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  #501  
Old 12.08.2011, 00:42
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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about "It seems like the SNB has drawn a line in the sand"
Always the risk that the tide comes in & washes the line away!!
If Mr Hildebrand's line gets "washed away" he also will be washed away, and hoperfully be replaced by a more capable SNB chief I am generally not agreeing with Mr Blocher, but Ayatollah Blocher is quite right when saying that Mr Hildebrand is a person CH could do very well without . Right now, Mr H has his chance to prove that he IS capable really. Fact is that it is the job of the SNB to guard the interests of the national economy of the country; of the country which it ought to serve.
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  #502  
Old 12.08.2011, 08:46
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Nice video of SNB intervention in the 70s - Fritz Leutwiler appears briefly at the end:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DJdqttE44Q
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  #503  
Old 12.08.2011, 09:24
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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If Mr Hildebrand's line gets "washed away" he also will be washed away, and hoperfully be replaced by a more capable SNB chief
he certainly can't be replaced by a less capable one.
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  #504  
Old 12.08.2011, 11:01
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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he certainly can't be replaced by a less capable one.
True indeed
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  #505  
Old 12.08.2011, 11:19
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

well today back to 1.258 on the pound which is looking a little bit better. I do my transfer next week. Holidng Thumbs that the pound will gain a little by then.
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  #506  
Old 12.08.2011, 11:20
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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well today back to 1.258 on the pound which is looking a little bit better. I do my transfer next week. Holidng Thumbs that the pound will gain a little by then.
Strengthened a good bit today.

Was at 1.2 earlier
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  #507  
Old 15.08.2011, 20:32
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

3 month Libor rate for CHF is now 0.05%

Swiss Franc fell quite a lot (relatively) in the last few days? I wonder if it will stay that way?
My guess is it will start rising next week unless the Bundesrat come up with some really startling decision at their Wednesday meeting.
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  #508  
Old 15.08.2011, 21:00
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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3 month Libor rate for CHF is now 0.05%

Swiss Franc fell quite a lot (relatively) in the last few days? I wonder if it will stay that way?
My guess is it will start rising next week unless the Bundesrat come up with some really startling decision at their Wednesday meeting.
No, it will not rise again. First of all, the expansion of the "money-volume" has only just started and is to continue. Second, amazingly WITH the support of the SVP, the SNB will get "green light" to buy even more Euros than ever before. Third, it is well possible that the CHF will be fixed to the Euro ( 1 € = CHF 1.10) definitely, just as it was to the DM some 20 years ago
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  #509  
Old 15.08.2011, 21:16
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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No, it will not rise again. First of all, the expansion of the "money-volume" has only just started and is to continue. Second, amazingly WITH the support of the SVP, the SNB will get "green light" to buy even more Euros than ever before. Third, it is well possible that the CHF will be fixed to the Euro ( 1 € = CHF 1.10) definitely, just as it was to the DM some 20 years ago
Them some fighting words wolli. I've quoted them so you can't change them
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Old 15.08.2011, 21:20
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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No, it will not rise again. First of all, the expansion of the "money-volume" has only just started and is to continue. Second, amazingly WITH the support of the SVP, the SNB will get "green light" to buy even more Euros than ever before. Third, it is well possible that the CHF will be fixed to the Euro ( 1 € = CHF 1.10) definitely, just as it was to the DM some 20 years ago
About "it is well possible that the CHF will be fixed to the Euro ( 1 € = CHF 1.10) " I do not believe the SNB will be ready & able to commit the necessary amount of money needed to support the peg.
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  #511  
Old 15.08.2011, 23:03
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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... it is well possible that the CHF will be fixed to the Euro ( 1 € = CHF 1.10) definitely, just as it was to the DM some 20 years ago
... thereby underscoring Switzerland's sovereignty and independence from Europe ...
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  #512  
Old 15.08.2011, 23:25
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Them some fighting words wolli. I've quoted them so you can't change them
There is no reason to change it, as it is the positions of
- the SNB
- the Federal Council
- the major political parties
- the economy
- the media
- most of the people


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About "it is well possible that the CHF will be fixed to the Euro ( 1 € = CHF 1.10) " I do not believe the SNB will be ready & able to commit the necessary amount of money needed to support the peg.
the SNB may not be ready for it, but is forced by the Federal government now to do it. Add to this that Mr Hildebrand if not being able to commit the amount of money which in fact is around, would have to quit. Overall, Switzerland has no alternative than to "commit" the money.


