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  #541  
Old 17.08.2011, 11:49
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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So no peg and no Eurobond.
Back to square one. All we got was talk from politicians and a promise of extra liquidity out of the SNB.
With those two uncertainties out of the way, we can look forward to a stronger franc and a weaker Euro.
Ah - so true

just before the time of announcement of the extra 80 Billion the euro was @ CHF 1.14, it then improved to 1.15 & after fell to under 1.13.

As several people have said; it is not clear if the SNB can influence the euro/CHF rate as they wish unless they take extreme measures (like buying many billion more euro) which will negatively impact all of us.

Quote " This has freaked everybody out. Everybody is shaking their heads at this. The
SNB implicitly told the market that there would be a peg, and now the market is
disappointed," said Sebastien Galy, senior currency strategist at Societe
Generale SA in London, who didn't rule out a peg in the future if the extra
liquidity measures don't work
."

BTW, 3 month Libor now 0.046%
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  #542  
Old 17.08.2011, 11:52
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Last week I owned a boatload of chf.
Wanted the euro to go down the toilet
Thursday bought euros.
Now I want the chf down the toilet.

Market forces
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  #543  
Old 17.08.2011, 12:50
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

You have to understand what the SNB has done. Or rather not done this time round.

Not only have they shied away from a peg, if that was ever really on their agenda. They've also shied away from direct intervention in currency markets.

For all their tough talk, what they have done is promise to flood the banks with liquidity in the hope that will ease credit, push up inflation and therefore depress the franc.

That's not what anybody would call extraordinary measures for extraordinary times. It certainly won't be enough to stem further spikes in the swissie when the next wave of panic causes capital flight to safe havens.
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  #544  
Old 17.08.2011, 14:35
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I am sad this morning. CHF:EUR = 1.15 ; USD:CHF = 1.25 ; CHF:GBP = 1.31.



I'm starting to wonder if SNB overcorrected.
It's pretty obvious when something is mispriced , the markets will always correct the error in the end without any intervention .
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Old 17.08.2011, 14:37
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Famous last words my friend... FLW!

Such a gamble would probably bankrupt the country rather than be hugely profitable! And in fact only then would the currency lose it's safe haven status! It clearly wouldn't lose it's safe haven status if the gamble made them money!

Anyway the whole Swiss Frank thing has nothing to do with the value of Gold and all to do with the stable Swiss economy and the fear gripping everyone outside of it!

The peg is likely to be the solution at least for the short to medium term and we will know for sure in a few hours when we wake up today! All we know now though is that buying the rumour (peg at 1.15) would have paid off big time! Considering it was trading below 1.05 less than a week ago!
The risk of bankruptcy must be real to loose the safe haven status!
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  #546  
Old 17.08.2011, 15:09
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Not only have they shied away from a peg, if that was ever really on their agenda. They've also shied away from direct intervention in currency markets.
They haven't shied away, they just didn't say anything about it in the press release... markets panic a little bit but it hasn't been ruled out!

Analysts are saying it's still a possibility and furthermore central banks don't have a habbit of annoucing what they're about to do until they do it, and for a peg it is expected to happen at weekends to allow for whatever adjustments that need to be made.

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The risk of bankruptcy must be real to loose the safe haven status!
There is madness in your method my friend Good thing you're not in charge of the SNB
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  #547  
Old 17.08.2011, 15:14
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

My view.
The SNB have their hands tied.
They tried to talk the franc down. It didn't work.
Thy tried intervention. It didn't work.
They tried cutting rates to zero. It didn't work.
They're trying to increase liquidity, it won't work.
The only thing left is some sort of peg. But the economic pain isn't bad enough to go there yet.

On the flip side, Germany and France have come out with nothing but rhetoric. And that won't solve the European Debt crisis. Moreover, if they continue like this, it'll take years before the debt crisis is worked out.

In the meantime, a strong franc will be a millstone round Switzerland's economic neck until the European debt crisis is over.

Seeing their own growth slow to zero and watching what's happening in Switzerland, the Germans must be glad they went into the Euro. At least their exports are competitive. If we still had DM, German exporters would be facing the same problems Swiss exporters are now, because DM would be a haven.

