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  #41  
Old 14.07.2011, 00:17
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Italy will NOT do so. As the Italian economy is NOT in a bad condition. I look forward to see how Mr Berlusconi is to tackle the problem.

My recommendation to him would be to change from Euro to CHF as currency in Italy
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Italian bond yields are nearing “disaster,” according to Gary Jenkins, head of fixed-income at Evolution Securities Ltd. Greece, Ireland and Portugal all sought international assistance after their 10-year yields rose past 7 percent.
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At almost 120 percent of gross domestic product, Italy’s debt is the EU’s second largest by that measure after Greece. Its 1.8 trillion euros of borrowing in nominal terms is more than the combined debt of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.
Source
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  #42  
Old 14.07.2011, 00:21
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Italy will NOT do so. As the Italian economy is NOT in a bad condition. I look forward to see how Mr Berlusconi is to tackle the problem.

My recommendation to him would be to change from Euro to CHF as currency in Italy
Italy’s government has $2.45 trillion dollars in debt, an amount equal to 120 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However this is a major economy with a healthy export sector and an unemployment rate lower than the United States.
I woud not say Italy's economy is in bad condition but it is vulnerable to a loss of confidence which is what seems to be happening now.
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  #43  
Old 14.07.2011, 00:24
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Italy’s government has $2.45 trillion dollars in debt, an amount equal to 120 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However this is a major economy with a healthy export sector and an unemployment rate lower than the United States.
I woud not say Italy's economy is in bad condition but it is vulnerable to a loss of confidence which is what seems to be happening now.
Which is my point, if it continues this way, Italy won't survive long before it starts to collapse....who knows what will happen next but signs are not that optimistic
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  #44  
Old 14.07.2011, 00:53
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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What really is the difference between Greece and Italy. In Italy, the state is in dire straits, but the economy as such is well off. In Greece, BOTH the state AND the economy are in dire straits.

All the things you mention have been discussed through here in detail. What I state is what the experts say. And this not without reason.

You may be aware that the Italian economy is among the top 10 in the world
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  #45  
Old 14.07.2011, 01:01
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Which is my point, if it continues this way, Italy won't survive long before it starts to collapse....who knows what will happen next but signs are not that optimistic
Italy has survived far worse things in the past 50 years, and the economy is better off than then. The signs are VERY optimistic. Sure, the Berlusconi government now is challenged.

Sure, it will not be easy, but unlike his Greek counterpart, Mr Berlusconi can base any actions on a strong and prosperous economy.
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  #46  
Old 14.07.2011, 01:25
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Italy has survived far worse things in the past 50 years, and the economy is better off than then. The signs are VERY optimistic. Sure, the Berlusconi government now is challenged.

Sure, it will not be easy, but unlike his Greek counterpart, Mr Berlusconi can base any actions on a strong and prosperous economy.
the italian economy has been poor for a long time and doesn't have much signs of improving (quite the contrary). i can't believe anyone would try to claim that the italian economy is well-off. the italian economy is rotten at the core and rotten from the top.
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Old 14.07.2011, 01:38
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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the italian economy has been poor for a long time and doesn't have much signs of improving (quite the contrary). i can't believe anyone would try to claim that the italian economy is well-off. the italian economy is rotten at the core and rotten from the top.
There were good reports on Swiss TV yesterday and specialists in Zurich and Rome agreed that the Italian economy is in a good state. No it was NOT poor for a long time, it was strong for a long time and still is. The Italian economy is not rotten at all. Rotten however is the Italian state, and has been so since the 50ies. It is typical of bankers to need 50 years to realize things
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Old 14.07.2011, 01:44
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Is there anyone who understands what is really happening and can explain it to non-economists? I've read a few econo-blogs but, most of the financial jibber jabber is over my head.
Don't be so hard on yourself. As you can see, nobody really has a clue...

In fact, if I didn't know better, I would have thought today's minutes from boardroom #1 at the SNB made up part of this thread.

Great read though!
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  #49  
Old 14.07.2011, 01:49
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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There were good reports on Swiss TV yesterday and specialists in Zurich and Rome agreed that the Italian economy is in a good state. No it was NOT poor for a long time, it was strong for a long time and still is. The Italian economy is not rotten at all. Rotten however is the Italian state, and has been so since the 50ies. It is typical of bankers to need 50 years to realize things
We will never know till we wake up one day and see it making top news telling us we are all screwed wether it is because of the debt of the US or Italy.....i think we're just living on a time bomb at the moment waiting that it explodes anytime, world today is not as 10 years ago and global markets have shifted 180 degrees.....what i can guess is keeping the world economy holding on atm is just the false promises of better economical future to increase investments in virtual businesses, FX and pushing the consumers into much more credit traps so governments can have someone to blame other than the bankers which will still get their bonuses anyway

Fact is, most world economies today are calculated on debts rather than actual assets / income, everyone owes everyone, it only takes one big to fall and all will follow in no time.
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Old 14.07.2011, 01:50
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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I consulted an experienced former SBC (Swiss Bank Corporation / Schweiz. Bankverein) man who told me that they at SNB the last time had started their interventions some CHF -.20 too early. Next time they may rather purchase US$ or Indian Rupees or or British Pounds or whatever.
You've been had, mate!
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  #51  
Old 14.07.2011, 02:03
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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There were good reports on Swiss TV yesterday and specialists in Zurich and Rome agreed that the Italian economy is in a good state.
if you want to believe that the italian economy is in a good state because you saw some people on tv say it was, then that's up to you.

did these specialist look like those in this clip? i particularly like the clip from 6 minutes to 8 minutes, when they all laugh at peter schiff.



