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  #1501  
Old 30.09.2015, 15:01
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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There's no reason to drop all the bilaterals based on the free movement agreement.
There is at least one. With the UK referendum on the horizon, the last thing anyone in Brussels wants to see is Switzerland proving the UKIP's claim that the UK can have their cake and eat it with the EU, so to a great extent the EU has to make an example of Switzerland. Nothing personal.
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  #1502  
Old 30.09.2015, 15:27
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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There is at least one. With the UK referendum on the horizon, the last thing anyone in Brussels wants to see is Switzerland proving the UKIP's claim that the UK can have their cake and eat it with the EU, so to a great extent the EU has to make an example of Switzerland. Nothing personal.
This thinking might have worked maybe a year or two ago when besides Switzerland and the UK, there was nobody else seriously seeking to rock the EU boat. But then along came Merkel and made a lot of enemies in the south and east and may well be helping the far right or far left in those countries into power. And don't fool yourself into believing the far right there is some sweet-spoken clone of UKIP or SVP. This is a different calibre of political force.

Maybe soon the EU will be falling over itself to prove that it can listen and can negotiate.

And where better to start than with a nice cuddly and reasonable country that won't be bringing baseball bats to the negotiating table.
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  #1503  
Old 30.09.2015, 15:41
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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This thinking might have worked maybe a year or two ago when besides Switzerland and the UK, there was nobody else seriously seeking to rock the EU boat. But then along came Merkel and made a lot of enemies in the south and east and may well be helping the far right or far left in those countries into power. And don't fool yourself into believing the far right there is some sweet-spoken clone of UKIP or SVP. This is a different calibre of political force.
Not entirely sure how this relates to, let alone refutes, what I said.

Whether or not Merkel has further soured European attitudes to the EU does not change the fact that one of the principle arguments in support of an EU exit by eurosceptic groups is the cake it and eat it argument. A year ago or now, that does not change.

As fear of negative economic consequences continues to be the primary disincentive to any nation exiting the EU, it naturally remains important that this be underlined by Brussels by making an example of Switzerland and showing anyone else who may be thinking of following the same line of thought that you can't have your cake and eat it.

Merkel, a year ago or now, makes no difference to this.
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  #1504  
Old 30.09.2015, 16:16
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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As fear of negative economic consequences continues to be the primary disincentive to any nation exiting the EU,
I'm not sure whether this is still the case. EU money has not had a permanent beneficial effect on many countries. In Hungary for example an initial upturn was drowned out by a massive stalling of the economy. And now Merkel has dumped migrants on them. In a place like that its not difficult to sell the idea that they'd be better off outside the EU. And guess who the Eurosceptics are blaming? Merkel may soon be shitting herself if these countries start spitting their half-eaten cake at her.

And its not just the EU that's on the line here. It's much more than that. Eurosceptics in these countries don't really differentiate between the EU and say, NATO. Greece may have gone through the movements of asking to become Putin's ally, but there are other countries who have the balls to back that up and actually do it.

Merkel may yet live to see the day she wishes she had someone reasonable to negotiate with, and backed up moderate forces while they were still relevant.
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  #1505  
Old 30.09.2015, 17:26
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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I'm not sure whether this is still the case.
What evidence have you of that?

You've argued that people are pissed off at Merkel and Germany, but nothing about how the economic consequences of leaving are no longer a major factor.

Conversely, off the top of my head, I can point to the second Irish Nice treaty (where the economic consequences were the only argument in favour of voting yes) and more recently the Greek crisis, where leaving the Euro is seen by the vast majority of Greeks as being economically disastrous, let alone leaving the EU.

And even if the threat of economic consequences has diminished, it still remains the EU's strongest card with the UK, so not taking a harsh stance against Switzerland would be asking for trouble from Brussles' point of view.

