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  #1421  
Old 20.08.2015, 11:14
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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In every past referendum where there was a clear question (yes or no to the EU) then there was a clear pro-EU majority vote.


As you wrote "many believed Blochers lie that the Bilaterals would not need to be cancelled" so this time it will be interesting to see whether the pro-EU vote is weaker or stronger than the anti freedom of movement vote.
I think that EU popularity and pro-EU sentiment has reached its high water mark and the tide is turning.

The Greece crisis and other failings of the EU are eroding approval.
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  #1422  
Old 20.08.2015, 11:17
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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Indeed, but the question is if either side was able to mobilize their supporters more than the others.

I know quite a few who voted strategically with a YES because they expected a NO, and simply wanted to show their discomfort with the current situation. With hindsight a significant portion of those wish they'd voiced their opinion instead.

Additonally, I think many believed (wanted to believe) Blochers lie (he can't have been unaware of the consequences, he's a lawyer) that the Bilaterals would not need to be canceled.
This is not at all what I am finding amongst people who votes "YES" to the MEI - Not at all! In fact many of them were rightly informed that the right to renegotiation was indeed included in the FMOP Agreement and that in light of this the Bilaterals should not have to be called into question since we are simply availing ourselves of the written provisions in the Agreement. - However, if the due date (Feb 2017) came and went and we had to abandon the FMOP Agreement we would then have to also (most likely) say Adieu to the other Bilaterals - this was well known by everyone I spoke to in the YES camp.
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  #1423  
Old 20.08.2015, 11:18
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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I think that EU popularity and pro-EU sentiment has reached its high water mark and the tide is turning.

The Greece crisis and other failings of the EU are eroding approval.
Even EU proponents nowadays acknowledge that the EU has big problems. Except maybe die-hards like Wolli.
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  #1424  
Old 20.08.2015, 11:28
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

The new vote will not pass very easily.
Remember it is now reversed: No means Yes, and Yes means No.

To pass, a majority of the cantons (13 1/2) have to say yes.
This means at least 5 cantons have to change. https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20140209/can580.html

There is a latent group of voters which will cast ALLWAYS a No regardless what the issue is.
https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/19970608/index.html
https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20140518/index.html
There is an other group which will vote always Yes. But it much smaller. To be conservative, against change, pro-status-quo is more natural..
https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20150308/index.html
I say, it is about 50k Yes voters vs. 150k No voters.
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  #1425  
Old 20.08.2015, 12:03
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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Not only in Ticino - this was the case throughout Switzerland - the rural-dwelling citizens largely didn't change their stance towards this issue, but what made the real difference in the vote was the swing in the urban and metropolitan areas. But nevertheless those opposed to ANY measure which secures Swiss borders or brings in ANY measure of control to immigration (above that which the EU dictates as being "right") will continue to perpetuate the fabrication that the rural-dwelling citizens are the ones to blame for the MEI passing the ballot box - and what they really want to say is "Those simpleton hill-billies should stick to their lowly peasant life and leave politics, economics, and heck pretty much voting in general to us know-it-all city-slickers" - and by pressing this fabrication they wish to give the impression that the outcome of the vote was somehow unjust or unfair. - What a load of rubbish!

I happen to think that rural-dwelling citizens are just as intelligent as city folk. I happen to know many of them and it may surprise some people just how well educated they are. I happen to also think that no citizens vote is worth any less than another citizens vote - and that goes for those who voted against the MEI just the same.

I happen to also respect our rural communities who provide great quality food and drink for us "know-it-all" city folk. I respect them for their hard labours but also I respect them for the experience they bring to the nation, for the perspective they bring. I respect them as a counter-balance to this worlds society drunken with the gluttony of all things "new" and "better" - mostly "better" simply because they are "new".

So here's to the farmer, the peasant, the rural-dwelling citizen. Salut! Prost! ... and may your lives be long and your vote ever present!
I see you are following the "Tony Brunner" line of lovely rural folks and horrible city dwellers.
This is the approach that so worries Alfred Heer (SVP leader, Zürich) whose audience are overwhelmingly city folks and he would prefer a strategy attractive to city dwellers to avoid losing even more SVP voters (SVP was 33% but dropped down to 27% of the successful candidates).
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  #1426  
Old 20.08.2015, 12:09
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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However, several things have changed since them.

