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  #441  
Old 10.08.2011, 02:12
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Quote:
Currently under 1.04.
-
and the SALES-rate = 1,08342

So that it was possible to keep it above CHF 1.-- even in the first two days

And now the "moneyprinting" will start. Something Mr Hildebrand possibly even at the start of this week wanted to avoid. But the developments plus the increasing pressures of the economy do not leave him any choice. He has to go ahead. He, just as Mr Leutwyler in the past, will have to invent ways to retreat money back in. Possibly by declaring that all CHF200 notes have an invisible printing mistake !
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  #442  
Old 10.08.2011, 02:39
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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www.oanda.com shows, for ONE Euro
CHF 1,08342
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and the SALES-rate = 1,08342
Sorry, that's bollocks.

Oanda's public web page is simply out of date (by at least 24 hours) and in fact plain wrong. But purchase and sales rates are shown there (bid and ask). In any case, you can work out the purchase price by swapping your pairs. For example, at the moment (10 August, 01:35), Oanda shows:

EUR/CHF Details

EUR/CHF for the 24-hour period ending Monday, Aug 8, 2011 22:00 UTC @ +/- 0%
Selling 1.00000 EUR you get 1.08342 CHF
Buying 1.00000 EUR you pay 1.08381 CHF


Rate Details

EUR/CHF for the 24-hour period ending
Monday, Aug 8, 2011 22:00 UTC

Bid .................Ask
Sell 1 EUR ....... Buy 1 EUR

MIN 1.06168 ... 1.06191
AVG 1.08342.... 1.08381
MAX 1.09914.....1.09941

These values represent the daily average of the Bid and Ask rates OANDA receives from many data sources.


Now reverse the pairs:


CHF/EUR Details

CHF/EUR for the 24-hour period ending Monday, Aug 8, 2011 22:00 UTC @ +/- 0%
Selling 1.00000 CHF you get 0.92267 EUR
Buying 1.00000 CHF you pay 0.92300 EUR

Rate Details

CHF/EUR for the 24-hour period ending
Monday, Aug 8, 2011 22:00 UTC

Bid ................ Ask
Sell 1 CHF .......Buy 1 CHF

MIN 0.90958 ....0.90980
AVG 0.92267 ....0.92300
MAX 0.94170 ....0.94190

These values represent the daily average of the Bid and Ask rates OANDA receives from many data sources.


And if you invert 0.92267 (selling price of CHF 1), you get (guess what): 1.08381 (buying price for EUR 1).

It's just a pity that the numbers are ... wrong.

Last edited by Guest; 10.08.2011 at 02:51.
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  #443  
Old 10.08.2011, 03:04
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Quote:
Sorry, that's bollocks.

Oanda's public web page is simply out of date (by at least 24 hours) and in fact plain wrong. But purchase and sales rates are shown there (bid and ask). In any case, you can work out the purchase price by swapping your pairs. For example, at the moment (10 August, 01:35), Oanda shows:

EUR/CHF Details

EUR/CHF for the 24-hour period ending Monday, Aug 8, 2011 22:00 UTC @ +/- 0%
Selling 1.00000 EUR you get 1.08342 CHF
Buying 1.00000 EUR you pay 1.08381 CHF


Rate Details

EUR/CHF for the 24-hour period ending
Monday, Aug 8, 2011 22:00 UTC

Bid .................Ask
Sell 1 EUR ....... Buy 1 EUR

MIN 1.06168 ... 1.06191
AVG 1.08342.... 1.08381
MAX 1.09914.....1.09941

These values represent the daily average of the Bid and Ask rates OANDA receives from many data sources.


Now reverse the pairs:


CHF/EUR Details

CHF/EUR for the 24-hour period ending Monday, Aug 8, 2011 22:00 UTC @ +/- 0%
Selling 1.00000 CHF you get 0.92267 EUR
Buying 1.00000 CHF you pay 0.92300 EUR

Rate Details

CHF/EUR for the 24-hour period ending
Monday, Aug 8, 2011 22:00 UTC

Bid ................ Ask
Sell 1 CHF .......Buy 1 CHF

MIN 0.90958 ....0.90980
AVG 0.92267 ....0.92300
MAX 0.94170 ....0.94190

These values represent the daily average of the Bid and Ask rates OANDA receives from many data sources.


And if you invert 0.92267 (selling price of CHF 1), you get (guess what): 1.08381 (buying price for EUR 1).

