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Old 13.10.2011, 11:02
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The far-right Swiss People's Party (SVP) could claim almost 30 percent of the votes in the October 23rd federal elections, a milestone that no other party has ever reached in the history of modern Switzerland, a new opinion poll has shown.

Read the full article: SVP surges into huge poll lead
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Old 23.10.2011, 20:47
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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The far-right Swiss People's Party (SVP) could claim almost 30 percent of the votes in the October 23rd federal elections, a milestone that no other party has ever reached in the history of modern Switzerland, a new opinion poll has shown.

Read the full article: SVP surges into huge poll lead
No they did not - in fact they lost over 2%
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Old 23.10.2011, 20:50
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

Great news. Glad to see that their dreadful and fraudulent poster campaign turned against them at last. So relieved.
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Old 23.10.2011, 21:17
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It is rather the voters turning their backs on conservative parties in crisis times. At least that was one analysis some time ago. But SP didn't gain...
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Old 23.10.2011, 21:38
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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The far-right Swiss People's Party (SVP) could claim almost 30 percent of the votes in the October 23rd federal elections, a milestone that no other party has ever reached in the history of modern Switzerland, a new opinion poll has shown.

Read the full article: SVP surges into huge poll lead
The SVP in the elections of 2007, and THIS is the comparison, arrived at 29,0% of the votes in regard to the National Council, And 29% IS "almost 30%" . That they dropped to clearly below 27% which means by more than 2%, THIS is the surprise today.
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Old 23.10.2011, 21:42
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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It is rather the voters turning their backs on conservative parties in crisis times. At least that was one analysis some time ago. But SP didn't gain...
Really not ? They originally were forecase to suffer a heavy loss and now got away quite nicely. In view of particularily the GLP being active in what is the right wing "area" of the SP and even the CVP playing the "Social" card, their result is far better than I expected.
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Old 23.10.2011, 21:49
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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The SVP in the elections of 2007, and THIS is the comparison, arrived at 29,0% of the votes in regard to the National Council, And 29% IS "almost 30%" . That they dropped to clearly below 27% which means by more than 2%, THIS is the surprise today.
Latest numbers show SVP dropped by over 3%; I fear they will continue even more with their dreadful poster campaigns which will not win them more votes but will feed greater conflict between their supporters & the victims of their campaigns.
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Old 23.10.2011, 21:53
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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Really not ? They originally were forecase to suffer a heavy loss and now got away quite nicely.
I'm calling your bluff on that.

Where? Which serious commentator forecast a "heavy loss" for the SVP in the last month before the elections? Or even the last six months?

Even if there were isolated cases, trying to paint that this was the consensus is nonsense. I can give you articles from pretty every major German and French language news outlet predicting the SVP would at least stay constant, if not slightly increase their vote share.

Last edited by quark; 23.10.2011 at 21:57. Reason: more
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Old 23.10.2011, 22:01
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

Also, if you were inclined to add the BDP share of the votes to the SVP's share you are still looking at an increase... (above 30%)
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Old 23.10.2011, 22:10
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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I'm calling your bluff on that.

Where? Which serious commentator forecast a "heavy loss" for the SVP in the last month before the elections? Or even the last six months?

Even if there were isolated cases, trying to paint that this was the consensus is nonsense. I can give you articles from pretty every major German and French language news outlet predicting the SVP would at least stay constant, if not slightly increase their vote share.
That is the result from corrections made in the predictions: Until now, the share of SVP votes was underestimated almost every single time, presumably because some people had a problem admitting that they vote SVP to the interviewers....

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Also, if you were inclined to add the BDP share of the votes to the SVP's share you are still looking at an increase... (above 30%)
Which would be utter nonsense, looking at the candidates and the postitions of the BDP...
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Old 23.10.2011, 22:22
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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Also, if you were inclined to add the BDP share of the votes to the SVP's share you are still looking at an increase... (above 30%)
I cannot imagine the SVP would like that

Maybe 10 or 20 years in the future when the BDP are larger than the SVP then the SVP might have a change of heart & seek an alliance
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Old 23.10.2011, 22:30
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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Which would be utter nonsense, looking at the candidates and the postitions of the BDP...
Apart from the fact that the BDP is a split-off from the SVP and most of the established candidates on the national level were voted there as SVP members last time round....

And both the SVP and BDP consider themselves conservative parties.

Last edited by Mica; 23.10.2011 at 22:36. Reason: add: conservative positions
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Old 23.10.2011, 22:40
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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Apart from the fact that the BDP is a split-off from the SVP and most of the established candidates on the national level were voted there as SVP members last time round....

And both the SVP and BDP consider themselves conservative parties.
That is utter nonsense: So you'd add up the income of an ex couple after a very nasty divorce? There was a reason for the split-up after all.

Or, are you insinuating that Widmer-Schlumpf rightfully represents your party? You might want to tell that to Blocher and Brunner

IMHO there is a difference between being monothematical and being conservative. Plus, until now, the BDP had positions which are far closer to those of the CVP or FDP than those of the SVP.
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Old 23.10.2011, 22:45
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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The far-right Swiss People's Party (SVP) could claim almost 30 percent of the votes in the October 23rd federal elections, a milestone that no other party has ever reached in the history of modern Switzerland, a new opinion poll has shown.

Read the full article: SVP surges into huge poll lead
Spot on ... accurate reporting !
Finger on the pulse then , or just really, really lazy journalism?
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Old 24.10.2011, 01:34
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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It is rather the voters turning their backs on conservative parties in crisis times. At least that was one analysis some time ago. But SP didn't gain...
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Really not ? They originally were forecase to suffer a heavy loss and now got away quite nicely.
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I'm calling your bluff on that.