One of these is the refugee crisis. OK, the bilaterals are not really about those migrants but people connect the topics. This will help a swing towards the no.

Another point is the handling of the whole affair by the Bundesrat and their seeming inability if not unwillingness to bring their fist down on the table in Brussels saying "our people have spoken so jump to it you unelected morons" but instead say "sorry, we don't really support this but our stupid population had a silly vote and asked us to negotiate this, of course it is so embarrassing and we apologise and let us kiss your feet". This has angered a lot of people and made them willing to punish the Bundesrat even more.

I always felt the right to do would have been to send Blocher and his friends to negotiate. It is the usual thing that when somebody wins a referendum that the initiators are involved in the implementation. If they'd have come home with egg on their face that would have settled the matter once and for all. But the powers that be were too worried he might actually achieve something and get his way and so they failed on purpose.


About "the Bundesrat and their seeming inability..."
Reminds me of the story of the colony of fleas who lived on the back of an elephant. Every morning they had a meeting to decide where the elephant should go during the day and every evening another meeting about why the elephant failed to follow the agreed route.
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  #1427  
Old 20.08.2015, 12:14
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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The new vote will not pass very easily.
Remember it is now reversed: No means Yes, and Yes means No.

To pass, a majority of the cantons (13 1/2) have to say yes.
This means at least 5 cantons have to change. https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20140209/can580.html

There is a latent group of voters which will cast ALLWAYS a No regardless what the issue is.
https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/19970608/index.html
https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20140518/index.html
There is an other group which will vote always Yes. But it much smaller. To be conservative, against change, pro-status-quo is more natural..
https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20150308/index.html
I say, it is about 50k Yes voters vs. 150k No voters.

So you know how the new referendum is worded? Please do share this information.


Have you considered they might be clever enough to simply write "Do you support keeping the existing EU bilaterals?" which would retain the status quo?
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  #1428  
Old 20.08.2015, 12:18
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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Morton: I see you are following the "Tony Brunner" line of lovely rural folks and horrible city dwellers.
*Yawwwwn* .... nope ... and at the end of the day all votes count equally - to me anyway.
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  #1429  
Old 20.08.2015, 12:38
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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So you know how the new referendum is worded? Please do share this information.
It is one of using the fewest word in recent times:
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Die Bundesverfassung wird wie folgt geändert:
Art. 121a und 197 Ziff. 11
Aufgehoben
https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/vi/vis458t.html

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The constitution will be changed as follow:
Art. 121a and Art. 197 Item 11
Cancled
Constitution:https://www.admin.ch/opc/de/classifi...395/index.html

Art. 121a and Art. 197 Item 11, where the change made in the constitution by the previous SVP initiative.
https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20140209/det580.html
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  #1430  
Old 20.08.2015, 12:47
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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Have you considered they might be clever enough to simply write "Do you support keeping the existing EU bilaterals?" which would retain the status quo?
PS: That would be a total silly vote. One would just state their opinion about something without any mandatory further cause or action by anyone.
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  #1431  
Old 20.08.2015, 13:06
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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PS: That would be a total silly vote. One would just state their opinion about something without any mandatory further cause or action by anyone.

Of course there would be more detail in the small print, as always. The headline question is what most people read.
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  #1432  
Old 20.08.2015, 13:07
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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Have you considered they might be clever enough to simply write "Do you support keeping the existing EU bilaterals?" which would retain the status quo?
That would be amazingly pointless.

If a referendum goes NO, then everything continues just as if the referendum had never taken place.

So a referendum asking not to change something has no effect whatsoever, no matter which way the vote goes.
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  #1433  
Old 20.08.2015, 14:59
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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Of course there would be more detail in the small print, as always. The headline question is what most people read.
Nope, aSwissinTheUS quoted the full text.

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However, several things have changed since them.

One of these is the refugee crisis. OK, the bilaterals are not really about those migrants but people connect the topics. This will help a swing towards the no.
If at all, it should help a Yes for Rasa (that's the new referendums nick). As the surrounding countries largely shield CH from the immigrants thanks to Schengen. A No to Rasa means no more Schengen membership.
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Another point is the handling of the whole affair by the Bundesrat and their seeming inability if not unwillingness to bring their fist down on the table in Brussels saying "our people have spoken so jump to it you unelected morons" but instead say "sorry, we don't really support this but our stupid population had a silly vote and asked us to negotiate this, of course it is so embarrassing and we apologise and let us kiss your feet". This has angered a lot of people and made them willing to punish the Bundesrat even more.
Read the agreement. IIRC there's no right to renegotiate, the only right is to ask for or initiate renegotiations.

