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  #641  
Old 06.09.2011, 22:33
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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A) sorry but by "they" you certainly mean the speculators who wanted to bankrupt the country
B) who made a mistake trying what ? If you mean the SNB, you are wrong as they just are doing their duty, and not just try.
It's the SNB who are speculating at this time-
By imposeing an artificial exchange rate, they deserve to bankrupt.
It will be very interesting to see how this pans out when the Euro collapses, it's not if it's just when.
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  #642  
Old 06.09.2011, 22:35
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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It's the SNB who are speculating at this time-
By imposeing an artificial exchange rate, they deserve to bankrupt.
This will happen infront of our own eyes if they don't refrain and decide to isolate their economy from the global massacre happening now.

They're not only throwing gold for free to wild dogs, but also buying the crap of the others.....double trouble that is
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  #643  
Old 06.09.2011, 22:41
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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This may be only my opinion and is not intended to offend anyone, but I consider if a sovereign nation follows another nation in deciding its currency value and expansion of the monetary supply (which leads to inflation) then it has put itself in, let us say, a subordinate role.
It is also my opinion that, if as I suspect the Euro drops and drops, then the CHF will be in a worse position than if it avoided massively inflating the money supply. If the Euro drops to zero value where will the CHF be then?
I can however assure you that I have the interests of Switzerland close to my heart.

Possibly history is seen differently when taught in different schools but the way I learnt it Mr. Petain was convicted as a traitor to his country, France. Naturally, I willingly accept your apology.
The conviction of Maréchal Pétain was clearly the result of the "victor's justice". In view of the military situation of France in 1939, his idea that resistance would only lead to unnecessary bloodshed was not too far off the point.




Many in his defence say he was senile in 1939, while he in reality just was realistic. And too old to share the adventourous plans of a young general of his army
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  #644  
Old 06.09.2011, 22:45
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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A sovereign nation has to use its sovereignty to stop some speculators abroad from trying to determine the fate of its nation, and a sovereign nation has the right to stop them from ruining the national economy.
Nobody's denying their right to do it. Just their ability.


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The problem I see of course is about what the SNB in the longer run is to do with all those Euros, but as the real value of the € is some CHF 1.40, you can expect it to rise again
Is this "real value" with Greece defaulting, or without? What about Italy and Spain? Or in your parallel universe will is the value of a currency entirely independent of the health of that country's economy?

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as the CHF of course still is heavily OVERvalued, as the € has an actual value of at least CHF 1.35
For the 1000th time Wolli: your concept of "actual" value of a currency (whose numerical value changes every time you post it) has got no basis in any "actual" fact, is not used by any other "actual" person, and has no "actual" meaning in this "actual" universe. Or any parallel universes. It's actually meaningless.

If you want to talk about an expected long-term average rates, or something quantifiable to do with purchasing power, fair enough. But this fantasy concept of intrinsic immutable value on which you base the rest of your thinking is just that - a fantasy.

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The SNB, which btw. is NOT a "bank",
I rest my case.
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  #645  
Old 06.09.2011, 22:49
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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A) sorry but by "they" you certainly mean the speculators who wanted to bankrupt the country
B) who made a mistake trying what ? If you mean the SNB, you are wrong as they just are doing their duty, and not just try.
A) No. They were not speculating in order to bankrupt Switzerland. They are trying to move their assets to somewhere safer to avoid their own personal losses - that's it. Admittedly, they probably don't care about the damage they do to the Swiss economy, but saying that that is their aim is paranoid nonsense.

