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Old 03.06.2012, 14:59
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Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

not really, no. But in April 12, more than 30 billions of Euros were transferred out of Spain. And most of this capital to Switzerland. The SNB is working on countering the new development. To all appearance, they have started to print more money, and apparently again to buy more Euro. Sure, those Spanish finance people do not want to ruin Switzerland, but what they do is an attempt to do exactly this. But panicking is not the privilege of really poor people !
Other reports in the Finanz-und-Wirtschaft say that A) the SNB can keep the 1.20 peg even if Greece gets out of the Euro and also that the Swiss economy still is fairly stable

Possibly, Switzerland should announce considerations to drop the CHF and join the Rouble ! THIS would bring the exchange rate down to sensible levels within two days
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Old 03.06.2012, 16:11
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

Few of my friends tried to get their money out of Spain because they don't trust the banks here.
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Old 03.06.2012, 16:32
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

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Few of my friends tried to get their money out of Spain because they don't trust the banks here.
Those who did possibly do not trust the bank either, but the government even less. They apparently fear that the Spanish government may get out of the Euro and start a new currency, possibly "the new Peseta" and only pay one-to-one to the Euro-owners, in spite of the new currency dropping to the equivalent of half a Euro within 24 hours, so that most people will lose 50% of their capital. In case of a transfer to Switzerland, the worst risk is a negative interest-rate of between 1% and 5% . So that they of course are worlds away from wanting to damage Switzerland and their trust into Switzerland is flattering in a way, but their move is extremely inconvenient to put it mildly.
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Old 03.06.2012, 17:29
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

The thread title sounds a bit like their national football team landed here
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Old 03.06.2012, 17:46
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

To be fair, as it was said before, the BNS is trying to use 1 variable to defend Switzerland economy in that difficult environment.

It's very complex, but I think what they are doing is like trying to "throw rockets in the clouds" to make rain appears and control the weather: it might works temporarily but watch out for the bigger climatic change in approach!


For example, this PEG is not helping anymore exactly because of that reason: it can not go lower than 1.20Euros, to 1CHF.

If they were many many buyers of CHF, the franc will become even more expensive, and close to that 1 to 1 (1euros=1chf). What does it means for Swiss companies? Yes temporarily their export money is low and their internal cost is high.

But what does it means for those Spanish capitalists? Well that they would have to pay 20% more to get CHF!

Naturally a stronger Franc means that they will need more money to acquire it...

So of course there's so many variables that I can not say "it will be like that and it will be good for the Swiss economy". But I can say that a higher franc means that they will need to cash out more, meaning it might be less attractive for them...

Ie> 10 000euros now would get them only 10 000CHF (if CHf=Euros), while now, it is getting them 12 000CHF... Meaning it's less attractive, less secure, less
sure.


Edit: additionally it also means for Swiss people that in that example, we will get 20% more buying power in Euros (less bank transactions or charges for conversion). We would gain temporarly lot of buying power and will definitely purchase stuff in Euros, making the Euros zone economy better. Of course it's a small amount of people compare to the number of the Euro zone but still... not insignificant.
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Old 03.06.2012, 18:10
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

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To be fair, as it was said before, the BNS is trying to use 1 variable to defend Switzerland economy in that difficult environment.

It's very complex, but I think what they are doing is like trying to "throw rockets in the clouds" to make rain appears and control the weather: it might works temporarily but watch out for the bigger climatic change in approach!


For example, this PEG is not helping anymore exactly because of that reason: it can not go lower than 1.20Euros, to 1CHF.

If they were many many buyers of CHF, the franc will become even more expensive, and close to that 1 to 1 (1euros=1chf). What does it means for Swiss companies? Yes temporarily their export money is low and their internal cost is high.

But what does it means for those Spanish capitalists? Well that they would have to pay 20% more to get CHF!

Naturally a stronger Franc means that they will need more money to acquire it...

So of course there's so many variables that I can not say "it will be like that and it will be good for the Swiss economy". But I can say that a higher franc means that they will need to cash out more, meaning it might be less attractive for them...

Ie> 10 000euros now would get them only 10 000CHF (if CHf=Euros), while now, it is getting them 12 000CHF... Meaning it's less attractive, less secure, less
sure.


Edit: additionally it also means for Swiss people that in that example, we will get 20% more buying power in Euros (less bank transactions or charges for conversion). We would gain temporarly lot of buying power and will definitely purchase stuff in Euros, making the Euros zone economy better. Of course it's a small amount of people compare to the number of the Euro zone but still... not insignificant.
The 1.20 peg DOES help and is necessary and will be kept up. But the move ahead to the required 1.35 peg is difficult or almost impossible. THIS is the problem.

NO, the economy forces the SNB to keep up the 1.20 peg at all costs. The SNB has to serve the country and not the other way round.

Again, those Spanish finance people simply want to rescue their money into a reasonably safe place. As nobody knows what the Spanish government will do in the coming months.

