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  #561  
Old 18.08.2011, 10:39
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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if that. there could be such huge amounts of money seeking a safe haven, i think all the SNB will end up doing is selling the franc at a subsidised rate.
Agreed. Increasing liquidity might be effective in more normalized markets. But not for these conditions when panics cause runs to the franc with big directional moves. The SNB doesn't have the right balance of responses to deal with this. They will be overwhelmed.
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  #562  
Old 18.08.2011, 10:56
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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They will be overwhelmed.
That is the point theat CH will loose it's safe haven status & the franc will sink, The SNB can then profit in CHF by closing their possitions.
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  #563  
Old 18.08.2011, 11:03
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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if that. there could be such huge amounts of money seeking a safe haven, i think all the SNB will end up doing is selling the franc at a subsidised rate. while it would be nice of the SNB to donate the wealth of switzerland to speculators and european savers, if the swiss knew what was going on, they'd probably not be too happy about it.

btw, does anyone know where you can get statistics on the swiss money supply (equivalents of US M1, M2, M3)?

edit: never mind. found it: http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/monpol/m...tat_geldmengen
If I understand this graph correctly then SNB just increased M1 by about 50%?

So if you are one of those economists that believe that inflation follows 12/18 months after M1 increase then we are looking at, say, 25% inflation this time next year?

Of course the election will be over before then
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  #564  
Old 18.08.2011, 11:26
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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If I understand this graph correctly then SNB just increased M1 by about 50%?

So if you are one of those economists that believe that inflation follows 12/18 months after M1 increase then we are looking at, say, 25% inflation this time next year?

Of course the election will be over before then
strange thing is that i can't see a graph on that page.
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Old 18.08.2011, 11:34
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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strange thing is that i can't see a graph on that page.
Look here

http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/stat/sta...mon/statmon_B2
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  #566  
Old 18.08.2011, 11:36
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

still nothing. but i see stuff in the pdfs.
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  #567  
Old 18.08.2011, 11:38
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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That is the point theat CH will loose it's safe haven status & the franc will sink, The SNB can then profit in CHF by closing their possitions.
That is a high risk approach; if people stop seeing CH as with safe haven status then it could have ongoing effects on the Swiss banking/finance business.
Of course the SNB will profit but at what cost to the country?
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Old 18.08.2011, 11:40
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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still nothing. but i see stuff in the pdfs.
Sorry, that is what I meant - one pdf has a nice graph of M1, M2 & M3 but only up to June.
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  #569  
Old 18.08.2011, 11:50
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

i'd like to see the update once august is in - could be very interesting.
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Old 18.08.2011, 12:00
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That is a high risk approach; if people stop seeing CH as with safe haven status then it could have ongoing effects on the Swiss banking/finance business.
Of course the SNB will profit but at what cost to the country?
If the SNB was 100% guaranteeing all the Swiss Banks I could see your point.

How many of the banks still have AAA status, I remember SBC Bering very proud of theirs 40 years ago.
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  #571  
Old 18.08.2011, 12:08
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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How many of the banks still have AAA status
How many of them had it 40 years ago?
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  #572  
Old 18.08.2011, 12:11
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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If the SNB was 100% guaranteeing all the Swiss Banks I could see your point.

How many of the banks still have AAA status, I remember SBC Bering very proud of theirs 40 years ago.
It is not about SNB guaranteeing all the Swiss Banks.

It is about "why do people use Swiss banks". Because they are discreet, because the value of your money is safe in Swiss francs, &&&

If the SNB manage to damage confidence in the continued value of the Swiss franc while at the same time the Bundesrat is chipping away at bank secrecy I see money flooding out; & just to help a few exporters......

What are Swiss annual exports worth say 200 billion.

& to protect probably less than half of this the SNB has already committed over 300 billion plus at the cost of probably major inflation next year & possibly a damaged financial sector!!
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  #573  
Old 18.08.2011, 13:29
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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It is about "why do people use Swiss banks". Because they are discreet, because the value of your money is safe in Swiss francs, &&&
!
Historically Swiss banks were discreet, today they happily hand over details of account holders, I sincerly doubt most foreigners that have assets in Swiss banks hold mainly CHF cash balances, most wealth will be in world wide equities. Min account balances are generally very high for non resident account holders except perhaps Post Finance.
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Old 18.08.2011, 13:30
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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How many of them had it 40 years ago?
3 I believe then.
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  #575  
Old 18.08.2011, 13:37
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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so not only do we have an actual value of something, we also have the real values, real market values and real finance market values! wow.
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  #576  
Old 18.08.2011, 13:45
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Sorry, that is what I meant - one pdf has a nice graph of M1, M2 & M3 but only up to June.
I havnt looked at these swiss money supply charts for about 2 years. M3 looks like it is sitting at 7%/ann. The unintended consequences of this 'policy' will surface eventually.
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Old 18.08.2011, 14:45
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Historically Swiss banks were discreet, today they happily hand over details of account holders, I sincerly doubt most foreigners that have assets in Swiss banks hold mainly CHF cash balances, most wealth will be in world wide equities. Min account balances are generally very high for non resident account holders except perhaps Post Finance.
Life would be so boring if we all had the same opinions
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Old 18.08.2011, 14:46
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Life would be so boring if we all had the same opinions
Threads would be very boring!
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Old 18.08.2011, 15:00
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

From today's newspaers
"Morgan Stanley said the US and the eurozone are "hovering dangerously close to a recession over the next 6-12 months"."

Good luck to the SNB at keeping the CHF low; they can only watch the tide come in.
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Old 18.08.2011, 15:11
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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still nothing. but i see stuff in the pdfs.
http://www.snb.ch/ext/stats/statmon/...Geldmengen.pdf
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