B) You're assuming that their intervention is less damaging than doing nothing. You're also assuming that there exists a way out where the Swiss economy isn't damaged. It could well be the case that the Swiss economy is going to be damaged by these external forces no matter what - and that what the SNB have just chosen to do could make the damage far worse.
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  #646  
Old 06.09.2011, 23:12
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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B) You're assuming that their intervention is less damaging than doing nothing. You're also assuming that there exists a way out where the Swiss economy isn't damaged. It could well be the case that the Swiss economy is going to be damaged by these external forces no matter what - and that what the SNB have just chosen to do could make the damage far worse.
That is especially difficult for politicians to do, i.e. nothing... to stand back and let the natural forces of the free market find the best solution.
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  #647  
Old 06.09.2011, 23:13
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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That is especially difficult for politicians to do, i.e. nothing... to stand back and let the natural forces of the free market find the best solution.
And this is the main issue, it's all about politics
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  #648  
Old 07.09.2011, 01:05
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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It is also my opinion that, if as I suspect the Euro drops and drops, then the CHF will be in a worse position than if it avoided massively inflating the money supply. If the Euro drops to zero value where will the CHF be then?
Don't worry about it... fortunately Switzerland is not in the European Union, it is a fully sovereign nation with a fully independent sovereign central bank. Yesterday's decision was taken by this central bank unilaterally and the commitement to the new policy depends solely on that same central bank, it is not a peg, it is not an ERMII. Which means that whenever it thinks the policy might no longer be suitable for the country, for example because the value of the euro drops to zero and that would hurt the same Swiss economy it is now trying to protect (by the way, it is actually fighting against deflationary preassures caused by the decrease of the cost of imports, not against potential recession, as prices are its only worry), then it would without any hesitation change the policy as it has the right to do it.

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For the 1000th time Wolli: your concept of "actual" value of a currency (whose numerical value changes every time you post it) has got no basis in any "actual" fact, is not used by any other "actual" person, and has no "actual" meaning in this "actual" universe. Or any parallel universes. It's actually meaningless.
Notice he's talking about exchange rates, and not about the "value" of a currency. If a product price was 1.5CHF in Basel, and €1 across the border, and there was nothing else in the economy but that product, then the fair exchange rate of the franc would be 1.5CHF/€. I guess that's what he's talking about.
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  #649  
Old 07.09.2011, 07:08
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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For the 1000th time Wolli: your concept of "actual" value of a currency (whose numerical value changes every time you post it) has got no basis in any "actual" fact, is not used by any other "actual" person, and has no "actual" meaning in this "actual" universe. Or any parallel universes. It's actually meaningless.
Unfortunately for Swiss persons speaking English there are some words in German that sound and look very similar to English words. Aktuell /actual is one such example. Especially in Swiss dialect 'aktuell' means very specifically "at this moment in time, current, up-to-date" and not the English sense of 'real'. The German word for "actual" is eigentlich or wirklich.

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  #650  
Old 07.09.2011, 07:40
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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I don't blame SNB but if i'm in their i would have supported the local economy and businesses which makes more sense rather than attempting a poker flop when you don't know how the other players will act......i assure you, investors are gonna hold to their CHF till SNB fails to do anything anymore, cannot hold on their attempt to peg the CHF and rates are reversed back high dramatically....i would personally give it 20 to 35 days before the chf hits parity....anything else would be a miracle really
You can only support the economy, or rather save the economy on which the country depends by assuring an exchange-rate which keeps the country competitive. Just to "support local business" would be to surrender and would be useless folklore. No, Switzerland has to hold out until the speculators (they are NOT investors, as investors would not buy CHF but would buy real-estate or company-shares in Switzerland) stop their BS. Not a miracle, but as Mr Leutwyler has shown 30 years ago, simply the result of decent work of the SNB. PLUS, what now has come, a solid support from the political side. As long as a 27,5% party obstructed, not much could be done. That party however has come under severe presssure from its own industrialists.

The SNB in fact is far from having used all its instruments. And another deal on taxes, this time with Italy, comes in handy fairly shortly.

I btw. if talking about investors, I do NOT mean short-term stock-exchange players, but people who either massively and long-term (years) purchase shareholdings or purchase companies or real-estate directly and also in a long-term sense

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Is this "real value" with Greece defaulting, or without? What about Italy and Spain? Or in your parallel universe will is the value of a currency entirely independent of the health of that country's economy?

