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  #1281  
Old 11.12.2014, 20:17
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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About "You will see states push back, for their autonomy and self-determination. "
The rich states are making too much money to push back and the poor states depend on hand-outs from the rich ones.

Possibly Switzerland will be key here; if it turns out well then maybe others will be encouraged. If it is a disaster then
The Keys to EU is actually Germany and France. Hollande is on his way out. Sarkozy may be back. Le Pen is polling highest, but may not find any partners. Merkel appears to be around for a long time, but she does lean right. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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  #1282  
Old 11.12.2014, 20:19
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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I will grossly oversimplify this, but perhaps this will help:

I make a widget in Stade, Germany. It costs me EUR 100 to make the widget, and it has a market sale price in Italy of EUR 200. Instead of selling the widget directly to Italy, however, I "sell" it for EUR 110 via a book entry in SAP to my Swiss affiliate, headquartered in Zug where I maintain my "back office" of accountants, marketing analysts, supply chain experts and attorneys. My Swiss affiliate then "resells" the widget to a customer in Italy for EUR 200, whereupon I drop-ship the widget to the customer in Italy out of my plant in Stade, Germany. I pay tax in Germany on my EUR 10 profit (or whatever other bare minimum margin I am required to recognize in German under OECD guidelines), and my Swiss affiliate pays tax in Switzerland on its EUR 90 profit. I suspect you can already figure out on your own who pays a higher % tax rate on their profit, me or my Swiss affiliate.

the example above is the driver of Switzerland's economic growth over the last 25-30 years. immigration had nothing to do with the growth, it was simply a logical result of the country's business plan, which was premised upon foreign investment and foreign employees being warehoused within Swiss borders. when you talk about FTA's with China, Brazil, Russia or whomever, you should recognize that none of those countries give a rat's ass about the Swiss consumer market, the Swiss social system, Swiss quality, Swiss milk, skiing or anything else - they are interested in Switzerland because the Swiss business model offers them the most tax-efficient means of entry into the broader European markets. in other words, without your hated EU partners, there are no FTA's for Switzerland.

fyi, I am not suggesting that the Swiss economy is wholly-dependent on the above business model, because the country continues to have a strong and much-respected specialty manufacturing sector (think watches, pharma and engineering), a very strong financial sector and certainly also a robust tourism sector. but there is no question that the economic growth enjoyed by the country in recent decades was built on the back of foreign investment and the country's favorable tax regimes.
As the EU president Juncker has demonstrated other countries have done the tax thing as well, possibly even better.
I agree the tax situation is a driver but do not underestimate the immigrant contribution. Without the immigrants every large Swiss company and bank would have to close down their computer departments; it is a hopeless task trying to find Swiss people for these jobs.
Look at Mr Blocher's company EMSchemie; full of immigrants
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  #1283  
Old 11.12.2014, 21:04
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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Positive point is the CHF link to the euro ensuring export prices are competitive.
But will this link be maintained if the economic ties with the EU are changed
If these doomsday scenarios portrayed here would actually become reality, why would it still be necessary to have a EURCHF floor in the first place? This was necessary because the EUR is vs the CHF one of these "collapsing currencies" as you called them.

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the example above is the driver of Switzerland's economic growth over the last 25-30 years. immigration had nothing to do with the growth, it was simply a logical result of the country's business plan, which was premised upon foreign investment and foreign employees being warehoused within Swiss borders. when you talk about FTA's with China, Brazil, Russia or whomever, you should recognize that none of those countries give a rat's ass about the Swiss consumer market, the Swiss social system, Swiss quality, Swiss milk, skiing or anything else - they are interested in Switzerland because the Swiss business model offers them the most tax-efficient means of entry into the broader European markets. in other words, without your hated EU partners, there are no FTA's for Switzerland.

fyi, I am not suggesting that the Swiss economy is wholly-dependent on the above business model, because the country continues to have a strong and much-respected specialty manufacturing sector (think watches, pharma and engineering), a very strong financial sector and certainly also a robust tourism sector. but there is no question that the economic growth enjoyed by the country in recent decades was built on the back of foreign investment and the country's favorable tax regimes.
Bold part: Source and quantification please.




The longer the more this thread seems to consist only of hear-say, opinions stated as facts and half-truths. Some scientific basis for all these claims would be greatly appreciated. The last thing we need are more "oversimplified examples". They're not worth the bytes spent on them for storage.
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  #1284  
Old 11.12.2014, 21:15
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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I guess it strikes a chord with people who are already irredeemably anti-EU.

What People are anti-EU ? you mean the Brits ?
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Old 11.12.2014, 21:19
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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You mean the Norway that is part of the EEA, the Schengen zone and NATO, which gives it an even closer relationship with the EU than CH has?

