A google translation of an interesting article : http://www.tdg.ch/actu/economie/immi...eve-2011-01-12


Each percent higher in the number of arrivals in Switzerland cause up to 3.5% increase on the price of apartments.

Immigration helps especially rising housing costs in Switzerland.
Each percent higher in the number of newcomers would generate 2.7% increase on the sale price of houses.
And 3.5% on those buildings containing several apartments.

This result emerges from the research of two experts from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Kathrin Degen and Andreas M. Fischer. This study focuses on data collected between 2001 to 2006.

During this period, the authors observed the evolution of prices in 85 regions.
Some are little affected by immigration, others attract the majority of newcomers, starting with the Lake Geneva area. Within seconds exceeded increases of 9% to 15% those found in the former.

Seduction at all times
"Over the last decade, immigration could therefore cause an inflation of over 25% in the sales price of homes. And participation in raising rates would increase to about two thirds.
This is only an extrapolation of the results of our own investigation, but it seems quite plausible, "says Andreas Fischer.

The heavy impact of this exogenous demand on the Lake Geneva area does not seem challenged. "This region has greatly benefited from the immigration of skilled labor. This has accelerated since 2007. A workforce whose incomes are higher than the overall population, " notes Sara Camazzi Weber, Assistant Economic Research Service of Credit Suisse.

The rate of arrivals
can include the strengthening of the trend. Nearly 161,000 foreigners live in the Pays de Vaud in 2000, against 39,000 over last year. The foreign population has grown by more than 28 000 people in the canton of Geneva during the same period.

Market control
Lake Geneva also attracted even in times of economic crisis. And it's not that small teams of high-performing hedge funds fleeing the UK Inland Revenue.
In February 2009, Japan Tobacco International, the third cigarette of the planet, has announced the creation of 400 new jobs over five years in Geneva. Many of its employees will move naturally to the east of the motorway.

The tension becomes so strong in these markets that the term housing bubble is no longer taboo. Thirty-three of the sixty banks surveyed last month by consultant Ernst & Young and confirm the existence of this risk. And 58% of establishments contacted share the view of regulators: the country's banks are showing increasing flexibility in the criteria related to the granting of mortgage loans (except-to-policy).

The threat of overheating worries the general secretary of the Asloca romand Carlo Sommaruga: "The free movement of citizens of the European Union is responsible for a sharp deterioration in the housing market for lower classes. Accompanying measures must be taken urgently to protect it. As well as those on the labor market. "

The donor side, expectations are lower. "The current situation is unhealthy and does not facilitate the work of the commissioners. We must therefore accelerate the construction of new homes, hopes the president of the Swiss real estate professionals, Hugh Hiltpold.

According to Geneva, the upward trend will persist, "Especially in the villas and buildings in PPE (condominiums).

Whether in Geneva or in the region between Nyon and Prangins. "Experts estimate that rents have also increased in Switzerland of at least 15% between 2000 and 2010 because of immigration.

Thanks, yes, good article and I truly believe it.

Several years ago a friend was househunting when the first wave of P&G staff were relocated here, everything got snapped up in hours and the prices just went skyrocketing. It didn't help that such companies often provided financial assistance, downpayments, or more to outprice anyone else looking for housing at that time.

I read last year in the newspaper that Coca-Cola company wanted to bring in Geneva its European Headquarter...... or something like that....

Going to be more and more difficult to find a flat ....

For Swiss, this is either good news or bad news. Good news for Swiss homeowners in the Geneva area but bad news for other Swiss coming in from other parts of the country looking for a new apartment or home.

P.S. My apologies. I skimmed Bertrand's article and assumed it only applied to the Geneva area. In fact, it's for all of Switzerland.

I wonder how the prices in Zurich changed because of the immigration...

It has a particularily high effect of the sale of house, but NOT to the same extent onto the renting-price of apartments

I had several Swiss friends who were looking for larger apartments in Geneva at the time of the arrival of Procter&Gamble. They found it near on impossible and watched prices go up very fast. Although all of them were Anglophiles - they were furious and said that PG had arrangements with Estate Agents, so better apartments were offered directly to them. Of course, since then this has spread all along the Lake, with some resentment and tension, sadly, but understandably. Two of them have moved away with their small children as they just could not find or afford, a suitable apartment to accommodate the kids.

