I have only predicted a few things on this site- corn prices a couple of years back and the other one I've forgotten, But I cheat a bit, my son used to educate me on the market- he was pretty good. Then I mix it with common sense just what I see around me in daily life- trends and technological know-how from my husband and I love real estate markets! I am fascinated by the psychology of markets, but morality stops me.. there is something that I want to invest in now and its a dead cert but I can't- its immoral. I am trying to push someone else to do it for me, so I don't look bad, it will make soo much money!

I mean looking back- you could see that at the time of AIDS it made sense to invest in Durex, or during the Iraq war perhaps some major arms manufacturer DUH! But would you have thought it at the time?

The press is actually one of the worst places to look- there is so much disinformation. Speculators use the press as a tool to hook suckers.

I respectfully disagree.

The market is by itself totally random. Any rationality is either too complex to explain and so becomes identical with randomness, or is overridden by other forms of randomness-

So how can you stay ahead of a random market? Simple, listen to the press.

Does that sound crazy?

Well, think of it this way. Let's look at another random discipline, astrology.

Astrology is basically about making random predictions on the basis of nothing.

Yet statistics show that there is a (very weak) correlation between predictions and what happens. But a weak correlation is better than none at all. Where does this correlation come from. Astrologers are after all calling out at random. They don't know anything that we don't (except maybe about gullibility).

The reason is that people believe astrologers and behave in a way that conforms with predictions. That is sufficient to account for the weak correlation. They say do X and you will be successful. That boldness people up and simply by the fact that they are trying and trying with the confidence that they will succeed, a number of those will actually succeed. That's how astrology works when it does get things right.

By the same mechanism, I propose there must be a weak correlation between things clueless pundits say in the press and what actually happens on the market. And then a weak correlation is better than no correlation. They say buy X, it will go up. And people buy X and it does go up. And hey presto, people believe the pundit was a genius. So if you want to make money, buy X too, and be sure to sell before the next thing comes along.

This is not my position. I've never advised anyone to invest in bitcoin because of reasons I've outlined in previous posts (mainly: most people can't reliably secure them against loss or theft - the concept of a single computer file worth hundreds of thousands of dollars is something alien to most people).

The price is also currently overvalued and will probably have another correction (again, see my previous posts for what I consider a sensible trading range for bitcoin at the moment).

I have a modest amount of bitcoins (initially from mining in the early days and subsequently built up from trading on the exchanges), but I'm mainly interested in the technology of bitcoin and what can be built on top of it (bitcoin is actually a revolution in finance - but I'll leave that explanation for another post). I experiment currently in autonomous trading engines and software layers which attach tags to bitcoins to enable derivatives and smart contracts. (See things like 'colored coins' or 'mastercoin' for innovations in this field).

The only coin I'm buying. My wallet is bulging and ripped from cards so I was going to get a new wallet but now I can get this! I suppose I should invest in it and ecurrency technology, but....... investing is like betting. I don't bet.

I'm thtat tech savvy but it looks easy to use, I wonder if I can put my library card, diner club cards etc. on it.

Hm! and my BART Travel Card. Hmmm!

https://onlycoin.com/?referral=wVXhgf7c

It's beginning to feel a lot like Xmas- everywhere I go... but not for this guy. Federal regulators tell Bitcoin mint to shut down http://rt.com/usa/caldwell-casascius-bitcoin-mint-157/

Another Bitcoin article.

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-b...charts-2013-12

Bitcoin will endup being a competitor to Paypal or Visa.
Might be a very good technology for mobile payments also.

But definitely not a currency.

How do you know it will definitely not be a currency?

I do not know 100%. But what is sure now is that China will not adopt it, the EBA disapproves it, and the US are closing a mint.

Also, to go back to the BRICs, they are creating their own IMF. So they will need a currency which is strong (like the Yuan) and not a speculative one.

Europe is stuggeling with Euro, I doubt they would want to change it after all the troubles they are going thru to maintain it (they don't need more speculation)

US cannot drop the dollar as they can export their debt with the paper they produce (like the 85billions a month, covered by virtually nothing). And the oil is indexed to it. Can you imagine the price of oil jumping by 500% overnight?

So Bitcoin has no real supporters.
This is why I believe it will never end as a currency.
But technology wise, this is a real innovation, like Torrent back in the days where you decentralized the download for files etc...

It is amazing in this aspect and will actually be more secure than Visa who is obliged to have insurance to cover Fraud. So with Bitcoin, theoretically you don't need insurance anymore (except for the theft of your hardware ). Thus having a lower cost to do business.