As it is, the Swissie is one of the few games in town.
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  #548  
Old 17.08.2011, 16:17
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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it is not worth destroying the country to support exporters. especially since the exporters will be destroyed with the country.
Well said! I fully support this view.
Just because the US and the EU want to inflate their currencies to zero is no reason why Switzerland should do the same. Agreed the actions of foreigners will bring difficulties but better to be left with a functioning currency than do a "Weimar Republic" like those who have no memories (or are following some unknown agenda).
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  #549  
Old 17.08.2011, 16:22
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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A) All markets work this way, we have Migros & CoOp, then Denner & Aldi comes along because it believes the others prices are 'wrong'

B) The SNB tried to manipulate the market by speculation & failed. If you don't have the balls to speculate, don't try it. It's not for the risk averse 'Swiss'

C) All markets work to make money, thats all, for every winner there is a looser. Selling all of CH gold's reserves & heavilly shorting gold would do the trick, they would probably be able to buy back the gold @ 850 or less in a few days.
The problem with central banks is they want to meddle rather than make money so they will always loose. The SNB has to be seen as a risk taker, then the safe haven status will be lost, and the currency will revert to where they want or possibly weaker.
????? Right now the gold price is at 45,260. Where are you? On the moon or is the US
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  #550  
Old 17.08.2011, 19:04
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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There is madness in your method my friend Good thing you're not in charge of the SNB
I did a finnamcial risk tolerance test, I scored higher than 99.999% of the population. I was suprised as I said I would never borrow speculate & would choose a 100% fixed rate mortgage.
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  #551  
Old 17.08.2011, 19:14
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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I did a finnamcial risk tolerance test, I scored higher than 99.999% of the population. I was suprised as I said I would never borrow speculate & would choose a 100% fixed rate mortgage.
Yes but I am sure that your participation at Burning Man may have influenced their rating?
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  #552  
Old 17.08.2011, 19:22
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

I just answered questions like, if the market fell 50% what would you do, BUY SELL HOLD, I would BUY.

Having invested since 1986 I am comfortable with market movements of -50%. I just see it like shopping in the sales, I prefer a bargain to paying full price. I look at the business's that I am buying & ignore what 'Mr Market' thinks today. Planning to retire next year at 50, why work when you can buy assets cheap & sell them when everything looks rosy, repeat every couple of years.......

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Yes but I am sure that your participation at Burning Man may have influenced their rating?
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  #553  
Old 17.08.2011, 19:31
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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I just answered questions like, if the market fell 50% what would you do, BUY SELL HOLD, I would BUY.
Some questions about sense of humour? Sorry, I could not resist.

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Planning to retire next year at 50, why work when you can buy assets cheap & sell them when everything looks rosy, repeat every couple of years.......
Because buying and selling assets is work? Just perhaps not for somebody else?
Personally I don't do any speculation on the markets in the normal sense. My choice of where I live and what sort of work I do is my biggest risk really and as long as I love my work and feel relativley stable in my choice of place to live, I am happy.
Best of luck to you. I admire people that can be financially independent.
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  #554  
Old 17.08.2011, 19:50
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Some questions about sense of humour? Sorry, I could not resist.


Because buying and selling assets is work? Just perhaps not for somebody else?
Personally I don't do any speculation on the markets in the normal sense. My choice of where I live and what sort of work I do is my biggest risk really and as long as I love my work and feel relativley stable in my choice of place to live, I am happy.
Best of luck to you. I admire people that can be financially independent.
Sorry I missed the joke, had a late night.

