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Old 02.09.2012, 22:18
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Real Estate prices sinking

According to the SonntagsZEitung, the real estate prices in August, for the first time in four years, were sinking. And this unionwide. Experts however are not confident and say that the overall situation may rather drive prices up again. It however may at least be a stop or a minimal turn around. something, average people and most of the economy are looking for.
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Old 02.09.2012, 22:30
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

Hello, have not read the article, but I would be surprised if prices were sinking. Maybe a one month correction in a trend of irrational exhuberance ? return to mean ? slowdown in rise ? Prices are sinking in Florida, Spain and Ireland (and Dubai). They will not be sinking any time soon in CH. Personal opinion.
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Old 02.09.2012, 22:59
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

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Hello, have not read the article, but I would be surprised if prices were sinking. Maybe a one month correction in a trend of irrational exhuberance ? return to mean ? slowdown in rise ? Prices are sinking in Florida, Spain and Ireland (and Dubai). They will not be sinking any time soon in CH. Personal opinion.
It was NOT a "slowdown in rising" but definitely SINKING. But here the link
http://www.sonntagszeitung.ch/wirtsc...?newsid=228333
You from your profile may find out more than I do about the whole matter. What I however CAN see is that even experts are cautious in making forecasts. But I suggest that you make your opinion yourself.
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Old 02.09.2012, 23:12
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

At least in the Geneva area, this is not new but has been the case since beginning of the year.

See also the articles linked from this thread:

Discounts of 15% on real estate prices in Geneva area

While I don't expect a bubble burst like in 1990 (30% and more value loss in Geneva), a 10-15% correction can be expected in this region.
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Old 02.09.2012, 23:14
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

One can only hope!

Tom
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Old 02.09.2012, 23:32
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

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One can only hope!

Tom
Indeed. Sinking real estate prices will have a positive effect on prices for everything, and may help business heavily. I am not an expert in either finance or real estate but clearly see the connection between real estate and rental prices and the rest of the economy, and so simply hope that the prices of real estate do not increase further. If the sink, the better it is.

Geneva was mentioned but Geneva is special. Not comparable to the rest of the country. Also not to the Ticino, where Lugano can expand into various directions (like the Malcantone) and Locarno+Bellinzona up and down the Ticino River (including the Magadino area). Zurich can and does and will expand to the north/northwest/northeast. Basel can expand towards the Canton of Solothurn and into the Laufental. While Geneva is enclosed by France. And the love of Genevans for the Pays Vaudois has its limits
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Old 03.09.2012, 00:38
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

Dropping real estate prices extrapolated to dropping rent may help individuals but if this leads to dropping prices for everything your starting to look at signs of a recession and people losing their jobs. Not really a great situation at all.

Easing of the housing market is one thing but be careful what you wish for.

Are Florida prices sinking? or have they sunk already? i know they tanked but didn't realize they were still dropping.
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Old 03.09.2012, 00:52
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

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While Geneva is enclosed by France
Wrong.



See all that countryside? Geneva. The city is indeed enclosed, but the problem is not the french border, the problem are the rural areas around the city where building is forbidden until it gets déclassé, in fact there's plenty of room to grow and that something everyone acknowledges. There's room to build 2 more geneva's just in its canton. Building more and densier outside of the city would easily solve the problem, politicians know it: See some examples of areas they want to urbanize but this is a leeeeeengthy problem to solve, as anything that needs to be done in this country.
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Old 03.09.2012, 01:47
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

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Dropping real estate prices extrapolated to dropping rent may help individuals but if this leads to dropping prices for everything your starting to look at signs of a recession and people losing their jobs. Not really a great situation at all.

Easing of the housing market is one thing but be careful what you wish for.

Are Florida prices sinking? or have they sunk already? i know they tanked but didn't realize they were still dropping.
The rise of real-estate-prices in the past lead to problems for most companies and to job losses.

No, the sinking of real-estate prices is favourable to the overall economy as most companies work in rented real estate . Your idea is based on 1912 realities when companies did own their buildings. But those are long gone times.

And lower renting prices give more money to the companies AND less overvalued rents for real estate may bring in more foreign investors / foreign companies.

And the whole thing may bring down the CHF to a decent level, which means one Euro being CHF 1.47 again which would be a decent rate that again would improve business of both industry and retail
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Old 03.09.2012, 01:54
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

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Wrong.