For the 1000th time Wolli: your concept of "actual" value of a currency (whose numerical value changes every time you post it) has got no basis in any "actual" fact, is not used by any other "actual" person, and has no "actual" meaning in this "actual" universe. Or any parallel universes. It's actually meaningless.

I rest my case.
By REAL VALUE I mean the value it has for the domestic consumers. It indeed is absolutely impossible to do anything with that. I therefore would have favoured a minima of 1.10 as 1.20 still is fairly high. But they have decided for 1.20 and now will have to play along

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A) No. They were not speculating in order to bankrupt Switzerland. They are trying to move their assets to somewhere safer to avoid their own personal losses - that's it. Admittedly, they probably don't care about the damage they do to the Swiss economy, but saying that that is their aim is paranoid nonsense.

B) You're assuming that their intervention is less damaging than doing nothing. You're also assuming that there exists a way out where the Swiss economy isn't damaged. It could well be the case that the Swiss economy is going to be damaged by these external forces no matter what - and that what the SNB have just chosen to do could make the damage far worse.
A) It of course was/is their intention to save their money, but their moves WERE to bankrupt Switzerland. So that the defence has to be to try to cause losses for the speculators !

B) The SNB intervention is NOT damaging but absolutely vital and necessary. The "external forces" damaging the Swiss economy of course are weak economies no longer able to do purchases. The SNB does not cause economic collapses to other economies. To say that is paranoid indeed.

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That is especially difficult for politicians to do, i.e. nothing... to stand back and let the natural forces of the free market find the best solution.
Those "natural forces of the free market" were in reality driving Switzerland out of the markets, on which the country depends.

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  #651  
Old 07.09.2011, 07:51
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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And this is the main issue, it's all about politics
It IS about politics as politics for months blocked the SNB. Why ? Because the SVP was opposed to a leftwinger at the top of the SNB. And because the trades-unionists and the industrialists needed a long time to unite forces. And to bury their differences.

And if you speak about politics. It was politics which lead the union to bail out the UBS. It would have been far better to let the forces of the free market play, as they would have found the best solution for the UBS. You cannot be favouring a state intervention of Monday and Wednesday and free market forces on the other days ! The UBS thereby has become an economic dinosaur !
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  #652  
Old 07.09.2011, 08:05
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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This will happen infront of our own eyes if they don't refrain and decide to isolate their economy from the global massacre happening now.
Three quarters of Switzerland's trade is with Europe. They can't isolate their economy from that. What they are seeking to do is isolate themselves from the more extreme consequences of safe haven money flows - a direct consequence of the global massacre.
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  #653  
Old 07.09.2011, 08:17
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Speaka de englishhhh bitte, what does this mean, really, for the non-economist?
The SNB will print massive amounts of swiss francs to buy Euro denominated assets (things like bonds) to support the price of the Euro on foreign exchange markets. This practice normally causes an overhang in the monetary supply which puts inflationary pressures in an economy, especially in a low interest rate environment.
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  #654  
Old 07.09.2011, 08:32
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Three quarters of Switzerland's trade is with Europe. They can't isolate their economy from that. What they are seeking to do is isolate themselves from the more extreme consequences of safe haven money flows - a direct consequence of the qe.
there you go
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  #655  
Old 07.09.2011, 08:34
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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The SNB will print massive amounts of swiss francs to buy Euro denominated assets (things like bonds) to support the price of the Euro on foreign exchange markets. This practice normally causes an overhang in the monetary supply which puts inflationary pressures in an economy, especially in a low interest rate environment.
Thanks I can understand that sort of thing. I suppose it's too early to tell just how much and how soon such inflation will show up at the local Migros, yes?
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  #656  
Old 07.09.2011, 08:41
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

What some of you chaps need to understand is that what the SNB has exposed Switzerland inc to, is not simply a cost of limiting the currency value by intervention, but the real cost will be the deterioration of the asset that they have to buy whilst limiting the Chf value.
Markets fix the value of any good/commodity or currency, not central banks.
When a countrys national interest rate is at 0 it means the government has tried and failed to resist strength in its currency.