OK spending 4 hours a month looking after investments, it's hardly 'work', patients is the name of the game!
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Old 17.08.2011, 21:29
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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OK spending 4 hours a month looking after investments, it's hardly 'work', patients is the name of the game!
Successful you may be, but I wouldn't use you as my doctor.
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Old 17.08.2011, 21:52
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Successful you may be, but I wouldn't use you as my doctor.
As a dyslexic you can see why I became a cameraman & not a writer!
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Old 18.08.2011, 02:54
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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So no peg and no Eurobond.
Back to square one. All we got was talk from politicians and a promise of extra liquidity out of the SNB.
With those two uncertainties out of the way, we can look forward to a stronger franc and a weaker Euro.
No, you cannot. Because the SNB has the definite order to increase the money and so preventing the CHF to go up again. And you should NOT underestimate the Euro. The Euro, due to some "shortcomings" among the member-states has come under serious pressure recently, but it basically, as being based on Germany and France, is a "strong" currency (whatever some exchange rates may tell you) . As its exchange-rate now is 30% below its real value, the stronger Euro-countries like Germany, France and also Italy (but NOT Greece), did and do and will take heavy profits out of this factor.

Another factor in CH right now is that nobody in politics takes risks before the elections for both chambers of parliament and for the Federal Council are over. Schneider-Ammann has given the "Black Peter" card to Mrs Widmer-Schlumpf. The man is far too intelligent and experienced not to realize that his "solutions" presented now are just whipped cream. And he also knows that Mrs.W-S in times of need does NOT hesitate to take responsibility. In contrast to him, she is not of the old "state party" but of a newcomer party, and so, her game is a full-risks-game.

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Ah - so true

just before the time of announcement of the extra 80 Billion the euro was @ CHF 1.14, it then improved to 1.15 & after fell to under 1.13.

As several people have said; it is not clear if the SNB can influence the euro/CHF rate as they wish unless they take extreme measures (like buying many billion more euro) which will negatively impact all of us.

Quote " This has freaked everybody out. Everybody is shaking their heads at this. The
SNB implicitly told the market that there would be a peg, and now the market is
disappointed," said Sebastien Galy, senior currency strategist at Societe
Generale SA in London, who didn't rule out a peg in the future if the extra
liquidity measures don't work
."

BTW, 3 month Libor now 0.046%

Sebastien Galy and others apparently have some problems with "reading". There was NOT "no peg" at all. Nobody said so. The man who made an announcement was the Federal Economics Minister. To talk about the peg and FINANCIAL things is NOT his responsiblity but the one of either Mrs Widmer-Schlumpf or Mr Hildebrand. If the € sinks towards 1.10 they may well decide to take THIS as the PEG-rate.

People like the chap above apperantly have not yet learnt that
A) 50% of the economy is psychology
B) economic realities always are a compromise
> What does B) mean ? It means that you have to see two totally different aspects. That the Euro has a "real market value" of CHF 1.45 but has a "real finance market value of CHF -.75, which means an average of CHF 1.10 --- and THIS may be the PEG after all

************************************************** *******************

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Last week I owned a boatload of chf.
Wanted the euro to go down the toilet
Thursday bought euros.
Now I want the chf down the toilet.

Market forces
What forces ???? For the market, whether it is €-CHF 1.14 or 1.11 does not really matter Really NOT. What matters is that the equation gets stabilized between 1.10 and 1.15 . I expected it with Nick Hayek to be like 1.04 - 1.08 but as a certain politician now wants more influence in the union for Zurich , THIS apparently is the result. HIS industries produce more iron-bashing-stuff than the ones of Nick Hayek. The politician I mean attacked SNB president Hildebrand when the chap wanted to keep the € above 1.30, but clearly did NOT expect the rate to drop to below 1.10 . The fear in Switzerland is that Germany on intent allows the € to drop in order to get rid of the CH competition, and everybody here is quite determined to ward off the threat It may sound like a joke but is none

************************************************** *******************************

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You have to understand what the SNB has done. Or rather not done this time round.

Not only have they shied away from a peg, if that was ever really on their agenda. They've also shied away from direct intervention in currency markets.

For all their tough talk, what they have done is promise to flood the banks with liquidity in the hope that will ease credit, push up inflation and therefore depress the franc.

