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  #61  
Old 05.06.2016, 23:27
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Re: basic income initiative

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Now, taking into consideration that information, I don't need to think or ask myself if the basic income initiative will be accepted or not by the swiss-citizens. The question is "when" (not "if") it will be accepted
Nah.

We'll talk again in 40 years.
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  #62  
Old 05.06.2016, 23:32
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Keep dreaming.
Hi,

did you read my post or did you only read only my last sentence?

I exposed a logic behind my explanation. With the technological improvements that are coming, let me know if you think that the job market will continue like it is right now. If you say "yes, it will continue like now", then I am the one that tells you: "Keep dreaming"

I haven't say that I would vote "yes" or "no", I say: take such things into consideration and then think about it

I suggest you to read the books of Jeremy Rifkin

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Nah.

We'll talk again in 40 years.
Maybe

Last edited by 3Wishes; 06.06.2016 at 19:33. Reason: merging consecutive replies
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  #63  
Old 05.06.2016, 23:46
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Re: basic income initiative

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Hi,

did you read my post or did you only read only my last sentence?

I exposed a logic behind my explanation. With the technological improvements that are coming, let me know if you think that the job market will continue like it is right now. If you say "yes, it will continue like now", then I am the one that tells you: "Keep dreaming"

I haven't say that I would vote "yes" or "no", I say: take such things into consideration and then think about it

I suggest you to read the books of Jeremy Rifkin
Let me put forward a similar scenario.

Google and a bunch of other US companies make rapid advances in AI and robotic technology. They slowly integrate this into existing processes at first, with robots displacing factory workers. Then AI displacing humans in call centres.

First they just use this to become the cheapest provider of factory services and call centre services, but they rapidly expand.

All the time, companies in the rest of the world go bankrupt unable to compete with the automated competition.

Soon, these other companies are just importing from the US and have little in the way of exports.

These countries end up with hugely negative balance of trade and increasing deficits. Fiscal policy is in disarray as tax collection collapsed with the industrial collapse.

What do these countries pay UBI with?
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  #64  
Old 06.06.2016, 00:06
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Re: basic income initiative

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Nah.

We'll talk again in 40 years.
Much sooner!

A friend of mine started talking about this idea 20 years ago and I thought he was nuts. I had a lot of time to think about it since. And I have spent a lot of time in fields, where the effect of basic income would show the most.

This would/will be a basic change. The systems as they are now are not working anymore - except maybe for just a few but not really - and as much as they patch things up, a little fix here, a little fix there, we're beating a dead horse. Profound change of thought is necessary to come up with something new. This could be something. It would also even out the social gradient.

I did not expect it to come through today and it's probably even too soon but I'm happy that the seed is planted.
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  #65  
Old 06.06.2016, 00:17
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Re: basic income initiative

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Let me put forward a similar scenario.

Google and a bunch of other US companies make rapid advances in AI and robotic technology. They slowly integrate this into existing processes at first, with robots displacing factory workers. Then AI displacing humans in call centres.

First they just use this to become the cheapest provider of factory services and call centre services, but they rapidly expand.

All the time, companies in the rest of the world go bankrupt unable to compete with the automated competition.

Soon, these other companies are just importing from the US and have little in the way of exports.

These countries end up with hugely negative balance of trade and increasing deficits. Fiscal policy is in disarray as tax collection collapsed with the industrial collapse.

What do these countries pay UBI with?
I heard the same scenarios when computers started to be used widely 40/50 years ago. There was the famous IBM statement that 50 IBM computers would be enough to drive all processes worldwide.

Then again when robots started to be widely used for production in car factories.

One should never underestimate mans ingenuity and ability to change to adapt to different circumstances.

Plus with robots displacing factory workers and call centre workers then who will be in work and buy what the factories produce?

Maybe we will all end up serving each other burgers
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  #66  
Old 06.06.2016, 00:40
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Re: basic income initiative

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I heard the same scenarios when computers started to be used widely 40/50 years ago. There was the famous IBM statement that 50 IBM computers would be enough to drive all processes worldwide.

Then again when robots started to be widely used for production in car factories.

One should never underestimate mans ingenuity and ability to change to adapt to different circumstances.

Plus with robots displacing factory workers and call centre workers then who will be in work and buy what the factories produce?