They of course would pay much more to move their money into the CHF, but this is NOT what interests Switzerland. Switzerland has to sell its products to the Spanish market. And the market does NOT accept prices based on a deadly exchange-rate. Switzerland has to sell its inbound-tourism and when the Euro fell to below CHF 1.15 that nr 2 sector of the Swiss economy also got into trouble.

Nice is that Nick Hayek is linked with Mr Jordan in some ways and so can take the required influence, and hinder Mr Jordan from following some strictly monetarist instincts.

And your last few inputs mean that the SNB has to buy enough Euro to get control of that currency
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Old 06.06.2012, 02:02
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

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The 1.20 peg DOES help and is necessary and will be kept up. But the move ahead to the required 1.35 peg is difficult or almost impossible. THIS is the problem.

NO, the economy forces the SNB to keep up the 1.20 peg at all costs. The SNB has to serve the country and not the other way round.

Again, those Spanish finance people simply want to rescue their money into a reasonably safe place. As nobody knows what the Spanish government will do in the coming months.

They of course would pay much more to move their money into the CHF, but this is NOT what interests Switzerland. Switzerland has to sell its products to the Spanish market. And the market does NOT accept prices based on a deadly exchange-rate. Switzerland has to sell its inbound-tourism and when the Euro fell to below CHF 1.15 that nr 2 sector of the Swiss economy also got into trouble.

Nice is that Nick Hayek is linked with Mr Jordan in some ways and so can take the required influence, and hinder Mr Jordan from following some strictly monetarist instincts.

And your last few inputs mean that the SNB has to buy enough Euro to get control of that currency
The BNS cannot decrease the max exchange rate precisely because by helping the export sector it's fueling a real estate bubble which might be hitting Lake Geneva and Zurich.

I don't know anyone moving their money out of Spain and specially not to Switzerland as there's still the thought of another BNS intervention so that the CHF kept in the country would lose a lot of value after conversion again, not saying the news is not true, I totally believe it, although I'd great to have a link or something
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Old 06.06.2012, 08:31
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

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NO, the economy forces the SNB to keep up the 1.20 peg at all costs. The SNB has to serve the country and not the other way round.
Have you considered that 1.20 is not 'real' long-term?
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Old 07.06.2012, 00:20
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

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Have you considered that 1.20 is not 'real' long-term?

For the time being, Switzerland needs it, but in the longer term might replace it with a PEG to US Dollar or Japanese Yen. As long as the Euro has a defacto merchandise value (in Germany) of 1.35 to 1.45, the SNB will rather try to change to 1.30 .

Many experts argued that the SNB could not even maintain the 1.20 level, but it in reality was surprisingly easy to maintain the 1.20 . And it is known that the SNB even can maintain this level in case of Greece dropping out of the Euro.

A lot depends on things like the inflation in the Eurozone. Which may lead to the merchandise-value of the Euro coming down to 1.20 or 1.10 and in such a case, the SNB of course would adapt.

Such things as recently with Spain can come back again and again, but the SNB has shown to have the clout to persevere
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Old 07.06.2012, 00:49
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

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For the time being, Switzerland needs it, but in the longer term might replace it with a PEG to US Dollar or Japanese Yen.
They will not risk creating inflation by pegging to an economy they are not wholly dependent on. The SNB have been quite happy to let the USD/CHF exchange rate do whatever it pleases.

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And it is known that the SNB even can maintain this level in case of Greece dropping out of the Euro.
The only people who claim to know exactly what would happen if Greece left the Eurozone don't even know what they don't know.

No serious economist would be that ignorant of their own limitations.


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Such things as recently with Spain can come back again and again, but the SNB has shown to have the clout to persevere
You're judging them before any negative effects have had time to manifest. I'd reserve judgment for now.
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Old 07.06.2012, 00:56
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

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The only people who claim to know exactly what would happen if Greece left the Eurozone don't even know what they don't know.

No serious economist would be that ignorant of their own limitations.
The wives of central bankers are building a truly impressive forecasting record though.
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Old 07.06.2012, 01:01
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

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The wives of central bankers are building a truly impressive forecasting record though.
It's a bit easier for them to predict what their husbands will buy tomorrow than what an entire economy will do in a year in exceptional circumstances
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Old 07.06.2012, 09:58
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

It didn't go well when the Spanish feudalists invaded the Americas, I guess we should fear now.
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Old 07.06.2012, 11:04
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

Guess there was a reason why the Icelanders want the Canadian Dollar as their national currency. Repeat after me, S T A B I L I T Y. Those Spaniards with cash aren't doing the most stupid thing bringing their savings to our nation, going down with the Euro ship might be honorable, but they were never designed with lifeboats.
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Old 07.06.2012, 22:45
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

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They will not risk creating inflation by pegging to an economy they are not wholly dependent on. The SNB have been quite happy to let the USD/CHF exchange rate do whatever it pleases.
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This then simply means that Switzerland has to continue with the PEG to the Euro


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The only people who claim to know exactly what would happen if Greece left the Eurozone don't even know what they don't know.
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Never heard that there is anybody who knows this

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No serious economist would be that ignorant of their own limitations.
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Quite many "economists", not least some university chaps, vastly overestimate themselves


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You're judging them before any negative effects have had time to manifest. I'd reserve judgment for now.
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No, I do NOT. But some people in the media and some university professors DO
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Old 07.06.2012, 22:50
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

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Guess there was a reason why the Icelanders want the Canadian Dollar as their national currency. Repeat after me, S T A B I L I T Y. Those Spaniards with cash aren't doing the most stupid thing bringing their savings to our nation, going down with the Euro ship might be honorable, but they were never designed with lifeboats.
Very true but A) is Canada a tiny bit larger than Switzerland, and B) does this mean that they at SNB have to study the "negative interest thing" very thoroughly.