That's not what anybody would call extraordinary measures for extraordinary times. It certainly won't be enough to stem further spikes in the swissie when the next wave of panic causes capital flight to safe havens.
The SNB president was NOT part of the meeting as it was a meeting of the Federal Council. And the person who spoke is just the Federal Economics Minister. Whether the "extraordinary measures" he announced will have ANY effect will decide his political fate. As they most likely will not, the SVP is jubilating about winning back their 2nd seat. Strangely enough, this does not mean a move to the right but one to the left . Why ? Because either a Mrs W-S in need of support and in need to distance herself from her old party moves more toward the centre or she gets replaced by a Green or a Green-Liberal. Sorry Sir, you may not yet have realized it, but it is elections-time in Switzerland this autumn

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My view.
The SNB have their hands tied.
They tried to talk the franc down. It didn't work.
Thy tried intervention. It didn't work.
They tried cutting rates to zero. It didn't work.
They're trying to increase liquidity, it won't work.
The only thing left is some sort of peg. But the economic pain isn't bad enough to go there yet.

On the flip side, Germany and France have come out with nothing but rhetoric. And that won't solve the European Debt crisis. Moreover, if they continue like this, it'll take years before the debt crisis is worked out.

In the meantime, a strong franc will be a millstone round Switzerland's economic neck until the European debt crisis is over.

Seeing their own growth slow to zero and watching what's happening in Switzerland, the Germans must be glad they went into the Euro. At least their exports are competitive. If we still had DM, German exporters would be facing the same problems Swiss exporters are now, because DM would be a haven.

As it is, the Swissie is one of the few games in town.
Sorry, but the increase of the liquidty DID work ! The real question is to what level the PEG ought to be fixed. Much of the economy including the big man from the Zürich Ghana asks for a peg of 1.30 which is a bit extreme while realistic people speak about 1.10 .

You correctly mention the DM. This is why Mr Bodenmann, the previous leader of the SPS, already now pleads in favour of CH to join the Euro. Mr S-A heavily opposes but with his measures of today most likely will fail. Shrewd Mrs W-S allowed him to run full-speed into the offside . AFTER the elections, various people, based on the apparent failure of the CHF to be more than either an object of some speculators or else the object of some federal interventions, will start to push Switzerland towards joining the Euro.

Switzerland may demand the ECB to be moved to Zurich. Germany as being angry about a too heavy dominance there exerted by France may yield, and France, not really liking the Euro to look like a Europeanized DM may agree

************************************************** *************************************

Last edited by Wollishofener; 18.08.2011 at 03:44.
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Old 18.08.2011, 06:56
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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It means that you have to see two totally different aspects. That the Euro has a "real market value" of CHF 1.45 but has a "real finance market value of CHF -.75, which means an average of CHF 1.10 --- and THIS may be the PEG after all
so not only do we have an actual value of something, we also have the real values, real market values and real finance market values! wow.
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Old 18.08.2011, 09:55
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Wolli,
I thanked you for the effort you put into your last post. I don't pretend to understand the internal workings of Swiss politics so it's interesting to get your insights. But I don't share many of your opinions.

When you talk about market values and real values, what you're saying is the franc is overvalued vs the Euro and other currencies. That's correct. It is. And I think that if all the SNB plans to do is flood the market with liquidity and do FX swaps then demand will keep it that way for as long as the global flight of capital to safe havens continues.

As far as the politicians go, over the long term, it doesn't matter which politician it is who says what. In the short term that may affect FX markets temporarily if it raises or dashes expectations. But the overall long term direction depends on the action or inaction of the SNB.

I don't pay much attention to what has happened in currency markets this week. This week has been a breather after the extreme volatility and turbulence of the previous two weeks. When the next wave of fear hits markets, the franc will resume it's rally and if all they do is add liquidity, the SNB will only slow the pace of it's rise. That's my view anyway.
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Old 18.08.2011, 10:06
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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When the next wave of fear hits markets, the franc will resume it's rally and if all they do is add liquidity, the SNB will only slow the pace of it's rise. That's my view anyway.
if that. there could be such huge amounts of money seeking a safe haven, i think all the SNB will end up doing is selling the franc at a subsidised rate. while it would be nice of the SNB to donate the wealth of switzerland to speculators and european savers, if the swiss knew what was going on, they'd probably not be too happy about it.

btw, does anyone know where you can get statistics on the swiss money supply (equivalents of US M1, M2, M3)?

edit: never mind. found it: http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/monpol/m...tat_geldmengen
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