It's just a pity that the numbers are ... wrong.
The UBS purchasing rate for the Euro right now shows 1.0391
which is clearly above 1.00 , and this already now, in spite of the point that the money to be printed is not yet out and that the developments in the USA were putting pressure on the CHF to get UP

Mr Hildebrand acted late, as he, as a typical banker did not care about the economy but got alarmed when UBS and CS made losses due to his inaction. He now however is under sufficient pressure so that he may even go further if required. It is his job to defend the Swiss markets in both the export industry and the inbound tourism. Markets on which this country depends.

What went wrong at UBS and CS ? Simple, their HQs are in Switzerland, AND their expensive real-estate and their expensive infrastructure is in Switzerland. So that they had their incomes in Euros and in US$ but had to do their accounting in CHF. Strange is that if REcalculate their results in either Euros or US$ it would not have been losses at all. But the two BIG-GNOMES are based here and nowhere else.

Last edited by Guest; 10.08.2011 at 09:08. Reason: Corrected quote formatting
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  #444  
Old 10.08.2011, 10:44
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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What went wrong at UBS and CS ? Simple, their HQs are in Switzerland, AND their expensive real-estate and their expensive infrastructure is in Switzerland. So that they had their incomes in Euros and in US$ but had to do their accounting in CHF. Strange is that if REcalculate their results in either Euros or US$ it would not have been losses at all. But the two BIG-GNOMES are based here and nowhere else.
"Expensive real estate and expensive infrastructure in Switzerland" -- irrelevant. Completely. The value/cost of UBS and CS's real estate and infrastructure in Switzerland is an absolute drop in the ocean that is their revenues and other global costs. (Have you seen the cost of real estate in Manhattan? London? Tokyo? Hong Kong? Zürich and Basel are not the world's most expensive places to headquarter a bank.)

But the accounting in CHF and forex losses -- yes, that is the main reason why the Big Two have stumbled. Along with Novartis, Roche and no doubt all the other large Swiss-based global companies.
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  #445  
Old 10.08.2011, 10:51
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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-
and the SALES-rate = 1,08342

So that it was possible to keep it above CHF 1.-- even in the first two days

And now the "moneyprinting" will start. Something Mr Hildebrand possibly even at the start of this week wanted to avoid. But the developments plus the increasing pressures of the economy do not leave him any choice. He has to go ahead. He, just as Mr Leutwyler in the past, will have to invent ways to retreat money back in. Possibly by declaring that all CHF200 notes have an invisible printing mistake !
About "And now the "moneyprinting" will start"

Pity that will not be relevant.

With the ECB printing money like crazy in the eurozone to buy PIIGS bonds & the US already talking about another round of QE moneyprinting - the SNB will be lucky if they can keep the franc where it is now versus euro & $.
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  #446  
Old 10.08.2011, 12:13
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Here's the solution:

Buy two squadrons (24 airplanes) of the Dassault Rafale fighter for cash now, you'll never get a better Euro rate for your CHF.
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  #447  
Old 10.08.2011, 12:21
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

more flagellation from the SNB:

Quote:
The substantial rise in risk aversion on the international financial markets has further intensified the overvaluation of the Swiss franc in the last few days. In the light of these developments, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is taking additional measures against the strength of the Swiss franc. It will again significantly increase the supply of liquidity to the Swiss franc money market. The SNB aims to rapidly expand banks’ sight deposits at the SNB from currently CHF 80 billion to CHF 120 billion.
To accelerate the increase in Swiss franc liquidity, the SNB will additionally conduct foreign exchange swap transactions. The foreign exchange swap is a monetary policy instrument which the SNB uses to create Swiss franc liquidity. It was last employed in autumn 2008.
The massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses a threat to the development of the economy in Switzerland and has further increased the downside risks to price stability. The SNB is keeping a close watch on developments on the foreign exchange market and on financial markets. If necessary, it will take further measures against the strength of the Swiss franc.
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  #448  
Old 10.08.2011, 12:26
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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more flagellation from the SNB:
So... if they are going to flood the money market with more Swiss Francs, that means more CHF for people to buy, right?

Does that translate into making it MORE POSSIBLE for CHF to become a global currency subplanting the USD?
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  #449  
Old 10.08.2011, 12:31
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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So... if they are going to flood the money market with more Swiss Francs, that means more CHF for people to buy, right?

Does that translate into making it MORE POSSIBLE for CHF to become a global currency subplanting the USD?
What it means is that Swiss banks will have less interest in taking deposits at 0 interest earning to them so will most likely push up their charges for holding the deposits. In other words a combination of 0 revenue plus higher accounts maintenance costs will discourage people from buying the Chf.
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  #450  
Old 10.08.2011, 12:39
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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What it means is that Swiss banks will have less interest in taking deposits at 0 interest earning to them so will most likely push up their charges for holding the deposits. In other words a combination of 0 revenue plus higher accounts maintenance costs will discourage people from buying the Chf.
that makes no sense to me, hence whey I am a biological scientist and not a banker.