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No it was NOT poor for a long time, it was strong for a long time and still is.
sorry, wolli. you post some interesting stuff on EF, but your grasp of economics is very bad and your past postings on economic topics have been totally wrong, whether it be that it was a good idea for SNB to intervene in EUR/CHF or your belief that they would make money from this intervention.

there's a good reason why italy is one if the 'i's in PIIGS.
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  #52  
Old 14.07.2011, 02:10
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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if you want to believe that the italian economy is in a good state because you saw some people on tv say it was, then that's up to you.

did these specialist look like those in this clip? i particularly like the clip 6 minutes in, when they all laugh at peter schiff.





sorry, wolli. you post some interesting stuff on EF, but your grasp of economics is very bad and your past postings on economic topics have been totally wrong, whether it be that it was a good idea for SNB to intervene in EUR/CHF or your belief that they would make money from this intervention.

there's a good reason why italy is one if the 'i's in PIIGS.
In addition, in the case of Italy, calculating based on numbers is one thing, adding the government, citizens and social factors in the equation totally gives opposite results, fact is, in italy the situation is bad on all levels and it won't take long to collapse....only financial reports shows the opposite and so they did in the US before the F.C....
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  #53  
Old 14.07.2011, 02:17
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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In addition, in the case of Italy, calculating based on numbers is one thing, adding the government, citizens and social factors in the equation totally gives opposite results, fact is, in italy the situation is bad on all levels and it won't take long to collapse....only financial reports shows the opposite and so they did in the US before the F.C....
agreed. you only need to speak to the young chaps in italy trying to get a job to see the desperation there.

if you're interested in financial reads, i have a website here:

http://economiccollapse.co.uk/feeds/

which has some of the feeds i pull in and read.
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  #54  
Old 14.07.2011, 02:19
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Me laughing ! my lousy Swiss AHV pension ,not so lousy any more
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Old 14.07.2011, 10:58
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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There were good reports on Swiss TV yesterday and specialists in Zurich and Rome agreed that the Italian economy is in a good state. No it was NOT poor for a long time, it was strong for a long time and still is. The Italian economy is not rotten at all. Rotten however is the Italian state, and has been so since the 50ies. It is typical of bankers to need 50 years to realize things
One commentators view of the Italian economy (from the Telegraph)
"Real M1 deposits in Italy have fallen at an annual rate of 7pc over the last six months, faster than during the build-up to the great recession in 2008," said Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors.
Such a dramatic contraction of M1 cash and overnight deposits typically heralds a slump six to 12 months later. Italy's economy is already vulnerable – industrial output fell 0.6pc in May, and the forward looking PMI surveys have dropped below the recession line. "

As several people have mentioned it is also a matter of confidence. If people perceive there are problems in Italy, whether true or not, then there will be problems due to lack of investment.

Last edited by marton; 14.07.2011 at 11:00. Reason: stuff about confidence
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  #56  
Old 14.07.2011, 12:00
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

In the end this is not a video game were one can play out the theories. The fact of the matter remains:
1) Every morninge most people get up and go to work.
2) They make money and buy things to survive or to enjoy themselves - this has the effect of employing others and the circle revolves.
3) If all the money in the world becomes worthless, thus useless, tomorrow, there would be a replacement in a few hours. If we did it during the wars and they are doing it in many places in the world today, we as sophisticated consumers would manage.
4) Ofcoarse the governments would never let this happen, in the end there would be a "new Currency" introduction; like during high inflation periods in the former communist countries. Russians went to work for months in the late ninties and did not get paid - we would do the same.
5) Life will go on as it always had.
6) This is why I keep a case of Vodka in the cellar - one must always have things of value at hand.
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Old 14.07.2011, 12:15
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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In the end this is not a video game were one can play out the theories. The fact of the matter remains:
1) Every morninge most people get up and go to work.
2) They make money and buy things to survive or to enjoy themselves - this has the effect of employing others and the circle revolves.
3) If all the money in the world becomes worthless, thus useless, tomorrow, there would be a replacement in a few hours. If we did it during the wars and they are doing it in many places in the world today, we as sophisticated consumers would manage.
4) Ofcoarse the governments would never let this happen, in the end there would be a "new Currency" introduction; like during high inflation periods in the former communist countries. Russians went to work for months in the late ninties and did not get paid - we would do the same.
5) Life will go on as it always had.
6) This is why I keep a case of Vodka in the cellar - one must always have things of value at hand.
I guess few bars of gold / diamonds / collectibles would make better asset. They never lost its value over millenia, can't see any reason why they should do it now
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  #58  
Old 14.07.2011, 12:25
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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I guess few bars of gold / diamonds / collectibles would make better asset. They never lost its value over millenia, can't see any reason why they should do it now
not much point if you have your money in CHF now which is doing a good job of maintaining & increasing value versus "major" currencies.
If the CHf situation changes then maybe then will be a good time to invest in such things.
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Old 14.07.2011, 13:33
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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4) Ofcoarse the governments would never let this happen, in the end there would be a "new Currency" introduction; like during high inflation periods in the former communist countries. Russians went to work for months in the late ninties and did not get paid - we would do the same.
5) Life will go on as it always had.
i think we'll see steady devaluation of many currencies particularly GBP, USD.

while life will go on, it will be tough for those un-prepared and who have no time to adjust e.g. pensioners who will see the value of their pension drop by over 50%.
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Old 14.07.2011, 14:21
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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i think we'll see steady devaluation of many currencies particularly GBP, USD.

while life will go on, it will be tough for those un-prepared and who have no time to adjust e.g. pensioners who will see the value of their pension drop by over 50%.
About "pensioners who will see the value of their pension drop by over 50%"

If you are one of the lucky UK pensioners living in Switzerland then you will already have seen this over the last 4/5 years.
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