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  #281  
Old 29.07.2011, 18:35
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Oh, looky-look! Moody have threatened to drop Spain by a click, and Zapatero's just called a general election for November.

Interesting Times, as the old curse goes :shock:
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  #282  
Old 29.07.2011, 19:43
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Which is all the more clever of them so to do, when one considers that GATT finished in the mid-90s
As you can read here
http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/gatt_e/gatt_e.htm
the agreements are still in force (under the banner of WTO)

see also

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allgeme...andelsabkommen

The organisation of course is the WTO, but customs authorities still speak about the GATT agreements, and will continue to so for the foreseeable future. And they are the ones who approve or disapprove import declarations
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  #283  
Old 30.07.2011, 10:12
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Not sure just when the Euro will be worthless enough to be an economical replacement for bathroom tissue or wallpaper, but we're getting awful close. € 1 = CHF 1.13? I just hope that we don't look back in six months when these currencies reach parity and kick ourselves for not grabbing that great exchange rate of July 2011.
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  #284  
Old 30.07.2011, 10:29
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Not sure just when the Euro will be worthless enough to be an economical replacement for bathroom tissue or wallpaper, but we're getting awful close. € 1 = CHF 1.13? I just hope that we don't look back in six months when these currencies reach parity and kick ourselves for not grabbing that great exchange rate of July 2011.
I have 15 Euros in my wallet
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  #285  
Old 30.07.2011, 11:54
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Interesting interview in the local rag this morning, with Janwillem Hacket chief economist at Julius Baer. He confirms that negative interests are seriously being considered, but does not think it would help. Also mentions aligning the CHF with the Euro, but he is says this would be irresponsible, as the Swiss national bank would have to flood the market with CHF, which would cause a loss of fiscal independence and hyperinflation.
He says : 'as long as Switzerland is perceived abroad as a model country, where all is fine from the point of view of exports, low unemployment and the PIB/GDP despite the strength of the CHF, the national Bank will remain powerless to address the situation. Swiss money is treated as gold as a 'refuge' currency. The National Bank will only be able to act when that perception changes. Unfortunately this will only happen when the economical statistics of CH will be clearly worse. A recession is actually forecast for the first half of next year.
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  #286  
Old 30.07.2011, 11:57
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

So you have got between now & the end of the year to sell CHF & buy £,$ & €!
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  #287  
Old 30.07.2011, 21:36
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Not sure just when the Euro will be worthless enough to be an economical replacement for bathroom tissue or wallpaper, but we're getting awful close. € 1 = CHF 1.13? I just hope that we don't look back in six months when these currencies reach parity and kick ourselves for not grabbing that great exchange rate of July 2011.

no no no no the Euro banknotes are nice, and will be quite useful as wallpaper I mean if 100 Euro will just be CHF 0.70 ( I still remember the Italian Lira) which means that I still remember the days when people in Italy saw that table in a restaurant was bit "bad on the ground" simply took out some banknotes and put them under the furniture piece and the matter was settled

************************************************** *******************************


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I have 15 Euros in my wallet
you mean CHF 0.15 ?


************************************************** ***********************************


I mean, it is possible that I was wrong and those shrewd speculators got it right. That the CHF will be the basic value in the future. I suggest that the CS sells some of its premises in central Zurich to the ECB, just to facilitate things.


************************************************** ****************
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  #288  
Old 01.08.2011, 17:14
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

I just looked after dropping 400 Euro in France that I got at 1.13 to 1 last week.

Now it's 1.10 to 1!!! Dollar also sliding down. And it's not even Tuesday!
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  #289  
Old 01.08.2011, 17:24
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

We should probably enjoy this 1st of August celebration. I'm not sure we will have a Switzerland next year.

/end being wolli
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  #290  
Old 01.08.2011, 17:42
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Wont the high swiss franc damage Switzerlands export and tourism so badly that the swiss franc will automatically fall again ?

please enlighten me
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  #291  
Old 01.08.2011, 17:48
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Wont the high swiss franc damage Switzerlands export and tourism so badly that the swiss franc will automatically fall again ?

please enlighten me
I was thinking about luxury watch exports the other day.

Rich people are still rich and still want nice watches. If they don't buy a quality Swiss time piece what will they buy? I can just imaging then walking around in a tacky Seiko or a Casio.


*cue someone (not naming names) to come in and find an obscure kazakhstani watch brand that keeps better time than a Swiss time piece, better quality, more prestigious and only a fraction of the price.*
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  #292  
Old 01.08.2011, 20:18
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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I was thinking about luxury watch exports the other day.

Rich people are still rich and still want nice watches. If they don't buy a quality Swiss time piece what will they buy? I can just imaging then walking around in a tacky Seiko or a Casio.


*
But Rich people will still be rich, therefore they will still buy the expensive Swiss watch brands - Rich people can do this
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  #293  
Old 01.08.2011, 20:26
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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But Rich people will still be rich, therefore they will still buy the expensive Swiss watch brands - Rich people can do this
Isn't that what I said?
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  #294  
Old 01.08.2011, 20:29
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Isn't that what I said?
Yes - great minds think alike - I've been on the Absinthe today
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  #295  
Old 01.08.2011, 20:43
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Wont the high swiss franc damage Switzerlands export and tourism so badly that the swiss franc will automatically fall again ?