Is this to say that people will be better off buying CHF and sticking it in a coffee can?
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  #451  
Old 10.08.2011, 12:45
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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that makes no sense to me, hence whey I am a biological scientist and not a banker.

Is this to say that people will be better off buying CHF and sticking it in a coffee can?
Well no, the speculators will likely not buy the franc because they get a zero return so the value will be eroded over time, and they will get charged by the bank. This way it will discourage speculative buying of the swiss franc .It doesnt change your and my situation here in CH.
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  #452  
Old 10.08.2011, 13:09
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Do not forget the rule:

The Impossible Trinity (also known as the Inconsistent Trinity, Triangle of Impossibility or Unholy Trinity) is the Trilemma in international economics suggesting it is impossible to have all three of the following at the same time:
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  #453  
Old 10.08.2011, 13:28
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

So now would be a good time to buy a load of euros right? Sit back a few weeks and sell for chf as the euro strengthens?
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  #454  
Old 10.08.2011, 14:09
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

There are more of us who would like to know answer to that
Nowadays i guess anything is possible, up, down or staying on +- same level for a while. Too many variables to make anything more than a guess.
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  #455  
Old 10.08.2011, 14:32
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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About "And now the "moneyprinting" will start"

Pity that will not be relevant.

With the ECB printing money like crazy in the eurozone to buy PIIGS bonds & the US already talking about another round of QE moneyprinting - the SNB will be lucky if they can keep the franc where it is now versus euro & $.
... but perhaps time to buy stocks in ink and printing press companies?
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  #456  
Old 10.08.2011, 14:35
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Well no, the speculators will likely not buy the franc because they get a zero return so the value will be eroded over time, and they will get charged by the bank. This way it will discourage speculative buying of the swiss franc .It doesnt change your and my situation here in CH.
About "speculators will likely not buy the franc because they get a zero return"

No different from buying gold....

Plus the SNB release of 40 billion CHF into the Swiss economy does not look much versus the amount the ECB are likely pumping into the eurozone while buying PIIGS bonds.
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Old 10.08.2011, 23:18
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Quote:
"Expensive real estate and expensive infrastructure in Switzerland" -- irrelevant. Completely. The value/cost of UBS and CS's real estate and infrastructure in Switzerland is an absolute drop in the ocean that is their revenues and other global costs. (Have you seen the cost of real estate in Manhattan? London? Tokyo? Hong Kong? Zürich and Basel are not the world's most expensive places to headquarter a bank.)

But the accounting in CHF and forex losses -- yes, that is the main reason why the Big Two have stumbled. Along with Novartis, Roche and no doubt all the other large Swiss-based global companies.
Well, the real-estate costs in Switzerland may be simply IRRELEVANT to real global companies like Nestlé or Unilever etc, but the two Swiss banks, even if conducting business internationally, have their full base here in Switzerland, and apparently do their central accounting in CHF in Switzerland. THIS is why Mr Blocher, a gent I otherwise detest but a successful business tycoon, suggested to the banks to transform their structures into holding companies with national subsidiaries of these CH-based holdings. If you are interested into real explanations, go to Blocher TV or one of his WEBsites. And while the man in political terms is a propaganda-man, in business matters he knows the ways. Nestle to all appearances has become a holding-conglomerate long ago. I am not so sure about Novartis and HoffRoche. The SGS Surveillance in Geneva split up already in the early 1930ies and made their national companies, companies inside the group. I could have enquired about SGS into the 1980ies as my Godfather was a director there until his retirement in about 1973, but he passed away in 1991 . So I no longer can do.

ALL THIS does not really explain why the top brigade at UBS and CS apparently were caught by surprise. I mean, they were among the people best informed about the finance business in the world

Their "global costs" ? Why ? Their doing the accounting is CHF means that the "global costs" (in US$, UK£. €) were lower than ever And their revenues ? Difficult to say, as many countries are worse off than a year ago. But NOT that worse off than three months ago. And the details were KNOWN.

Now, please, IS arrogance a condition for getting a job at UBS or CS
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  #458  
Old 10.08.2011, 23:28
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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About "And now the "moneyprinting" will start"

Pity that will not be relevant.