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  #513  
Old 15.08.2011, 23:31
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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the SNB may not be ready for it, but is forced by the Federal government now to do it. Add to this that Mr Hildebrand if not being able to commit the amount of money which in fact is around, would have to quit. Overall, Switzerland has no alternative than to "commit" the money.
TBH there is little they can do, recession will hit & the problem will fix itself.
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  #514  
Old 15.08.2011, 23:33
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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... thereby underscoring Switzerland's sovereignty and independence from Europe ...
thereby rescuing the economy of Switzerland. Basically, the SNB has to serve Switzerland and not the other way round.
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  #515  
Old 15.08.2011, 23:50
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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TBH there is little they can do, recession will hit & the problem will fix itself.
economy forecasts are like weather forecasts ! I neither agree nor disagree with you. What clearly will be is a slightly higher inflation.

Many markets of the Swiss economy are booming, so that things may not look too bad. A sharp recession in the USA however WILL have a negative impact on both the export industry and inbound tourism. But a thing of the past 20 years has been that economic developments in the USA no longer have the impact upon Europe they had before 1990. There is the re-unification of Europe on one side and the emergence of areas like the Far East and India (etc) as major economic areas.

And back to your statement. What does "there is little they can do" really mean ? They hardly can change the world. But they can keep Switzerland on the markets and stabilize things. And once again, you base your assumption on your forecast that there is a worldwide recession coming up
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  #516  
Old 15.08.2011, 23:57
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If you know there is a dumb player in the markets, people will take advantage, it's just how the Market works!
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  #517  
Old 16.08.2011, 01:16
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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If you know there is a dumb player in the markets, people will take advantage, it's just how the Market works!
A) please be more precise. You here do NOT refer to the markets, you refer just to the finance-markets. While I above referred to THE markets.

B) the market was manipulated by some speculators. They did not work on ideological grounds, neither destructivily nor positively but simply in accordance with their interests.

C) "how the market works" is not the point. If the "finance-market" works in a way destructive to your economy you have to take action to correct the status. And in times of crisis, extraordinary measures are required to tackle extraordinary circumstances !
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  #518  
Old 16.08.2011, 08:00
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Nothing has changed over the last few days since the franc came off it's peak.
The Swiss want to weaken their currency.
The upward pressure on the franc from financial markets are still in place.

The only thing which weakened the franc was talk of a peg. This verbal intervention introduced some uncertainty and temporarily took the steam out of the franc.
In other words it settled things down after a few days of extreme silliness and volatility across markets.

Nobody doubts the Swiss want to see a weaker franc. But in order to get it, the politicians and the SNB will have to put up or shut up soon in terms of:
(a) introducing a peg or (establishing some ceiling); and
(b) demonstrating they have to teeth to defend it, because attempts to depress the franc will surely be tested by currency markets.

If you think the SNB are capable of successfully doing both of those, then sell the franc. But this is a big ask.

By the way, you can't dismiss currency flows into the franc simply as speculation. I would label it as fear. Nobody denies the franc is ridiculously expensive. But like the moves into gold, significant flows have been about capital preservation in a world where the choice is limited - ie money looking for a safe haven during stormy times.

You want to see speculation? That will come in spades if the the SNB announces a peg or ceiling and the markets aren't convinced they have the will or the teeth to defend it.
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  #519  
Old 16.08.2011, 08:27
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Plus the approx. 90 billion CHF which was flooded on the market last week. So how does this money enter the market anyway? I never saw them handing it out in the streets.
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  #520  
Old 16.08.2011, 11:17
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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If you think the SNB are capable of successfully doing both of those, then sell the franc. But this is a big ask.

By the way, you can't dismiss currency flows into the franc simply as speculation. I would label it as fear. Nobody denies the franc is ridiculously expensive. But like the moves into gold, significant flows have been about capital preservation in a world where the choice is limited - ie money looking for a safe haven during stormy times.

You want to see speculation? That will come in spades if the the SNB announces a peg or ceiling and the markets aren't convinced they have the will or the teeth to defend it.
totally agree with the above. this is fear/safe-haven flow and i expect it to continue/resume as the euro and dollar crises continue to develop.

i don't believe that the SNB is willing to take the measures required to defend a peg. certainly not at 1.10.

it would be better if the SNB just stayed out of it. they are just adding to the already high volatility.
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