Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Living in Switzerland > Swiss politics/news  
View Poll Results: How long will the CHF peg hold?
Less than a day 1 0.64%
Less than a week 17 10.90%
Less than a month 24 15.38%
Until the end of the year 43 27.56%
Longer 71 45.51%
Voters: 156. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #541  
Old 07.08.2012, 17:50
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 13,950
Groaned at 272 Times in 178 Posts
Thanked 17,098 Times in 7,245 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Quote:
View Post
If there was a zero more or a zero less on all notes, nobody would be better off or worse. That is an aspect of inflation people fail to understand. It is just the measure that is shrinking and not the value of things.
i disagree. inflation steals from holders of cash savers and benefits those with debts.

imagine you are now 80 years old, having worked for 60 years and saved 1.2 million CHF for your retirement.

let's say we have inflation which means 100 CHF in old money is now worth 100 000 CHF in inflated money.

instead of earning 120k a year, a person now earns 120m a year.

what was 10 years of salary has been devalued to little over 1 month of salary which will probably give you a very poor standard of living.

conversely, somebody who bought what was then a hugely over-priced 3.5 room house in Zurich for 3.6 million CHF can pay off his debts with his monthly salary.
__________________
By replying to this post, you hereby grant Phil_MCR a royalty-free license to use, in any way, anything posted by you on the internet. If you do not accept, stop using EF and delete your account.
Reply With Quote
  #542  
Old 07.08.2012, 18:24
The_Love_Doctor's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Zugerberg, Zug
Posts: 3,267
Groaned at 77 Times in 60 Posts
Thanked 3,683 Times in 1,739 Posts
The_Love_Doctor has a reputation beyond reputeThe_Love_Doctor has a reputation beyond reputeThe_Love_Doctor has a reputation beyond reputeThe_Love_Doctor has a reputation beyond reputeThe_Love_Doctor has a reputation beyond reputeThe_Love_Doctor has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Quote:
View Post
i disagree. inflation steals from holders of cash savers and benefits those with debts.
Just to stop this here... I believe you are both saying the same thing...
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank The_Love_Doctor for this useful post:
  #543  
Old 07.08.2012, 19:11
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 13,950
Groaned at 272 Times in 178 Posts
Thanked 17,098 Times in 7,245 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

investment idea

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19100446
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Phil_MCR for this useful post:
  #544  
Old 07.08.2012, 22:18
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Baselland
Posts: 657
Groaned at 19 Times in 12 Posts
Thanked 454 Times in 288 Posts
spalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Quote:
View Post
But if the value of gold really explodes in the way some people expect (and hope), I'm pretty sure the private possession of gold (and other precious metals) will once again be outlawed.
The confiscation of gold in the US under Roosevelt is well known. Were there any other confiscations/bans in particular in Europe?
I for one am not aware of one in recent (last hundred yrs. or so) history. A confiscation would be difficult because many Europeans are cautious and wisely buy their gold for cash on the barrel without giving a name. French farmers and others unnamed are famous for such devious practices
Reply With Quote
  #545  
Old 07.08.2012, 22:25
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Zürich
Posts: 88
Groaned at 3 Times in 3 Posts
Thanked 78 Times in 49 Posts
Lana Del has earned some respectLana Del has earned some respect
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Saved money can become vapour ware so buying property outright a better option?
Reply With Quote
  #546  
Old 07.08.2012, 22:33
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Baselland
Posts: 657
Groaned at 19 Times in 12 Posts
Thanked 454 Times in 288 Posts
spalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Quote:
View Post
If you put your money in gold you are basically taking money out of circulation and parking it up. If too many people do that, the economy will see a shortfall of productivity and that will spin us deeper into recession.
I understand your argument.
However, gold should not really be seen as an investment but as a different from of money. It performs that function of money particularly well which fiat paper money does not do when the monetary base is being expanded rapidly, i.e. it is a store of wealth.
It is therefore not the people buying and owning gold that are behaving irresponsible, but the people in charge of the money supply. In the present system these people are ruled by politicians who only think short-term and know they must transfer wealth from those that have to those that have not, if they wish to be reelected.
By taking the money out of circulation its value is preserved and can be put back into productive use as soon as the political and financial system stabilises.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank spalebärg for this useful post:
  #547  
Old 08.08.2012, 00:09
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Zurich
Posts: 3,505
Groaned at 65 Times in 44 Posts
Thanked 3,641 Times in 1,981 Posts
rainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Quote:
View Post
Saved money can become vapour ware so buying property outright a better option?
It's another bet.
Why would a flat in mid-town Zurich with no view, no garden etc be worth millions?
It's only worth millions because apparently people from other nations are bringing in their money (with sometimes dubious origin) and are outbidding each other and any locals.
Remember that the 2008 crisis already shaved a lot of wealth from the super-rich. A lot of them realized then maybe for the first time that paper-money is really only that.
If I could (and if I had a lot of money), I'd buy decent farm-land. Ideally in a geographical region favored by climate change and with fertile soil, where stuff grows without much technical help.
(See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus).
As world population grows, fertile land will grow in value.