please enlighten me
For most currencies this would be indeed true. However, for good and for bad, Switzerland is so often the exception that proves the rule. Switzerland is a banking economy first and foremost and it's currency is a speculative safe haven currency and this speculative power far outstrips the importance of it's industries. So, unless Switzerland begins printing some notes and experiencing a touch of inflation it could be in real trouble.
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  #296  
Old 01.08.2011, 21:18
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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He says : 'as long as Switzerland is perceived abroad as a model country, where all is fine from the point of view of exports, low unemployment and the PIB/GDP despite the strength of the CHF, the national Bank will remain powerless to address the situation. Swiss money is treated as gold as a 'refuge' currency. The National Bank will only be able to act when that perception changes. Unfortunately this will only happen when the economical statistics of CH will be clearly worse. A recession is actually forecast for the first half of next year.
Tourism and exports of engineering and other products are already suffering badly.
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  #297  
Old 01.08.2011, 22:28
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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For most currencies this would be indeed true. However, for good and for bad, Switzerland is so often the exception that proves the rule. Switzerland is a banking economy first and foremost and it's currency is a speculative safe haven currency and this speculative power far outstrips the importance of it's industries. So, unless Switzerland begins printing some notes and experiencing a touch of inflation it could be in real trouble.
Also Nick Hayek demands that the National Bank starts printing banknotes and intervenes, not less than in the past but more, far more than in the past. He demands a definite stance of the National Bank and not that cowardness we see at present. He insists on the reality that Switzerland is NOT a "banking economy" but depends for its economic survival on its export industry and the inbound tourism.
-
****
Here some extracts from the interview, Swatch chief Nick Hayek gave to NZZ am Sonntag :

,,,, the high exchange rate of the CHF will not only for us but for all industrial companies in Switzerland and for the inbound tourism be very difficult .... right, we at Swatch achieved quite good results. But we have to look into the future. There is the problem. We have a speculatively overvalued CHF, and this cannnot be taken lightly ...... no no no, much of the strength of the CHF of course is the result of speculation ... the CHF is MISused , and we do not defend ourselves, this is a dangerous signal ..... definitely. A National Bank has to act long term, and has to act out of an independent and definite position, even if this created shortterm book-losses. The SNB has to make it clear that a further rise of the CHF cannot be accepted ...... yes, we have no alternative than to accept a reduction of our margins, as we otherwise would lose market shares. But I am not so much concerned about our group but about the many industrial companies and about the tourism sector ..... no, the SNB can print money at any time. The SNB has enough money to intervene. The consequences of the high exchange-rate of the CHF are heavily underestimated ..... the Cantons have to decide whether they for any price want to have profits of the SNB even if that means lower tax-incomes for them ..... I would have wished that the Federal Council in this matter showed as much leadership as in the exit from the nuclear energy ... The politicians do not have the courage to negotiate strongly with the EU. ..... and are far too weak in regard to the EU ....

Last edited by Wollishofener; 01.08.2011 at 22:54.
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  #298  
Old 01.08.2011, 22:36
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Exactly - very few people in Switzerland get their living from banking- but on precision engineering, food industry, watch industry, etc, and tourism.
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  #299  
Old 02.08.2011, 21:00
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

I just checked the rate at 20:58 on 2 August and my jaw hit the floor.
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  #300  
Old 02.08.2011, 21:04
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Also Nick Hayek demands that the National Bank starts printing banknotes and intervenes, not less than in the past but more, far more than in the past. He demands a definite stance of the National Bank and not that cowardness we see at present. He insists on the reality that Switzerland is NOT a "banking economy" but depends for its economic survival on its export industry and the inbound tourism.
-
****
Here some extracts from the interview, Swatch chief Nick Hayek gave to NZZ am Sonntag :

,,,, the high exchange rate of the CHF will not only for us but for all industrial companies in Switzerland and for the inbound tourism be very difficult .... right, we at Swatch achieved quite good results. But we have to look into the future. There is the problem. We have a speculatively overvalued CHF, and this cannnot be taken lightly ...... no no no, much of the strength of the CHF of course is the result of speculation ... the CHF is MISused , and we do not defend ourselves, this is a dangerous signal ..... definitely. A National Bank has to act long term, and has to act out of an independent and definite position, even if this created shortterm book-losses. The SNB has to make it clear that a further rise of the CHF cannot be accepted ...... yes, we have no alternative than to accept a reduction of our margins, as we otherwise would lose market shares. But I am not so much concerned about our group but about the many industrial companies and about the tourism sector ..... no, the SNB can print money at any time. The SNB has enough money to intervene. The consequences of the high exchange-rate of the CHF are heavily underestimated ..... the Cantons have to decide whether they for any price want to have profits of the SNB even if that means lower tax-incomes for them ..... I would have wished that the Federal Council in this matter showed as much leadership as in the exit from the nuclear energy ... The politicians do not have the courage to negotiate strongly with the EU. ..... and are far too weak in regard to the EU ....
Obviously a worried man but totally impractical advice.
In 1992 the UK Treasury spent £27bn of reserves in propping up the pound (most of the UK reserves in fact) but failed.

Maggie Thatchers comment was something like "you can't beat the market"

People are buying the CHF because they see it as a safe haven. It is a fantasy that the SNB can do anything to stop this.

Buying the euro to try to reduce the value of the CHF is doomed to fail as already demonstrated by the SNB.

It would be much cheaper to subsidise the effected industries.

Swiss exports are around 200 billion CHF per year. A subsidy for the effected industries would be much cheaper than the exchange losses currently reported in 2010 & 2011.

Anyway the picture on Swiss exports looks pretty good according to Swissinfo
" Swiss exports, show volumes falling from SFr216 billion ($236 billion) in 2008 to SFr187 billion in 2009.
But 2010 saw exports rally to a value of SFr203 billion, while February 2011 saw another rise of ten per cent"
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