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  #1821  
Old 22.02.2015, 15:25
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Every time I hear a global warming alarmist parrot the mantra "the science is settled" I simply remember a few of my favorite things — namely the many failed predictions of that so-called "settled science":

Embarrassing Predictions Haunt the Global-Warming Industry

The big list of failed climate predictions

"Top scientists" blame their computers for predictions exaggerated by 300%

Climate change predictions have been wrong for decades.

You get the picture — I could go on, but I see no point in invoking the alarmists' beloved tactic of ad nauseam repetition. Solid science is reasonably predictive. Alarmist pseudo-science is betrayed by its very failure to be reasonably predictive, which is not mitigated by either the frequency or the volume at which it is arbitrarily and unilaterally repeated that "the science is settled".
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  #1822  
Old 12.03.2015, 23:38
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

According to the ft today (no quote as you have to be a subscriber ) the International Energy Agency has published that 2014 was the first year for 40 years when there was no increase in global carbon dioxide emissions.
Strange that some agencies (not all) are nevertheless claiming that 2014 was the warmest year ever globally.

Sorry I could not find more details; no doubt in the next days.....
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  #1823  
Old 12.03.2015, 23:58
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

I found it! Good stuff.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/828c8f08-c...#axzz3UDNtRSg6
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  #1824  
Old 14.03.2015, 11:29
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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According to the ft today (no quote as you have to be a subscriber ) the International Energy Agency has published that 2014 was the first year for 40 years when there was no increase in global carbon dioxide emissions.
Strange that some agencies (not all) are nevertheless claiming that 2014 was the warmest year ever globally.

Sorry I could not find more details; no doubt in the next days.....
Explain how you think it's strange.
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  #1825  
Old 14.03.2015, 12:47
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Explain how you think it's strange.
Basically the theory of global warming is based on correlation not causation.

It says that as the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases so the global temperature rises in lock step which is exactly what happened in the last half of the last century.
Furthermore that the man made carbon dioxide is a major factor in the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Now we have the the interesting situation that a quarter of the carbon dioxide ever manufactured by man was released this century but without any associated rise in global temperature. The generally accepted forecast for this century was an increase by 0.2C (plus/minus) every decade so we should be seeing an increase of ca. 0.3C by now.

2014 was a year where the IEA claim there was no increase in man made carbon dioxide emissions and this is the year some agencies claim as the warmest. I do see this as strange.

Problem is there is so much rhetoric and exaggeration from both sides in this discussion, For your amusement I attach a link to an article in the Independent from year 2000 headed "Snowfalls [ in UK ] are now just a thing of the past".

And from the same article "According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

Contrariwise
  • The winter of 2010–2011 was a weather event that brought heavy snowfalls, record low temperatures, travel chaos and school disruption to the islands of Britain and Ireland. It included the UK's coldest December since Met Office records began in 1910

And from the Independent today "London snow: UK weather set to get colder as 'Beast from the East' blows in from Siberia " quote "The fountains in Trafalgar Square froze as snow fell in London overnight "
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  #1826  
Old 14.03.2015, 17:01
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Basically the theory of global warming is based on correlation not causation.
Fun with correlations!

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It says that as the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases so the global temperature rises in lock step which is exactly what happened in the last half of the last century.
Furthermore that the man made carbon dioxide is a major factor in the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Now we have the the interesting situation that a quarter of the carbon dioxide ever manufactured by man was released this century but without any associated rise in global temperature. The generally accepted forecast for this century was an increase by 0.2C (plus/minus) every decade so we should be seeing an increase of ca. 0.3C by now.
CO2 lags temperature by 800 years. Is that lock step?

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2014 was a year where the IEA claim there was no increase in man made carbon dioxide emissions and this is the year some agencies claim as the warmest. I do see this as strange.
Recent global warming trends: significant or paused or what?

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Problem is there is so much rhetoric and exaggeration from both sides in this discussion, For your amusement I attach a link to an article in the Independent from year 2000 headed "Snowfalls [ in UK ] are now just a thing of the past".

...
Weather is not climate. Newspaper writers are neither climatologists, nor meteorologists.
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  #1827  
Old 14.03.2015, 18:19
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Weather is not climate. Newspaper writers are neither climatologists, nor meteorologists.
And simply posting unqualified links to a pressure group website (that actually seems to be dead) is not a sound approach to argument.
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  #1828  
Old 14.03.2015, 18:24
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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...Newspaper writers are neither climatologists, nor meteorologists.
I'm neither a newspaper writer, a climatologist, nor a meteorologist (are you??), but I remain 100% unconvinced of any self-described "settled science" that's anything but predictive, not even a little bit.

You and your global warming alarmist pals can deliver all the URLs and "data" you want, but until your precious pet theory starts consistently yielding something remotely close to reliable predictions, the so-called "science" remains anything but "settled".
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  #1829  
Old 14.03.2015, 20:12
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

I knew I shouldn't have posted again to this thread...

Quote:
And simply posting unqualified links to a pressure group website (that actually seems to be dead) is not a sound approach to argument.
I just opened all three of those links no problem.

My take on realclimate.org is that it's run by climatologists. So it's quite close to the science, whatever your opinion of the science might be.

Don't most people on both sides of the "warmist/ denialist" divide get their opinions by reading the mainstream media instead of going closer to the source?
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  #1830  
Old 14.03.2015, 20:41
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Harper (Canada's gov) would love to have you in his team, Texaner et al., who claim there is no global warming trend, and that it's not worth investing in research for energy unrelated to fossil fuels.

