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View Poll Results: How long will the CHF peg hold?
Less than a day 1 0.64%
Less than a week 17 10.90%
Less than a month 24 15.38%
Until the end of the year 43 27.56%
Longer 71 45.51%
Voters: 156. You may not vote on this poll

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  #221  
Old 06.09.2011, 23:44
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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Currency options are really high-risk turf. You need a lot of cash to make those work (we normally are in the single millions, which is small potatoes) and some very sharp minds to play betting games with the likes of Goldman Sachs in the derivatives market. We did look at that, along with our parent company, and the equity group, and decided the risk was too high.

Believe me - at no point was our strategy "hope the SNB intervenes." we were exploring every option we could find, and researching more constantly to try and find a way around it. I mean, this is an existential threat to our livelihoods, and I did not come here to shut a factory down! I'm not sure what government advice you were looking for us to get here. Not only us, but the likes of ABB, Nestle, UBS, etc were all thrashing about - and they have plenty of financial wizards and rafts of resources to deploy on this, and they often better-positioned that the government to find solutions. So I'm just no sure what you're thinking of here. Can you explain better?
What if the Swiss govt:

Subvented the salaries of your employees
Reduced your insurance
Reduced your taxes
Reduced your admin fees
Subvented your rent

You will be operational at 100% at less cost, which means your final product / service would cost less, you can become competitive, sell more and make same profit marge, while profits to the govt will return from the force of the CHF as currency....does this make sense?
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  #222  
Old 06.09.2011, 23:56
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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What if the Swiss govt:

Subvented the salaries of your employees
Reduced your insurance
Reduced your taxes
Reduced your admin fees
Subvented your rent

You will be operational at 100% at less cost, which means your final product / service would cost less, you can become competitive, sell more and make same profit marge, while profits to the govt will return from the force of the CHF as currency....does this make sense?
Sure it does - and I would love it. Who wouldn't love to run a business where someone else pays all your costs and you get the profit? Of course - there are some political problems. I mean - who would vote for that? Instead of what's going on now, you are outright GIVING money to corporations. How will that play?

Again - if they want to give me money, I'll take it. I'd love to buy new equipment, add new capabilities, or simply improve my bottom line because someone else is paying my expenses. I just don't see how you will ever get any to vote for using public money to finance private enterprise so nakedly. (and, incidentally, that is probably a good thing. That's another debate altogether.)
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  #223  
Old 07.09.2011, 00:07
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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Sure it does - and I would love it. Who wouldn't love to run a business where someone else pays all your costs and you get the profit? Of course - there are some political problems. I mean - who would vote for that? Instead of what's going on now, you are outright GIVING money to corporations. How will that play?

Again - if they want to give me money, I'll take it. I'd love to buy new equipment, add new capabilities, or simply improve my bottom line because someone else is paying my expenses. I just don't see how you will ever get any to vote for using public money to finance private enterprise so nakedly. (and, incidentally, that is probably a good thing. That's another debate altogether.)
What i meant is not giving you cash money nor investment to expand, but lets think it this way:
  • Subvented the salaries of your employees
    Isn't this gonna reduce the unemployment benefits incase you lay them off for low business, if you lay 10 employees off today, they'll get 70 to 80 % as benefits, isn't it better you get 30% subvention from the govt and keep them working, paying taxes, social security,...etc??
  • Reduced your insurance
    If they reduce your insurance while you still have your full work force, isn't it better than you not paying 10x insurance for the employees you laid off??
  • Subvented your rent
    If a company goes bankrupt, the office space / commercial space would be vacant for a year or 2 depending on the price, isn't it better to subvent now and save the business, regie, landlord,....etc??
  • Reduced your taxes
    This is an added option, should be offered at the extreme level, but still better than renovating the infrastructure that is already working fine in all cities!!
  • Reduced your admin fees
    Same as all above, no need to pay an arm or a leg for admin fees

Basically money shouldn't be given to the business, but rather dealt with at sources.....i think this would be a solution to all the problems, we're dealing with extra ordinary situation, there's major transitions happening worldwide, thinking outside the box is the only way to save the day.

