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  #1841  
Old 15.03.2015, 19:52
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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In fact, digging just a little bit, it seems the idea that there is a pause in the warming is just not there.
Maybe see if you can dig up a few past predictions, made by "climate change" experts, whose deadlines have come and gone without their flopping?
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  #1842  
Old 15.03.2015, 20:29
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Maybe see if you can dig up a few past predictions, made by "climate change" experts, whose deadlines have come and gone without their flopping?
That's exactly what this is. And the simplest kind. A linear regression (straight line fit) of past data that predicts that the temperature will increase steadily in the future. It holds over many years, including through the climate deniers "pause". Let's see what 2015 brings...
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  #1843  
Old 15.03.2015, 20:42
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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That's exactly what this is. And the simplest kind. A linear regression (straight line fit) of past data that predicts that the temperature will increase steadily in the future. It holds over many years, including through the climate deniers "pause". Let's see what 2015 brings...
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. In the same year, the UN General Assembly endorsed the action by WMO and UNEP in jointly establishing the IPCC.

Strange then that the IPCC (world's leading authority on warming) stated in their last report that there is a pause! I quote "In summary, the observed recent warming hiatus, defined as the reduction in GMST trend during 1998–2012 as compared to the trend during 1951–2012......"

Has IPCC joined the deniers? How could they have missed this simple trend?

Oh Missus - we are all in trouble

Oh and look at the graph published by the UK Met Office here.
These datasets have been developed by the Climatic Research Unit (University of East Anglia) in conjunction with the Hadley Centre (at the UK Met Office), apart from the two SST datasets which were developed solely by the Hadley Centre.
Terrible how these reputable Govt. organisations are joining the deniers and publishing graphs that show the global trend line levelling off in this century.
They should have their funding removed!

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  #1844  
Old 15.03.2015, 21:36
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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That's exactly what this is. And the simplest kind. A linear regression (straight line fit) of past data that predicts that the temperature will increase steadily in the future...
Hmmm. That's one "prediction" — and an "interpretation of the data" that's not exactly 100% supported by either deniers or alarmists (see here, here, here, here and here, for example, listed in no particular order).

So an interpretation of the data that "predicts" a "steady increase" can't even semi-accurately "predict" anything else? Just a "steady increase"? No other more specific predictive explanations, signposts or consequences?

Pardon my — erm, skepticism — but of what real value is a theory and method of data interpretation that so far has produced a heap of false predictions, the only true one worth mentioning, apparently, being one that is disputed by both claims of skeptics and admissions of non-skeptics (please see the links above)?
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Last edited by Texaner; 15.03.2015 at 22:19. Reason: grammar
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  #1845  
Old 22.03.2015, 14:31
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

More real world examples of institutions with money involved rather than opinion pieces pandering to the 50+ conservative crowd

http://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insig...strophe-models

http://www.swissre.com/rethinking/cl...k/?mobile=iPad

Yeah, insurers will make the worst out of any situation, but these are dealing with corporations with money for lawyers trying to keep their costs down.

And just for the actual and real consensus among the scientists:
http://www.swissre.com/rethinking/cl...k/?mobile=iPad

The controvesy is manufactured, the playbook was already established by tobacco and petrol companies keen to keep selling us cancer and dumb kids for the bottom line.
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  #1846  
Old 22.03.2015, 19:07
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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More real world examples of institutions with money involved rather than opinion pieces pandering to the 50+ conservative crowd

http://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insig...strophe-models

http://www.swissre.com/rethinking/cl...k/?mobile=iPad

Yeah, insurers will make the worst out of any situation, but these are dealing with corporations with money for lawyers trying to keep their costs down.

And just for the actual and real consensus among the scientists:
http://www.swissre.com/rethinking/cl...k/?mobile=iPad

The controvesy is manufactured, the playbook was already established by tobacco and petrol companies keen to keep selling us cancer and dumb kids for the bottom line.
Great, more "predictions" ...
"...fewer smaller storms but an increase in the frequency of very large storms ... a four-fold increase in the frequency of years with several severe storms. ...a shift in the latitude of European windstorms towards central Europe (between bands 48N-61N)."

"3%-5% decrease in the total number of potentially damaging storms ... but a 10%-20% increase in the number of larger storms. ...progressive shift of storm tracks to Europe’s central latitudes could multiply the severe storm losses experienced in big European economies, notably France and Germany."