See all that countryside? Geneva. The city is indeed enclosed, but the problem is not the french border, the problem are the rural areas around the city where building is forbidden until it gets déclassé, in fact there's plenty of room to grow and that something everyone acknowledges. There's room to build 2 more geneva's just in its canton. Building more and densier outside of the city would easily solve the problem, politicians know it: See some examples of areas they want to urbanize but this is a leeeeeengthy problem to solve, as anything that needs to be done in this country.
Alright. So my Godfather in Geneva (1208) was right and my cousin in Coppet is right who both complained that Geneva is dominated by communists . I did not fuly realize the implications, but YES, it now to me starts to make sense as both of course did not mean small Lenins but the pack you describe.
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Old 03.09.2012, 09:07
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

The french outskirts around Geneva are an alternative now that public trabsport is becoming much better. Prices are half, if not less, of these in Geneva. There are thousands of geneva residents moving over every year and the trend is increasing (with construction going full steam over there). This also turns out to damper geneva's price evolution
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Old 03.09.2012, 09:23
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So only 5 years of correction and we might be able to find a house then. Maybe
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Old 03.09.2012, 11:12
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

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The french outskirts around Geneva are an alternative now that public trabsport is becoming much better. Prices are half, if not less, of these in Geneva. There are thousands of geneva residents moving over every year and the trend is increasing (with construction going full steam over there). This also turns out to damper geneva's price evolution
But those french towns are getting seriously tired of having to solve Geneva's politicians incompetence, so the trend will be to decrease the construction permits out of the border. I'll try to find a video from RTS that talked precisely about it.

Bonus:





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Old 03.09.2012, 11:40
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

Building new apppartments won't help if more and more people keeping arriving in Geneva to live.
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Old 03.09.2012, 16:56
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

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But those french towns are getting seriously tired of having to solve Geneva's politicians incompetence, so the trend will be to decrease the construction permits out of the border. I'll try to find a video from RTS that talked precisely about it.

Bonus:





IF all these constructions can bring jobs and help local economy, I do not see why it will stop
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Old 03.09.2012, 17:01
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

It will be interesting to see how it will affect other areas? As Zurich and Geneva start to go down in price, will other areas become actually more pricey or less? For instance in Romandie, areas like Yverdon, Fribourg and Neuchatel- also as more multi-nationals are moving there to avoid high Riviera prices and lack of suitable land.

BTW easy to say Geneva has loads of agricultural areas that could be concreted over. Easy to forget that as Switzerland is covered with lakes and mountains, agricultural areas are limited and essential for many reasons. Also why should the Swiss agree to concrete over the land their love - for the sake of come today and gone tomorrow big pharmas like Novartis, etc?
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Old 03.09.2012, 17:27
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

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It will be interesting to see how it will affect other areas? As Zurich and Geneva start to go down in price, will other areas become actually more pricey or less? For instance in Romandie, areas like Yverdon, Fribourg and Neuchatel- also as more multi-nationals are moving there to avoid high Riviera prices and lack of suitable land.
Surely it's the other places where prices are falling, thus pulling down the national average

I don't believe Zurich prices are falling at the moment.
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Old 03.09.2012, 17:54
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

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The rise of real-estate-prices in the past lead to problems for most companies and to job losses.

No, the sinking of real-estate prices is favourable to the overall economy as most companies work in rented real estate . Your idea is based on 1912 realities when companies did own their buildings. But those are long gone times.

And lower renting prices give more money to the companies AND less overvalued rents for real estate may bring in more foreign investors / foreign companies.

And the whole thing may bring down the CHF to a decent level, which means one Euro being CHF 1.47 again which would be a decent rate that again would improve business of both industry and retail
Read what I wrote. Price reductions OUTSIDE of real estate could cause problems for the economy which is what you alluded to as a good thing for the economy.

Basically you're talking about deflation, which would mean the price companies receive for their goods or services are reduced, this would put jobs in jeopardy. I dont see it personally. There may be a softening of the real estate market, it can't go up and up forever but I fail to see how this will be transferred to the general market.

And how will lower rental prices bring more investment into Switzerland but weaken the Franc? Surely more people looking to invest in Switzerland will strengthen the Franc.

Softening real estate prices would be good for people renting and those looking to buy and businesses (except those acting as landlords).
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Old 04.09.2012, 00:26
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Re: Real Estate prices sinking

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Read what I wrote. Price reductions OUTSIDE of real estate could cause problems for the economy which is what you alluded to as a good thing for the economy.

Basically you're talking about deflation, which would mean the price companies receive for their goods or services are reduced, this would put jobs in jeopardy. I dont see it personally. There may be a softening of the real estate market, it can't go up and up forever but I fail to see how this will be transferred to the general market.

And how will lower rental prices bring more investment into Switzerland but weaken the Franc? Surely more people looking to invest in Switzerland will strengthen the Franc.

Softening real estate prices would be good for people renting and those looking to buy and businesses (except those acting as landlords).
DEflation ? Maybe, but the point is that with lower real-estate prices, companies no longer have to pay as much as now and will either make higher profits or lower the prices of their products or a bit of both. That for industry and inbound tourism is good either way and will either create new jobs or at least save existing jobs.

The absurdly high real-estate prices threatened and destroyed jobs.
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