But as the Russian Revolution showed (or, for an uglier example: large-scale confiscations of Jewish shops and houses in Germany 1933-1945), owning property can also backfire.
The German word "Immobilie" also nicely points out the other drawback: that stuff is not mobile. You can't take it with you.

In summary, it could also be wise to blow-out all the money on cars, women, booze, travel and nice restaurants. Because one things is sure: nobody can take away the memories of this period in history. Later generation will have to pay for our life of luxury.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank rainer_d for this useful post:
  #548  
Old 08.08.2012, 00:52
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Statistically no.... real estate has always been a bad investment when ever inflation exceeds 30% per annum.

A posh Berlin apartment in 1920 would set you back about $20,000. In 1924 it cost $2,400.... In real terms the price of real estate goes down.

The only items that go up in real terms are food and clothes during hyperinflation as per the examples of Austria, Hungary, China, Germany, and Greece.

Real estate cant be moved across borders and traded for hard currency. Thats why small objects like gold bars keep their value, because they are an actual transfer of wealth.

Im not a gold bug nor am I in the hyperinflation camp. But we have backtested these things.


Quote:
View Post
Saved money can become vapour ware so buying property outright a better option?
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank for this useful post:
  #549  
Old 08.08.2012, 01:05
amogles's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Zurich
Posts: 10,806
Groaned at 227 Times in 191 Posts
Thanked 22,512 Times in 9,559 Posts
amogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Quote:
View Post
I understand your argument.
However, gold should not really be seen as an investment but as a different from of money. It performs that function of money particularly well which fiat paper money does not do when the monetary base is being expanded rapidly, i.e. it is a store of wealth.
It is therefore not the people buying and owning gold that are behaving irresponsible, but the people in charge of the money supply. In the present system these people are ruled by politicians who only think short-term and know they must transfer wealth from those that have to those that have not, if they wish to be reelected.
By taking the money out of circulation its value is preserved and can be put back into productive use as soon as the political and financial system stabilises.
A healthy economy creates wealth through labour, innovation and investment. An economy that thrives principally on speculation is an unhealthy one and will sooner or later fail as it does not create new wealth.

Gold cannot be a currency until and unless people actually start using it as a currency and pay with it, receive their salary in it etc. Most people buying gold have no intent of doing that. A currency that exists soley for the purpose of hoarding wealth in a mattress (or the equivalent thereof) is not really a currency at all but just a mechanism for parking wealth that could otherwise be employed to create jobs, innovation etc. If too much is hoarded it is extracting from society the means to create that growth.

Moderate inflation is actually an incentive to go out and use money rather than sit on it. The money loses value if it is not used so people have an incentive to invest it and create more wealth to get ahead. If gold was the currency, there would be a massive deflation (seeing the price of gold is rising) and people would just sit on their gold and get richer by the day rather than take risks in investment. The economy would dry up as there was no money available for investment and at some point it would fail due to lack of production.
Reply With Quote
  #550  
Old 08.08.2012, 01:11
amogles's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Zurich
Posts: 10,806
Groaned at 227 Times in 191 Posts
Thanked 22,512 Times in 9,559 Posts
amogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Quote:
View Post

But as the Russian Revolution showed (or, for an uglier example: large-scale confiscations of Jewish shops and houses in Germany 1933-1945), owning property can also backfire.
The aristocrats and super rich lost everything in the Russian revolution. But owning property was never banned outright and the middle classes who managed to stay under the radar managed to keep their property.

Likewise, many of the Jews who survived the Holocaust later reclaimed their property and had it restored to them.

So maybe it wasn't such a bad investment even then?
Reply With Quote
  #551  
Old 08.08.2012, 01:50
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Zurich
Posts: 3,505
Groaned at 65 Times in 44 Posts
Thanked 3,641 Times in 1,981 Posts
rainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond reputerainer_d has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Quote:
View Post
The aristocrats and super rich lost everything in the Russian revolution. But owning property was never banned outright and the middle classes who managed to stay under the radar managed to keep their property.
Unfortunately, AFAIK, almost all farmer were disappropriated, too.

Quote:
View Post
Likewise, many of the Jews who survived the Holocaust later reclaimed their property and had it restored to them.
Well, part of the problem was and is that about 6 million of them didn't survive, because the confiscation of property was just the opening act of what was to come....
And during the war, a lot of houses were destroyed (in the cities mainly).
As a result, Germany paid out the damages to those who asked for it.


Quote:
View Post
So maybe it wasn't such a bad investment even then?
A lot of businesses changed hands in the late 30s for pennies - and turned into gold-mines after the war. If the Jewish owners survived, they usually got some sort of compensation based on the value before the war...

This is all a bit of a distraction, though.

The real "lesson" one can take home from this is that probably all value of all material things is really just transient. Spending the money on raising kids and giving them a good education may turn out as the best long-term investment.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank rainer_d for this useful post:
  #552  
Old 17.08.2012, 19:02
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 13,950
Groaned at 272 Times in 178 Posts
Thanked 17,098 Times in 7,245 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Reply With Quote
  #553  
Old 22.08.2012, 00:27
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 13,950
Groaned at 272 Times in 178 Posts
Thanked 17,098 Times in 7,245 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...undesbank.html

I think plan A to wait for the Euro to recover is looking like a lost cause.