What use would a right to demand renegotiations be anyway? In the current situation, EU would perhaps come to the table, do nothing but sit on their ears and keep shaking their heads. Every contract, or change thereof, is subject to negotiation, and that requires willingness to do so by all involved.

The notion that any party in any contract has any power to force the other one to accept a contract change predefined by any one party alone is extremely naive, to phrase it politely. By the same logic EU could force <pick whatever topic you like> down CH's throat, as long as it's part of the Bilaterals.

Blocher is a lawyer by trade with about 40 years experience both in national politics and as head of an company doing international business. It would have been impossible to be as successful as he was without being aware of that kind of detail. He keeps lying to his followers, who in turn keep idolizing him. Go figure.

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I always felt the right to do would have been to send Blocher and his friends to negotiate. It is the usual thing that when somebody wins a referendum that the initiators are involved in the implementation. If they'd have come home with egg on their face that would have settled the matter once and for all. But the powers that be were too worried he might actually achieve something and get his way and so they failed on purpose.
I agree, have him clean up the mess he created. I disagree though with why he wasn't given the mandate.


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I think that EU popularity and pro-EU sentiment has reached its high water mark and the tide is turning.

The Greece crisis and other failings of the EU are eroding approval.
EU popularity has been in downtrend since the early 90ies. However, being outside EEA that's exactly the reason why we need the Bilaterals. Without both EEA and Bilaterals it's either "join EU" or "back to trade barriers and and slow international trade of the 80s". Forget just-in-time and similar ubiquituous principles, and thus swiss companies delevering time-critical components to their customers. That would definitely mean lots of jobs leave CH.

All these discussions would be unnecessary had Blocher failed 23 years ago when CH voted NO on joining EWR (European Economic Area). If he wins again he may actually achieve the exact opposite of what he's striving for, as CH may be forced to join EU.

Last edited by Urs Max; 20.08.2015 at 15:09.
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  #1434  
Old 20.08.2015, 15:35
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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The new vote will not pass very easily.
Remember it is now reversed: No means Yes, and Yes means No.

To pass, a majority of the cantons (13 1/2) have to say yes.
This means at least 5 cantons have to change. https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20140209/can580.html

There is a latent group of voters which will cast ALLWAYS a No regardless what the issue is.
https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/19970608/index.html
https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20140518/index.html
There is an other group which will vote always Yes. But it much smaller. To be conservative, against change, pro-status-quo is more natural..
https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20150308/index.html
I say, it is about 50k Yes voters vs. 150k No voters.
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It is one of using the fewest word in recent times:

https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/vi/vis458t.html


Constitution:https://www.admin.ch/opc/de/classifi...395/index.html

Art. 121a and Art. 197 Item 11, where the change made in the constitution by the previous SVP initiative.
https://www.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20140209/det580.html


About "The new vote will not pass very easily.
Remember it is now reversed: No means Yes, and Yes means No."


But the way it is phrased means the pro-EU should vote "yes".
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  #1435  
Old 20.08.2015, 15:48
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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I agree, have him clean up the mess he created. I disagree though with why he wasn't given the mandate.
Yeah that would work great. In the same way that the Greeks sent Tsipras to negotiate "because he thought he could do better, so let him have at it".

And then he "cleaned up the mess he created" with yet another (possbily avoidable) memorandum.
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  #1436  
Old 20.08.2015, 16:15
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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IIRC there's no right to renegotiate, the only right is to ask for or initiate renegotiations.
The exact text is:

Article 18
Revision
If a Contracting Party wishes to have this Agreement revised, it shall submit a proposal to that effect to the Joint Committee. Amendments to this Agreement shall enter into force after the respective internal procedures have been completed, with the exception of amendments to Annexes II and III, which shall be adopted by decision of the Joint Committee and may enter into force immediately after that decision.

Now, has a proposal been submitted to the Joint Committee? - If so what was the proposal and what became of it? (verifiable sources please)

Quote:
What use would a right to demand renegotiations be anyway?
Same could be asked the other way around: "What use would the right to ask for or initiate negotiations be anyway?"