Finally, no one needs to vote....i don't see anyone who voted for SNB to throw away 40 billion in the air before and throwing much more now and in the future

Let's keep in mind: Capitalism is a cycle that needs to keep rotating, once the elements needed for it to rotate start vanishing, it will eat anything it can to survive and then will eat it's own self
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  #224  
Old 07.09.2011, 00:13
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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What i meant is not giving you cash money nor investment to expand, but lets think it this way
What you think of is state capitalism. Ask the guys east of the Iron Curtain how well that worked out for them.
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  #225  
Old 07.09.2011, 00:20
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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What you think of is state capitalism. Ask the guys east of the Iron Curtain how well that worked out for them.
What i'm thinking of is more close communism, state won't be a partner in business by any mean, it's just a plan to reduce the occurring costs.....Swiss govt have been making loads of money for years and years, it's time to pay back and stabilize the local economy / market a bit.....extreme situations require extreme measures....and it's time for them to really go beyond just numbers on their screens, cause we're dealing with something that Swiss are not familiar with, human interaction and behavior which is what is mostly driving the markets and it's beyond their league at the moment

Why should they lose money to traders and investors rather than losing it for their local businesses / people, what they're doing now is pure capitalistic way of thinking
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  #226  
Old 07.09.2011, 00:24
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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Currency options are really high-risk turf. You need a lot of cash to make those work (we normally are in the single millions, which is small potatoes) and some very sharp minds to play betting games with the likes of Goldman Sachs in the derivatives market. We did look at that, along with our parent company, and the equity group, and decided the risk was too high.
I'm talking about options for hedging, not speculation. There's no betting involved. Agreed, the economies of scale for the fixed-costs of setting up such are not so good for smaller firms, but that's true for most business costs.

You come up with a barrier rate that you need to be insured against crossing. Go to banks, ask for the price of that option. They give you a price quote, and you can choose to pay it or not. There's no gamble involved - you are paying the bank to take the risk for you, that's the point of insurance. The option might be expensive, but it's like any insurance - you can pay it and know any potential losses are strictly limited, or not pay for it and take the risk of getting hit really hard.

There's a difference being in a situation where you are truly helpless in the face of external factors, and a situation where a safety net was there but someone took a conscious decision to take the risk anyway. This is why I'd be interested for someone who knows current prices to say whether it would be viable given the numbers involved.
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  #227  
Old 07.09.2011, 00:44
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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For reference, China, who pegs their MUCH larger currency base, spends $30B a month:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/15/op...15krugman.html

You can estimate it by looking at the next trade surplus. But I think it's safe to say 80B a day is just silly.
Yes but CHF is an easier target.
Suppose some speculators club together & borrow German euros @ say 0.5% for a month & use the euros to buy CHF50B each day; how many days do you think SNB would keep printing money?

If somebody tried the same game with China then China has enough reserves to play the game for at least 3 months
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  #228  
Old 07.09.2011, 08:12
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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I'm talking about options for hedging, not speculation. There's no betting involved. Agreed, the economies of scale for the fixed-costs of setting up such are not so good for smaller firms, but that's true for most business costs.

You come up with a barrier rate that you need to be insured against crossing. Go to banks, ask for the price of that option. They give you a price quote, and you can choose to pay it or not. There's no gamble involved - you are paying the bank to take the risk for you, that's the point of insurance. The option might be expensive, but it's like any insurance - you can pay it and know any potential losses are strictly limited, or not pay for it and take the risk of getting hit really hard.

There's a difference being in a situation where you are truly helpless in the face of external factors, and a situation where a safety net was there but someone took a conscious decision to take the risk anyway. This is why I'd be interested for someone who knows current prices to say whether it would be viable given the numbers involved.
What you describe is exactly a bet. You are asking the bank to be a counter party to my risk. Whereas the hedging we do involves a clear move for the bank (buy xxx CHF now at a current rate and sell them to me over time at a slightly lower rate to account for time value of money) your "options" described above are basically akin to the insurance bet in blackjack. Either the bank makes a small amount of money on the unexercised options, or it potentially loses a huge amount when I do exercise them. Not that I feel sorry for the bank - no one would make them do this.

But - especially in the wake of the AIG fiasco, very few financial institutions want to be part of large coordinated risks any more. So, that sort of option you describe is a lot harder to find, and far less likely to be the financial miracle you are hoping for.

In general - any system where you get someone else to take a loss for you is not going to be especially viable. Even if I could get a bank to do this, they would likely be fast out of business, which makes my insurance pretty worthless.
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  #229  
Old 07.09.2011, 08:34
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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Yes but CHF is an easier target.
Suppose some speculators club together & borrow German euros @ say 0.5% for a month & use the euros to buy CHF50B each day; how many days do you think SNB would keep printing money?

