temperature is higher than normal
Define "normal". Thanks.
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Old 16.03.2013, 22:02
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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As alluded to earlier by poptart, the natural world doesn't give a sh1t about scientific graphs, or whether we believe fossil fuel global warming is happening or not.

Coral polyps, the animals that build coral reefs, are very sensitive to warm temperatures <snip> etc. etc.
I wonder how coral - and polar bears - have managed to survive the millennia of warming and cooling of our earth.

Or perhaps they were created 5000 year ago...
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Old 16.03.2013, 23:06
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Define "normal". Thanks.
Corals grow in water temperatures from 18 to 31°C. The upper limit will be a few degrees less for corals found in cooler parts of the world.
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Old 16.03.2013, 23:30
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I wonder how coral - and polar bears - have managed to survive the millennia of warming and cooling of our earth.

Or perhaps they were created 5000 year ago...
Well polar bears evolved relatively recently and haven't had to cope with temperatures any higher than today before. If they can adapt they might survive but the speed of change in their environment may prove too much.
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Old 17.03.2013, 00:38
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I wonder how coral - and polar bears - have managed to survive the millennia of warming and cooling of our earth.

Or perhaps they were created 5000 year ago...
Had to do some searching.

This article talks about coral retreating from the equator to cooler latitudes during the last major episode of global warming about 125,000 years ago.

And suggests that corals move back and forth, towards the poles during warm periods, and retract towards the equator in cooler times, in search of the most favourable water conditions.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...1212093235.htm
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Old 17.03.2013, 09:12
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Had to do some searching.

This article talks about coral retreating from the equator to cooler latitudes during the last major episode of global warming about 125,000 years ago.

And suggests that corals move back and forth, towards the poles during warm periods, and retract towards the equator in cooler times, in search of the most favourable water conditions.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...1212093235.htm
Thanks. So are the corals on the move now??
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Old 17.03.2013, 09:21
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Thanks. So are the corals on the move now??
Given time they will be. Again, if the change happens too fast they will struggle.
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Old 17.03.2013, 14:15
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Thanks. So are the corals on the move now??
Most hard coral species are broadcast spawners and produce male and/or female gametes that are released into the water column in massive numbers, enabling them to distribute their offspring over a broad geographic area. The eggs and sperm join to form free-floating larvae that float in the water column until they find a suitable space to settle - usually a hard surface to which they can attach.

http://coralreef.noaa.gov/aboutcoral.../reproduction/

When the next record hot year arrives, most of the existing coral reefs will bleach, starting with the species that have the lowest temperature tolerance.

If the thermal stress is prolonged (remaining above the bleaching threshold for over eight weeks), the corals die. Hardier heat-tolerant species can survive but only a small further increase in temperature will wipe them out too.

Scientists, like Thomas Goreau, want to build and maintain coral arks using the existing reefs until we can manage global warming. And who knows, given a chance and time, the reefs may even adapt to rising temperatures and higher ocean acidification.

Many people rely on the coral seas for their livelihood. As well as providing food, the coral reefs protect their shorelines from being washed away, and coral fish and juveniles of larger fish are used as fishmeal for prawn farms that supply our supermarkets.
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Old 17.03.2013, 22:02
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Gobal or not global...I am happy that the temperature is warming up...had enough of winter!!!
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Old 17.03.2013, 22:21
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Most hard coral species are broadcast spawners and produce male and/or female gametes that are released into the water column in massive numbers, enabling them to distribute their offspring over a broad geographic area. The eggs and sperm join to form free-floating larvae that float in the water column until they find a suitable space to settle - usually a hard surface to which they can attach.

http://coralreef.noaa.gov/aboutcoral.../reproduction/

When the next record hot year arrives, most of the existing coral reefs will bleach, starting with the species that have the lowest temperature tolerance.

If the thermal stress is prolonged (remaining above the bleaching threshold for over eight weeks), the corals die. Hardier heat-tolerant species can survive but only a small further increase in temperature will wipe them out too.

Scientists, like Thomas Goreau, want to build and maintain coral arks using the existing reefs until we can manage global warming. And who knows, given a chance and time, the reefs may even adapt to rising temperatures and higher ocean acidification.

Many people rely on the coral seas for their livelihood. As well as providing food, the coral reefs protect their shorelines from being washed away, and coral fish and juveniles of larger fish are used as fishmeal for prawn farms that supply our supermarkets.
I would really like to see some numbers about the risk level.
I read somewhere (maybe in this thread?) that coral needs sea temperatures between 27 & 31 degrees. So if sea temperatures rise by one degree then what was between 27 & 31 will know be between 28 & 32? So around only a fifth of the coral will be in water that is over 31 & therefore at risk?
According to the US Govt National Climatic centre here global ocean temperatures have risen around 0.5C in the last hundred years, if I understand the number correctly? So there is not so much stress?
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Old 17.03.2013, 22:26
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Well said. This is my biggest problem with the whole climate change debate; we have been told that models predict global temperatures will rise exponentially since the early 90s, yet it appears (from the UK Met. Office's own data), that warming has in fact stalled over the last 12 - 15 years. So, what happens to all these models now? Are they still valid, or should they be re-written? Discarded?
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47
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