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Old 08.04.2020, 14:44
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SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

Hi all,

SVP (and the kanton of Luzern) is actively trying to gradually end the lock down after the 19th of April.

https://www.20min.ch/schweiz/news/st...rden--22714574

Apparently the government won't make a decision and/or announcement until just a few days prior, which I think isn't fair for parents and employers to prepare accordingly. Some colleagues of mine have been told that their school won't open until May, others have heard nothing.

What do you think about reopening after 19th of April? I feel it is far too soon and we will have to soon close up again, like what is happening in Japan.
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Old 08.04.2020, 15:22
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Hi all,

SVP (and the kanton of Luzern) is actively trying to gradually end the lock down after the 19th of April.

https://www.20min.ch/schweiz/news/st...rden--22714574

Apparently the government won't make a decision and/or announcement until just a few days prior, which I think isn't fair for parents and employers to prepare accordingly. Some colleagues of mine have been told that their school won't open until May, others have heard nothing.

What do you think about reopening after 19th of April? I feel it is far too soon and we will have to soon close up again, like what is happening in Japan.
My thoughts:

I think its fine as long as its gradual and carefully monitored. Cases should be really quite low by then looking at the shape of the curve.

In my mind there is really only one possible exit strategy and that's keeping the number of cases below the health care capacity, being careful to keep the transmission rates reasonably low and slowly building herd immunity (or at least enough of a herd effect that it makes it significantly easier to maintain a low transmission rate). You can't rely on a vaccine or you might be waiting a decade.

By 19 April we will be well below the health care capacity so its time to start the gradual reopening process. I think those who can easily work from home should be able to, but schools and shops should reopen, the latter with strict controls over number of people allowed in at one time.

Basically whatever the FDP go with ill probably go with.

Last edited by jorido; 08.04.2020 at 15:34.
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Old 08.04.2020, 15:28
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

I'd rather it stays this way a tad longer, I think if easing off the lockdown too soon will up the chance of the 2nd wave of infections.

However, I think they could open shops such as hardware stores, garden centers and similar stores with the same rules applying as to Migros and Coop.

Only 1 customer per 10sqm of the shop. Keeping your distance etc etc

But only starting to ease off the lockdown towards beginning of May and give the curve of infections more time to flatten, the signs are already beginning to look promising.

'Gring ache u seckle' a famous Bernese lass once said, translated, it means 'look down and walk on'...e.g.be stoical and pragmatic about it, you can't change it and make the most of it to progress.
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Old 08.04.2020, 15:55
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Hi all,

SVP (and the kanton of Luzern) is actively trying to gradually end the lock down after the 19th of April.

https://www.20min.ch/schweiz/news/st...rden--22714574

Apparently the government won't make a decision and/or announcement until just a few days prior, which I think isn't fair for parents and employers to prepare accordingly. Some colleagues of mine have been told that their school won't open until May, others have heard nothing.

What do you think about reopening after 19th of April? I feel it is far too soon and we will have to soon close up again, like what is happening in Japan.
What's to prepare for going back to normal? Going into lock-down was new and complicated for many - and they did pretty well.

We can not go back and forth with lock-down. No point in rushing this and find out the past weeks were all for nothing. I personally find May more realistic. And I wouldn't be surprised if the behaviour of the population over Easter would have a big impact on the decision.
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Old 08.04.2020, 15:57
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

Cannot see any opening until at least 4th May tbh. I think it will take us that long to get back to a similar curve to the Austrians.
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Old 08.04.2020, 16:13
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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And I wouldn't be surprised if the behaviour of the population over Easter would have a big impact on the decision.

THIS!

Let's hope the populations has gotten smart by now and knows to stay home now!!
Regardless if the weather is fine or one owns a cabin somewhere or is itching to take the bike out.
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Old 08.04.2020, 16:19
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

https://youtu.be/_D9F-sww0X4
Swiss Federal Council - Press Conference 07.04.2020

Daniel Koch, Delegierter des BAG für COVID-19

This section is about ending lockdown.

A journalist asked:
Which errors should we not make, as we plan the opening into the time afterwards?

Daniel Koch :
The Swiss Federal Council is, of course, discussing the next steps, by observing several systems, one of which is the rate of new infections, but of course this is a trend but an uncertain amount of infections. However, of course it shows a trend. We are, however, not yet at the point that we can declare that the worst is over. This is not yet the case.