I just hope they understand a bit more about THIS than me, as I fail really to understand who this works. But it DID work under the command of SNB president Leutwyler, except that an increased inflation resulted from his various measures. Upto now, the SNBlers have proven to know their business sufficiently well, and so I think things will be manageable.
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Old 10.06.2012, 12:13
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

well, we know why

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...s-worsens.html
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Old 10.06.2012, 14:31
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland


makes it understandable in a way. BUT what exactly do the Spanish finance chaps fear ? That Spain is to launch a separate currency ? Unlike Greece, Spain HAS the required format to do so.
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Old 10.06.2012, 18:38
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

The peg primarily exists because the bulk of Switzerland's economic ties are with the Eurozone.

The best strategy here would be to "diversify" the country's export markets and include more non-Eurozone countries in the list, especially emerging markets which are cash-flush (BRICS).

What would really help in achieving this goal is loosening the permit restrictions on non-EU professionals in industry and trade who wish to move to Switzerland to work and/or setup business and simultaneously tightening restrictions on EU nationals, only allowing highly-qualified professionals into the country (what use is allowing EU non-skilled workers in these days? They only see Switzerland as an escape if they come from the PIGS).

Switzerland has unfortunately dug itself into a situation where almost 50% of its exports are with immediate Eurozone neighbours. It is pretty much feeling the consequences of "being in bed" with the EU via its bilateral agreements. Any Swiss convinced that the peg and/or capital controls will be the long-term solution to shielding the Swiss economy is clearly disillusioned. There is a world outside of Europe, and it is rising economically.
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Old 10.06.2012, 22:40
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Re: Spanish capitalists invade Switzerland

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The peg primarily exists because the bulk of Switzerland's economic ties are with the Eurozone. The best strategy here would be to "diversify" the country's export markets and include more non-Eurozone countries in the list, especially emerging markets which are cash-flush (BRICS).
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The strategy to "diversify" the country's export markets was started in 1948, a time when what later became the "Eurozone" made up some 80% of the export market. Switzerland however already in the 1940ies and 50ies had a strong customerbase in the Arab World, in Africa, in South Asia and in East Asia, but exactly those markets ARE price-sensitive. You may add countries like Israel, where the customers before the PEG deserted the Swiss exporters and now are back. The emerging markets may be "cash-flush" but of course compare the prices.

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What would really help in achieving this goal is loosening the permit restrictions on non-EU professionals in industry and trade who wish to move to Switzerland to work and/or setup business and simultaneously tightening restrictions on EU nationals, only allowing highly-qualified professionals into the country (what use is allowing EU non-skilled workers in these days? They only see Switzerland as an escape if they come from the PIGS).
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Switzerland introduced those restrictions against NON-EU professionals as part of the Bilaterals with the EU. There is no way to "looseneing the permit restrictions on non EU professionals" as the signed treaties are definite. Switzerland cannot "tighten restrictions on EU nationals" due to the various treaties.

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Switzerland has unfortunately dug itself into a situation where almost 50% of its exports are with immediate Eurozone neighbours. It is pretty much feeling the consequences of "being in bed" with the EU via its bilateral agreements. Any Swiss convinced that the peg and/or capital controls will be the long-term solution to shielding the Swiss economy is clearly disillusioned. There is a world outside of Europe, and it is rising economically.
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To say it again, some 80% of the Swiss exports were to the "Eurozone neighbours" back around 1950. NOBODY in Switzerland regards the PEG as THE long-term solution. But it at present is necessary as long as the financial markets are in chaos.


And here a map

which shows you where Switzerland is ! Switzerland is "deep in the heart of Europe" . Many of its export markets are less than an hour or two away from the exporter. People there speak the same language, share the same culture,


and you of course will see the Maghreb below left, and may argue that this is NOT Europe, and many Europeans may agree with you. But I will never forget when I on visit to London discussed things with three Sudanese and told them that as half Algerian ....etc....etc ..... but was corrrected them, saying that for them the three Maghreb countries ARE Europe ! YES, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia are A) as strictly and totally linked to Europe but as members of the "Mediterranean Partnership" together with Egypt, Israel, Lebanon and Jordan also bound into Europe as much as Switzerland. In case of Switzerland you have to add that Switzerland is full member of the Council of Europe (Europa-Rat), a rather underestimated organisation AND more then 20 European organisations. Switzerland is more closely integrated into Europe than Britain. Switzerland is a full member of both Schengen & Dublin, which brings lots of advantages but of course also obligations
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