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Old 22.01.2015, 14:33
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

I think it is alway useful to be wary about new data and we don't have to believe something just because someone tells us, but when almost all the experts on the topic, who are as expert as they can be at the moment on the topic, believe we will have problems due to global warming and that we are contributing to global warming I think its fair enoguh to take heed.

Obviously if there is a decent arguement backed up by a similar amount of evidence to counter the scientists who claim the global warming is happening, then I'm all ears. Unfortunately this is not the case though.

With regard to temperatures only rising a degree here and there etc... that is problematic for us. If it affects some other creature in the food chain, it will eventually affect us. For those people that believe that a small temperature shift of a few degrees is not significant, I'm curious to know, why do you buck against the scientists on this one?

I take on board the point about a volcanic eruption, it can be devastating and if the Caldara (Sp) in yellowstone erupts, then we re all screwed, but there is nothing we can do about that. Also just because Volanoes can erupt does not mean we cannot or should not live more substainably.

In my humble opinion global warming is caused by us. I kind of think of any enclosed system and imagine pumping hot gas into it. It stands to reason that this system will warm up. The earth can be considered a much larger closed system in my opinion.

Lastly, I remember a grumpy geography teacher back in secondary school in the early 90s and his words; global warming will only come under control when the insurance companies cannot pay out the claims. When that happens then we'll be forced to act.
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Old 22.01.2015, 14:41
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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I'm pretty sure those clever scientists have ways to check climate historically further back than 150 years.
- Yup, they sure do. But not all scientists are clever. They just know how to present data in a convincing way.
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When you say we're heading for a period of hot weather inbetween 2 peaks of cold weather, what are you basing that on?
- Studies, reports, journals, studying it. I'm only 39, so my experiences won't help with long terms weather patterns.


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You seem to be dismissing the gist of current scientific thinking on this topic but are happy to punt with the hot spell between cold snaps theory. Is it a gut instinct type of thing that is telling you despite vastly higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere (which helps warm us) since the industrial revolution, that somehow, some unknown force will cool the planet down again? The overwhelming body of evidence points to the fact the earth is warming and the speed at which it is warming is very strongly influenced by people.
- You misunderstand my comments. I haven't dismissed the gist at all. I said I'm taking it with a pinch of salt, ie not taking it too seriously. Different people, groups, societies, universities, governments etc have different agendas and slant things to suit their needs.
"Gut Instinct"? No, If you take time to really look (as I have for a number of years now) on balanced opinion and studies then you can find that there have been numerous peaks and troughs in warmer and colder weather that coincide with human activities. As you correctly mention, the Industrial Revolution being one, others being mass mining of gold and tin, lead smelting in the Roman times to name but a few. These have triggered periods of rapid increase in "greenhouse gases" and warming, followed by years of cooling. At present, the popluation of the world is accelerating at unprecedented rate, which is directly related to the production and destruction of many things effecting the earth and it's atmosphere.


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Are all the scientist united in a conspiracy theory against the rest of us? At this point in time, I cannot understand how or why people resist global warming theories backed by over 95% of the scientific community on the planet.
- I'm not suggesting that it is a conspiracy theory in the slightest. What I'm suggesting is that whilst humans are accelerating warming, we are not the sole and main contributors of it.

Sometimes, you just cant rely on information given to us, like the introduction of this thread "The ten warmest years have now occurred since 2000, with the sole exception of 1998 when there was a strong El Nińo..." by my reckoning, 1998 is not in the 2000's. Also, the heading states "the planet's warmest year in the modern record, going all the way back to 1880", so we're being asked to base our fears on a tiny reference point, which all good scientists would know is not exactly the best base to begin your argument from is it???

Last edited by AlexS; 22.01.2015 at 15:02.
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  #1683  
Old 22.01.2015, 15:01
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

In relation to numerous peaks and troughs of temperature change associated with humans, has there been another peak anywhere near similar to that recorded since the industrial revolution? I would be surprised if a human activity during roman times had the same impact as the greatly more populated earth of today.
I also agree that there are other drivers behind global warming, as do the very vast majority of climate experts. However the issue is that the impact we are having since the industrial revolution is a far greater impact than ever before.
In my opinion, if we had no impact (for example) I think we would see temperature fluctuations but I don't think they would swing upwardly as much (without some significant event).
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Old 22.01.2015, 15:10
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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In relation to numerous peaks and troughs of temperature change associated with humans, has there been another peak anywhere near similar to that recorded since the industrial revolution? I would be surprised if a human activity during roman times had the same impact as the greatly more populated earth of today.
I also agree that there are other drivers behind global warming, as do the very vast majority of climate experts. However the issue is that the impact we are having since the industrial revolution is a far greater impact than ever before.
In my opinion, if we had no impact (for example) I think we would see temperature fluctuations but I don't think they would swing upwardly as much (without some significant event).
Mind you those Scientist say they are only 38% sure of their conclusion. You get better odds in Vegas.

