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  #41  
Old 08.04.2020, 21:55
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Yesterday there was a study released by University College, London on the effectiveness of school closures. Hopefully if the UK government maintains a science-based approach, this will be factored into a decision to re-open them soon.
But the debate is whether or not the impact on the adults working in the schools has been lessened. A secondary school teacher works with c.150 -180 kids per day, probably comes into contact with upwards of 25 adults per day (not counting whole staff meetings) and often share classrooms, resources and office space. All those people encounter the same amount of people plus folk at home. The potential for spreading any illness is enormous - it doesn't take long for a sickness bug, for example, to decimate a school.

Then there are vulnerable teachers: asthmatic, diabetic, pregnant, cancer survivors, cancer survivors, transplant recipients, all manner of conditions. Is it really fair to expose these people to potential harm for the sake of few more weeks of playing it safe? Plus, on a practical note, with exams cancelled but education still mandatory, what the hell are the exam year kids supposed to be taught? Most won't continue most GCSE subjects for example. Year 13 kids are in similar position.

The fact remains, they don't really know for sure. Closing the schools may have had a significant impact but it's impossible to separate out the data.

It's likely easier for schools to be open for all - it'll ease the child care issue - but it is not necessarily safer.
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  #42  
Old 08.04.2020, 23:17
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Lol oh dear.

It's funny, I think socialist types are disproportionately likely to encourage a long lockdown and ignore it themselves (Kinnocks I'm looking at you, Londoners in general), whilst right wingers are more likely to encourage people not to panic and get back to work ASAP and then take a very conservative approach themselves. I'm no exception.

Doubtless the SVP will find a way to blame foreigners
"Socialist types?" I guess people who are against "socialist types" would have to refuse any government assistance if they lost their jobs due to the crisis.
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Old 08.04.2020, 23:43
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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You don't understand the disease.
The elderly and those with underlying conditions have a higher mortality rate. A significant number of younger people in "good" health suffer a severe attack and some die. It is a very sick mentality (IMHO) that would sacrifice these people for the sake of the economy. The jury is out on the Swedish approach, time will tell.
1) It's alarmist to suggest that this disease kills young healthy people in significant numbers.

2) To criticise the Swedish approach it is necessary to identify how you can protect vulnerable people in the long term. If you can't (which is of course the case as there was a no cure and won't be for years - forget this 18 months business) then you damage the economy in the long run (itself having an absolutely enormous impact on people) for no good reason. It fundamentally misunderstands the point of the lockdown, which is not to eradicate the disease (it's too infectious and mild( but to not overburden the health care system.
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Old 09.04.2020, 01:25
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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1) It's alarmist to suggest that this disease kills young healthy people in significant numbers.

2) To criticise the Swedish approach it is necessary to identify how you can protect vulnerable people in the long term. If you can't (which is of course the case as there was a no cure and won't be for years - forget this 18 months business) then you damage the economy in the long run (itself having an absolutely enormous impact on people) for no good reason. It fundamentally misunderstands the point of the lockdown, which is not to eradicate the disease (it's too infectious and mild( but to not overburden the health care system.
1) It's ludicrous to suggest that it might not. No-one knows for sure. It's viral Russian Roulette.

2) Are you an epidemiologist or biologist? How can you say how far away a vaccine is? That's alarmist in itself. The "no good reason" is preventing this virus from killing thousands upon thousands.

Mild? Pay attention and /or maybe talk to an ICU doctor or nurse (if they're not already on their knees with exhaustion).
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  #45  
Old 09.04.2020, 06:27
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

It is not alarmist but realistic to believe that:

Cov 19 kills at least 10 times more people than the normal flu in all age groups except the under 20's (not sure where the cut-off is)
It is contagious in asymptomatic infected people which would require blanket testing to identify carriers.

From a moral perspective, the arguments for continuing a fairly tight (we are lucky in Switzerland that compliance is high) shut-down are clear.

If your right-wing libertarian views lead you to conclude that keeping the economy running means you should end the lock down - step out of your own shadow -the log term economics of ending the lock-down do not add up and even if they did....
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  #46  
Old 09.04.2020, 08:20
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

Finally an SVP initiative that we can ALL get behind!!

