Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Off-Topic > Off-Topic > International affairs/politics  
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1201  
Old 17.03.2013, 22:52
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 10,568
Groaned at 472 Times in 405 Posts
Thanked 19,378 Times in 10,229 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

How can you answer a post that quotes the UK Met office (who are one of the top two or three most eminent climatic authorities world wide) by quoting a blog that is run by somebody who is not even a climate scientist?

An independent review of the Met Office Hadley Centre commissioned by Defra and the MoD in 2007 concluded that:
'It is beyond dispute that the Met Office Hadley Centre occupies a position at the pinnacle of world climate science and in translating that science into policy advice.'

Defra is the UK government department responsible for policy and regulations on the environment, food and rural affairs
Reply With Quote
  #1202  
Old 17.03.2013, 22:56
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Brisbane, QLD, Oz
Posts: 610
Groaned at 155 Times in 110 Posts
Thanked 318 Times in 211 Posts
drsmithy has earned some respectdrsmithy has earned some respect
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
Yes, businesses opposed legislation, but I think you would be very hard-pressed to prove they did this because they wanted to pollute the environment.
This is a false dilemma fallacy.

I'm fairly sure you'll find most cigarette manufacturers didn't set out to give their customers cancer, either.

What they want to do is not really relevant. What they actually do is.

Quote:
More often, the legislation was likely overreaching, too aggressive, and the businesses had to protect themselves from corporate suicide or negotiate legislation that they could reasonably afford to implement.
And by "afford to implement" you mean "maintain executive bonuses", right ?

Quote:
What good is the environmental legislation if it completely shuts down the company that owns the factory, and, for lack of funds, the factory slowly rots into the environment?
This is another false dilemma fallacy.

Quote:
80% of the forests? Really? Everywhere I turn, there are trees, here in Switzerland, and back home in Florida.
The plural of anecdote is not data.

Quote:
I don't see people and animals falling over choking from CO2 poisoning...have we all somehow miraculously evolved to not need so much oxygen in the few thousands of years that man has been chopping down forests?
This is a non-sequitur.

Quote:
And where does most of that CO2 come from? Mankind? Or is it naturally occurring?
Fundamentally natural sources, but released in unnatural ways by human activities.

Quote:
As to the carbon credits, you are deluded if you don't believe these snake-oil carbon credit salesmen are making money selling them to you. And yes, many of them believe in "global warming."
Completely irrelevant.

Quote:
As amogles pointed out, at one time there were different moneyed interests, and different industries were the most powerful in the world, and they weren't able to stop the development of new technologies that eventually unseated them. Why is it any different today?
Now they have a lot more power and global co-ordination.

Quote:
Third, that "outdated relic from a century ago," was an environmental boon compared to what came before. Horses, oxen, cows, donkeys, mules, etc are all ruminants, and as such, fart a lot. The methane gas emitted by these animals is four times more powerful a greenhouse gas than CO2, and per unit of distance (metric or SAE), these animals emitted more greenhouse gasses and required far more fuel than do automobiles today. Further, when your car breaks down, it gets towed off. When a horse (or whatever animal) broke down and died, oftentimes it was left right there in the street to decompose because it was too heavy to move, emitting more greenhouse gasses in the process.
Cow farts, et al, are part of a carbon neutral cycle.

Fossil fuels are not.

Quote:
By the late 1800's cities were literally drowning in the byproducts of beasts of burden. In addition to dealing with their carcasses, there was the much more pressing burden of dealing with the rising sea of horseshit that was filling the streets and causing outbreaks of disease in places like London, New York City, Boston, Paris, etc. The farms couldn't take any more "fertilizer," so there were huge landfills where the crap was dumped (and emitted methane gas, by the way). Those cute New England brownstones with the raised front porches that Americans love were built that way, to elevate people above the layer of horseshit sitting in the road. So, yeah, I'll take the relic, as its still the best option we have.
It's not the best option we have. Particularly in cities - the example you are using - electric cars are by far a better option.

Quote:
So again, let's have the conservation, which is good and necessary. But let's wake up and realize that Al Gore and his ilk are no different than the tribal shamans that told our ancestors to sacrifice our virgins to the gods otherwise the crops wouldn't grow...
I don't really care about Al Gore.

I do care about the vast, vast majority of researchers who collect and analyse data for a living, whose efforts point towards CO2-driven global warming.

Logical fallacies, personal anecdotes and political conspiracy theories do little to convince otherwise.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank drsmithy for this useful post:
This user groans at drsmithy for this post:
  #1203  
Old 17.03.2013, 23:05
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Brisbane, QLD, Oz
Posts: 610
Groaned at 155 Times in 110 Posts
Thanked 318 Times in 211 Posts
drsmithy has earned some respectdrsmithy has earned some respect
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
How can you answer a post that quotes the UK Met office (who are one of the top two or three most eminent climatic authorities world wide) by quoting a blog that is run by somebody who is not even a climate scientist?
Firstly, you miss the main point, which is to focus on the long term trend rather than the short term noise.

