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  #41  
Old 02.04.2008, 15:45
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

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. Risk managers regularly look at loss exposure in terms of VAR and stress tests look at stuff like up and down changes of 10%, 15% and 20% in prices and volatility rather than event risks of the magnitude we’ve seen
And as long as people keep looking at VaR and managing accordingly stuff like this will still happen.
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  #42  
Old 02.04.2008, 15:48
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

I suggest putting it in, taking it out, and then shaking it all about. It's obvious really.

And I don't work in finance derivatives at all ,ever in the world.

dave


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As a junior member of EF I feel that I am fully qualified to say yes, you should take it out. The world is clearly ending. Or not. Seriously, what kind of an answer do you expect? On the one hand, yes, take it out. On the other, what, are you totally paranoid?

Please post your address so that I may send you my outrageous bill.
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  #43  
Old 02.04.2008, 15:53
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

@Bruce,

You might have misunderstood my last post. What, exactly, are you going to do with your money if you take it out of UBS? Open an account at Migros and you are faced with an entirely different set of potential problems. If you are seriously concerned about a run on UBS then go to your local branch, ask them for large denomination notes and open a safety deposit box, put you money in there and go home and sleep well. Or perhaps just take the money home with you, because if UBS fails, the branches will be locked up tight and you will not be able to get to your safe for some time. As I asked previously, what kind of an answer do you expect on an internet chat forum???

Try google.

http://swiss-bank-accounts.com/e/faq/deposit-insurance.html (a commercial posting, mind you)

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There's no government deposit insurance in Switzerland, with the exception of the Swiss cantonal bank account. But your deposits are probably safer in a Swiss bank than in most other banks in the world. Here's why:Swiss banks have a private deposits insurance
Swiss banks have signed an agreement by which they agree to compensate depositors for up to Sfr.30'000 of their deposits in a bank if that bank goes bankrupt. Each bank would then pay a share of the total compensation proportional to their size. The Swiss postal is an exception since all deposits are fully guaranteed by the Swiss Government.
Swiss banks don't go bankrupt
Swiss banks have some of the strongest balance sheets in the world. They are regulated by the Swiss Federal Banking commission, the federal watchdog, which enforces very strict rules. Almost the only instances when banks encounter difficulties, about once in a decade, are for small savings and loans that loaned too much money on too little collateral. They are usually bought out by a larger bank.
Unlimited state deposit insurance for the Swiss cantonal account
Not convinced or want to hedge your bet? No problem. If you can abide by the strict minimum balance policy of the Swiss cantonal bank account, this account comes with 100% deposit insurance offered by one of the wealthiest cantons in Switzerland. Infinitely better than US FDIC, this unlimited state guarantee covers all your deposit.
You're welcome.

Last edited by Ratbert; 02.04.2008 at 16:10. Reason: details details
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  #44  
Old 02.04.2008, 16:04
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

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The big question at least two people asked is (make me the third):

MY MONEY IS IN UBS!! SHOULD I TAKE IT OUT!!!



Is there a federal insurance program here (FDIC in the US) ? How does it work?

Thanks from the frantic crowd who want to make sure the greedy *******s don't escape with their hard earned cash...
I haven't seen any speculation that UBS is danger of going belly up in a way that would affect depositors. They are in the eye of the sub-prime storm so there are a lot of commentators out there. They have problems and some serious challenges ahead which should concern shareholders. But they appear sound enough to have been able to attract new capital. Look thru the threads. There are discussions on deposit protection if you are worried and if you can't sleep at nights you always have other choices. Here's an article which seems balanced:
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/feedback...05&sid=8920166
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  #45  
Old 02.04.2008, 17:01
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

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Here's an article which seems balanced:
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/feedback...05&sid=8920166
That article quotes Prof.Geiger (formerly CS, now at Uni ZH) "Ospel's resignation signals an end to nasty surprises."

Strange logic that! There may be skeletons in the closet yet to be discovered. The departure of any individual may prevent future damage but the prior shambles remain.
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  #46  
Old 02.04.2008, 17:27
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

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That article quotes Prof.Geiger (formerly CS, now at Uni ZH) "Ospel's resignation signals an end to nasty surprises."

Strange logic that! There may be skeletons in the closet yet to be discovered. The departure of any individual may prevent future damage but the prior shambles remain.
My thoughts exactly. It has no bearing on how much more of this stuff is hiding in their books.

Another thing, the original report said:

Sonntag said UBS is suffering from a cash drain after customers in the Zurich area alone removed funds worth 700 million francs as of March 26.


Clearly someone was tipped off in advance about the announcement of forthcoming losses. Whoever these people who were privy to top-level information about the bank were, they felt it prudent to remove their deposits..... Doesn't inspire confidence.
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  #47  
Old 02.04.2008, 17:41
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

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Sonntag said UBS is suffering from a cash drain after customers in the Zurich area alone removed funds worth 700 million francs as of March 26.

