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  #101  
Old 15.07.2011, 19:19
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Typical garbage media writting about things they don't understand. The headlines are ... well... headlines.
I would love to start a poll about where people think various exchange rates are in say five years.
Further question: What will be the top performing currency over the next five years? To be honest, I think the world is has fair valuations in most floating currencies except Switzerland - can a land-locked island hold out?
Top performing currency over the next 5 years will probably be one of the worst performing over the last 5 years, so USD & £ look likely candidates.
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  #102  
Old 15.07.2011, 19:32
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Top performing currency over the next 5 years will probably be one of the worst performing over the last 5 years, so USD & £ look likely candidates.
As I sit on the edge of my seat, trying to understand all of the pieces on the board at the moment, I'd have to agree that the Euro is in far worse shape than either the pound or the dollar. Also, unless the dirtbags in the US don't get their act together in spite of all of the warnings about the need to raise the debt ceiling, as an American I firmly believe that no matter what happens, debts will be paid as if we become a country of those who welch on debts, those bankers will not be able to find a hole dark enough or deep enough to evade the ire of the American people. If necessary, I will buy a pitchfork factory in order to supply enough for the revolution.

I'm staying with the dollar, for what paltry sums I have...partly because I'm a lazy sod and partly because I still believe that unless I find myself taking lessons in Chinese, it will remain a solid currency.
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  #103  
Old 15.07.2011, 19:37
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Top performing currency over the next 5 years will probably be one of the worst performing over the last 5 years, so USD & £ look likely candidates.
top performing over next 5 years, i would say: chf, nok, cad
worst performing: usd, gbp
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  #104  
Old 15.07.2011, 20:55
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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top performing over next 5 years, i would say: chf, nok, cad
worst performing: usd, gbp
If go back to 1994 the $ went from 1.12 to 1-80 to the chf & the £ from 1.80 to 2.60. You being so bearish gives me more confidence of general informed opinion, so I will increase my £/$ bets.
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  #105  
Old 15.07.2011, 21:07
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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If go back to 1994 the $ went from 1.12 to 1-80 to the chf & the £ from 1.80 to 2.60. You being so bearish gives me more confidence of general informed opinion, so I will increase my £/$ bets.
well, you are entitled to use whatever signals you want to make your decisions. but i believe the crash was merely postponed, not cancelled and we'll see it play out fully over the next few years. chf, will be bouyed as a 'safe-haven' currency. nok might take a hit due to oil prices. usd/gbp will continue to be weighed down by debt problems and ailing economy.

out of interest, why do you think what happened in 1994 has significance to what will happen in 2011-2016?

Last edited by Phil_MCR; 15.07.2011 at 21:21.
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  #106  
Old 15.07.2011, 21:43
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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out of interest, why do you think what happened in 1994 has significance to what will happen in 2011-2016?
The general opinion was the UK was a basket case after pulling out of the ERM, the low currency was the driving force.

There is always a good arguement that it's different this time, think of high Valuations of Japanese stocks then internet stocks & US house prices, value always wins over time.

If the Swiss were highly motivated & efficient I might have a different view. I can think of very few Swiss companies I would want to invest in today.
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  #107  
Old 15.07.2011, 22:08
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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value always wins over time.
agree, with this - though i would say that while value may be there, to reflect the value in a debased currency, one might have to add a few zeros to the end
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  #108  
Old 15.07.2011, 22:23
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Wait till Italy announces it's bankruptcy soon.....Euro will worth nothing at all
Yeah, it can't happen for the same reason that Bank of America didn't collapse in the U.S.--"too big to fail."
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  #109  
Old 15.07.2011, 22:44
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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agree, with this - though i would say that while value may be there, to reflect the value in a debased currency, one might have to add a few zeros to the end
Which is why I like 'value' equities & not cash. Of course Warren's Berkshire is very unloved at the moment.

Phil am I correct in assuming your in banking?
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  #110  
Old 15.07.2011, 23:13
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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top performing over next 5 years, i would say: chf, nok, cad
worst performing: usd, gbp
Just tell me what you regard as "top performing" ????
-
Is it a currency which gets a higher and higher exchange rate ? ???
-
or is it a currency which retains an exchange rate in balance between the need for a high enough rate for the imports but low enough for the exports of its home market ????
-- and is in a realistic relationship with the markets, and by markets I do not mean some financial speculators (to me crooks who ought to get burned) but the REAL markets in the world
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  #111  
Old 16.07.2011, 00:01
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Yeah, it can't happen for the same reason that Bank of America didn't collapse in the U.S.--"too big to fail."
Italian debt reached 1897 trillion euros. ( http://www.corriere.it/economia/11_l...box_primopiano ).

