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  #181  
Old 26.09.2008, 11:44
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Bloomberg certainly have them.

237 for five year senior EUR
171 for two year senior EUR
Shorrick

any way lesser mortals (i.e. the Bloomberg-less) can access CDS quotes?
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  #182  
Old 26.09.2008, 11:51
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Marton

if you need a safe place to keep those gold bars, do give me a shout.

I run an AAA++ rated gold depository, very well capitalized (+5 billion $ equity).

p.s.

make that $ 50 billion
i keep losing track of the number of zeroes... damn the Zimbabwe Reserve Bank
Ok, they are in the post.

today's newspaper
"JPMorgan Chase acquired the banking assets of Washington Mutual marking the biggest bank failure in US history"
At least they were not nationalised

Marton
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  #183  
Old 26.09.2008, 12:51
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Ok, they are in the post.

today's newspaper
"JPMorgan Chase acquired the banking assets of Washington Mutual marking the biggest bank failure in US history"
At least they were not nationalised

Marton
they were more-or-less nationalized.
JP Morgan is now effectively an arm of the US Treasury. or the Fed....

what is amazing is how everyone spouts the tired old excuse that the market is unable to 'value' the financial assets, and yet deals are happening overnight... JP Morgan and Warren Buffett are certainly not paying real cash for paper they cannot value.

yes, they are only paying cents on the dollar, but that just goes to show that most banks are now only worth cents on the dollar!

by the way, Fortis is also sliding rapidly down the slippery slope...

Anyone want to buy some swaps on Fortis???
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  #184  
Old 26.09.2008, 13:12
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Re: How Safe is UBS

No kidding. Buffet is reported to have earned $783 million within hours of going in, and $3.5 Billion within 2 days. The man has the Midas touch. Perhaps he should be appointed to run the economy.
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  #185  
Old 26.09.2008, 14:14
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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what is amazing is how everyone spouts the tired old excuse that the market is unable to 'value' the financial assets,
Well in reality they could value them but at such a low value that the owner would likely be bankrupt.
Of course if you start from the point when the owner is bankrupt then you can sell the assets but as it is a forced sale the price will probably be lower than any value you might have had in mind. Once someone like Mr Buffet has bought the assets then the resale value becomes higher; because he has cash & can wait to sell until a decent offer appears.

Marton
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  #186  
Old 26.09.2008, 14:21
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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No kidding. Buffet is reported to have earned $783 million within hours of going in, and $3.5 Billion within 2 days. The man has the Midas touch. Perhaps he should be appointed to run the economy.
Impossible, if you are talking just about the Goldman investment. These number don't stack up. How can he possibly have made $3.5bn in two days off an intial investment of $5bn? I haven't seen the terms of the Buffet deal other than the the outline reported in the press but Goldman stock hasn't risen anywhere near enough to generate that kind of return. It's two days since he bought. He gets 10% interest which amounts to less than $3 million over two days. I don't know what his in price is but Goldman's stock has gone up only 5.5% in the last two days so that's another $275,000,000. All in all that gives under $280,000,000 upside and quite a bit of that was for no other reason than he made the investment - the "Buffet bounce". These are loose numbers but good enough for government work. These returns sound a lot in absolute terms but they're driven off a big investment and big risk. The stock could easily move down by 5% in one day given the current volatility, wiping out the $275mm gain. His gains in stock appreciation are only mark to market so they're not real and he could move into negative territory within hours, as he will find out to his cost if the Paulson package doesn't go through.
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  #187  
Old 26.09.2008, 14:33
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Impossible. His gains in stock appreciation are only mark to market so they're not real and he could move into negative territory within hours, as he will find out to his cost if the Paulson package doesn't go through.
He also has options to buy $5billion more; people say @ 115.

BTW, according to the FT today "Morgan Stanley lost close to a third of assets in its prime brokerage last week, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars"
Good thing people are not spreading rumours

marton
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  #188  
Old 26.09.2008, 14:46
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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And how would Switzerland's gold resereves figure in this scenario??

Unless they're big enough to bail out UBS or CS, I doubt they'll be that much use.

As for the hypothetical aftermath, IIRC Switzerland has signed up to a deal that means they aren't even allowed to peg their currency against gold.


It's quite astounding that people now are even openly contemplating UBS or CS going under. 9-12 months ago the possibility would have been deemed as so remote as to be unthinkable.


Still wondering what to do with my CHFs which account for about 60% of my savings currently. Under normal circumstances I'd be sitting with a smirk knowing that the Swiss Franc always does well in a financial crisis and that Swiss banks are ultra-safe places for cash. However the way this one has played out has shattered my confidence in that.

I could take advantage of exchange rates to put them into stg but I'm also fairly sure that we will see a Sterling crisis in the near to mid term.
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  #189  
Old 26.09.2008, 14:55
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Impossible, if you are talking just about the Goldman investment. These number don't stack up. How can he possibly have made $3.5bn in two days off an intial investment of $5bn?
Admittedly, these calculations are way too hokey pokey for me, but here's the source on the $3.5 Billion:
http://www.fortunewatch.com/35bn-two...warren-buffet/

And the $783 Billion:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle4821506.ece
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  #190  
Old 26.09.2008, 15:11
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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No kidding. Buffet is reported to have earned $783 million within hours of going in, and $3.5 Billion within 2 days. The man has the Midas touch. Perhaps he should be appointed to run the economy.
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Admittedly, these calculations are way too hokey pokey for me, but here's the source on the $3.5 Billion:
http://www.fortunewatch.com/35bn-two...warren-buffet/

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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, which has avoided major acquisitions in the financial sector in recent months, may have had a $3.5 billion two-day paper profit on six major banking and financial services investments.


