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  #1901  
Old 20.09.2015, 20:27
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I wonder if you should consider translating your arguments into Chinese, as for how and if the world reacts to a small group of scientists' agenda, it would not really be determined on this thread, let alone in Washington DC, really.
I seriously have no idea what you're reading that you think that you can post that, but please, share it with the world.

This isn't some tiny bunch of scientists for this issue you idiot. How can anyone fool you into thinking that's some kind of rational statement?
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  #1902  
Old 20.09.2015, 20:34
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Nice evasion, acknowledging climate change while completely evading if we have a effect? People die of natural causes, so is there any such thing as murder?
I do not know if we have an effect or not.
As originally a physicist I am always suspicious of theories based on correlation rather than causation (for the same reason I find a lot of medical research less than compelling).

Certainly the GW theory looked good in the last half of the last century; global temperatures were in lock step with CO2 increases.

But this century saw no increase in global temperatures.

Many newspapers write that according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) that 2014 was the warmest year ever.

If you actually visit the WMO site they wrote "After consolidating leading international datasets, WMO noted that the difference in temperature between the warmest years is only a few hundredths of a degree – less than the margin of uncertainty."
"Analysis of the datasets indicates that 2014 was nominally the warmest on record, although there is very little difference between the three hottest years”"

So the temperature differences quoted are less than the margin of error; what can we conclude from this? - not much?

As I wrote, I do not know if we have an effect today or not - bring me the evidence and I will accept it
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  #1903  
Old 20.09.2015, 20:39
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Give yours them, state publicly what's happening. Or is there nothing happening? Is that us navy study just made up? Are ski resorts here not shortening their seasons? Are glaciers getting bigger? The north west passage isn't going to happen?

Is it sun spots? El nino? What?
From where I sit, change happens. Cycles happen. Things warm up and cool down. In cycles. Neither the top nor the bottom of a cycle is cause for panic, government intervention, imposing "carbon taxes" or subsidizing crackpot "energy" industries with money sheared off taxpaying sheep who've been frightened into acquiescence by boilerplate propaganda delivered in lock-step meter by government and media.

Kindly face this fact: A few decades ago, we were being told that because of a recent trend in cooler global temperatures we were headed for an ice age. It was the "settled science" of the day (for those who swallowed it). And it didn't happen. To expect us to believe now that there's really "settled science" about the catastrophic significance of a subsequent trend in the opposite direction is plain naïve. The hyperbolic "global warming climate change" moving-target hypothesis of late has spawned more failed than accurate predictions. (I invite you to provide compelling, unequivocal evidence to the contrary.)

If the mean temp on earth has risen, then it is what it is. It's as easily a temporary and generally harmless natural phenomenon as a human-caused terminal catastrophe. (Why exactly must I adopt your opinion to the contrary, when the theory behind your belief system has spawned a plethora of failed predictions? That's not good science, by the way.) There's no "settled science" on either side, except in the self-righteous, dogmatic-to-the-point-of-bigotry minds of the "true believers" of "climate change" scientism.

Dessert:

Antarctic sea ice hit a 35-year record high just two years ago, after we'd been told for some years already that it was shrinking at an alarming rate.
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  #1904  
Old 21.09.2015, 01:47
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Oh I remember the ice age warnings in the early 70's, and that the oil will run out by the year 2'000. Looking back, we were all just as clueless then as we are today!

However, things are stirring in the Pacific, and the future weather pattern could be extreme:

In August, the NOAA CPC predicted that the 2015 El Niño "could be among the strongest in the historical record dating back to 1950.” In August 2015, the strongest Niño beginning since the start of measurements occurred. Climate scientists has predictively extrapolated the niño episode of 2015 as one of the strongest since at least 100 years. So maybe we should just wait and see?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%...nt_occurrences

I heard tonight that on Sunday 29th November 2015 (I think the date is correct), every city in the world will hold a protest march about Global Warming. Now what improvement is that going to bring?
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  #1905  
Old 21.09.2015, 08:07
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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...I heard tonight that on Sunday 29th November 2015 (I think the date is correct), every city in the world will hold a protest march about Global Warming. Now what improvement is that going to bring?
A refreshing alternative to the tedium of fact-checking and objective science, likely promulgating "the faith" with hyperbolic speeches, banners, posters, lots of media coverage, etc., etc.??