I'm not saying that the UK may not ultimately leave the EU, and so on, but there appears to be a fair bit of wishful thinking and leaps in logic in the analysis being thrown around, based on very little factual evidence.
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Eurosceptics in these countries don't really differentiate between the EU and say, NATO.
So the UKIP don't differentiate between the EU and NATO? Have they argued for the UK's exit from NATO recently?
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Old 30.09.2015, 17:42
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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So the UKIP don't differentiate between the EU and NATO? Have they argued for the UK's exit from NATO recently?
I was talking about the "new" Euosceptic countries, places like Hungary, where yes, i don't feel that there is a clear differentiation going on, or indeed that any is desired.

As to your other points. I was projecting a hypothesis. This may or may not come to pass, but it is a possibility. There is definitely a tendency towards stronger Euroscepticism across the EU, maybe more noticeable and more relevant in some countries than in others.

I don't know what the EU's position on this is, but if it is shrugging its soldiers and thinking it doesn't matter one iota, then it does so at its own peril.

Maybe the EU can do quite well without Switzerland and the UK. It can most definitely do well without Hungary, and indeed in all of these cases the negotiator's bark is stronger than their bite and the EU knows it and can afford to call their bluff. But Euroscepticism doesn't stop there. It's maybe not a big thing on the streets of Luxemburg or Germany yet, but even the once so pro-EU France isn't quite so sure any more. Where is this going to stop? Maybe the EU will at some point realize that it needs to come down from its high horse and actually listen.

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  #1507  
Old 30.09.2015, 18:17
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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I was talking about the "new" Euosceptic countries, places like Hungary, where yes, i don't feel that there is a clear differentiation going on, or indeed that any is desired.
So you were generalizing about eurosceptism throughout the bloc and now we're not?
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As to your other points. I was projecting a hypothesis.
Actually you were rebutting my hypothesis. Except you weren't, because you never actually said anything that actually rebutted it.
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This may or may not come to pass, but it is a possibility. There is definitely a tendency towards stronger Euroscepticism across the EU, maybe more noticeable and more relevant in some countries than in others.
Absolutely there's a tendency towards stronger Euroscepticism across the EU. No argument there.
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Maybe the EU can do quite well without Switzerland and the UK.
The EU can do quite well without Switzerland, but much less so without the UK. The political and economic importance of the UK is such that while the EU could well survive without the UK (and there are some definite advantages to having the UK out) it would still take a big hit. Where it comes to Switzerland, which is not even in the EU, it can afford to shaft it by comparison.

As I said, regardless of whether people have become more eurosceptic or not, the economic consequences remain the single biggest deterrent to leaving. If it takes a hard line with Switzerland to bring this message to the UK electorate, that there is no 'cake and eat it' option, I've no doubt Brussels will take it and probably make it very public in the run-up of any UK referendum so that it resonates.
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Where is this going to stop? Maybe the EU will at some point realize that it needs to come down from its high horse and actually listen.
What you're describing isn't really limited to the EU. There appears to be a crisis of democracy in the West in general. Even at a national level, Western governments appear to be becoming more oligarchical in nature and more divorced from the people.
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  #1508  
Old 30.09.2015, 19:26
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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So you were generalizing about eurosceptism throughout the bloc and now we're not?
I was differentiating between old school Euroscepticism, of the Swiss and British kind, and the new type, which is less predictable, less chummy middle class and more martial if not outright brutal.

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Actually you were rebutting my hypothesis. Except you weren't, because you never actually said anything that actually rebutted it.
Your hypothesis was that economic interests would keep countries inside the EU fold, as no matter how bad it is in the EU, it's going to be even worse outside. my rebuttal is that if you look at places like Hungary and how things have gone downhill economically these last few years, that is no longer a given.

