Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Off-Topic > Off-Topic > International affairs/politics  
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1721  
Old 22.01.2015, 18:27
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bern
Posts: 70
Groaned at 42 Times in 19 Posts
Thanked 191 Times in 82 Posts
farmadoc has earned some respectfarmadoc has earned some respect
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
are you for real? oh wait that was in the Daily Mail too.

Let's have a look at some more reliable sources:

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
So this link has a CO2 chart at the top which says something about CO2 levels. In fact, CO2 levels havent been this high for 15 million years and that's because we've been releasing "frozen" Co2 which has been stored in living organisms until we've burned them. However apes, biologically similar to us, were doing fine 650 million years ago when the earth was much hotter and there was much more CO2.

I have no trouble believing that if things go the way they're going we'll have increased temperature and sea levels and this will put some cities at risk. But I don't care. It's very gradual, CO2 isn't poison at the levels we're talking about and I'm sure we'll solve the problem given we've got a few hundred years.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank farmadoc for this useful post:
  #1722  
Old 22.01.2015, 18:32
Pancakes's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Zurich-ish
Posts: 4,640
Groaned at 255 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 9,561 Times in 3,589 Posts
Pancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post


I believe in aliens, by the way.
I would hope so, considering that Astrophysicists have found evidence of quite a number of habitable planets.

e.g. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0111133943.htm

Six years of observations of millions of stars now show how common it is for stars to have planets in orbits around them. Using a method that is sensitive to planets that lie in a habitable zone around the host stars, astronomers have discovered that most of the Milky Way's 100 billion stars have planets that are very similar to the Earth-like planets in our own solar system.
Reply With Quote
  #1723  
Old 22.01.2015, 18:35
xynth's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Zurich
Posts: 823
Groaned at 35 Times in 22 Posts
Thanked 1,956 Times in 565 Posts
xynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
But any significant drop in population is most likely going to occur slowly (that is of course unless it is due to climate change or some other natural disaster).
Of course, nobody claimed that the population is suddenly going to drop. It was you who made unsubstantiated claims about exponential population growth and then continued in your incorrect analysis of the growth trends. It is an easy trap to fall into, because often charts are constructed in a misleading way.

Quote:
View Post
This all reminds me of the time when people doubted that the earth revolved around the Sun, even long after there was evidence proving otherwise. You'd think that, by now, we would have learned to trust Science over our own biased "intuitions."
You are the one making biased analysis (deliberate or not) and deriving conclusions based on intuitions.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank xynth for this useful post:
  #1724  
Old 22.01.2015, 18:39
Captain Greybeard's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Sarganserland / NW Lower Penin
Posts: 3,520
Groaned at 43 Times in 37 Posts
Thanked 7,410 Times in 2,314 Posts
Captain Greybeard has a reputation beyond reputeCaptain Greybeard has a reputation beyond reputeCaptain Greybeard has a reputation beyond reputeCaptain Greybeard has a reputation beyond reputeCaptain Greybeard has a reputation beyond reputeCaptain Greybeard has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Back in the 'eighties, the head of an important Swiss Federal environmental authority (I forgot what office and who but that sure can be looked up somewhere) got fired because he said in an interview that most of the forest dieback (Waldsterben) panic was mere media hype.

Back then, day by day you were told on all channels that 30% of the Swiss woods were dying or dead and another 35% severely ill. Of course, everything was scientifically bullet-proof, and most of the science community eagerly supported the panic.

In reality 95% of the whole campaign was hogwash. But that guy did lose his job and many rather stupid regulations got pushed through. Needless to say the journalists that fueled the panic, drove that poor guy out of office and made politicians pass useless laws never got held responsible.

Maybe some day we shall experience something similar with the current topic.
__________________

"This is AMAZING! I have the exact amount of money Joe Biden has cost us playing golf in my sweatpants pocket!" — Kona Lowell

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users would like to thank Captain Greybeard for this useful post:
  #1725  
Old 22.01.2015, 18:49
Pancakes's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Zurich-ish
Posts: 4,640
Groaned at 255 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 9,561 Times in 3,589 Posts
Pancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond repute
Quote:
View Post
Of course, nobody claimed that the population is suddenly going to drop. It was you who made unsubstantiated claims about exponential population growth and then continued in your incorrect analysis of the growth trends. It is an easy trap to fall into, because often charts are constructed in a misleading way.