So get to the bottom of it. What do you think should be done? Simply feign concern? Should we all live in guilt? Do you want to stop all human activities? Stop passing gas? What?
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Old 22.01.2015, 15:39
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Lots of things can be done to tackle it.
Limiting the use of fossil fuels for an example of a good idea that will never happen.
I would use Nuclear power as an alternative to fossil fuel. In germany, the greens pressured the German government to back out of plans for Nuclear power plants after the tsunami in Japan. I don't agree with that.
I'm sure lots will disagree with me but if it was possible, I'd have no moral issue against dumping nuclear waste in space, far far away. I think it would do less damage to our planet than continual increased reliance on fossil fuels.
Mars might be screwed though.
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Old 22.01.2015, 15:44
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Why don't you lobby on those fronts you believe in, instead of implying there is something wrong with those who don't respond to the fear-mongering? Mind you, you will not get full agreement on those approaches either.
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Old 22.01.2015, 15:58
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Well, there's 7 billion (or is it 8? Ah well...)of us and counting, so it is foolish to say humans don't have an impact on climate. That being said, the sum consensus of all the scientific research I've seen is that we don't know as much as we pretend we do about this, and we're not being entirely honest with ourselves about this fact. Worse still, activists on both sides have thoroughly hijacked the public discussion and often even the research, so we now even have the difficulty of determining what information is good, assuming we're even receiving it. So it's a big mess of "We don't know what we know, and we don't even know what we don't know."

Common sense should prevail, though. If you pollute in excess (*some* pollution may be unavoidable), you're likely going to hurt the environment, which may also cause climate change. If you consume in excess, you are going to deplete the environment, which may also cause climate change. The main goal, then, is to make reasonable and informed (if that's still possible) decisions about consumption and waste. Everyone say, "Duh." All science/demagoguery/cultism/etc aside, it is kinda that simple, right?

Now, I'm sure the "Warmies" will crawl out of their dens and throw all kinds of "research" at me, laced with a smattering of Al Gore, to tell me that ACC is a settled issue, when in fact, it isn't.
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:04
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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Why don't you lobby on those fronts you believe in, instead of implying there is something wrong with those who don't respond to the fear-mongering? Mind you, you will not get full agreement on those approaches either.
I'm not implying anything.
I just don't understand why people buck against the scientific community on this.
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:07
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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I'm not implying anything.
I just don't understand why people buck against the scientific community on this.
Which part of the scientific community? The part that says it is happening, or the part that says it isn't, or the part that say's we don't know, or the part that's not saying anything about it?
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:07
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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Well, there's 7 billion (or is it 8? Ah well...)of us and counting, so it is foolish to say humans don't have an impact on climate. That being said, the sum consensus of all the scientific research I've seen is that we don't know as much as we pretend we do about this, and we're not being entirely honest with ourselves about this fact. Worse still, activists on both sides have thoroughly hijacked the public discussion and often even the research, so we now even have the difficulty of determining what information is good, assuming we're even receiving it. So it's a big mess of "We don't know what we know, and we don't even know what we don't know."

Common sense should prevail, though. If you pollute in excess (*some* pollution may be unavoidable), you're likely going to hurt the environment, which may also cause climate change. If you consume in excess, you are going to deplete the environment, which may also cause climate change. The main goal, then, is to make reasonable and informed (if that's still possible) decisions about consumption and waste. Everyone say, "Duh." All science/demagoguery/cultism/etc aside, it is kinda that simple, right?

Now, I'm sure the "Warmies" will crawl out of their dens and throw all kinds of "research" at me, laced with a smattering of Al Gore, to tell me that ACC is a settled issue, when in fact, it isn't.
Some good points there.
The main one being, some pollution and consumption is ok/manageable.