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Absolutely there's a tendency towards stronger Euroscepticism across the EU. No argument there.
OK

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The EU can do quite well without Switzerland, but much less so without the UK. The political and economic importance of the UK is such that while the EU could well survive without the UK (and there are some definite advantages to having the UK out) it would still take a big hit. Where it comes to Switzerland, which is not even in the EU, it can afford to shaft it by comparison.
But as you said, and I didn't contradict this, Switzerland is being used as an example to try and weaken the UK's negotiating position. Furthermore, with the EU increasingly becoming a coalition between Germany and a large number of poor countries, any country that is a net contribuitor is going to be increasingly valuable. So if as you say, and I am not rebutting this, the EU thinks the best way to solve this problem is to play a strong authoritarian hand, this thinking is not taking into account damage to the EU's popularity and ultimate further rise of Euroscepticism. It would thus be a Pyrric victory if the EU deals with the UK (and Switzerland for that matter) by playing a heavy hand.

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What you're describing isn't really limited to the EU. There appears to be a crisis of democracy in the West in general. Even at a national level, Western governments appear to be becoming more oligarchical in nature and more divorced from the people.
Absolutely, a government that wasn't divorced from the people wouldn't even need to be playing hardball startegies of initimidation or shutting doors to negotiations. The very fact that we're here in the first place shows things have gone wrong. So essentially the EU thinks it can get out of the hole it has dug by digging deeper.
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  #1509  
Old 30.09.2015, 19:42
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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Conversely, off the top of my head, I can point to the second Irish Nice treaty (where the economic consequences were the only argument in favour of voting yes)
Total rubbish! The Irish on a low turnout rejected the treaty over concerns for neutrality. Two significant qualifications were included in the second proposed amendment, one requiring the consent of the Dáil for enhanced cooperation under the treaty, and another preventing Ireland from joining any EU common defence policy. Get your facts right!
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  #1510  
Old 30.09.2015, 21:05
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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Your hypothesis was that economic interests would keep countries inside the EU fold, as no matter how bad it is in the EU, it's going to be even worse outside.
I never said that. I've gone as far as argue that the threat of economic consequences are the "EU's strongest card", but you'll have to show me where I said that it would keep those countries in the EU, 'no matter how bad it is'.
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So if as you say, and I am not rebutting this, the EU thinks the best way to solve this problem is to play a strong authoritarian hand, this thinking is not taking into account damage to the EU's popularity and ultimate further rise of Euroscepticism. It would thus be a Pyrric victory if the EU deals with the UK (and Switzerland for that matter) by playing a heavy hand.
I don't disagree with you, but you're presuming that Brussels is taking a long term view - never ascribe to malice what can better be explained through incompetence.
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Total rubbish! The Irish on a low turnout rejected the treaty over concerns for neutrality. Two significant qualifications were included in the second proposed amendment, one requiring the consent of the Dáil for enhanced cooperation under the treaty, and another preventing Ireland from joining any EU common defence policy. Get your facts right!
Well if you do some research on this, you'll find that economic fears played a large part of the swing to yes in the second referendum. If you read the study I've linked to it pretty firmly set a belief that a yes vote would lead to improved economic situation as a major factor in the yes vote:
"In short, there is no evidence that the YES vote was driven by the negative personal economic circumstances in which many individuals found themselves. However, there is very firm evidence that the expectation that a YES vote would lead to an improvement in the country’s economic prospects substantially increased the propensity to vote YES."
I would agree, however that the low turnout in the first referendum was a major factor for it's initial defeat. Feel free to check the facts yourself.
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  #1511  
Old 15.04.2016, 21:41
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

According to Tagesanzeiger today it is forecast that the net increase in immigrants will be 50,000 people in Switzerland this year (excluding asylum seekers).

This compares with,
2015; 71'495
2014, 78'902
2013; 81'084.

Source

This is a net figure and one big contribution to this forecast is the number of foreigners leaving.

Reasons for this could range from improving opportunities in other countries to people/companies feeling less welcome here.
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Old 18.04.2016, 20:09
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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According to Tagesanzeiger today it is forecast that the net increase in immigrants will be 50,000 people in Switzerland this year (excluding asylum seekers).

