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  #141  
Old 28.07.2022, 13:07
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Re: SNB rises rates to -0.25%

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But there is no other feasible way now other than getting through this and breaking out of the reliance on Russia. Which got us here in the first place.
Too bad it is now obvious that the Nordstream pipelines were mainly a political project. I wonder if the Eastern European countries want the EU as is or will it effectively break apart since the main pillar of it turned out not only untrustworthy but even scheming against them. So, German course might still stall or worse. Schroeder was seen in Moscow recently...
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  #142  
Old 28.07.2022, 13:25
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Re: SNB rises rates to -0.25%

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The Elephant in the Room is: How is the Winter going to turn out?

A very large number of people will fall into poverty in Germany over the next twelve months, due to rising energy costs. It's only a question of how many and how deep the hole will be.
If the worst case scenario turn reality, we could see a shutdown of large parts of the electrical grid and gas-supply for non-commercial consumers.

This will have long-term political consequences far beyond what can be "fixed" with a pair of warm socks and more layers of clothing.

At some point, there will be enough people (again, because we have seen this before) that have basically lost everything and are going to hold the politicians accountable.

The problem is that politicians in Germany are notoriously bad at explaining things to people - they like to brush problems under the rug.

The cracks at the edges of the EU due to debt and overall reckless finances - they are just the icing on the cake. Without Germany financing it all, the EU is just wishful thinking - if it every was much more to begin with.
You mean without Germany profiting from the EU?
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  #143  
Old 28.07.2022, 14:41
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Re: SNB rises rates to -0.25%

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You mean without Germany profiting from the EU?
Those profits are kept in the TARGET 2 balance. There's no way for Germany to force collection of them.
If the Euro fails that credit is probably lost.
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  #144  
Old 04.08.2022, 13:43
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Re: SNB rises rates to -0.25%

Bank of England raises by 0.5% to 1.75, forecasts UK inflation 13%
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  #145  
Old 22.09.2022, 12:59
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Re: SNB rises rates to -0.25%

Big Swiss rate rise today by 0.75%. rate now out of negative territory to 0.5%.
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  #146  
Old 22.09.2022, 13:28
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Re: SNB rises rates to -0.25%

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Big Swiss rate rise today by 0.75%. rate now out of negative territory to 0.5%.
Reaction seems to indicate the markets were expecting a little more. The CHF has dropped, guess the hope/expectation was for a full 1% point increase.

SNB has made it pretty clear there's more coming.
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  #147  
Old 22.09.2022, 16:40
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Re: SNB rises rates to -0.25%

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Reaction seems to indicate the markets were expecting a little more. The CHF has dropped, guess the hope/expectation was for a full 1% point increase.

SNB has made it pretty clear there's more coming.
I disagree regarding market expectations of a 1% rise.

Quoting myself from another thread:
IANAFXS (I‘m not an FX strategist), but my guess is that the inflation number and the forecast despite increasing rates are both higher than the June forecast when rates were last increased. Realised and forecast GDP are also lower. In the press release it also mentions that the SNB is willing to be active in the FX markets. I don‘t know if this is new language or not. If it is, that could also have an impact.
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  #148  
Old 22.09.2022, 17:12
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Re: SNB rises rates to -0.25%

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I disagree regarding market expectations of a 1% rise..
EUR:CHF jumped from belöow 0.95 to almost 0.97 on the announcement. As this was exactly with the announcement, clearly indicates the market had expected a little more.
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  #149  
Old 22.09.2022, 17:18
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Re: SNB rises rates to -0.25%

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EUR:CHF jumped from belöow 0.95 to almost 0.97 on the announcement. As this was exactly with the announcement, clearly indicates the market had expected a little more.
Had the other data points ref inflation and GDP growth both realised and forecast already been announced or was it all announced at the same time as the rate rise.

I don‘t follow the announcements closely enough to say for certain, but it reads to me as multiple sets of news used as justification for the rise.
https://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/...0220922.en.pdf
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  #150  
Old 22.09.2022, 17:18
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Re: SNB rises rates to -0.25%

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EUR:CHF jumped from belöow 0.95 to almost 0.97 on the announcement. As this was exactly with the announcement, clearly indicates the market had expected a little more.
Expectation was for 75bp with a slight chance of 100bp.
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