Something has to be done though, the economy is tanking! Singapore have just gone into a second lockdown due to a second wave of Coronavirus. This isn't going away! Either we accept it and try and protect the vulnerable, or many won't have jobs to go back to.
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  #47  
Old 09.04.2020, 09:11
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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right-wing libertarian views
Libertarians are in the middle, NOT right wing!

Tom
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  #48  
Old 09.04.2020, 09:13
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Sorry no, you have been insutling Berset for weeks, that is what my 'groan' is about.
Berset deserves to be insulted.

Tom
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Old 09.04.2020, 09:16
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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If your right-wing libertarian views lead you to conclude that keeping the economy running means you should end the lock down - step out of your own shadow -the log term economics of ending the lock-down do not add up and even if they did....
The economy needs to keep running to pay for public services too! Bad economy --> less tax revenue --> less money for schools, hospitals, infrastructure, vulnerable people!
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Old 09.04.2020, 09:33
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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"Socialist types?" I guess people who are against "socialist types" would have to refuse any government assistance if they lost their jobs due to the crisis.



Made me think of it too. Unfortunately we can't decide to whom our taxes and unemployment contributions have to or would go. But those who have secure jobs, like OH, would never throw under the bus other people.

It's the ones who're actually in need of social assistance (or at least some form of it) now that are the most vocal. And those whose profits/revenues are heavily affected and can't stand losing money.

Yes, the economy must find a way to keep going, but only on the safe mode. And ready to adjust or go back to tougher measures any time.
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  #51  
Old 09.04.2020, 09:52
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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shall I groan myself Tom, to save you the trouble
Yes, it's well deserved!

Tom
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  #52  
Old 09.04.2020, 09:53
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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"Socialist types?" I guess people who are against "socialist types" would have to refuse any government assistance if they lost their jobs due to the crisis.
Unemployment insurance is NOT social aid.

Tom
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  #53  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:06
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Unemployment insurance is NOT social aid.

Tom
Only when it fits the narrative.
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Old 09.04.2020, 10:27
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Libertarians are in the middle, NOT right wing!

Tom
Libertarianism is neither left nor right, it's orthogonal to the left-right divide/spectrum.
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  #55  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:48
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

Folk do realise that the point of a lockdown isn't to eradicate the virus but to stagger responses so the health services don't buckle under the overwhelming strain...?
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  #56  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:54
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Folk do realise that the point of a lockdown isn't to eradicate the virus but to stagger responses so the health services don't buckle under the overwhelming strain...?
We're doing such a good job that we have to send medical staff home to claim unemployment. Success!
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Old 09.04.2020, 10:54
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Folk do realise that the point of a lockdown isn't to eradicate the virus but to stagger responses so the health services don't buckle under the overwhelming strain...?
In Switzerland there is no strain, medical staff are being furloughed due to a lack of work, which is why the country needs to start reopening.
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  #58  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:55
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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2) Are you an epidemiologist or biologist? How can you say how far away a vaccine is? That's alarmist in itself. The "no good reason" is preventing this virus from killing thousands upon thousands..
I'm a science PhD who works in the pharma area. I use clinical trial data everyday, although I don't conduct them myself. I'm not saying it's impossible to have a vaccine on this timescale, just that it's an absolute best case scenario and there are no guarantees even on a significantly longer timescale. You need to have a plan based on it not coming for a number of years.

Last edited by jorido; 09.04.2020 at 11:05.
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Old 09.04.2020, 10:55
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

! am adding Tonic water & zinc to my shopping list today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHMy...24l06WqFsXqnuY
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Old 09.04.2020, 10:56
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Let's not forget also that for some people, a few years may be the last years they have. The last days, months and weeks they get to see their children or grandchildren.
Certainly my 89 year old mother would rather be with her children and grandchildren. We were planning to gather the clan for her upcoming 90th birthday; that we might not be able to do so has been a disappointment. Yes, isolation has taken it's toll.

However, she fully understands that for now the best thing she can do in order to be able to be with her children and grandchildren (a doctor and two nurses on the front lines in CA and NYC included) soon-ish is to stay healthy. Which means staying home. She would be the last person to push for relaxing restrictions.

On the bright side:

Finally, after many years and many tears, technophobic Mom has finally found the motivation to learn to use her iPhone and Skype. She can gather her family around her virtually - and for now, is happy with that.
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