The entire reason for contracts is for one party to be able to hold another party to something in writing. What's the point of saying "either party has the right to ask for renegotiations" unless it also implies that both party's also have the obligation to renegotiate and in that renegotiation decide what changes to the contract, if any, they wish to agree to!?

The only time one party would refer the other party to the contract anyhow is when you want to hold them to it - so what's the point of saying that either party can initiate a renegotiation but that either party can also just ignore the initiation or state that they don't care to even look at the proposals of the other party because they like the contract the way it is!?

This is another way of saying that only if BOTH party's wish to renegotiate that there may actually be some renegotiation possible. This is hardly logical.

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In the current situation, EU would perhaps come to the table, do nothing but sit on their ears and keep shaking their heads. Every contract, or change thereof, is subject to negotiation, and that requires willingness to do so by all involved.
Again has a proposal been submitted to the Joint Committee? If so what was it and what happened with it?

Quote:
The notion that any party in any contract has any power to force the other one to accept a contract change predefined by any one party alone is extremely naive, to phrase it politely. By the same logic EU could force <pick whatever topic you like> down CH's throat, as long as it's part of the Bilaterals.
We are not seeking to force anyone to accept a contract change, but what the EU has done is simply fully ignored the choice of this country who are, BTW, not members to the EU! What we are saying is that we wish to renegotiate this agreement, and who knows, maybe more agreements will need to be renegotiated down the road. This somehow is completely mind-boggling to the EU and Co. who act like their agreements are somehow sacrosanct and cannot be seen to be challenged or amended - unless it's of course by themselves. The EU are the ones thinking they can force down our throats their political policies by strong-arming us with their economic clout and threatening us with economic hell-fire and damnation if we do not toe their line! As an independent nation we should be able to make trade agreements with other countries without it having anything whatsoever to do with immigration, jurisprudence and a host of other things!!

Quote:
Blocher is a lawyer by trade with about 40 years experience both in national politics and as head of an company doing international business. It would have been impossible to be as successful as he was without being aware of that kind of detail. He keeps lying to his followers, who in turn keep idolizing him. Go figure.

I agree, have him clean up the mess he created. I disagree though with why he wasn't given the mandate.
Blocher is a bad man ... blah blah blah ... he is a lawyer, a businessman ... politician ... rich ... liar ... etc ... horrible, horrible man ... yadda yadda ...
Pleeeease ...

As for the "mess he created" - he has answered numerous times to what he would propose, but the left-dominated Bundesrat completely ignore him (and ignore the SVP altogether) because they don't want to implement the MEI - period!
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  #1437  
Old 20.08.2015, 16:55
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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The exact text is:

Article 18
Revision
If a Contracting Party wishes to have this Agreement revised, it shall submit a proposal to that effect to the Joint Committee. Amendments to this Agreement shall enter into force after the respective internal procedures have been completed, with the exception of amendments to Annexes II and III, which shall be adopted by decision of the Joint Committee and may enter into force immediately after that decision.

Now, has a proposal been submitted to the Joint Committee? - If so what was the proposal and what became of it? (verifiable sources please)

Same could be asked the other way around: "What use would the right to ask for or initiate negotiations be anyway?"

The entire reason for contracts is for one party to be able to hold another party to something in writing. What's the point of saying "either party has the right to ask for renegotiations" unless it also implies that both party's also have the obligation to renegotiate and in that renegotiation decide what changes to the contract, if any, they wish to agree to!?

The only time one party would refer the other party to the contract anyhow is when you want to hold them to it - so what's the point of saying that either party can initiate a renegotiation but that either party can also just ignore the initiation or state that they don't care to even look at the proposals of the other party because they like the contract the way it is!?

This is another way of saying that only if BOTH party's wish to renegotiate that there may actually be some renegotiation possible. This is hardly logical.

Again has a proposal been submitted to the Joint Committee? If so what was it and what happened with it?

