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  #1501  
Old 11.04.2013, 20:10
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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You guys make me laugh with the Groans and Thanks, day after day.

By the looks of your groan, thanks and rep counts; Jobsrobertsharpii appears to be drubbing Drsmithy and Pilatus1 singlehandedly.
who's doing all of the groaning and thanking? Ive never groaned at anyone, and generally don't hand out any thanks unless I've actually learned something from the post, the poster specifically answered a question of mine, or it's made me look at things in a new way (i.e valuable contributions to the thread.). I do think its ridiculous that Jobsrobertsharpii went out of his way to leave me a red blob, citing that if I don't agree with something that it must be a conspiracy theory, when I've never mentioned any conspiracy theories...(but to him human-influenced climate change is a big conspiracy by governments to control the masses, and for selling carbon credits...)
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  #1502  
Old 11.04.2013, 20:15
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I can't help but laugh at the irony of this...

The two of you really are doppelgangers...
Talk about irony. If two strangers potentially agree on certain aspects of one particular issue, then they are doppelgangers! Burn the witch!
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Old 19.04.2013, 00:35
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

just as a matter of interest because people keep talking about the high temperature in 1998 distorting the picture of global warming I made a graph of only the years 2001 - 2012 inclusive, See picture.

The data comes from the US Govt NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Forgot to say the graph is of the annual differences in Centigrade per year versus the 20th century average.

For me the trend line is pointing down?

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Old 19.04.2013, 01:30
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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just as a matter of interest because people keep talking about the high temperature in 1998 distorting the picture of global warming I made a graph of only the years 2001 - 2012 inclusive, See picture.
Graph it since 1900 and see what it looks like.
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  #1505  
Old 19.04.2013, 06:36
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Graph it since 1900 and see what it looks like.
Yes, please... Let's cherry-pick our data points until we finally luck into one that might support our argument... Then we'll jump around and say "SEE! SEE! I TOLD YOU!!"

From a climactic perspective, 1900 is just another date; there's no more relevance in a graph from 1900 as there would be in one from 1800 or 1700. Further, we didn't have the number and quality of instruments (in this case thermometers) then to record a similar quantity of data points as we do today, so any comparison has to be done on the basis of subjective statistical extrapolation (choosing which data points from the present day to keep, so as to make the comparison, and how much allowance to make for bad data recording then and imprecision then) so any argument can be made, with the right statistical method; it doesn't make it true.

BTW, still waiting for your proofs...
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Old 21.04.2013, 14:13
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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just as a matter of interest because people keep talking about the high temperature in 1998 distorting the picture of global warming I made a graph of only the years 2001 - 2012 inclusive, See picture.

The data comes from the US Govt NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Forgot to say the graph is of the annual differences in Centigrade per year versus the 20th century average.

For me the trend line is pointing down?
Perhaps you should let the guys at NOAA Research know the good news.

New study gives first independent confirmation of global land warming (April 9, 2013).

http://researchmatters.noaa.gov/news/Pages/20thCR.aspx
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Old 21.04.2013, 14:29
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Perhaps you should let the guys at NOAA Research know the good news.

New study gives first independent confirmation of global land warming (April 9, 2013).

http://researchmatters.noaa.gov/news/Pages/20thCR.aspx

Have they forgotten to mention what CO2 has to do with it?

Urban Heat islands have long been observed.
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  #1508  
Old 21.04.2013, 15:05
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Perhaps you should let the guys at NOAA Research know the good news.

New study gives first independent confirmation of global land warming (April 9, 2013).

http://researchmatters.noaa.gov/news/Pages/20thCR.aspx
Would be nice if they provided a graph, especially for this century.

I am more interested in today than in ancient history

BTW, global warming is land + sea?
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Old 21.04.2013, 16:18
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Scientists have made corrections to the recorded temperatures of land-based weather stations to compensate for urban warming, and have also corrected several other factors that would cause the observed data to inaccurately represent the true situation.

And the new NOAA study was undertaken to verify if these corrections worked out or not.