But left unchecked and we'll have problems.
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:10
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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I'm not implying anything.
I just don't understand why people buck against the scientific community on this.
Probably because some apply critical thinking.
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:13
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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Which part of the scientific community? The part that says it is happening, or the part that says it isn't, or the part that say's we don't know, or the part that's not saying anything about it?
From wiki
In its fourth assessment (AR4 2007) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that scientists were more than 90% certain that most of global warming was being caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities (anthropogenic).[
In 2010 that finding was recognized by the national science academies of all major industrialized nations
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:14
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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Probably because some apply critical thinking.
Or because they ignore logic.
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:15
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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From wiki
In its fourth assessment (AR4 2007) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that scientists were more than 90% certain that most of global warming was being caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities (anthropogenic).[
In 2010 that finding was recognized by the national science academies of all major industrialized nations
Okay... so, long-way-round, only the part that claims it is happening.

Keep in mind that at one time, western countries accepted the Church as purveyor of ultimate Truth, so, while we've gotten better, it's not a convincing criterion to me.
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:18
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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quoting the Daily Mail? that rag? what they know about truth and science would fit on the back of a stamp.

well, I rest my case. Next thing you could quote Page 3 of The Sun (up to last Monday) - it may be more accurate and reliable.
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:21
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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quoting the Daily Mail? that rag? what they know about truth and science would fit on the back of a stamp.

well, I rest my case. Next thing you could quote Page 3 of The Sun (up to last Monday) - it may be more accurate and reliable.
The Daily Mail did not say that, the Scientists said they were only 38% percent sure their findings are true. Do you see the difference in critical thinking? You assume things are true based on its source, rather than facts.

It is a logical fallacy called argumentum ab auctoritate, appeal to authority.
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:30
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Right. So most of us seem to agree that the earth has always experienced periods of dramatic shifts in climate.

Can we also agree that:

1. It is therefore logical to expect another dramatic shift in climate at some point, and

2. The earth's population is increasing exponentially?

It seems strange to me that some people are unwilling to simply even consider that perhaps there is something we can do, at this point, to try to help lessen the impact of the next major shift on our planet and our species.
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:34
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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Right. So most of us seem to agree that the earth has always experienced periods of dramatic shifts in climate.

Can we also agree that:

1. It is therefore logical to expect another dramatic shift in climate at some point, and

2. The earth's population is increasing exponentially?

It seems strange to me that some people are unwilling to simply even consider that perhaps there is something we can do, at this point, to try to help lessen the impact of the next major shift on our planet and our species.
It seems strange to me that some people haven't stopped to ask if said shift is normal, or good, or that our efforts to counteract this shift are also good. They just rush forward in the name of "doing good." How many terrible mistakes have been made by ignorantly "doing good?"
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:36
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

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It seems strange to me that some people are unwilling to simply even consider that perhaps there is something we can do, at this point, to try to help lessen the impact of the next major shift on our planet and our species.
Mass suicide?

Tom
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Old 22.01.2015, 16:39
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Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

I think only loonies deny that climate change is happening. I mean, the climate is changing over time, there's a lot of evidence for this, not just from the recent years. Problems start happening because:

1. Scientists try to measure our impact on the change. It is fair to say that we are impacting it in all likelihood, but the magnitude is difficult to judge because the very small amount of detailed data we have available. We are trying to cross-relate short term changes visible in highly detailed data we are seeing now with data that we inferred from geological records where the resolution of the data is significantly worse and time scales significantly longer.
2. Alarmists who not only want to reduce our impact (which is a fair fight) but actively reverse climate change. This requires us to first establish that the current climate change is _entirely_ induced by us. I believe this assertion is incredibly tough to prove (if not impossible) yet the requested undertaking is more or less beyond not only our understanding of climate but our capabilities too. It assumes that somehow stopping this climate change (not merely removing our effect) is beneficial too, which I find incredibly hypocritical since we can't accurately predict the climate just a few weeks in the future, what hope do we have of making educated changes with impact measured in centuries?
3. Research groups dedicated to climate change need funding and for that they need to keep the topic relevant. Best way to do it is through fear mongering. Quick! Pour more money into our industry (which climate research is) or you are doomed! They have a strong conflict of interest which makes me inherently distrust their findings.
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