Your move, SNB...
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Phil_MCR for this useful post:
  #554  
Old 22.08.2012, 00:36
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

The last time the German central bank parted ways was with the Government was 3 months before the hyperinflation of 1924. VonHavenstein went to the British Government and got permission to leave the German Govt out of decision making (Central Bank Act Of 1923).

Im not a hyperinflationist, but clearly bad things happen when governments and central banks go behind each others backs.


Quote:
View Post
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...undesbank.html

I think plan A to wait for the Euro to recover is looking like a lost cause.

Your move, SNB...

Last edited by Zuger; 22.08.2012 at 00:38. Reason: Boobies are a great way to relax....
Reply With Quote
  #555  
Old 22.08.2012, 00:48
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 13,950
Groaned at 272 Times in 178 Posts
Thanked 17,098 Times in 7,245 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Quote:
View Post
The last time the German central bank parted ways was with the Government was 3 months before the hyperinflation of 1924. VonHavenstein went to the British Government and got permission to leave the German Govt out of decision making (Central Bank Act Of 1923).

Im not a hyperinflationist, but clearly bad things happen when governments and central banks go behind each others backs.
whether Jörg Asmussen has done this with or without germany's blessing is an interesting question.

but i think in any case germany has been boxed into a corner and would have, in spite of strong memories of hyperinflation, finally capitulated.

the wording of the announcement seems to have been carefully chosen to sidestep a german constitutional challenge. i'm sure it will still be challenged, but i expect the ECB will forge ahead and do what it wants ignoring the challenge and whatever the results of german court action, it will be too late as the ECB will go ahead.

it will be interesting to see whether german government and central bank accepts this fig leaf of a reason to go along, or whether this will be fought all the way.
__________________
By replying to this post, you hereby grant Phil_MCR a royalty-free license to use, in any way, anything posted by you on the internet. If you do not accept, stop using EF and delete your account.
Reply With Quote
  #556  
Old 22.08.2012, 00:53
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 13,950
Groaned at 272 Times in 178 Posts
Thanked 17,098 Times in 7,245 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

let's see what was being said about a year ago:

http://articles.businessinsider.com/...-ecb-solutions
Reply With Quote
  #557  
Old 25.09.2012, 13:48
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 9,629
Groaned at 405 Times in 349 Posts
Thanked 17,229 Times in 9,265 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Interesting report from Standard & Poors today.

They claim that the SNB buying German bonds in huge quantities this year (to stop the CHF rising) actually reduced the German bond yields.
This increased the difference between German yields & yields from poorer countries euro bonds.
In turn this probably increased loss of confidence in the euro which caused more people to buy CHF which made the SNB buy more German bonds in huge quantities etc. etc. etc.

Also says that SNB buying French bonds in huge quantities this year actually reduced the French bond yields which most observers had (falsely?) attributed to people's confidence in Hollande's policies.

One link of several
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...LA371320120925
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #558  
Old 09.01.2013, 17:06
BeastOfBodmin's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Zürich
Posts: 870
Groaned at 3 Times in 2 Posts
Thanked 351 Times in 229 Posts
BeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond reputeBeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond reputeBeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond reputeBeastOfBodmin has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

No posts to this thread since September?

Some of the Swiss seem to be pre-occupied with the people coming over, claiming benefits and paying no taxes.

Meanwhile the SNB is committing a much bigger financial crime.

How do you short Swissies if all you have is Swissies?
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank BeastOfBodmin for this useful post:
  #559  
Old 09.01.2013, 17:09
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 13,950
Groaned at 272 Times in 178 Posts
Thanked 17,098 Times in 7,245 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Quote:
View Post
No posts to this thread since September?

Some of the Swiss seem to be pre-occupied with the people coming over, claiming benefits and paying no taxes.

Meanwhile the SNB is committing a much bigger financial crime.

How do you short Swissies if all you have is Swissies?
get a CHF loan?
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Phil_MCR for this useful post:
  #560  
Old 09.01.2013, 18:02
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Baselland
Posts: 657
Groaned at 19 Times in 12 Posts
Thanked 454 Times in 288 Posts
spalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond reputespalebärg has a reputation beyond repute
Re: SNB Pegs CHF to the EUR!!!

Quote:
View Post
get a CHF loan?
...and buy GOOOOOOOOOLD
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank spalebärg for this useful post:
Reply

Tags
bns, chf, euro, europe, exchange rate, snb, switzerland




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Aftermath of SNB EUR Peg Discontinuation - Would you be happy to take a 20% pay cut? The_Love_Doctor Finance/banking/taxation 57 21.01.2015 11:59
What is the issue between the residents of Geneva and the residents of France? Wallabies Daily life 24 11.01.2013 20:52
The Euro project is one of the best and most visionary ones of the last 100 years Tweener Finance/banking/taxation 48 16.09.2011 02:09


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 04:40.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0