From the NOAA report:

"The scientists used an approach termed the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR), a physically based, state-of-the-art data assimilation system that circumvents the problems faced in using weather station temperature data.

"20CR doesn’t have those problems because we never used a thermometer over land to determine air temperatures over land," Compo said.

Given the variables of barometric pressure, sea surface temperature, sea-ice concentration, and carbon dioxide, volcanic and solar variations, the scientists were able to use the 20CR to infer the air temperatures over land across the globe. The derived temperatures agreed both annually and centennially with those found by weather stations."

NOAA global average-temperature graph for past century:

http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/art...al-temperature

UK Met Office global average-temperature graph for past century:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-...d/temp-records

Both show a warming trend.
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  #1510  
Old 21.04.2013, 19:04
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Scientists have made corrections to the recorded temperatures of land-based weather stations to compensate for urban warming, and have also corrected several other factors that would cause the observed data to inaccurately represent the true situation.

And the new NOAA study was undertaken to verify if these corrections worked out or not.

From the NOAA report:

"The scientists used an approach termed the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR), a physically based, state-of-the-art data assimilation system that circumvents the problems faced in using weather station temperature data.

"20CR doesn’t have those problems because we never used a thermometer over land to determine air temperatures over land," Compo said.

Given the variables of barometric pressure, sea surface temperature, sea-ice concentration, and carbon dioxide, volcanic and solar variations, the scientists were able to use the 20CR to infer the air temperatures over land across the globe. The derived temperatures agreed both annually and centennially with those found by weather stations."

NOAA global average-temperature graph for past century:

http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/art...al-temperature

UK Met Office global average-temperature graph for past century:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-...d/temp-records

Both show a warming trend.
I completely agree there was global warming in the last century.

My point is that there is none so far this century. If you look at my post 1503 you will see the trend is flat.


If I can quote from the first link in your post;
"In the next 20 years, scientists project that global average temperature will rise by around 0.2°C (about one-third of a degree Fahrenheit) per decade."

So already this century we should have seen between 0.2C & 0.3C increase; this is a big jump but it has not happened!

In your second link (UK Met Office) that you quote -also take a look at this UK met office statement where they agree there is no global warming this century.

Do you know the story about the Emperors clothes? I worry we are sliding into the same thing
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  #1511  
Old 21.04.2013, 19:38
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I completely agree there was global warming in the last century.

My point is that there is none so far this century. If you look at my post 1503 you will see the trend is flat.


If I can quote from the first link in your post;
"In the next 20 years, scientists project that global average temperature will rise by around 0.2°C (about one-third of a degree Fahrenheit) per decade."

So already this century we should have seen between 0.2C & 0.3C increase; this is a big jump but it has not happened!

In your second link (UK Met Office) that you quote -also take a look at this UK met office statement where they agree there is no global warming this century.

Do you know the story about the Emperors clothes? I worry we are sliding into the same thing
I hope you're right and the temperatures continue to level out.

But I don't think the Met Office actually said that global warming has stopped. Their recent decadal forecast was picked up by certain newspapers and interpreted to mean global warming has stopped.

From the Met Office decadal forecast:

The latest decadal prediction suggests that global temperatures over the next five years are likely to be a little lower than predicted from the previous prediction issued in December 2011.

However, both versions are consistent in predicting that we will continue to see near-record levels of global temperatures in the next few years.

This means temperatures will remain well above the long-term average and we will continue to see temperatures like those which resulted in 2000-2009 being the warmest decade in the instrumental record dating back to 1850.

Decadal predictions are specifically designed to predict fluctuations in the climate system through knowledge of the current climate state and multi-year variability of the oceans.