As we do not know how the new people are getting infected, we are observing other matters. We are looking at the differences between the effects in regions and hospitals. We are looking at the ways that tests were made, at the rate of hospitalisation at all, and of those needing to go into an intensive care ward, and of those, the death rate. One of these measures is simply counting the allocation of the beds, but of course that is not all.

None of these factors, alone, is the single criterion that will determine when to loosen the measures.

We are observing to see whether there are factors which indicate what works better and worse, to see if we can extrapolate from that, how best to loosen the measures. There are research projects which are now trying to test post-infection immunity, or why some people are ill for a fairly long time then seem to stabilise and then their condition declines markedly, which is possibly an immune system reaction, but it is still too early to know the results of these research projects.

It will be important not to relax the measures suddenly. Our journey back to normality must be structured and careful, without causing new damage, so the focus must be to prevent the rate of new infections rises again.

This may include, for example, in the first phase of beginning to lift the measures, still keeping to the notion that risk patients should not immediately have operations, so that they are not exposed to the additional risk of virus infection.

We are still in a most unusual situation. The wishes or demands of a political party or of a regional or cantonal authority, to give up on the measures, are being discussed.

We cannot aim for an optimal balance between health and economy. That cannot be done. Rather, we’re trying to work out what needs to be done to keep as many people in Switzerland healthy, as possible. And of course, that includes the economy.

The measures, and how they are being implemented, is certainly causal that the figures are no longer rising dramatically exponentially, and that the healthy system is coping, fairly wall. The charge to everyone is to carry it through, don’t give up now, don’t jeopardise what has been achieved.

The population has accepted the measures remarkably well. It is not the actual rules which make the difference, but the extent to which the population understands what the measures are about. It was similar with the introduction of seat-belts in cars. When the population really grasps that these measures are important to reduce the risks for everyone, then they are more likely to stick to them.

A journalist asks about the schools, and referred to what is going to be done in Austria, as an example.
Daniel Koch:
Again, it is too early to say. Moreover, we cannot know which is the right sequence… first the shops, or first the schools, we just do not know, and there is no gold standard. It could be that in a few years’ time we will know, but perhaps we never will.

A journalist asks whether, in all of this, it shouldn’t be made obligatory for all doctors and hospitals to report incidents to a central point.
Daniel Koch:
Yes, there will be one, but not of the tests right now, but of an anonymised version: this is going to be implemented very soon, and a centre and programme are being prepared to accept the input, as one more tool in our attempt try to understand the overview of the whole population’s infection and the progress of the illness.

Disclaimer:
As Tom1234 rightly pointed out in response to a similar post of mine in another thread, this is a paraphrase (from careful listening) and I make no claim that this is 100% accurate transcription. If anyone else spots errors, I'd be glad to have them corrected. Thank you.
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Old 08.04.2020, 16:21
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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I'd rather it stays this way a tad longer, I think if easing off the lockdown too soon will up the chance of the 2nd wave of infections.
Without heard immunity there will always be a second wave of infections, it's not as if we can be in lock down indefinitely. Possibly Sweden has the answer & only isolates the old & people in poor health.
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Old 08.04.2020, 16:28
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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A journalist asks about the schools, and referred to what is going to be done in Austria, as an example.
Daniel Koch:
Again, it is too early to say. Moreover, we cannot know which is the right sequence… first the shops, or first the schools, we just do not know, and there is no gold standard. It could be that in a few years’ time we will know, but perhaps we never will.
Yesterday there was a study released by University College, London on the effectiveness of school closures. Hopefully if the UK government maintains a science-based approach, this will be factored into a decision to re-open them soon.

Quote:
School closures are likely to have a relatively small impact on the spread of Covid-19 and should be weighed against their profound economic and social consequences, particularly for the most vulnerable children, according to a UK study.

The research, led by University College London (UCL), is the first to look at evidence behind many governments’ decision to shut schools and keep pupils at home.

According to the UN’s education body, Unesco, more than 90% of the world’s pupils have been affected by closures.

The UCL-led study concludes that the evidence to support the closure of schools to combat Covid-19 is “very weak”, and statistics from influenza outbreaks suggest school closures “could have relatively small effects on a virus with Covid-19’s high transmissibility and apparent low clinical effect on schoolchildren”.
Full story
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Old 08.04.2020, 16:31
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Without herd immunity there will always be a second wave of infections, it's not as if we can be in lock down indefinitely. Possibly Sweden has the answer & only isolates the old & people in poor health.
Sweden doesn't seem to be doing too badly either. They've certainly provided the rest of Europe with a bit of confidence that we can manage long term with social distancing but no lockdown. South Korea has managed this too.