If somebody tried the same game with China then China has enough reserves to play the game for at least 3 months
On the other hand, China is fighting considerably more powerful forces - they are dominated by the world's largest export sector, as there simply staggering amount of currency moving around every month, and they having to intervene on the scale measured by US economy to hold a fixed exchange rate. They have been playing the 30B/month game for decades now. (And, if they don't, their export sector, which is the heart and soul of their economy, is equally threatened)

In the case of Switzerland, it's a relatively small economy, and the authority that makes swiss francs has announced it will print as many swiss francs as it needs to hold a certain maximum level. So, if you're a RISK ADVERSE investor (which is the group driving the swiss franc) do you really want to see if the lord of a small pond will keep manipulating the currency, or do you go to say, Japan, the world's third largest economy, and see if they can pull it off?

And let's not forget...the alternative to swiss franc depreciation is the wholesale destruction of the Swiss economy, which would then REALLY reduce the value of the currency. So, again, ask the risk adverse investor, do you want to push the currency to where the country backing collapses?

Last edited by dmay; 07.09.2011 at 08:48. Reason: added "measured by" to clarify what I meant.
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  #230  
Old 07.09.2011, 08:43
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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What i meant is not giving you cash money nor investment to expand, but lets think it this way:
  • Subvented the salaries of your employees
    Isn't this gonna reduce the unemployment benefits incase you lay them off for low business, if you lay 10 employees off today, they'll get 70 to 80 % as benefits, isn't it better you get 30% subvention from the govt and keep them working, paying taxes, social security,...etc??
  • Reduced your insurance
    If they reduce your insurance while you still have your full work force, isn't it better than you not paying 10x insurance for the employees you laid off??
  • Subvented your rent
    If a company goes bankrupt, the office space / commercial space would be vacant for a year or 2 depending on the price, isn't it better to subvent now and save the business, regie, landlord,....etc??
  • Reduced your taxes
    This is an added option, should be offered at the extreme level, but still better than renovating the infrastructure that is already working fine in all cities!!
  • Reduced your admin fees
    Same as all above, no need to pay an arm or a leg for admin fees

Basically money shouldn't be given to the business, but rather dealt with at sources.....i think this would be a solution to all the problems, we're dealing with extra ordinary situation, there's major transitions happening worldwide, thinking outside the box is the only way to save the day.

Finally, no one needs to vote....i don't see anyone who voted for SNB to throw away 40 billion in the air before and throwing much more now and in the future

Let's keep in mind: Capitalism is a cycle that needs to keep rotating, once the elements needed for it to rotate start vanishing, it will eat anything it can to survive and then will eat it's own self
Again, I would love it. But let's think this through, shall we?

You slash how much salaries cost me. Taking your 30% as an example. roughly half of my expenses are employee salaries, that means I get an instant 15% boost to my bottom line. Of course, the union comes marching up to me immediately demanding across-the-board raises, which I grant - and that's a good thing no troubles here. My customers come banging at my door asking for lower prices, which of course I wind up giving. But, as I am in exports, that means that the swiss government is now subsidizing some German/French/Italian/Spanish/Israeli/Czech/Indian/etc. etc. companies and pumping money into those economies. I, of course, eke out some increased profit from this, because I'm not stupid. That goes to our parent company and its investors...who are not, by and large, Swiss.

And this is the result: quite a large chunk of that subsidy money goes out of the country to other capitalists. So...if the government does this now, without a vote, there is an election in about a month. You tell me how that campaign would go: Mr. Egli voted to give lots of Swiss money to foreign corporations...
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  #231  
Old 07.09.2011, 08:51
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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What if the Swiss govt:

Subvented the salaries of your employees
Reduced your insurance
Reduced your taxes
Reduced your admin fees
Subvented your rent

You will be operational at 100% at less cost, which means your final product / service would cost less, you can become competitive, sell more and make same profit marge, while profits to the govt will return from the force of the CHF as currency....does this make sense?
As you point out, all this would do is treat the symptoms not cure the disease. None of this would cure the root problem - an overheated currency caused by massive inflows of capital seeking a safe haven. Like it or not, capping the currency's appreciation was the only option left. You're right to point out that linking the cap to the euro carries future risk. But SNB's priority was to tackle the more immediate risk. That coming from FX markets, not structural problems in the Swiss economy.