The reality is that a cheaper option would be to use those reserves by învesting /subsidising if necessary the national economy, rather than fighting a market which is 1000 times larger than its own GDP.
The very real danger is that those eurobonds that SNB will buy with its Euros, will decrease subtsantially in value terms and the country will be faced with a much larger loss than simple exchange rate calculation as some have considered.
This could theoretically cause a downgrade in its own ratings, thereby increasing the cost of borrowing as in the PIGIS economies that we have seen or even in the USA
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  #657  
Old 07.09.2011, 09:06
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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B) The SNB intervention is NOT damaging but absolutely vital and necessary. The "external forces" damaging the Swiss economy of course are weak economies no longer able to do purchases. The SNB does not cause economic collapses to other economies. To say that is paranoid indeed.
You don't know that. Nobody does, including the SNB. There is no guaranteed winning strategy. The payoff depends on the future economic performance of Greece, Italy, Germany and factors we don't even know are relevant yet.

However, you cannot rule out the possibility that what the SNB has just done is worse than nothing. Yes, Switzerland's economy would probably have been damaged by doing nothing. But this intervention has the potential to do even worse damage.

Each time the rate is driven against 1.20, the SNB is going to have to perform actions which will drive up the inflation rate. That is not a game they can play infinitely often. In the worst case scenario, they keep doing this until the inflation rate becomes unbearable and have to remove the peg and let the exchange rate settle. In that case they are no better off on the exchange rate than they would have been without intervening, but with an inflation problem they otherwise wouldn't have had.
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  #658  
Old 07.09.2011, 09:16
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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No, Switzerland has to hold out until the speculators (they are NOT investors, as investors would not buy CHF but would buy real-estate or company-shares in Switzerland) stop their BS.
Any sane foreign investor would avoid property in CH like the plague. It's a totally illiquid market & there is no 'value' in the prices. There are also tax consequences when selling.

The would also avoid Swiss companies & the possibility of profits growth looks slim.
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Old 07.09.2011, 09:20
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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You don't know that. Nobody does, including the SNB. There is no guaranteed winning strategy. The payoff depends on the future economic performance of Greece, Italy, Germany and factors we don't even know are relevant yet.

However, you cannot rule out the possibility that what the SNB has just done is worse than nothing. Yes, Switzerland's economy would probably have been damaged by doing nothing. But this intervention has the potential to do even worse damage.

Each time the rate is driven against 1.20, the SNB is going to have to perform actions which will drive up the inflation rate. That is not a game they can play infinitely often. In the worst case scenario, they keep doing this until the inflation rate becomes unbearable and have to remove the peg and let the exchange rate settle. In that case they are no better off on the exchange rate than they would have been without intervening, but with an inflation problem they otherwise wouldn't have had.
That's correct, SNB is risking bringing much more problems to the table, the euro is a sinking ship and they're anchored to it trying to bring it up against their own, the forces driving the euro down is much more than the Swiss govt capacity to save the day, SNB should let go and opt for more internal preventive measures and creative ways to reduce their businesses costs, to increase local buying power and optional the global ones.....think of it this way, if any EU country falls now, Switzerland will suffer the impact much more than ever cause they just bet their entire economy on the euro getting stronger which is not gonna happen
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Old 07.09.2011, 09:22
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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That's correct, SNB is risking adding much more problems, the euro is a sinking ship and they're anchored to it trying to bring it up, the forces driving the euro down is much more than the Swiss govt capacity to save the day, SNB should let go and opt for more internal preventive measures and creative ways to reduce their businesses costs, to increase local buying and optional the global ones.....think of it this way, if any EU country falls now, Switzerland will suffer the impact much more than ever cause they just bet their entire economy on the euro getting stronger which is not gonna happen
think you meant to say that
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