Where? Which serious commentator forecast a "heavy loss" for the SVP in the last month before the elections? Or even the last six months?

Even if there were isolated cases, trying to paint that this was the consensus is nonsense. I can give you articles from pretty every major German and French language news outlet predicting the SVP would at least stay constant, if not slightly increase their vote share.
Quark, you seem to misunderstand. Yacek and Wolli referred to the SP, not the SVP.
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Old 24.10.2011, 11:18
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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That is utter nonsense: So you'd add up the income of an ex couple after a very nasty divorce? There was a reason for the split-up after all.
No. But I would lump the Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox Church together as being "Christian Churches" despite them having a had a very nasty divorce(s).

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Or, are you insinuating that Widmer-Schlumpf rightfully represents your party?
Whose party? Assumptions, Assumptions...

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IMHO there is a difference between being monothematical and being conservative. Plus, until now, the BDP had positions which are far closer to those of the CVP or FDP than those of the SVP.
The fact that the SVP has been concentrating its marketing efforts on the same 2-3 themes prior to the elections does not make them monothematical, it just makes them focused (as compared to the FDP...).

By the way their party programm does list quite a few areas in which you'll also find in the party program of the BDP.
http://www.bdp.info/index.php?page=44
http://www.svp.ch/display.cfm/id/101395
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Old 24.10.2011, 11:38
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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I'm calling your bluff on that.

Where? Which serious commentator forecast a "heavy loss" for the SVP in the last month before the elections? Or even the last six months?

Even if there were isolated cases, trying to paint that this was the consensus is nonsense. I can give you articles from pretty every major German and French language news outlet predicting the SVP would at least stay constant, if not slightly increase their vote share.
Actually post Fukushima a lot of people were saying that as the SVP wasn't prepared and their pro-nuclear policy didn't go down well.
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Old 24.10.2011, 11:43
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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That is utter nonsense: So you'd add up the income of an ex couple after a very nasty divorce? There was a reason for the split-up after all.

Or, are you insinuating that Widmer-Schlumpf rightfully represents your party? You might want to tell that to Blocher and Brunner

IMHO there is a difference between being monothematical and being conservative. Plus, until now, the BDP had positions which are far closer to those of the CVP or FDP than those of the SVP.
I disagree.

There are two different tendencies to be watched in elections.

One is the left/right didvide. As in do the sum of all right of centre parties gain or lose versus the sum of all left of centre parties.

If you are a left-winger for example, you celebrate a shift towards left wing parties, even if your own favourite left-wing party doesn't get the biggest part of the cake.

And then on a secondary level, you look whether your party did well. But even if it didn't, you prefer that to the opposite, ie, your party gaining but the overall political wing losing, as that means your policies have less support.

Think of soccer. What is better? Your favourite player scores but your team loses, or your favouirite player doesn't score but your team wins?
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Old 24.10.2011, 12:47
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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No. But I would lump the Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox Church together as being "Christian Churches" despite them having a had a very nasty divorce(s).
If you want to add them as parties right of the center, fine. But You were saying that one could add up the votes for the BDP to those of the SVP, which is still utter nonsense.

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Whose party? Assumptions, Assumptions...
You don't seem to deny it though.

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The fact that the SVP has been concentrating its marketing efforts on the same 2-3 themes prior to the elections does not make them monothematical, it just makes them focused (as compared to the FDP...).
Focused, as in: Monothematical.

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By the way their party programm does list quite a few areas in which you'll also find in the party program of the BDP.
http://www.bdp.info/index.php?page=44
http://www.svp.ch/display.cfm/id/101395
If you look closer, you will find huge discrepancies such as: The BDP wants to have a clear and enforced policies regarding immigration which encompasses active integration. The SVP wants less foreigners.

The BDP wants Switzerland to play an active role of Switzerland in UN and other international bodies. The SVP wants to stay out of international organisations

etc. etc.

Personally, I am not to convinced by smartvote, mainly for methodological reasons, but this graphic sums it up quite clearly:



Finally, the main difference between the two can be summed up easily: Anstand.

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I disagree.

There are two different tendencies to be watched in elections.

One is the left/right didvide. As in do the sum of all right of centre parties gain or lose versus the sum of all left of centre parties.

If you are a left-winger for example, you celebrate a shift towards left wing parties, even if your own favourite left-wing party doesn't get the biggest part of the cake.

And then on a secondary level, you look whether your party did well. But even if it didn't, you prefer that to the opposite, ie, your party gaining but the overall political wing losing, as that means your policies have less support.

Think of soccer. What is better? Your favourite player scores but your team loses, or your favouirite player doesn't score but your team wins?
That would be true in a two-party system. In a multi-party system such as Switzerland and in a time where the left-right axis is but one of many, that model seems a bit "dated".

Last edited by SamWeiseVielleicht; 24.10.2011 at 13:04.
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Old 24.10.2011, 13:28
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Re: SVP surges into huge poll lead

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No. But I would lump the Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox Church together as being "Christian Churches" despite them having a had a very nasty divorce(s).



Whose party? Assumptions, Assumptions...



The fact that the SVP has been concentrating its marketing efforts on the same 2-3 themes prior to the elections does not make them monothematical, it just makes them focused (as compared to the FDP...).

By the way their party programm does list quite a few areas in which you'll also find in the party program of the BDP.
http://www.bdp.info/index.php?page=44
http://www.svp.ch/display.cfm/id/101395
About "No. But I would lump the Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox Church together as being "Christian Churches" despite them having a had a very nasty divorce(s)."

& your point is?
They all have differences in theology, structure, rules &&&. You might as well add in the Jews & Muslims & lump them all together as the "one God" worshippers?
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