At least not to the extent mentioned in Geneva. As Zurich has enough CH countryside around it. The areas around the lake have become very expensive by average in recent decades and immigration was one of the factors.

but that will follow.

It certainly has in Geneva and all along the lake. Fortunately we bought just over the Jura, where prices are a fraction of t'other side.

bugger

solution is simple: build more f'n houses!

The sad thing is that much of the problem was released on the folk by their own government. Fifteen years ago it was extremely difficult to find a 4 room appartment to rent in Geneva. Now the city has allowed more companies to arrive and the pressure just increases.

Zurich, Lucerne and Bern can expand in all directions, but Basel and Geneva are up against the border.

Bertrand, I think it is time to look for a nice job in Neuchâtel. Rents are low and the locals are pleasant. Swatch are racing ahead this year, can you work for them?

These are the stats that I hate. Biased by design.
Immigration has been stronger in places where there are jobs and growth.
The cause-effect relation is flawed -or at least broken in pieces that don't show the full chain of events-.

Should moving to France across the border be considered an option? Can you reside in France while work in Geneva?

I was an accountant's assistant but I will need to be seriously trained again before I can work again (I used to help people with their fiscal stuff) or change my work domain. (that's what I thinking about)

Loads of people do it, but they are from the UE, I don't know about the "outside" people.

It has become so expensive and difficult to find a house/flat in Geneva that people go to Canton Vaud and nearby France but even here (in France) prices are going up quickly....

We all love to talk about how much we hate the housing shortages in Geneva, Lausanne and Zurich, not to mention the prices. But the Google translation of the article is mostly interesting for its limitations, because it skewers a lot of the information that's clear enough in French, starting with the title, which should be "COULD cause...". We decided not to run this story on GenevaLunch.com after puzzling over why the TDG ran it, mostly because the study came out in April 2010 and covers 2001-2006, but also because the study doesn't appear to say what the article does. Their objective was to show that prices increase even in periods of lower immigration, at a comparable rate.

THE BNS study is mainly about single-family homes, not apartments, and it's about home ownership, not rents, although a table at the end shows rents increased about in line with home price increases (slightly more). The SNB research is worth a read if you want to better understand the background to the Swiss housing market (link below). But keep in mind that in the past four years, since the study, available housing has shrunk much more, and that's where the problem lies: steady, predictable immigration without a comparable increase in housing.

We just ran an article about S&P's rating for Geneva; their study shows 1% immigration per year. According to the BNS study, this should have resulted (in Switzerland or anywhere else) in housing price increases of 2.7% a year, a bit more. S&P's notes that one of the Geneva (canton) gov't's 3 stated priorities is to build more housing by 2014. Doing it is another matter.

Here is the original paper from the SNB, published in English:
http://www.snb.ch/n/mmr/reference/wo...2010_16/source

The TDG usually runs a story along these lines this time of year, such as this one from 2009

http://www.tdg.ch/actu/economie/immi...eve-2009-12-11

or this one a year ago

http://www.tdg.ch/actu/economie/rent...mes-2010-01-03

Excellent. Thanks for the link.

It always the same when you translate an article with google or any other translating software : its not made by a human speaking fluently both languages.....

As for the article itself, its taken from the website, usually a short from the newspaper article which as been written by a journalist.

But where? There is no land around here.

In fact, in Geneva, they've specifically been targeting apt. buildings of medium height, seeing is the infrastructure will support one or two more floors to build above the existing roof. This has been done successfully a number of times already.

I guess the swiss could propose to buy parts of France, this could be aided by some local French separatists movements in the area at the moment.

I'm still waiting for house boats to become the in-thing, and legal, a la the Netherlands, and that could be a partial solution.

When the borders really opened up a few years ago a fairly large number of people took advantage of this, even a lot of swiss, not just expats. However, I know that a number of them has been gradually trickling back to Switzerland as it wasn't the paradise they were expecting. A number of reasons such as permit issues, citizenship issues, not liking living among the French, lack of infrastructure esp. transport, things not so much cheaper, higher taxes, long commutes, quality of life issues.