Last edited by Texaner; 21.09.2015 at 21:20.
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  #1906  
Old 21.09.2015, 09:02
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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antarctic sea ice hit a 35-year record high just two years ago, after we'd been told for some years already that it was shrinking at an alarming rate.
Well nothing to do with cooling anyway. Worth noting that the ocean temperatures have been warming at a higher than average rate since 1950 and anyway the sea ice gain here is massively less than the loss in the Arctic. The effect is probably due to changes in ocean currenty and winds making conditions more favourable for ice formation despite the higher temperatures.


Some useful background https://www.skepticalscience.com/inc...termediate.htm
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  #1907  
Old 21.09.2015, 09:18
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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I seriously have no idea what you're reading that you think that you can post that, but please, share it with the world.
Even if everybody was hypnotized into blindly accepting the dubious science, what exactly do you folks want? Turn off the lights and drive less? I imagine most of the CO2 being generated is coming from China by now. Should you perhaps learn Chinese and fanboi the issue on Chinese internet forums, if you have a problem with dissent here?

Have you looked at the science of any prescribed solutions and the value of your own efforts to proselytize? Is it any more effective, say by parts per million, than homeopathy? Charlatanism, isn't it?
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  #1908  
Old 21.09.2015, 10:11
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Oh I remember the ice age warnings in the early 70's, and that the oil will run out by the year 2'000. Looking back, we were all just as clueless then as we are today!

However, things are stirring in the Pacific, and the future weather pattern could be extreme:

In August, the NOAA CPC predicted that the 2015 El Niño "could be among the strongest in the historical record dating back to 1950.” In August 2015, the strongest Niño beginning since the start of measurements occurred. Climate scientists has predictively extrapolated the niño episode of 2015 as one of the strongest since at least 100 years. So maybe we should just wait and see?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%...nt_occurrences

I heard tonight that on Sunday 29th November 2015 (I think the date is correct), every city in the world will hold a protest march about Global Warming. Now what improvement is that going to bring?
  • the strongest in the historical record dating back to 1950
  • the strongest since at least 100 years

Seems to be some conflict about the length of the historical record?
  • every city in the world will hold a protest march about Global Warming. Now what improvement is that going to bring?

The marchers will block the roads and stop those nasty vehicles belching CO2!
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  #1909  
Old 21.09.2015, 10:17
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Well nothing to do with cooling anyway. Worth noting that the ocean temperatures have been warming at a higher than average rate since 1950 and anyway the sea ice gain here is massively less than the loss in the Arctic. The effect is probably due to changes in ocean currenty and winds making conditions more favourable for ice formation despite the higher temperatures.


Some useful background https://www.skepticalscience.com/inc...termediate.htm
  • warming at a higher than average rate since 1950

Do you know what this average rate is and how it was measured; e.g. over how long a time?
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  #1910  
Old 21.09.2015, 11:36
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Don't forget: the same people that predicted the next ice age in the late 20th century, are now predicting a burn up in the 21st century!

Simple thermometers have not changed at all in the past 100 years, however the scientific publishing industry has grown and grown. We now receive screaming headlines every month predicting a change of less than a quarter of a degree will finish the world as we know it, as this quarter is going to grow to 2 or 4 degrees. There are plenty of records telling us the weather was very warm before 1600 AD and it was very cold afterwards around 1700 AD. We didn't have cars then, nor any industry, so what caused these enormous temperature swings? Horse manure?

I am very happy to live with a clean air, anti pollution policy, but let us keep it all in perspective. A fact the Green people choose to ignore: all the nitrous and carbon gases we have saved in one year can be wiped out with just one volcanic eruption. (You can Google for it yourself).
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Old 21.09.2015, 11:49
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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...I heard tonight that on Sunday 29th November 2015 (I think the date is correct), every city in the world will hold a protest march about Global Warming.