This compares with,
2015; 71'495
2014, 78'902
2013; 81'084.

Source

This is a net figure and one big contribution to this forecast is the number of foreigners leaving.

Reasons for this could range from improving opportunities in other countries to people/companies feeling less welcome here.
It could have to do with that many foreign people are just sick and tired of reading about the Swiss and their anti immigration issues. I can fully understand that they need to have some sort of control mechanisms in place as its a small country.
However, encouraging foreign firms to move to Switzerland and then moaning that they recruit foreign staff is not the answer. During the run up to the last vote , a group of international managers arrived at Zurich rail station. What were they treated with? A swastika. The German managers amount were really embarrassed. The American head of the group , said well I don`t want to be exposed to this so we will not be expanding in Switzerland.
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Old 18.04.2016, 23:15
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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However, encouraging foreign firms to move to Switzerland and then moaning that they recruit foreign staff is not the answer. During the run up to the last vote , a group of international managers arrived at Zurich rail station. What were they treated with? A swastika. The German managers amount were really embarrassed. The American head of the group , said well I don`t want to be exposed to this so we will not be expanding in Switzerland.
That's because it's a pluralistic society, different people with different opinions. It's not a one party rules everything italian style.
The swastika thing could happen in any country, it's usually extreme leftists. Maybe it's not worth having that firm if their managers are so stuck-up.

Personally I don't think a person decides on staying/leaving based on the news about immigration, the debate is heating in any european country at the moment. In italy it's a circus. For a german moving to one side or the other can be due to personal decisions, to the fact that it's not worth it anymore, etc. you are still leaving family and stuff behind when you move to switzerland and they're not all expat crowd.
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Old 18.04.2016, 23:17
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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encouraging foreign firms to move to Switzerland and then moaning that they recruit foreign staff is not the answer.
Indeed, such practices should be prohibited.

Tom
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Old 19.04.2016, 12:17
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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That's because it's a pluralistic society, different people with different opinions. It's not a one party rules everything italian style.
The swastika thing could happen in any country, it's usually extreme leftists. Maybe it's not worth having that firm if their managers are so stuck-up.

Personally I don't think a person decides on staying/leaving based on the news about immigration, the debate is heating in any european country at the moment. In italy it's a circus. For a german moving to one side or the other can be due to personal decisions, to the fact that it's not worth it anymore, etc. you are still leaving family and stuff behind when you move to switzerland and they're not all expat crowd.
I should have mentioned that the Swastika was displayed on a huge advertisement board sponsored by one of the Swiss political parties
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  #1516  
Old 19.04.2016, 15:02
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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I should have mentioned that the Swastika was displayed on a huge advertisement board sponsored by one of the Swiss political parties
Yes, that was the Socialist Party being asswholes, as usual.

Tom
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Old 19.04.2016, 20:47
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

The US faces significant labour shortages in a wide range of sectors as unemployment falls towards 4 per cent and the working-age population stagnates, the Conference Board said in a report.
There is very little that could be done about it barring major immigration reform,” said Gad Levanon, chief economist, North America at the Conference Board. “
This driving higher wages across the US.

Source

Meanwhile here in Switzerland "Switzerland's official jobless rate fell in March to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent in the previous month, driven by a drop in foreign unemployment"

and immigration is declining!
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  #1518  
Old 19.04.2016, 20:56
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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I should have mentioned that the Swastika was displayed on a huge advertisement board sponsored by one of the Swiss political parties
What was teh message of the ad?
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  #1519  
Old 24.04.2016, 11:58
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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What was teh message of the ad?
Our cheese is better!!! This is the right way to cut it, FOLLOW THE LINES !!!
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  #1520  
Old 26.04.2016, 10:13
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Re: Repercussions of [immigration limits] Vote Already Starting...

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What was teh message of the ad?
Take a look at the ad - it's pretty obvious what the message is, and it's downright idiotic! http://files.newsnetz.ch/story/1/5/0...topelement.jpg
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