This will not last long. Many young italians earn less that 1000€ per month, while the cost of living is getting expensive every day.

P.S.:
this is my first post. Hello everyone
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  #112  
Old 16.07.2011, 00:07
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Amen. I love that I have no investments and never carry a high enough balance in my bank account to earn any interest. I just have mountains and mountains of debt that will soon be massively eroded by titanic inflation.

Yay!
Sorry KF, I know this is not going to be very popular, but... isn't it this which got us in this terrible mess.

Sorry again- but I belong to the generation which 'made do' - with second hand furniture, hand me downs and home made bits and bobs. If we couldn't afford something, we just did without. And here is another cliché: it did us no harm at all. We tightened our belts, cut our cloth to size and did out best to get our kids through school and University. It p***es me off that we now have to pay for the throw away attitudes of many, and the, oh well, lets pile on the debts then go belly up. In the UK, with some of our kid's friends in their 30s and 40s- going bankrupt is a bit like an Asbo (anti-social behaviour order) - a sort of big joke and almost badge of honor
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  #113  
Old 16.07.2011, 01:04
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Which is why I like 'value' equities & not cash. Of course Warren's Berkshire is very unloved at the moment.

Phil am I correct in assuming your in banking?
IMO, equities are currently way over-priced, even factoring in the real-value fall from currency debasement (looking at UK stocks).

To be honest, I see very few attractive assets out there at the moment, which is why I closed down most of my positions and hunkered down in swiss property and CHFs (arguably, swiss property is a bit of a dead-end due to liquidity issues).

i see a great opportunities ahead when the second crash starts, and the values of various asset classes get hit hard.

Nope, not involved in banking at all
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  #114  
Old 16.07.2011, 01:10
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Yes, with an Italian "refugee" in the house (marito), I'm well acquainted with the ridiculous situation confronting young people in Italy. He was so frustrated, he left. The inflation after the Euro implementation, made a bad situation worse.

Welcome, NoeX

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Italian debt reached 1897 trillion euros. ( http://www.corriere.it/economia/11_l...box_primopiano ).

This will not last long. Many young italians earn less that 1000€ per month, while the cost of living is getting expensive every day.

P.S.:
this is my first post. Hello everyone
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  #115  
Old 16.07.2011, 15:05
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Sorry KF, I know this is not going to be very popular, but... isn't it (debt) which got us in this terrible mess.
I'm not going to justify a debt culture. But it is a fact of life in the US.
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  #116  
Old 16.07.2011, 15:18
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Yes, with an Italian "refugee" in the house (marito), I'm well acquainted with the ridiculous situation confronting young people in Italy. He was so frustrated, he left. The inflation after the Euro implementation, made a bad situation worse.
What inflation? Italy's inflation rate was 2.46% in 2002 (a drop from the year before actually). Considering they used to regularly post inflation rates higher than 4% or 5% in the early 1990's, a rate of around 2% in the 4 years post euro would suggest the euro gave Italy some badly needed price stability.

(Infos)
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  #117  
Old 18.07.2011, 12:10
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

euro opened @ 1.14CHF today - suspect it will be a rollercoaster day of ups & downs.
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  #118  
Old 18.07.2011, 13:02
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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What inflation? Italy's inflation rate was 2.46% in 2002 (a drop from the year before actually). Considering they used to regularly post inflation rates higher than 4% or 5% in the early 1990's, a rate of around 2% in the 4 years post euro would suggest the euro gave Italy some badly needed price stability.

(Infos)
I once took an accounting class in Italy. It was different that the accounting class that I'd previously taken in the US. In the US, you keep your debits to the left and your credits to the right. In Italy you keep two sets of books.

All joking aside, the government has been reporting some pretty bogus inflation numbers and there was public outrage in Italy about it even.

I would estimate that the post-euro inflation was at least twenty percent--if not more. But, that's my opinion based upon living for a couple of months at a time in Italy both before and after, and based upon talking to a bunch of Italians about how it affected them.
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  #119  
Old 18.07.2011, 15:18
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

Just checked it. The Euro now apparently is fairly stable at CHF 1.15 and the £ at 1.30. Don't know how this relative stability came about.

Over the weekend, some prominent people in Switzerland openly declared an entry of Switzerland into the Euro to be the only practical solution. The SNB purchasing whichever currency becomes weak for whatever reasons cannot be the solution in the longer term.
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  #120  
Old 18.07.2011, 15:25
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Re: Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High

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Over the weekend, some prominent people in Switzerland openly declared an entry of Switzerland into the Euro to be the only practical solution.
solution to their particular problems maybe. maybe levy a 5% tax on everybody and donate this to special interest groups? or would this be a too transparent way of trying to achieve the same thing?
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