Oh what a laugh I had: my partner is keen on going on the march in Solothurn in November, (She does have other more interesting hobbies). She contacted the local protest organiser, a lady in Bellach, who replied "Do you own a car, would you be able to pick me up and take me to Solothurn?"...! (I feel she was thinking, "bugger the planet, I can't take all my banners on the bus!")
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  #1912  
Old 21.09.2015, 11:51
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

We will not stop climate change. Better spend the money on dealing with the consequences of it instead.

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Old 21.09.2015, 15:52
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Old 21.09.2015, 20:41
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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In the 70s and 80s? I recall the science of that time was about Chloroflourocarbons destroying the ozone, toasting all humanity to a crisp. Was that scientific infallibility as well?
Err, yes actually. The science was proved. The chemical industry changed its ways and the problem was more or less eliminated. Exactly how things should happen.
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Old 21.09.2015, 21:20
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Err, yes actually. The science was proved. The chemical industry changed its ways and the problem was more or less eliminated. Exactly how things should happen.
Although the ozone hole was there before the use of CFCs, before it was discovered, and is in fact still there today.
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Old 21.09.2015, 21:23
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

Anyway, say you managed to hypnotize EVERYBODY to suspend their critical minds, and we all now say "Yes, AGW". What next? What is the prescribed plan of action?
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Old 21.09.2015, 21:27
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Simple thermometers have not changed at all in the past 100 years, however the scientific publishing industry has grown and grown. We now receive screaming headlines every month predicting a change of less than a quarter of a degree will finish the world as we know it, as this quarter is going to grow to 2 or 4 degrees. There are plenty of records telling us the weather was very warm before 1600 AD and it was very cold afterwards around 1700 AD. We didn't have cars then, nor any industry, so what caused these enormous temperature swings? Horse manure?
It was caused by God.
Now it is caused by capitalism.
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Old 21.09.2015, 21:42
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Well nothing to do with cooling anyway. Worth noting that the ocean temperatures have been warming at a higher than average rate since 1950...
That must explain the "ice age" predictions of some 3+ decades ago.

The point was and is: Antarctic sea ice hit a 35-year record high just two years ago, after we'd been told for some years already that it was shrinking at an alarming rate.

Who's accountable for that? Who will ever answer for the so-called scientific community's abject failure to practice good science and communicate with the public honestly?

Nobody.

So 'science' promised an 'ice age' which never came, but the 'scientists' responsible went unaccountable — just like modern politicians. (Your declaration that 'the ocean temperatures have been warming at a higher than average rate since 1950' throws yet another judgment against those same 'ice age' 'scientists' since a warming trend that started in the 50s would have precluded the predicted 'ice age'.)

And 'scientists' said all polar ice would be gone years ago, but it's not. In fact, Antarctic sea ice hit a 35-year record high just two years ago, after we'd been told for some years already that it was shrinking at an alarming rate. (Did I mention that already?)

If you have an unequivocal data source to the effect that 'the sea ice gain [in the Antarctic] is massively less than the loss in the Arctic' that would be interesting to see right about now, though an unbiased interpretation isn't likely to fall outside of the cyclical range or capacity of the earth's ecosystem.
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Old 22.09.2015, 18:04
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Err, yes actually. The science was proved. The chemical industry changed its ways and the problem was more or less eliminated. Exactly how things should happen.
Translation: We 'massaged' the data over time so it looked as if we made a profound difference for the sake humanity. You're welcome.
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Old 22.09.2015, 19:19
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Re: Global Warming - what's behind it?

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Anyway, say you managed to hypnotize EVERYBODY to suspend their critical minds, and we all now say "Yes, AGW". What next? What is the prescribed plan of action?
"well. funny you ask. now that you're on board, we have this system of cap and trade worked out which is all rather complex, but in the end will spur green technology. yes a bit wishy washy, but what is concrete is the billions that the banks and our lobby industries would make with carbon credit sales, a CC exchange and financial derivatives heaped on top of that. plus my donors who will sell certain green tech to other companies would have to pay for this. winners and losers, but hey, the winners backed me. so democracy works.

of course, it does seem strange that this is going ahead so quickly on rather one-sided science. you don't see that for any other issue where the benefits are more clear. but hey, there wasn't much money in those other issues."
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