Secondly, the sources of data used are listed. Which of them do you wish to dispute ?
Reply With Quote
  #1204  
Old 17.03.2013, 23:08
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Brisbane, QLD, Oz
Posts: 610
Groaned at 155 Times in 110 Posts
Thanked 318 Times in 211 Posts
drsmithy has earned some respectdrsmithy has earned some respect
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
The truth about Global Warming is that it is hardly a proved theory,
No theory is ever "proved". That's not how science works.

It is just supported by an increasing amount of evidence.

You would struggle to find many scientific theories in humanity's history, that are supported by more evidence and have been subject to more scrutiny, than those behind global warming and climate change.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank drsmithy for this useful post:
The following 2 users groan at drsmithy for this post:
  #1205  
Old 17.03.2013, 23:11
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Brisbane, QLD, Oz
Posts: 610
Groaned at 155 Times in 110 Posts
Thanked 318 Times in 211 Posts
drsmithy has earned some respectdrsmithy has earned some respect
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
That is an interesting new scientific method; if I cannot think of a cause then take any cause that seems to fit.
No, it's one of the fundamental tenets behind the scientific method.

Quote:
So if, for example, I am not as clever as Einstein & I therefore could not propose the theory of Relativity then there must be another cause for these quantum effects that I am seeing.
If you can find evidence to support your alternative hypothesis, absolutely. Indeed, as with climate chance, if you have sufficient evidence to support your alternative hypothesis, the world will beat a path to your door.

It seems you don't really understand how science works. It might be best if you refrain from making comments about it.
Reply With Quote
This user groans at drsmithy for this post:
  #1206  
Old 17.03.2013, 23:14
st2lemans's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Lugano
Posts: 31,577
Groaned at 2,353 Times in 1,711 Posts
Thanked 38,371 Times in 18,109 Posts
st2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
No theory is ever "proved". That's not how science works.
BS.

Nearly all mathematical theorems have been proven, including Fermat's last.

Tom
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank st2lemans for this useful post:
  #1207  
Old 17.03.2013, 23:17
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Brisbane, QLD, Oz
Posts: 610
Groaned at 155 Times in 110 Posts
Thanked 318 Times in 211 Posts
drsmithy has earned some respectdrsmithy has earned some respect
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
The sky is not falling, and we are arrogant to assume that we have this much power over our environment.
Why ? We have enough nukes to render the planet a nearly lifeless husk. Why should we assume other impacts could not be, say, half as significant as that ?

Quote:
Species much more successful and impactful than mankind have come and gone, and the Earth is still here. The Earth will still be here after we're gone.
Yet another false dilemma fallacy.

No-one, that I have seen, is suggesting the Earth is going to be destroyed by global waming.

What they are saying is that large parts of it will become far more inhospitable to humanity.

Last edited by drsmithy; 18.03.2013 at 00:39.
Reply With Quote
  #1208  
Old 17.03.2013, 23:22
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Brisbane, QLD, Oz
Posts: 610
Groaned at 155 Times in 110 Posts
Thanked 318 Times in 211 Posts
drsmithy has earned some respectdrsmithy has earned some respect
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
BS.

Nearly all mathematical theorems have been proven, including Fermat's last.

Tom
Not really the same thing.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank drsmithy for this useful post:
  #1209  
Old 18.03.2013, 10:01
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 10,568
Groaned at 472 Times in 405 Posts
Thanked 19,378 Times in 10,229 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
No, it's one of the fundamental tenets behind the scientific method.



If you can find evidence to support your alternative hypothesis, absolutely. Indeed, as with climate chance, if you have sufficient evidence to support your alternative hypothesis, the world will beat a path to your door.

It seems you don't really understand how science works. It might be best if you refrain from making comments about it.
Yes, I am just a stupid physicist who believes in causality not correlation
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #1210  
Old 18.03.2013, 10:05
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Brisbane, QLD, Oz
Posts: 610
Groaned at 155 Times in 110 Posts
Thanked 318 Times in 211 Posts
drsmithy has earned some respectdrsmithy has earned some respect
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
Yes, I am just a stupid physicist who believes in causality not correlation
Are you suggesting correlation is not a reason to investigate for causation ?
Reply With Quote
  #1211  
Old 18.03.2013, 13:56
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 10,568
Groaned at 472 Times in 405 Posts
Thanked 19,378 Times in 10,229 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
Firstly, you miss the main point, which is to focus on the long term trend rather than the short term noise.