You are the one making biased analysis (deliberate or not) and deriving conclusions based on intuitions.
No, I'm deriving "conclusions" based on what appears to be the general consensus among scientists.

Trust me, I would love it if climate change was simply a myth. But until I have reasons to believe that it is, I will put my trust in Science over public opinion.

Quote:
View Post
Maybe some day we shall experience something similar with the current topic.
Well, that would certainly be better than the alternative. But quite the international/global conspiracy that would be.

Last edited by 3Wishes; 22.01.2015 at 20:13. Reason: merging successive posts
Reply With Quote
This user groans at Pancakes for this post:
  #1726  
Old 22.01.2015, 19:01
xynth's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Zurich
Posts: 823
Groaned at 35 Times in 22 Posts
Thanked 1,956 Times in 565 Posts
xynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond reputexynth has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
No, I'm deriving "conclusions" based on what appears to be the general consensus among scientists.
That's a fair statement but a bit of critical thought is advisable too. Mainly in light of how easy it is to construct analysis that looks and sounds correct but is ultimately wrong. I'm not a scientist but I have seen many studies making elementary mistakes in their statistical analysis and the way data is presented is often very misleading. This is coupled with the mind's inherent tendency to see patterns everywhere, even in noise.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank xynth for this useful post:
  #1727  
Old 22.01.2015, 19:07
slammer's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Lummerland
Posts: 5,283
Groaned at 146 Times in 102 Posts
Thanked 9,182 Times in 3,480 Posts
slammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

At the end of the day who cares? Screwing and making babies is the way we monkeys roll, Humans will have screwed and eaten the species onto extinction in under a thousand years and Malthus will be sitting on his cloud with a wagging finger saying: "Told you so!!!"
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank slammer for this useful post:
  #1728  
Old 22.01.2015, 19:17
st2lemans's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Lugano
Posts: 31,577
Groaned at 2,353 Times in 1,711 Posts
Thanked 38,371 Times in 18,109 Posts
st2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
No, I'm deriving "conclusions" based on what appears to be the general consensus among scientists.
Consensus ISN'T science.

Tom
Reply With Quote
The following 6 users would like to thank st2lemans for this useful post:
  #1729  
Old 22.01.2015, 19:21
Pancakes's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Zurich-ish
Posts: 4,640
Groaned at 255 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 9,561 Times in 3,589 Posts
Pancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
That's a fair statement but a bit of critical thought is advisable too. Mainly in light of how easy it is to construct analysis that looks and sounds correct but is ultimately wrong. I'm not a scientist but I have seen many studies making elementary mistakes in their statistical analysis and the way data is presented is often very misleading. This is coupled with the mind's inherent tendency to see patterns everywhere, even in noise.
Very true. I am no scientist, either, but I do work for a Professor of Statistics at Zurich University and also work with a number of scientists. We meet for dinners/drinks quite often and discuss various issues outside of work. I know for a fact that they all agree that climate change is a very real threat and something that should not be simply ignored due to skepticism. I guess it's things like this that play a role in my hesitancy to completely disregard it as being a possible threat. Being that I am not a scientist myself, I can really only go by what the scientific minds of those whom I do trust and respect agree upon.
Reply With Quote
  #1730  
Old 22.01.2015, 19:40
Sean Connery's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Zurich
Posts: 5,562
Groaned at 58 Times in 54 Posts
Thanked 7,547 Times in 3,386 Posts
Sean Connery has a reputation beyond reputeSean Connery has a reputation beyond reputeSean Connery has a reputation beyond reputeSean Connery has a reputation beyond reputeSean Connery has a reputation beyond reputeSean Connery has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
The chart in your second link refers to rates of growth. The charts that I am now providing will show you that the actual number of people in the world (the population) is in fact growing at a very rapid rate:
I don't mean to be funny but your graphs seem to be hedging an opinion of the future. So a prediction.