Maybe we will all end up serving each other burgers
History shows us that these people from under-performing states get conquered and killed or enslaved...

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  #67  
Old 06.06.2016, 01:41
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Re: basic income initiative

So someone took a ride in one of these self-driving google cars and was surprised by the car suddenly stopping because it "thought" that a shadow across the lane cast by an overpass was a real obstacle. A solution to it? Not more inteligence, that's too hard to do. Just better lidar/radar etc sensors.
I wonder how long it will take until these cars can drive by just a pair of video cameras in a heavy snow storm or thick fog and inferring the shape of the road from both visual cues and behavior of preceding cars.
There was a lot of progress made recently by "machine learning" which is just applied statistical models and maybe "deep neural networks where nobody knows how (and if) they work. But this progress is just in some domains and it doesn't mean it will be applicable to other domains.
Actually I think there might be deployed "smart highways", where an instrumented road and vehicle-two-vehicle communication will be used to increase capacity and cars without the tech will be simply banned.
Employment-wise there are supposedly now more IT engs in US than farmers. So we got incredible productivity gains in field where most of the population worked mere 100 years ago, so anybody predicting robots replacing people forgets that manufacturing is really a fraction of employment anyway already in modern societies.
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  #68  
Old 06.06.2016, 01:44
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Re: basic income initiative

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did you read my post or did you only read only my last sentence?
I exposed a logic behind my explanation......
I suggest you to read the books of Jeremy Rifkin
I had my RoboReader with AI give me the jist of your post.

You logic is flawed. Human race has survived technological change since I-Dont-Know-When and it will continue to.

No one is owed a living or leisure time. Compete or Perish. That is what my ancestors did (and yours). Don't let them down now.
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  #69  
Old 06.06.2016, 11:48
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Re: basic income initiative

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So someone took a ride in one of these self-driving google cars and was surprised by the car suddenly stopping because it "thought" that a shadow across the lane cast by an overpass was a real obstacle. A solution to it? Not more inteligence, that's too hard to do. Just better lidar/radar etc sensors.
I wonder how long it will take until these cars can drive by just a pair of video cameras in a heavy snow storm or thick fog and inferring the shape of the road from both visual cues and behavior of preceding cars.
There was a lot of progress made recently by "machine learning" which is just applied statistical models and maybe "deep neural networks where nobody knows how (and if) they work. But this progress is just in some domains and it doesn't mean it will be applicable to other domains.
Actually I think there might be deployed "smart highways", where an instrumented road and vehicle-two-vehicle communication will be used to increase capacity and cars without the tech will be simply banned.
Employment-wise there are supposedly now more IT engs in US than farmers. So we got incredible productivity gains in field where most of the population worked mere 100 years ago, so anybody predicting robots replacing people forgets that manufacturing is really a fraction of employment anyway already in modern societies.
i wouldn't be surprised if the cars already drive better than humans on average, which would be great for improvement in road deaths.

this will only get better, esp. if more automated cars come on the road and they share sensor data, they will have much better visibility than any human can.
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Old 06.06.2016, 12:54
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Re: basic income initiative

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i wouldn't be surprised if the cars already drive better than humans on average, which would be great for improvement in road deaths.



this will only get better, esp. if more automated cars come on the road and they share sensor data, they will have much better visibility than any human can.
If you introduced them into a dense city today, they would just grind to halt in narrow streets because they wouldn't have the eye contact and understanding of human interaction and forcing one's way through when cars are parked on a side and it is too narrow for two cars to pass.
But yes, autonomous cars will one day be the only legal on the streets because of inherent safety, that I'm 100% sure.
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  #71  
Old 06.06.2016, 13:56
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Re: basic income initiative

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they wouldn't have the eye contact and understanding of human interaction
why do you not think this will be developed and end up better than humans at interpreting eye contact?
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  #72  
Old 06.06.2016, 14:13
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Re: basic income initiative

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If you introduced them into a dense city today, they would just grind to halt in narrow streets because they wouldn't have the eye contact and understanding of human interaction and forcing one's way through when cars are parked on a side and it is too narrow for two cars to pass.
But yes, autonomous cars will one day be the only legal on the streets because of inherent safety, that I'm 100% sure.
Do you really think the various Govt.'s will give up all that revenue from traffic fines?
Millions in income from Zürich town alone
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