But again that is my humble opinion and contribution on this subject.

__________________
http://pikscrum.com/pikscrumblog/ Changed Location of blog
@PikScrum

It wasn't a mint; it was a mom-and-pop company that made a novelty item (they printed out the private key of a bitcoin address and sealed it in a container). Conceptually no different from framing a one dollar bill (ok, one thousand dollar bill) to stick on your wall. Its main use was in stock photography - pictures of a pile of them are used to illustrate pretty much any article ever written about bitcoin.

The feds requested that the company cease operations based on an OCD interpretation of the money transmitting regulations. (As if five seasons of Breaking Bad hadn't shown everyone that money laundering requires a bit more effort than just swapping one pile of anonymous cash for another).

Anyway, bitcoin would be useless as any kind of national currency as I outlined here: Bitcoin paper presented to Swiss parliament. Nobody wants to return to deflationary national currencies - they stifle economic growth.

http://www.businessinsider.com/bitco...nd-500-2013-12

That was a sweet correction; predicted here Bitcoin paper presented to Swiss parliament, of course. The Chinese news has nicely bought the price close to the exponential trend line (which, after scribbling on the back of a fag packet, I estimate to be about $420). This was an excellent trading opportunity for a canny short-seller.

Bitcoin is now a bit bored with China and, like the Dothraki horde in Game of Thrones, is now looking for a new country to plunder...

Hoppy, you're the only person I know who owns DC card (apart from me and my wife). Now, can you advise where to spend it as almost no one accepts this card?

My neighbour mentioned about bitcoin two years ago when it was almost unheard of, but I would never invest it in as it doesn't have intrinsic value.

I generally wouldn't invest in anything I can't touch, smell or hear.

Of course it has intrinsic value. A bitcoin (the unit of exchange) has a well-defined cash flow that can be discounted back to present value (the very definition of intrinsic value). Also, Bitcoin (the system necessary to use bitcoins) has itself a replacement value of over one billion dollars.

Sorry- husband and I intend to get them but have been too busy to get one- but that doesn't sound good- why isn't it accepted? Maybe you are ahead of the crowd, it just takes time to catch on?


I just saw this the Coin is not out yet and there are already concerns- sounds like it needs a rethink. It does actually want investors, and it seems like a great idea to me, but it needs to ramp up its security issues, this is bad press http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/1...ith-coin/?_r=0


But yes, China and Bitcon- not a good relationship.


Bitcoin Price Is Crashing (Again) Because China Says It Isn't Real http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/1...n_4464258.html

This is an interesting experiment. Many people are calling the death of bitcoin from China step-by-step shutting down use and access to it. This has been said before (e.g. shutdown of Silk Road) and bitcoin has always shrugged aside these apparent setbacks.

At the very least, people are saying that the above $1000 value is purely down to China. This is somewhat true, but bitcoin follows an exponential trend currently so rises are expected.

Let's see how the price goes. It's currently above $600 (low was $455), but I have a slight feeling that it's in a 'dead cat bounce' and may see lower prices. My target for the current price is $420. This is based on trend line analysis, but bitcoin is hardly ever at the trend line; the volatility, of course, is what makes it such a great playground for testing automated trading.

That's a nice idea, but it does have problems; biggest one to me looks like the lack of Chip and Pin (and it's not clear how it could ever have this). What is amusing is the choice of the 'Coin' name. It shows just how far bitcoin has steeped into the public consciousness.

Based on the bitcoin charts, and "if" we can make a technical analysis, it looks like we are currently at the end of Weinstein phase 3, hitting 4 in accelerated mode thanks to china.

I doubt it. Weinstein relies on a crossover of the 30-week moving average (MA) to indicate maximum market capitalization and the start of a bear trend which moves the price back to its arithmetic mean. Bitcoin hasn't even crossed-over on a three-day MA.

You're right to put the 'if' in scare quotes though; technical analysis used strategically not only doesn't really work for bitcoin, it doesn't really work for anything - it's essentially financial astrology. Some of the techniques, though, (like MAs) can be useful as short-term trading indicators when combined with other tactics (e.g. high-speed data mining of news feeds and forum/IRC conversations).

My "if" was placed for the reasons you mentioned.
But if you check the graph, it feels like phase 2 with the 4 steps are there, just similitudes...nothing more. And phase 1 looks like a build up from octobre ( a bit before)

Is Bitcoin worth stealing can you pawn Bitcoins? How to steal Bitcoin in three easy steps And once you’ve stolen it, how do you unload it? http://www.theverge.com/2013/12/19/5...ree-easy-steps