Secondly, the sources of data used are listed. Which of them do you wish to dispute ?
I do not wish to dispute the sources of the data; I want to dispute the shape of the trend graph in this blog which looks quite different for the last decade or so than the one produced by the climate experts at the UK Met Office Hadley centre.

The long term trend you speak of is of around one hundred years and the UK Met Office are now talking about no global warming for two decades (until at least 2017) here which is a bit more than the short term noise.

The history of Physics is full of credible theories which had to be discarded because they could no longer explain the physical evidence & were replaced by new theories which fitted better. A good example is the various theories about the structure of atoms or planetary movements.

It is clear that if this lack of global warming continues then this theory will also have to be reviewed/modified......

Finally I would like to quote Einstein.
"One thousand experiments do not prove a theory & it only takes one experiment to disprove a theory."
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #1212  
Old 18.03.2013, 14:02
pilatus1's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Milky Way
Posts: 1,790
Groaned at 151 Times in 102 Posts
Thanked 4,757 Times in 1,873 Posts
pilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

which experiment disproves global warming?
Reply With Quote
  #1213  
Old 18.03.2013, 14:06
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 10,568
Groaned at 472 Times in 405 Posts
Thanked 19,378 Times in 10,229 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
which experiment disproves global warming?
Be patient & wait & see.....
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #1214  
Old 18.03.2013, 14:10
pilatus1's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Milky Way
Posts: 1,790
Groaned at 151 Times in 102 Posts
Thanked 4,757 Times in 1,873 Posts
pilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
Be patient & wait & see.....
Tell that to the people of Kiribati - maybe they should wait until their whole island is underwater
Reply With Quote
This user groans at pilatus1 for this post:
  #1215  
Old 18.03.2013, 14:29
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 10,568
Groaned at 472 Times in 405 Posts
Thanked 19,378 Times in 10,229 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
Tell that to the people of Kiribati - maybe they should wait until their whole island is underwater
The world has been warming since the last ice age - for the people of Kiribati it is just a question of sooner or later.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #1216  
Old 18.03.2013, 14:46
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Brisbane, QLD, Oz
Posts: 610
Groaned at 155 Times in 110 Posts
Thanked 318 Times in 211 Posts
drsmithy has earned some respectdrsmithy has earned some respect
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
I do not wish to dispute the sources of the data; I want to dispute the shape of the trend graph in this blog which looks quite different for the last decade or so than the one produced by the climate experts at the UK Met Office Hadley centre.
They both look to have a pretty solid upwards trend to me.

Quote:
The history of Physics is full of credible theories which had to be discarded because they could no longer explain the physical evidence & were replaced by new theories which fitted better.
What's your new theory that fits better ? Could be a good chance to become famous.

Quote:
It is clear that if this lack of global warming continues then this theory will also have to be reviewed/modified......
You mean the cherry picked window that shows it hasn't warmed will need to be adjusted ?

Quote:
"One thousand experiments do not prove a theory & it only takes one experiment to disprove a theory."
Experiments to disprove the theories behind climate change would be welcome. By everyone.
Reply With Quote
  #1217  
Old 18.03.2013, 14:48
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Brisbane, QLD, Oz
Posts: 610
Groaned at 155 Times in 110 Posts
Thanked 318 Times in 211 Posts
drsmithy has earned some respectdrsmithy has earned some respect
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
The world has been warming since the last ice age - for the people of Kiribati it is just a question of sooner or later.
As keeps being pointed out, the problem is not the warming, the problem is the unprecedented speed of the warming, most likely related to the concurrent impact of humanity digging up and burning a few millions years worth of fossil fuels in a century or two.
Reply With Quote
  #1218  
Old 18.03.2013, 14:51
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Brisbane, QLD, Oz
Posts: 610
Groaned at 155 Times in 110 Posts
Thanked 318 Times in 211 Posts
drsmithy has earned some respectdrsmithy has earned some respect
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
Be patient & wait & see.....
Is this the same advice you give smokers about cancer ?
Reply With Quote
This user groans at drsmithy for this post:
  #1219  
Old 18.03.2013, 15:04
pilatus1's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Milky Way
Posts: 1,790
Groaned at 151 Times in 102 Posts
Thanked 4,757 Times in 1,873 Posts
pilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post
The world has been warming since the last ice age - for the people of Kiribati it is just a question of sooner or later.
ok, then
Reply With Quote
  #1220  
Old 18.03.2013, 15:05
pilatus1's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Milky Way
Posts: 1,790
Groaned at 151 Times in 102 Posts
Thanked 4,757 Times in 1,873 Posts
pilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond reputepilatus1 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote:
View Post

It is clear that if this lack of global warming continues then this theory will also have to be reviewed/modified......
well, which is it?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
climate change, climategate, co2, global warming




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 2 (0 members and 2 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT +2. The time now is 15:08.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0