Switzerland is a Schengen-member, the Bilaterals give it a link that is as
close as the EEA, so that the only difference is NATO
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  #1286  
Old 11.12.2014, 21:23
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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The Keys to EU is actually Germany and France. Hollande is on his way out. Sarkozy may be back. Le Pen is polling highest, but may not find any partners. Merkel appears to be around for a long time, but she does lean right. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Mrs Merkel is a left-leaning right-winger. Sarkozy, deVillepin and Mrs LePen are better for Switzerland than Mr Hollande
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  #1287  
Old 11.12.2014, 21:24
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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If these doomsday scenarios portrayed here would actually become reality, why would it still be necessary to have a EURCHF floor in the first place? This was necessary because the EUR is vs the CHF one of these "collapsing currencies" as you called them.



Bold part: Source and quantification please.




The longer the more this thread seems to consist only of hear-say, opinions stated as facts and half-truths. Some scientific basis for all these claims would be greatly appreciated. The last thing we need are more "oversimplified examples". They're not worth the bytes spent on them for storage.
About "If these doomsday scenarios portrayed here would actually become reality, why would it still be necessary to have a EURCHF floor in the first place?"
I suppose you mean in the last place not the first as the floor is already existing?
It would all depend on which was collapsing faster? If Switzerland sells the hundreds of billions of euros that are lying in the SNB cellar then the euro value will collapse!
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  #1288  
Old 11.12.2014, 21:33
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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About "If these doomsday scenarios portrayed here would actually become reality, why would it still be necessary to have a EURCHF floor in the first place?"
I suppose you mean in the last place not the first as the floor is already existing?
It would all depend on which was collapsing faster? If Switzerland sells the hundreds of billions of euros that are lying in the SNB cellar then the euro value will collapse!
What do you mean with "last" place?

The EURCHF floor ("link" as you called it) is existing, yes. The CHF is dramatically overvalued because of the state of the Union. If Switzerlands economy would be falling apart, hordes of zombies invading and the four horsemen of the apocalypse being sighted over Bern, it would hardly be required any more to maintain the floor, would it?
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  #1289  
Old 11.12.2014, 21:47
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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What do you mean with "last" place?

The EURCHF floor ("link" as you called it) is existing, yes. The CHF is dramatically overvalued because of the state of the Union. If Switzerlands economy would be falling apart, hordes of zombies invading and the four horsemen of the apocalypse being sighted over Bern, it would hardly be required any more to maintain the floor, would it?
Doomsday is a bit strong. If Switzerland walks away from its largest export market (the EU) then there will be consequences; the EU takes about half of all Swiss exports.
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  #1290  
Old 11.12.2014, 21:59
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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I will grossly oversimplify this, but perhaps this will help:

I make a widget in Stade, Germany. It costs me EUR 100 to make the widget, and it has a market sale price in Italy of EUR 200. Instead of selling the widget directly to Italy, however, I "sell" it for EUR 110 via a book entry in SAP to my Swiss affiliate, headquartered in Zug where I maintain my "back office" of accountants, marketing analysts, supply chain experts and attorneys. My Swiss affiliate then "resells" the widget to a customer in Italy for EUR 200, whereupon I drop-ship the widget to the customer in Italy out of my plant in Stade, Germany. I pay tax in Germany on my EUR 10 profit (or whatever other bare minimum margin I am required to recognize in German under OECD guidelines), and my Swiss affiliate pays tax in Switzerland on its EUR 90 profit. I suspect you can already figure out on your own who pays a higher % tax rate on their profit, me or my Swiss affiliate.
This may be an idiotic question, but at which point do you personally acquire the 200 EUR? In this scenario where do you live? - In Germany or Switzerland? If in Germany, when you get your 200 EUR don't you have to pay taxes on it in Germany?
Or does the 200 EUR remain forever with your "Swiss affiliate"!?

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the example above is the driver of Switzerland's economic growth over the last 25-30 years.
Hmm ... I wouldn't mind seeing some source material for that claim.

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immigration had nothing to do with the growth
Which was precisely my point!

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when you talk about FTA's with China, Brazil, Russia or whomever, you should recognize that none of those countries give a rat's ass about the Swiss consumer market, the Swiss social system, Swiss quality, Swiss milk, skiing or anything else
So, they won't want to sell us anything to the Swiss consumer market, and neither will they care that what we sell them is of any particular level of quality!?

As for the rest of it - I don't care because we will be purely business partners - agreeing on mutually beneficial terms and conditions - without the political baggage and manipulation from either side of the hand shake.

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they are interested in Switzerland because the Swiss business model offers them the most tax-efficient means of entry into the broader European markets.
That's great by me.

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in other words, without your hated EU partners, there are no FTA's for Switzerland.
Well that is a bit of leap isn't it!? I mean what you are stating is that Swiss FTA's with non EU nations is solely for the purpose of funnelling goods to and from the EU via Switzerland!? And source material on that!?