Small year to year fluctuations such as those that we are seeing in the shorter term five year predictions are expected due to natural variability in the climate system, and have no sustained impact on the long term warming.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/rel...adal-forecasts
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Old 21.04.2013, 19:40
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Scientists have made corrections to the recorded temperatures of land-based weather stations to compensate for urban warming,
I see no statement of that in those links. Did you? Or are you hoping they did?
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Old 21.04.2013, 19:52
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I see no statement of that in those links. Did you? Or are you hoping they did?
Here's a copy/paste from the linked NOAA Research report:

"Urban warming is real, but local," Compo said. "So you need to remove the contribution of it to try and get rid of that unrepresentative warming."

Scientists have made corrections to the recorded temperatures to compensate for urban warming and have also corrected several other factors that would cause the observed data to inaccurately represent the true situation. "The question is: Did those corrections work out?" Compo said.

To answer this question and determine whether the observed warming trend is real and accurate, Compo, CIRES Fellow Prashant Sardeshmukh, NOAA scientist Jeff Whitaker and their colleagues used an entirely different approach to investigate land surface temperature trends."

By the way, the 20CR approach also considered CO2, among other variables.

Should've gone to Specsavers.

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Old 21.04.2013, 23:40
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

About "Small year to year fluctuations such as those that we are seeing in the shorter term five year predictions are expected due to natural variability in the climate system, and have no sustained impact on the long term warming."

We are not talking about 5 year predictions.

There was not seen or forecast to be any global warming in the period 2000 - 2017; this is 17 years not 5 years.

I agree the global climate remained/remains warm for the period 2000 - 2017 but the global temperature is not increasing.

The forecast was 0.2C per decade increase in the period 2000 - 2100 but in the period 2000 - 2017 there was no increase seen or foreseen.

The concept of global warming is that as the level of CO2 rises so global temperatures will rise; there is no temperature rise measured or foreseen for the period 2000 - 2017.
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Old 29.04.2013, 23:04
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Interesting article in Nature here. Not sure it helps this discussion but anyway an interesting study,
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Old 23.06.2013, 22:58
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

New theory is that reducing air pollution is increasing the frequency of hurricanes; not related to global warming - see link.

Always something new to think about......
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Old 24.06.2013, 09:44
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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New theory is that reducing air pollution is increasing the frequency of hurricanes; not related to global warming - see link.

Always something new to think about......
Well, it the website is called the "New Scientist"...
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  #1518  
Old 17.09.2013, 14:13
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

It is difficult to have a discussion about this because people on both sides (for & against the theory) have lost their scientific detachment & it is becoming more like a political/religious discussion.

Some people on the "for" side are concerned about the future so make exaggerated claims to capture attention without solid scientific evidence behind them.

Some examples;
  • There will be more & more violent hurricanes.
    Well here we are more than halfway through the Atlantic hurricane season & only one small one so far.
    According to the US National Hiurrican centre "TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST WAS ABOUT 70 PERCENT BELOW THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE. "
  • The North Pole will be ice free this year
    Well the Arctic had its coldest summer ever observed & a million square miles sea ice more than last year.
  • Exceeding 400 parts-per-million atmospheric CO2 concentration will be a tipping point
    Well some people say we passed that hurdle....
Next big event is the UN IPCC report due soon, rumoured topics are;
  • Why are observed global temperature rises much less than the climate models forecast.
  • How to answer the various governments who want the IPCC to explain the relatively flat last 17 years
  • What temperature rise to forecast for this century; the forecast in the last report looks too high now.
And for those with a sense of humour;
Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of space research at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, has published a paper in which he tracks sunspot activity going back to the 19th century to argue that total sun irradiance is the primary factor responsible for causing climate variations on Earth, not carbon dioxide

He says "what lies ahead in the coming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global and very prolonged temperature drop.”
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Old 17.09.2013, 17:23
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of space research at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, has published a paper in which he tracks sunspot activity going back to the 19th century to argue that total sun irradiance is the primary factor responsible for causing climate variations on Earth, not carbon dioxide
No surprise here.

One issue remains though: How to tax the sun?!?
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Old 17.09.2013, 17:25
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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No surprise here.

One issue remains though: How to tax the sun?!?
Don't worry, I'm sure someone will come up with something.
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