I doubt Mr. Buffet made all his six "major banking and financial investments" only a few days ago. Hathaway has been a shareholder of Wells Fargo for years, so one could also say that they lost XYZ billions on his investments. All depends the timeframe you're looking at.

That article is very poorly written.
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  #191  
Old 26.09.2008, 15:17
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Admittedly, these calculations are way too hokey pokey for me, but here's the source on the $3.5 Billion:[
Okay, the article is talking about potential returns on his overall portfolio over the last few days. Given it's overall size it's feasible he makes out big on a bounce up but it ignores the losses he made on the gaps down so the numbers are meaningless. Net net he won't have done so good in the last few days. He makes money by buying cheap and holding for a very long time to ride out volatility like we're seeing now. Shorrick's right. The article is badly written.
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  #192  
Old 26.09.2008, 15:35
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Re: How Safe is UBS

That's true. His M.O. is to buy bargains. The point is Mr. Buffet likely saw a good bargain when he put $5B into Goldman Sachs. I doubt it was another magnanimous charity donation.
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  #193  
Old 26.09.2008, 15:41
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Admittedly, these calculations are way too hokey pokey for me, but here's the source on the $3.5 Billion:
http://www.fortunewatch.com/35bn-two...warren-buffet/

And the $783 Billion:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle4821506.ece
Phos

the article, poorly written as it is, and as Shorrick has pointed out, clearly uses the term 'paper profit' ... which is exactly that - profit-he-would-have-made-if-he-had-sold-at-that-price.....

millions of people made humongous (paper) profits on that same day
only a handful actually sold and saw their cash balance go up
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  #194  
Old 26.09.2008, 15:43
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Still wondering what to do with my CHFs which account for about 60% of my savings currently. Under normal circumstances I'd be sitting with a smirk knowing that the Swiss Franc always does well in a financial crisis and that Swiss banks are ultra-safe places for cash. However the way this one has played out has shattered my confidence in that.

I could take advantage of exchange rates to put them into stg but I'm also fairly sure that we will see a Sterling crisis in the near to mid term.
if you have a large CHF balance Gav, I'd seriously look at Swiss govt bonds.

easy, liquid and safe as houses
no really. they are the safest thing around
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  #195  
Old 26.09.2008, 16:10
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Still wondering what to do with my CHFs which account for about 60% of my savings currently. .......I could take advantage of exchange rates to put them into stg but I'm also fairly sure that we will see a Sterling crisis in the near to mid term.
Depends on your personal plans, if you plan to move to UK in future then not a bad idea to have your money in Stg. If there is a Sterling crisis in the near to mid term then you will have the same number of pound notes (coins?) but you will have less Stg. than you could have had if you had waited & changed your Swiss Francs post any Stg. crisis.

If you will stay here then keep it in CHF; somewhere safe like govt. bonds as suggested.

If you are really nervous then buy gold and hide it under your mattress; of course you will have to sit at home with a shotgun day & night.

Marton
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  #196  
Old 26.09.2008, 16:12
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Re: How Safe is UBS

Thanks for the tip.

How/where can I buy them, can I do it via UBS for example? I'm mainly interested in shielding my money till next summer, but I guess I can sell them on them. What are the costs involved?
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  #197  
Old 26.09.2008, 16:14
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Re: How Safe is UBS

ouch Gav

if you'd listened to Marton 10 minutes ago, your paper profit would have paid for a very nice vacation..

Gold shot up 4% in like 5 minutes ... some big boys are obviously getting reallll nervous

watch out for your daily dose of bad news... (did anyone go bankrupt today?)
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  #198  
Old 26.09.2008, 16:22
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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ouch Gav

if you'd listened to Marton 10 minutes ago, your paper profit would have paid for a very nice vacation..

Gold shot up 4% in like 5 minutes ... some big boys are obviously getting reallll nervous

watch out for your daily dose of bad news... (did anyone go bankrupt today?)
Seems they have "temporarily" stopped selling gold buffalo coins in the US due to stock shortages; they say.

marton
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  #199  
Old 27.09.2008, 02:49
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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If I insure Marton against a $1 billion loan loss from UBS and then I chicken out and cover myself by buying $1 billion insurance against the same loss from Dino then that counts as a CDS total of $2 billion. But if UBS defaults the only real amount at stake is 1 billion because my involvement is netted out ( I owe Marton but Dino owes me so only $ 1 billion is lost). That's the downside of an unregulated, OTC market - nobody knows the actual amounts at stake. That's the scary part.
And who is the genius we have to blame for this? I mean, come on, absolutely anyone can realize that this is stupid.

And btw, I don't think it would be "netted out" as you say: bankers can lose/win money, but if lawyers are involved, money *has to* end in their pockets. It's a bit like friction and heat.
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Old 27.09.2008, 03:17
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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That's true. His M.O. is to buy bargains. The point is Mr. Buffet likely saw a good bargain when he put $5B into Goldman Sachs. I doubt it was another magnanimous charity donation.
I think it s much simpler than that. Actually simple enough that even Paris Hilton has got it figured out: buy stakes in a club, start showing up there to party, club becomes successful, you make money. The name does it. He could announce he would sell in the near future his assets in another industry and everything would suddenly plummet there. Not just because of the amounts he would be selling but because of all the sheep following.
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