Clearly someone was tipped off in advance about the announcement of forthcoming losses. Whoever these people who were privy to top-level information about the bank were, they felt it prudent to remove their deposits..... Doesn't inspire confidence.
Conventional thinking is (was): big bank means solid. Not true! Big bank means big problems.

Also the cap of 4 billions in the loss compensation pool is a penalty for big banks. With a million customers, each would recover CHF 4'000 in a worst case scenario. Hence, the wealthy are exiting.
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  #48  
Old 02.04.2008, 19:01
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

Well, if magazine covers are the contrarian indicators that everyone says they are, we should be just about at the bottom...


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  #49  
Old 02.04.2008, 20:09
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

It's raining investment bankers on Wall Street, I hear...
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  #50  
Old 02.04.2008, 21:54
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

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Sonntag said UBS is suffering from a cash drain after customers in the Zurich area alone removed funds worth 700 million francs as of March 26.
This is how it starts:
http://www.offthemarkcartoons.com/ca...1995-08-29.gif

This is how it finishes:
http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscart.../ksmn2071l.jpg

Haven't seen queues forming up as yet in Paradeplatz.
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  #51  
Old 05.04.2008, 18:54
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

Full marks to Luqman Arnold who is putting the spotlight on the core of UBS's problems - weak management:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...5/cnUBS105.xml

In a nut shell the article says that QUOTE "to make sure the mistakes of the past are not repeated, Mr Arnold wants the bank's corporate governance overhauled. Its first act, he says, should be finding a more suitable candidate than incumbent Peter Kurer ..."His appointment perpetuates UBS's ineffective corporate governance and insular culture." Having watched the board being replenished by internal appointments, he wants an "outstanding external Swiss candidate with proven strategic, risk management and communications experience" to take over. He would not stand himself, but is urging UBS to fix its problems by bringing in fresh blood rather than asking those who broke it to fix it.UNQUOTE

There another angle to this too. In an earlier post Gav alluded to concerns about whether there are more skeletons lurking in UBS’s cupboard. I don’t know whether there are or there aren't. Anything's possible I guess and given their gung ho attitude to sub prime risk it shouldn’t be a surprise if they've been aggressive risk takers in other areas of their business. But an outsider appointment would have gone some way to boosting confidence on that score. Outsiders are untainted by past mistakes and have an incentive to start with a clean slate by getting all the bad news out into the public domain. If Kurer has value to add in digging UBS out of their mess then by all means keep him but Arnold makes sense - UBS needs a new broom at the top. That's been the starting point for the likes of Citigroup and Merrill.

The other thing that's surprising is the appointment the guy they brought in this month to run the investment bank from Morgan Stanley. Apparently he's never run a whole investment bank before, only parts of one. Since it's the investment bank is at the heart of what brought UBS to it's knees you have to wonder why the UBS board thinks that's enough to fix the problem.

Whichever way you look at it, UBS’s management has been incompetent and so far they've done little to face up to the fact that to mend the broken business model they need an infusion of new management DNA. That's why I say shareholders should be worried. Them and the families whose breadwinners at UBS who are going to be fired as a result of Management incompetence.
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  #52  
Old 05.04.2008, 19:00
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

Do Zurcher Kantonalbank and Die Post do online banking and correspondence in English like UBS?
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  #53  
Old 05.04.2008, 19:06
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

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Do Zurcher Kantonalbank and Die Post do online banking and correspondence in English like UBS?
The Post online banking is available in English. See this.
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  #54  
Old 05.04.2008, 19:28
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

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Or expect to get one of these:
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Dear Candidate

Thank you very much for your interest and your application for the position as

Worker Bee (UBS40127)

We regret to advise you that, after careful consideration of your skills and experience, we shall not be pursuing your application for the above position, as the position and the department have been closed. Other bees have been reallocated or swatted as necessary

In order to consider you for any future opportunities, we would like to retain your details for a period of four hundred years - although we will never call you, we like to fool ourselves into thinking our bank will be around this long. If you do not wish us to keep your data, please inform us accordingly within the next seven days or do nothing and we will delete/shred it when we swarm off this sinking hulk.

We would like to invite you to visit our career website www.ubs.com/careers and apply online, should you find a position that meets your interests and qualifications (as if). Please note the very positive face we still manage to put on things. Can you believe that we still get resumes? (okay, most of these are from soon-to-be-ex-Bear Stearns employees).

We wish you all the best for your future career.

Yours sincerely,
UBS Human Resources




Thank you for this hysterical re-write of the UBS HR reject letter. I laughed so loud at the worker bee references that my neighbors now think I'm certifiable!
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  #55  
Old 07.05.2008, 07:41
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Re: UBS looks for 16bn CHF capital increase...

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Heard from friends that the Zurich employees are bitter and mutually suspicious of each other. Of course, budgets and bonuses slashed ...
can't believe I missed this first time round ....

situation normal then ....
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