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there is no question that the economic growth enjoyed by the country in recent decades was built on the back of foreign investment and the country's favorable tax regimes.
Should I have anything against foreign investment!? I would think that most countries in the world profit by foreign investment ... so why shouldn't we!?
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  #1291  
Old 11.12.2014, 22:00
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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Doomsday is a bit strong. If Switzerland walks away from its largest export market (the EU) then there will be consequences; the EU takes about half of all Swiss exports.
And what would these consequences be? Cancelling the bilaterals? By what percentage would the export volume to the EU sink because of these consequences (if there are any)?

It depends on your answers if I stay with "doomsday" or not.
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Old 11.12.2014, 23:19
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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Bold part: Source and quantification please.
apologies, I get paid to do my own thinking. honestly, though, what I wrote is hardly a secret, just call up any junior analyst at PwC, KPMG, E&Y or Deloitte.



for EAB - the money exits Switzerland by way of interco "loans", dividends or other funding structures. I am sure the good folks at PwC would be happy to help:

https://www.pwc.ch/en/todays_challen...itzerland.html

P.S. whether or not you are against foreign investment is immaterial, you just need to remember that foreign investment usually comes with foreigners.
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Old 11.12.2014, 23:25
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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apologies, I get paid to do my own thinking. honestly, though, what I wrote is hardly a secret, just call up any junior analyst at PwC, KPMG, E&Y or Deloitte.



for EAB - the money exits Switzerland by way of interco "loans", dividends or other funding structures. I am sure the good folks at PwC would be happy to help:

https://www.pwc.ch/en/todays_challen...itzerland.html

P.S. whether or not you are against foreign investment is immaterial, you just need to remember that foreign investment usually comes with foreigners.

PWC, good choice for such business, from the Guardian here;

Quote "Last month’s analyses of the way multinational companies establish businesses in Luxembourg were based on a leaked cache of hundreds of tax rulings secured by PwC Luxembourg that showed major companies – including drugs group Shire Pharmaceuticals and vacuum cleaner firm Dyson – using complex webs of internal loans and interest payments, which have greatly reduced tax bills."
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Old 11.12.2014, 23:39
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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PWC, good choice for such business, from the Guardian here;

Quote "Last month’s analyses of the way multinational companies establish businesses in Luxembourg were based on a leaked cache of hundreds of tax rulings secured by PwC Luxembourg that showed major companies – including drugs group Shire Pharmaceuticals and vacuum cleaner firm Dyson – using complex webs of internal loans and interest payments, which have greatly reduced tax bills."
what is fascinating is how the press refers to the Luxleaks situation as a "scandal", when in fact nothing illegal was done. the Netherlands and other jurisdictions operate the same way, through the issuance of advance tax rulings, etc. at the end of the day, the business model is the same for all of the countries offering tax efficient capital structures, including Switzerland.
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  #1295  
Old 11.12.2014, 23:39
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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P.S. whether or not you are against foreign investment is immaterial, you just need to remember that foreign investment usually comes with foreigners.
Do those foreigners come here to work? Do they pay their taxes here? If so they are welcome! (I don't know how many times, and in how many ways, I have said as much)

The criteria laid out in the MEI also has no issue with foreigners who are working in Switzerland.
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  #1296  
Old 11.12.2014, 23:41
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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The first thing that comes to mind when I think of "Swiss scientific research" is CERN, the home of the Large Hadron Collider and the inventor of the internet. [...]
Certainly not inventor of the internet. Played a leading part in development of the web, though.
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  #1297  
Old 12.12.2014, 01:17
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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eddiejc1 wrote:


Certainly not inventor of the internet. Played a leading part in development of the web, though.
Ah, success has many fathers!
Failure is an orphan
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Old 12.12.2014, 03:28
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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Doomsday is a bit strong. If Switzerland walks away from its largest export market (the EU) then there will be consequences; the EU takes about half of all Swiss exports.

Switzerland is not to "walk away" from the EU
as sîmple as that
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Old 12.12.2014, 09:45
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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Potentially losing strong economic ties with the EU.
Limiting immigration which was the engine of economic growth.
Positive point is the CHF link to the euro ensuring export prices are competitive.
But will this link be maintained if the economic ties with the EU are changed
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So which mice do you foresee contesting the EU elephant. On what grounds, with what objective?
Or do you imagine some white knight will appear and say to the EU "stop being nasty to Switzerland"
.....
Imagine the cost and time if Switzerland had to recertify all export products in the EU!
Imagine the problems if during procurements by public and private EU companies they had to prove suitable products were not available from EU suppliers before they were allowed to buy from Switzerland!
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Possibly Switzerland will be key here; if it turns out well then maybe others will be encouraged. If it is a disaster then
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It would all depend on which was collapsing faster? If Switzerland sells the hundreds of billions of euros that are lying in the SNB cellar then the euro value will collapse!
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If Switzerland walks away from its largest export market (the EU) then there will be consequences; the EU takes about half of all Swiss exports.
Marton acknowledges the EU plays hardball.

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Old 12.12.2014, 11:28
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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What People are anti-EU ? you mean the Brits ?
Is it just the Brits who are anti-EU? Wasn't it the French, the Dutch and the Irish who had so much difficulty voting yes?
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