Why don't you check and see how much funding has been cut in any field related to atmospheric research in Canada; or what happens when you write a research proposal related to anything environment; or how the conditions for Univ. foreign visitors (scientists are devils) are making it a headache to invite them to Canada for talks. Then come back and tell us how it is. I think he is a Washington puppet. Transcanada Keystone, Kinder Morgan, Enbridge - some keywords if you need help, mkey?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environ...per_government
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  #1831  
Old 14.03.2015, 21:06
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I'm neither a newspaper writer, a climatologist, nor a meteorologist (are you??).
I am none of those things.

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You and your global warming alarmist pals
Who rattled your cage? I am not a GW alarmist. And of course, as you don't know me, and have never met me, you would have no idea about that. Are you now more or less convinced I am a GW alarmist than before you wrote the above?

I'm not 100% convinced about climate change. I'm not 100% convinced of anything. I accept AGW as "true", because I think the weight of the evidence supports it. I don't know how much, nor how fast it is happening either.

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can deliver all the URLs and "data" you want, but until your precious pet theory starts consistently yielding something remotely close to reliable predictions, the so-called "science" remains anything but "settled".
What was I supposed to make of the URI you delivered? Hardly scientific discourse. An antidote to the realclimate.org links perhaps? Like Williams, I wouldn't take Obama's word on anything. What do you have against data, by the way?

For what it's worth, I wasn't attacking marton. He came across as being sceptical, as in undecided. So I pointed to what some orthodox climatologists have said (irrespective the correctness of their science), about most of the points marton raised. The last point was about some MSM reports about the weather. Weather is not the same as climate, whether climate change is happening or not.
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  #1832  
Old 15.03.2015, 03:42
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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...I am not a GW alarmist...
I took care not to accuse you directly of being a GW alarmist. Please read it again.

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...What do you have against data, by the way?...
I have absolutely nothing against data. I have a great deal against 'interpretations' of data involving on-going phenomena (in this case, the earth's ecosystem), which have *NO* scientifically predictive or otherwise relevant value, yet serve as an impetus for increased government control at multiple levels, and increased government plundering via 'energy' taxes.
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  #1833  
Old 15.03.2015, 09:32
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Fun with correlations!



CO2 lags temperature by 800 years. Is that lock step?



Recent global warming trends: significant or paused or what?




Weather is not climate. Newspaper writers are neither climatologists, nor meteorologists.
Thanks,
As you wrote I am not against global warming I am more like the child in the story "The Emperor's clothes"; I just look around and see it is actually not warming.

I do not see the point in providing links to blogs that have complicated explanations about "how there is no pause" when even the world's leading authority on warming (the IPCC) stated in their last report that there is a pause! I quote "In summary, the observed recent warming hiatus, defined as the reduction in GMST trend during 1998–2012 as compared to the trend during 1951–2012......"

There is no agreed theory to explain this pause. Some people had a theory that the oceans were soaking up the extra energy but never explained why the oceans suddenly started to do this. Now NASA has recently completed a 10 year satellite study of the oceans here and concluded there is insufficient evidence of enough ocean warming to support this theory.

Anyway discussion will not solve anything. Simply put global temperatures will either continue to stay around the same or they will increase or they will fall. I have no confidence that anybody can make accurate predictions of what will happen to future temperatures; we will just have to wait and see.


BTW, from what I remember of my school days, water is at its most dense at 4C - I hope NASA remembered this when calculating the expansion of melt water
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  #1834  
Old 15.03.2015, 16:58
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Texaner- isn't great news that Climate Change has totally disappeared from Florida- hurrah. That will help ... I'm sure.

In the meantime, California is facing the biggest dought ever- but still authorities totally refuse to ration water... because if ignored, they suppose it will go away.
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  #1835  
Old 15.03.2015, 17:32
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Texaner- isn't great news that Climate Change has totally disappeared from Florida- hurrah. That will help ... I'm sure.
I don't know what that governor thought he was going to accomplish by doing that. From where I sit, it's just more of the circus most US politics have become.

Quote:
...In the meantime, California is facing the biggest dought ever- but still authorities totally refuse to ration water... because if ignored, they suppose it will go away.
Nevada's water resources are drying up too, but those politicians by and large do what (they think) will keep them in power, period. If they think rationing will erode their political stature, they won't do it.
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Old 15.03.2015, 17:40
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

But won't their political stature, as you call it- not suffer a great deal more when water has all but all gone
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  #1837  
Old 15.03.2015, 17:57
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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But won't their political stature, as you call it- not suffer a great deal more when water has all but all gone
I didn't mean to give the impression that I think they're particularly smart.
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  #1838  
Old 15.03.2015, 18:05
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I don't know what that governor thought he was going to accomplish by doing that. From where I sit, it's just more of the circus most US politics have become.



Nevada's water resources are drying up too, but those politicians by and large do what (they think) will keep them in power, period. If they think rationing will erode their political stature, they won't do it.
About "Nevada's water resources are drying up too" Iran too; look here.

The problem for the Supreme Ayatollah is it will be hard to claim he is God's representative on earth when he has to force the migration of half the population.

Last edited by marton; 15.03.2015 at 18:18.
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  #1839  
Old 15.03.2015, 19:20
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

This post looks like a pretty solid explanation of why there is no real pause in global warming.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...ng-faux-pause/
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  #1840  
Old 15.03.2015, 19:29
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

In fact, digging just a little bit, it seems the idea that there is a pause in the warming is just not there.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/01...rend-stupid-3/
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