With the ECB printing money like crazy in the eurozone to buy PIIGS bonds & the US already talking about another round of QE moneyprinting - the SNB will be lucky if they can keep the franc where it is now versus euro & $.
People in Economie Suisse, experts in the media and industry-leaders alike say that the SNB printing money flooding the Swiss money market WILL have a serious effect. The ECB printing money ? I don't know whether the ECB is so much interested to press the ECB down. Sure, if they DO, their clout is there. If they are to print money to buy bonds, let them go .

Here however, there is another question. Due to the money-printing, the SNB will be in a position to purchase either € or £ or £ . You may advise Mr Hildebrand about what to do, or if he does not feel like doing anything, to follow the advice of Mr Blocher and get OUT

The aim here is to keep the exchange rates as they are, not more and not less. This still is an ambitious aim, but there is no alternative. The loss of 100'000s of jobs cannot be risked. The collapse of the economy is a real threat

ADD to this that the bankers-community who has to look to find jobs of some of their community in the economy, might for once behave a bit differently from the past, when the bankers-community did not care much about the country, but only for their coffers !
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Old 10.08.2011, 23:42
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Well, the real-estate costs in Switzerland may be simply IRRELEVANT to real global companies like Nestlé or Unilever etc, but the two Swiss banks, even if conducting business internationally, have their full base here in Switzerland, and apparently do their central accounting in CHF in Switzerland. THIS is why Mr Blocher, a gent I otherwise detest but a successful business tycoon, suggested to the banks to transform their structures into holding companies with national subsidiaries of these CH-based holdings. If you are interested into real explanations, go to Blocher TV or one of his WEBsites. And while the man in political terms is a propaganda-man, in business matters he knows the ways. Nestle to all appearances has become a holding-conglomerate long ago. I am not so sure about Novartis and HoffRoche. The SGS Surveillance in Geneva split up already in the early 1930ies and made their national companies, companies inside the group. I could have enquired about SGS into the 1980ies as my Godfather was a director there until his retirement in about 1973, but he passed away in 1991 . So I no longer can do.

ALL THIS does not really explain why the top brigade at UBS and CS apparently were caught by surprise. I mean, they were among the people best informed about the finance business in the world

Their "global costs" ? Why ? Their doing the accounting is CHF means that the "global costs" (in US$, UK£. €) were lower than ever And their revenues ? Difficult to say, as many countries are worse off than a year ago. But NOT that worse off than three months ago. And the details were KNOWN.

Now, please, IS arrogance a condition for getting a job at UBS or CS
Quote:
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People in Economie Suisse, experts in the media and industry-leaders alike say that the SNB printing money flooding the Swiss money market WILL have a serious effect. The ECB printing money ? I don't know whether the ECB is so much interested to press the ECB down. Sure, if they DO, their clout is there. If they are to print money to buy bonds, let them go .

Here however, there is another question. Due to the money-printing, the SNB will be in a position to purchase either € or £ or £ . You may advise Mr Hildebrand about what to do, or if he does not feel like doing anything, to follow the advice of Mr Blocher and get OUT

The aim here is to keep the exchange rates as they are, not more and not less. This still is an ambitious aim, but there is no alternative. The loss of 100'000s of jobs cannot be risked. The collapse of the economy is a real threat

ADD to this that the bankers-community who has to look to find jobs of some of their community in the economy, might for once behave a bit differently from the past, when the bankers-community did not care much about the country, but only for their coffers !
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Old 11.08.2011, 10:44
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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People in Economie Suisse, experts in the media and industry-leaders alike say that the SNB printing money flooding the Swiss money market WILL have a serious effect. The ECB printing money ? I don't know whether the ECB is so much interested to press the ECB down. Sure, if they DO, their clout is there. If they are to print money to buy bonds, let them go .

Here however, there is another question. Due to the money-printing, the SNB will be in a position to purchase either € or £ or £ . You may advise Mr Hildebrand about what to do, or if he does not feel like doing anything, to follow the advice of Mr Blocher and get OUT

The aim here is to keep the exchange rates as they are, not more and not less. This still is an ambitious aim, but there is no alternative. The loss of 100'000s of jobs cannot be risked. The collapse of the economy is a real threat

ADD to this that the bankers-community who has to look to find jobs of some of their community in the economy, might for once behave a bit differently from the past, when the bankers-community did not care much about the country, but only for their coffers !
About "You may advise Mr Hildebrand about what to do"

Fine - Mr Hildebrand please do nothing.
If you choose to do something then the effect will be worse than doing nothing. Your choices are
  • Pump money into the economy which will generate inflation
  • print CHF to buy euros which will generate mammoth losses
  • Make interest rates negative
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