At least one is only 10 years in the future....!
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Sean Connery for this useful post:
  #1731  
Old 22.01.2015, 19:52
Pancakes's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Zurich-ish
Posts: 4,640
Groaned at 255 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 9,561 Times in 3,589 Posts
Pancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
Consensus ISN'T science.

Tom
No, but a scientific consensus is usually one that is based on Science.

Quote:
View Post
I don't mean to be funny but your graphs seem to be hedging an opinion of the future. So a prediction.

At least one is only 10 years in the future....!
A prediction based on current statistics, I would assume. It's not like statisticians just peer into a crystal ball...
Reply With Quote
  #1732  
Old 22.01.2015, 20:44
Sbrinz's Avatar
RIP
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Murten - Morat
Posts: 11,866
Groaned at 563 Times in 354 Posts
Thanked 11,548 Times in 5,941 Posts
Sbrinz has a reputation beyond reputeSbrinz has a reputation beyond reputeSbrinz has a reputation beyond reputeSbrinz has a reputation beyond reputeSbrinz has a reputation beyond reputeSbrinz has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Around 40'000 years ago, London was much warmer than today. On TV recently they reported that the tooth of a hippopotamus was found near Nelson's column in 1960, a picture was shown on TV.

Discovery of interglacial deposits in 1960 Building work undertaken on the south side of the square in 1960 revealed a number of deposits from the last interglacial. Among the findings, dating from approximately 40,000 years ago, were the remains of cave lion, rhinoceros, straight-tusked elephant and hippopotamus.

text above is quoted from here-> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Square

Now if the earth is now warming globally, and there were at least 5 ice ages in our history,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age#Major_ice_ages
how did these catastrophes happen? Did pre-historic man secretly burn fossil fuels? And why did the hippo walk to London? Or did the earth change it's trajectory around the sun?
.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank Sbrinz for this useful post:
  #1733  
Old 22.01.2015, 20:52
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 1,983
Groaned at 69 Times in 52 Posts
Thanked 5,074 Times in 1,802 Posts
crazygringo has a reputation beyond reputecrazygringo has a reputation beyond reputecrazygringo has a reputation beyond reputecrazygringo has a reputation beyond reputecrazygringo has a reputation beyond reputecrazygringo has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
Or because they ignore logic.
actually, ignoring logic is the only explanation for attributing greater than 90% certainty to inductive reasoning that is very likely based upon far less than .000000000001% of the potential variables.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank crazygringo for this useful post:
  #1734  
Old 22.01.2015, 21:18
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 10,568
Groaned at 472 Times in 405 Posts
Thanked 19,378 Times in 10,229 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
are you for real? oh wait that was in the Daily Mail too.

Let's have a look at some more reliable sources:

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

http://ecowatch.com/2014/09/01/green...limate-change/

http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatech...ice/index.html
Ah, the war of not-relevant links.

Here is a link to people who actually measure the sea ice. You will see in my previous post I did actually quote verbatim from this link.

Unlike you I did not post a shotgun of links with no quotes in the vain hope that I would read all through this stuff and maybe find something relevant
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #1735  
Old 22.01.2015, 21:45
Pancakes's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Zurich-ish
Posts: 4,640
Groaned at 255 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 9,561 Times in 3,589 Posts
Pancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
Around 40'000 years ago, London was much warmer than today. On TV recently they reported that the tooth of a hippopotamus was found near Nelson's column in 1960, a picture was shown on TV.

Discovery of interglacial deposits in 1960 Building work undertaken on the south side of the square in 1960 revealed a number of deposits from the last interglacial. Among the findings, dating from approximately 40,000 years ago, were the remains of cave lion, rhinoceros, straight-tusked elephant and hippopotamus.

text above is quoted from here-> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Square

Now if the earth is now warming globally, and there were at least 5 ice ages in our history,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age#Major_ice_ages
how did these catastrophes happen? Did pre-historic man secretly burn fossil fuels? And why did the hippo walk to London? Or did the earth change it's trajectory around the sun?
.
Not sure where you're getting at there. Both sides seem to agree that the the earth has always experienced cooling and warming trends. I think the most common explanation is that the ice ages, etc. were due to variations in heat from the Sun (the amount of incoming solar radiation).