To advocate continuing with the lockdown in entireity its really necessary for one to explain their exit strategy and why a continued complete lockdown is required for compliance with said exit strategy. I don't see any logic in that path personally unless its go give us a bit more time to scale up testing. If we reopen slowly enough we don't need a vastly higher number of tests in the short term.

Last edited by jorido; 08.04.2020 at 16:44.
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Old 08.04.2020, 16:34
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Without heard immunity there will always be a second wave of infections, it's not as if we can be in lock down indefinitely.
Of course!
And I didn't mean it to be indefinitely, but wait until 1st half of May to start easing it off (that is if the curve is continuing to flatten), also to allow for more tests to be produced, as well as procure the much needed medical materials and supplies, give our health care workers some respite, as well as to all the other people (lorry drivers, shop assistants, postal workers) who are working their asses off to keep us in food and stuff, they're entitled to some breathing space too , before a possibly 2nd wave of infections might hit.
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Old 08.04.2020, 16:44
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Yesterday there was a study released by University College, London on the effectiveness of school closures. Hopefully if the UK government maintains a science-based approach, this will be factored into a decision to re-open them soon.
Thanks, very interesting. OH is a ex UCH man, so we tend to trust what their say. In the case of International schools, which are of course very much a minority- they closed too late, a couple of weeks after the students returned from affected areas all over the world after half-term.
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Old 08.04.2020, 16:47
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Without heard immunity there will always be a second wave of infections, it's not as if we can be in lock down indefinitely. Possibly Sweden has the answer & only isolates the old & people in poor health.
Do we even know enough about herd immunity at this point? It would be helpful to understand the characteristics of covid-19 acquired immunity before we depend on it.
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Old 08.04.2020, 16:51
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

It's official - the lockdown will be prolonged till 26th of Aprile, after that health and economy departments will work together on a plan to gradually allow some businesses to open again, but only if they can follow precautionary measures. So for the moment what we know for sure it's that nothing changes till 26th...then we'll see again.
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Old 08.04.2020, 16:56
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Without heard immunity there will always be a second wave of infections, it's not as if we can be in lock down indefinitely. Possibly Sweden has the answer & only isolates the old & people in poor health.
No we can't. There will have to be something like steps (home-office can't end before schools reopen for example) and while shopping and getting the hair cut will be possible again, the open-air concerts in the mud (it usually rains, right?) may not happen this summer.

The thing is we are now already better prepared for a second wave and know what's still to be done to be ready for it. It won't come as a surprise and a "never seen before" thing.
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Old 08.04.2020, 17:05
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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No we can't. There will have to be something like steps (home-office can't end before schools reopen for example) and while shopping and getting the hair cut will be possible again, the open-air concerts in the mud (it usually rains, right?) may not happen this summer.

The thing is we are now already better prepared for a second wave and know what's still to be done to be ready for it. It won't come as a surprise and a "never seen before" thing.
When I said indefinitely I did not mean a couple of months, but years many many years.
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Old 08.04.2020, 17:18
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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What's to prepare for going back to normal? Going into lock-down was new and complicated for many - and they did pretty well.
There are many people still having to go in for work. If they extend the lock down, they will have to find someone to care for their children for longer. I'm guessing most parents have already planned for this, but it would be nice to know definitively.
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Old 08.04.2020, 17:18
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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It's official - the lockdown will be prolonged till 26th of Aprile, after that health and economy departments will work together on a plan to gradually allow some businesses to open again, but only if they can follow precautionary measures. So for the moment what we know for sure it's that nothing changes till 26th...then we'll see again.
Link?
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Old 08.04.2020, 17:33
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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There are many people still having to go in for work. If they extend the lock down, they will have to find someone to care for their children for longer. I'm guessing most parents have already planned for this, but it would be nice to know definitively.
I'm sure that's what the Bundesrat thinks every day.
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Old 08.04.2020, 17:37
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Re: SVP trying to end the lock down after the 19th of April.

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Link?
https://www.20min.ch/schweiz/news/st...hweiz-29691128

is the closest I can find. Anyone got anything else?
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