It's obvious Switzerland's politicians saw this as a last resort. Nobody is blind to the risks.

Last edited by Nev; 07.09.2011 at 10:06.
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  #232  
Old 07.09.2011, 09:46
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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What you describe is exactly a bet. You are asking the bank to be a counter party to my risk. Whereas the hedging we do involves a clear move for the bank (buy xxx CHF now at a current rate and sell them to me over time at a slightly lower rate to account for time value of money) your "options" described above are basically akin to the insurance bet in blackjack. Either the bank makes a small amount of money on the unexercised options, or it potentially loses a huge amount when I do exercise them. Not that I feel sorry for the bank - no one would make them do this.

But - especially in the wake of the AIG fiasco, very few financial institutions want to be part of large coordinated risks any more. So, that sort of option you describe is a lot harder to find, and far less likely to be the financial miracle you are hoping for.

In general - any system where you get someone else to take a loss for you is not going to be especially viable. Even if I could get a bank to do this, they would likely be fast out of business, which makes my insurance pretty worthless.
Do you regard your car insurance as a bet?

Insurance companies and banks selling options are viable. They're performing better than exporters as a sector, anyway.

These sort of options are standard stuff and are still available, even if their price might have risen if the associated risk has risen. The banks have to be careful that they are not too exposed to large fluctuations themselves, but they do this by hedging themselves. If they are exposed to EUR moving in one direction, they sell/buy options which pay off if it moves in the opposite direction. The hedging and pricing is their problem not yours, and the continuing existence of banks shows they are quite good at it. Some get it wrong, but which Swiss banks have collapsed and failed to pay out to their businesses?

I don't claim they are a miracle - there is no magic way of guaranteeing you a stable income in a turbulent international market. But still, it's easier to instead ask the SNB to take the gamble on the entire economy for you with the money of low-income families.
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  #233  
Old 07.09.2011, 09:50
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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Do you regard your car insurance as a bet?

Insurance companies and banks selling options are viable. They're performing better than exporters as a sector, anyway.

These sort of options are standard stuff and are still available, even if their price might have risen if the associated risk has risen. The banks have to be careful that they are not too exposed to large fluctuations themselves, but they do this by hedging themselves. If they are exposed to EUR moving in one direction, they sell/buy options which pay off if it moves in the opposite direction. The hedging and pricing is their problem not yours, and the continuing existence of banks shows they are quite good at it. Some get it wrong, but which Swiss banks have collapsed and failed to pay out to their businesses?

I don't claim they are a miracle - there is no magic way of guaranteeing you a stable income in a turbulent international market. But still, it's easier to instead ask the SNB to take the gamble on the entire economy for you with the money of low-income families.
just a pointer - the largest issuer of CDS on sovereign debt is .....AIG
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  #234  
Old 07.09.2011, 10:02
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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What i meant is not giving you cash money nor investment to expand, but lets think it this way:
  • Subvented the salaries of your employees
  • Reduced your insurance
  • Subvented your rent
  • Reduced your taxes
  • Reduced your admin fees

Finally, no one needs to vote....
...always think about the benefits to the businesses... who cares what the people think? right? Afterall, their political contributions pale in comparison anyway...
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  #235  
Old 07.09.2011, 10:08
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Just had a thought now, if Italy falls now, what are the odds that the SNB move will turn into a total disaster
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  #236  
Old 07.09.2011, 10:16
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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Just had a thought now, if Italy;Spain;Greece;Portugal;France;Benelux falls now, what are the odds that the SNB move will turn into a total disaster
100pct is my guess
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  #237  
Old 07.09.2011, 10:19
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

It's quite possible they will have to spend equivalent tho the GNP every week
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  #238  
Old 07.09.2011, 10:23
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

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Just had a thought now, when Italy falls now, what are the odds that the SNB move will turn into a total disaster
fixed that for you... does anybody really doubt Italy will fall?
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  #239  
Old 07.09.2011, 10:28
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fixed that for you... does anybody really doubt Italy will fall?
I avoided the word "When", cause when i said Italy will fall back in June, everyone attacked me and said it won't ever happen, so i kept it for "IF" now to avoid being slashed
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Old 07.09.2011, 12:59
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Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

I knew I should have made my US and EU online purchases last month! Now do I buy items straight away or hope some thing dramatic happens in coming weeks that will make Swiss currency stronger? SNB poured cold water on my credit card.
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