We are not seeking to force anyone to accept a contract change, but what the EU has done is simply fully ignored the choice of this country who are, BTW, not members to the EU! What we are saying is that we wish to renegotiate this agreement, and who knows, maybe more agreements will need to be renegotiated down the road. This somehow is completely mind-boggling to the EU and Co. who act like their agreements are somehow sacrosanct and cannot be seen to be challenged or amended - unless it's of course by themselves. The EU are the ones thinking they can force down our throats their political policies by strong-arming us with their economic clout and threatening us with economic hell-fire and damnation if we do not toe their line! As an independent nation we should be able to make trade agreements with other countries without it having anything whatsoever to do with immigration, jurisprudence and a host of other things!!

Blocher is a bad man ... blah blah blah ... he is a lawyer, a businessman ... politician ... rich ... liar ... etc ... horrible, horrible man ... yadda yadda ...
Pleeeease ...

As for the "mess he created" - he has answered numerous times to what he would propose, but the left-dominated Bundesrat completely ignore him (and ignore the SVP altogether) because they don't want to implement the MEI - period!

“Any fool can turn a blind eye but who knows what the ostrich sees in the sand.”
Samuel Beckett
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  #1438  
Old 20.08.2015, 17:44
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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We are not seeking to force anyone to accept a contract change, but what the EU has done is simply fully ignored the choice of this country who are, BTW, not members to the EU! What we are saying is that we wish to renegotiate this agreement, and who knows, maybe more agreements will need to be renegotiated down the road. This somehow is completely mind-boggling to the EU and Co. who act like their agreements are somehow sacrosanct and cannot be seen to be challenged or amended - unless it's of course by themselves. The EU are the ones thinking they can force down our throats their political policies by strong-arming us with their economic clout and threatening us with economic hell-fire and damnation if we do not toe their line! As an independent nation we should be able to make trade agreements with other countries without it having anything whatsoever to do with immigration, jurisprudence and a host of other things!!
You're requesting a change from the the other party, which they are fully within their rights to refuse.


You remind me of the naive expat who doesn't understand the swisscom contract, but see's that he will get 250 channels so signs it regardless. Only later does he realise he will have to pay 20Fr extra per month for a landline, and realizes he doesn't want this and tries to get out of it. He calls Swisscom, who listen to his rambling, but then politely say no.

Disgruntled and whiny, he comes to EF, only to be told he has no choice, but to pay, and to take it as a life lesson. No doubt, from a forum veteran too.

In other words, Switzerland has been Switzerlanded :-)

You can want to renegotiate all you want, there is no contract stipulation that the EU has to listen or agree. For all it matters, they can play Angry Birds under the table while Switzerland outlines what it wants, then curtly reply 'Nein/Non/No/etc' and leave the room.

As for the 'as an independant nation...' stuff, you're right. You can make those agreements independant of immigration, jurisprudence, etc. But you didn't.
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  #1439  
Old 20.08.2015, 18:13
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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You're requesting a change from the the other party, which they are fully within their rights to refuse.


You remind me of the naive expat who doesn't understand the swisscom contract, but see's that he will get 250 channels so signs it regardless. Only later does he realise he will have to pay 20Fr extra per month for a landline, and realizes he doesn't want this and tries to get out of it. He calls Swisscom, who listen to his rambling, but then politely say no.

Disgruntled and whiny, he comes to EF, only to be told he has no choice, but to pay, and to take it as a life lesson. No doubt, from a forum veteran too.

In other words, Switzerland has been Switzerlanded :-)

You can want to renegotiate all you want, there is no contract stipulation that the EU has to listen or agree. For all it matters, they can play Angry Birds under the table while Switzerland outlines what it wants, then curtly reply 'Nein/Non/No/etc' and leave the room.

As for the 'as an independant nation...' stuff, you're right. You can make those agreements independant of immigration, jurisprudence, etc. But you didn't.

About "As for the 'as an independant nation...' stuff, you're right. You can make those agreements independant of immigration, jurisprudence, etc. But you didn't." Exactly
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Old 20.08.2015, 18:24
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Re: Repercussions of Vote Already Starting...

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You're requesting a change from the the other party, which they are fully within their rights to refuse.
They are not refusing any change in particular since, afaik, there has been no proposal submitted to the Joint Committee. Instead what the EU has done is refuse to negotiate at all - period!

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As for the 'as an independant nation...' stuff, you're right. You can make those agreements independant of immigration, jurisprudence, etc. But you didn't.
And because we did not do it before we cannot do it now!? Is that some kind of galactic law I have not heard of yet!?
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