Here is a link to a .pdf article on the website for the NOAA entitled "What Caused the Ice Ages and Other Important Climate Changes Before the Industrial Era?"

http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/educati.../whatcause.pdf

I think that, regardless of whether or not the next (or current) shift is due to human cause, we do still need to consider how such an extreme upset to our ecosystem would affect the 7+ billion people that now inhabit our planet and what we might be able to do to try to control and/or prevent some of those effects.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Pancakes for this useful post:
  #1736  
Old 22.01.2015, 21:54
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 10,568
Groaned at 472 Times in 405 Posts
Thanked 19,378 Times in 10,229 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
Not sure where you're getting at there. Both sides seem to agree that the the earth has always experienced cooling and warming trends. I think the most common explanation is that the ice ages, etc. were due to variations in heat from the Sun (the amount of incoming solar radiation).

Here is a link to a .pdf article on the website for the NOAA entitled "What Caused the Ice Ages and Other Important Climate Changes Before the Industrial Era?"

http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/educati.../whatcause.pdf

I think that, regardless of whether or not the next (or current) shift is due to human cause, we do still need to consider how such an extreme upset to our ecosystem would affect the 7+ billion people that now inhabit our planet and what we might be able to do to try to control and/or prevent some of those effects.
About "we do still need to consider how such an extreme upset to our ecosystem would affect the 7+ billion people"
So you think that with all our science, knowledge and technology we would cope with future climate change less well than the London Hippopotamus?
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #1737  
Old 22.01.2015, 22:04
Pancakes's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Zurich-ish
Posts: 4,640
Groaned at 255 Times in 181 Posts
Thanked 9,561 Times in 3,589 Posts
Pancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond reputePancakes has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
About "we do still need to consider how such an extreme upset to our ecosystem would affect the 7+ billion people"
So you think that with all our science, knowledge and technology we would cope with future climate change less well than the London Hippopotamus?
We are already practically at war over natural resources and are still unable to feed or provide adequate drinking water to everyone here. Sadly, despite how much science and technology has advanced in the last 100+ years, it's difficult for me to remain optimistic that our species will be able to handle such a (potential) disaster rationally or morally.
Reply With Quote
  #1738  
Old 22.01.2015, 22:25
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 1,983
Groaned at 69 Times in 52 Posts
Thanked 5,074 Times in 1,802 Posts
crazygringo has a reputation beyond reputecrazygringo has a reputation beyond reputecrazygringo has a reputation beyond reputecrazygringo has a reputation beyond reputecrazygringo has a reputation beyond reputecrazygringo has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
We are already practically at war over natural resources and are still unable to feed or provide adequate drinking water to everyone here.
sorry, but I hate this argument because it is a myth. every single country I have ever lived in was perfectly capable of feeding itself as well as providing adequate drinking water to its people. in fact, it could be said those countries suffered far more from over-abundance than from lack of resources.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank crazygringo for this useful post:
  #1739  
Old 22.01.2015, 22:46
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Thurgau
Posts: 89
Groaned at 5 Times in 3 Posts
Thanked 133 Times in 67 Posts
Lasers pew pew pew is considered knowledgeableLasers pew pew pew is considered knowledgeableLasers pew pew pew is considered knowledgeable
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
actually, ignoring logic is the only explanation for attributing greater than 90% certainty to inductive reasoning that is very likely based upon far less than .000000000001% of the potential variables.
I think you and I will have to agree to disagree.

I hope you re right.
Reply With Quote
  #1740  
Old 22.01.2015, 23:33
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 10,568
Groaned at 472 Times in 405 Posts
Thanked 19,378 Times in 10,229 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Death By A Thousand Cuts: Earth Enters The ‘Danger Zone’

Quote:
View Post
sorry, but I hate this argument because it is a myth. every single country I have ever lived in was perfectly capable of feeding itself as well as providing adequate drinking water to its people. in fact, it could be said those countries suffered far more from over-abundance than from lack of resources.
About "providing adequate drinking water to its people" If the current experiments to provide fusion reactors turn out well then in twenty years we will have enough cheap, green and "clean" energy to distill sea water and pump it around.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank marton for this useful post:
Reply

Tags
climate change, climategate, co2, global warming




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT +2. The time now is 17:12.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0