"In the UK ... more flooding"

"...increases in peak river flows from 10% to 15% over the period between 2015 and 2039, rising to a range of 20% to 30% by 2080"

"As well as rivers, sea levels around the UK are projected to carry on rising too ... by around 70cm ... up to 1.9m."
Now we can all watch and learn.
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  #1847  
Old 17.04.2015, 01:50
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Not sure if this is meant seriously but British researchers claim climate change will alter our taste in music, quote here.
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  #1848  
Old 26.04.2015, 13:11
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Another view here about the adjustments to the raw temperature data.

The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) has invited a panel of experts to investigate and report on these controversies [about adjustments].

The GWPF is usually associated with the so-called "denier" side of this debate.
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  #1849  
Old 26.04.2015, 17:45
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

http://uk.businessinsider.com/climat...ty-2015-4?r=US
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global-warming-what-s-behind-screen-shot-2015-04-20-4.17.01-pm.jpg  
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  #1850  
Old 26.04.2015, 19:38
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

It would be nice to see some more detail!

The amount of water in the world is constant.

Increased global temperatures will cause more water evaporation, hence more water vapour in the air, hence more clouds and more rain.
Does not look bad so far?
According to a US Govt report here quote "On average, the world is already getting more precipitation now than it did 100 years ago: 6 percent more in the United States and nearly 2 percent more worldwide."

The possible change is that rain will fall in different places than it does today. So I assume this forecast is all about changes in where rain will fall?
How anybody can forecast this with confidence I do not know?

There is a view that wet areas will get wetter and dry areas drier but so far it is hard to find strong evidence of this.

There are world wide studies of precipitation patterns using satellites and rain gauges but the natural variations make it hard to identify a trend.

There are areas of the world (like California and Iran) which depend heavily on tapping underground water reserves which are running out. This is a big problem but not climate change related.

Glaciers are basically a rainwater storage system. The bottom of the glacier melts and at the top the glacier is fed by rain and snow.
If the glacier is no longer there then it needs to be replaced by another rain water storage system. Probably China has the resources to do this, hopefully India economy will also be strong enough?
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  #1851  
Old 11.05.2015, 14:43
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Quote here, "Antarctica's increasing sea ice restricting access to research stations" Wot! in the Guardian Can't be
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  #1852  
Old 30.05.2015, 11:32
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

University of Alabama’s John Christy (Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science) presented this graph to the US House Committee on Natural Resources on May 15, 2015.
He believes the gap between global climate forecasts from models and reality is getting too wide, more details here.

He is best known, jointly with Roy Spencer, for the first successful development of a satellite temperature record.

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  #1853  
Old 02.06.2015, 07:10
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Updated NASA Data: Global Warming Not Causing Any Polar Ice Retreat
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  #1854  
Old 02.06.2015, 07:43
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?


Study Predicts Decades Of Global Cooling Ahead
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  #1855  
Old 02.06.2015, 17:57
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

There are a whole series of reports based on satellite data that show a very different global warming picture than the reports based on the (adjusted) ground station data, for example, global temperatures are not rising as the models forecast and the basic tenent of global warming that the Earth radiates less heat away each year due to increasing CO2 is not supported by the satellite data of heat radiation.

These reports are publicly available.

I assume NASA are in a difficult situation because the whole global warming topic is so well known due to the promotion by a very senior NASA guy (now ex-NASA) James Hansen.
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Old 02.06.2015, 18:23
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Arctic ice development 1978 to 2007.



I'm not claiming there is or is not a trend here (but I am more on the side of yes) but definitely not claiming to know what's behind it.

The ice volume (not the same as area) does show a bit more of a trend, but maybe also the beginning of a reversal.



Looking at the antarctic, we actually see a real growth in ice area

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Old 02.06.2015, 20:37
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

response to recent article in Forbes. (PDF)
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Old 02.06.2015, 21:33
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

HaHa!

Amogles posts pictures from 2 years ago to "refute" recently updated data. What part of "updated data" doesn't he get?

And BeastOfBodmin posts a "rebuttal" accusing the article's author of "cherry picking" because his topic was polar ice — not (the apparently requisite) "global ice" (talk about trying to hijack a discussion!). Hint: It's not "cherry-picking" to focus on "polar ice" when "polar ice" happens to be your subject!!
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  #1859  
Old 02.06.2015, 21:36
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Would be interesting to see the result using a binomial filter instead of a lineal regression; I suspect in recent years it would be turning upwards
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  #1860  
Old 02.06.2015, 21:45
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

NPR: "Melting ice in the Arctic is creating opportunities... But the area is still mostly frozen…"
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