Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?] - Page 100

carver · #**1981** 27.03.2011, 12:57

	Quote:	marton
	What debate, the word implies multiple people involved? Very few people here are interested & even fewer participate

I was talking in general terms, but you may be referring to the debate I just had with Nev over the previous few pages?

marton · #**1982** 27.03.2011, 14:23

	Quote:	carver
	I was talking in general terms, but you may be referring to the debate I just had with Nev over the previous few pages?

That was not a debate that was a conversation between the two of you that you could have had directly by email without boring the socks off the us poor forum members.

#**1983** 27.03.2011, 14:29

	Quote:	carver
	I'd like to ... figure out what to do next financially.

carver · #**1984** 27.03.2011, 14:35

	Quote:	marton
	That was not a debate that was a conversation between the two of you that you could have had directly by email without boring the socks off the us poor forum members.

Let's not have a debate about what a debate is.

It did get pretty boring, for which I apologise. If a debate gets to that stage again, I'll try to continue it off-forum using the PM system.

carver · #**1985** 01.04.2011, 12:08

The Federal reserve has released the names & amounts of the banks that borrowed off them: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...nt-window.html

	Quote:
	At the height of the financial meltdown, on October 24, 2008, Dexia's New York branch was used to borrow $31.5bn (£19.6bn). The total borrowing from all banks during that week climbed to $111bn, according to lending data released by the central bank on Thursday. Depfa, a unit of the German lender Hypo Real Estate Holding, also tapped the window for $24.6bn. The Fed was forced to disclose the names of the banks and the amounts they borrowed after a legal challenge by Bloomberg. The central bank argued the release of the data could discourage banks from using the window in the future. "The information is backward-looking," said Ulrike Pommee, a spokeswoman for Dexia. "We experienced a great deal of tension concerning the liquidity of the dollar at the time." Dexia has since reduced its outstanding balance at the Fed to zero, said Ms Pommee. The release of more than 25,000 pages of documents also revealed that many US banks had borrowed surprisingly little from the discount window, the Fed's oldest lending tool. The data showed that Germany's Commerzbank, Royal Bank of Scotland and France's Societe Generale all used the facility.

marton · #**1986** 03.04.2011, 12:51

For Carver; as he likes this sort of thing

"In March 2010 Wachovia bank paid federal authorities $110m in forfeiture, for allowing transactions later proved to be connected to drug smuggling, and incurred a $50m fine for failing to monitor cash used to ship 22 tons of cocaine.

It was sanctioned for failing to apply the proper anti-laundering strictures to the transfer of $378.4bn – a sum equivalent to one-third of Mexico's gross national product – into dollar accounts from so-called casas de cambio (CDCs) in Mexico, currency exchange houses with which the bank did business.

At the height of the 2008 banking crisis, Antonio Maria Costa, then head of the United Nations office on drugs and crime, said he had evidence to suggest the proceeds from drugs and crime were "the only liquid investment capital" available to banks on the brink of collapse. "Inter-bank loans were funded by money that originated from the drugs trade," he said. "There were signs that some banks were rescued that way.""

BTW, from Swissinfo a couple of days ago "Recent indictments against Credit Suisse employees by the United States do not point to “systematic defrauding by the bank”, says the US ambassador to Switzerland."
Well thats OK then

carver · #**1987** 11.04.2011, 08:53

BBC: Gordon Brown admits big mistake over banking crisis

	Quote:
	Mr Brown told the Institute for New Economic Thinking in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, that he had been under "relentless pressure" from the City not to over-regulate. "We know in retrospect what we missed. We set up the Financial Services Authority (FSA) believing that the problem would come from the failure of an individual institution," he said. "So we created a monitoring system which was looking at individual institutions. That was the big mistake. "We didn't understand how risk was spread across the system, we didn't understand the entanglements of different institutions with the other and we didn't understand even though we talked about it just how global things were, including a shadow banking system as well as a banking system. "That was our mistake, but I'm afraid it was a mistake made by just about everybody who was in the regulatory business."

ozibird · #**1988** 11.04.2011, 21:10

	Quote:	carver
	It did get pretty boring, for which I apologise.

please don't ...it has been a gr8 read. I hate banks, IB's included. . "Insider"movie exposed a bit. Common denominator seems to be greed. Still a perpetual concern whether UBS will sink.What's with central banks 'leasing' gold to the market to keep the gold price low ?...so they can keep conducting loose monetary policy?

According to the WGC, total official central bank gold reserves at December 2010 were around 30,000 tonnes, so over 15,000 tonnes of gold has been lent out by central banks? so what ARE the banks really worth? how much has UBS "lent" out?

Will we have a liquidity crisis in physical gold? Will it only depend on a sharp increase in interest rates by the Fed to prevent this from happening? UBS say that the end of QE2 does not mean the days of fiat money are over....are they hiding something?

I've had a day battling incompetecy in banks and cut sea cables resulting in waiting 20 minutes to get a phone line out of the country (4 times)......another day tomorrow....arguing with banks to release my bank cheque funds etc.

Bless you all, I enjoy this forum gr8ly

#**1989** 12.04.2011, 15:02

	Quote:	Nev
	banks who cross the line deserve to be smacked hard.... The only way to get senior management to focus on it the problem is to hit them hard when their salesforce crosses the line.

Like this (UBS fined for misleading clients):

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business...l?cid=29981354

marton · #**1990** 12.04.2011, 16:13

	Quote:	Nev
	Like this (UBS fined for misleading clients): http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business...l?cid=29981354

That is good

carver · #**1991** 20.04.2011, 11:56

Rolling Stone magazine does it again:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...ilout-20110411

	Quote:
	The Real Housewives of Wall Street Why is the Federal Reserve forking over $220 million in bailout money to the wives of two Morgan Stanley bigwigs?

	Quote:
	Christy is the wife of John Mack, the chairman of Morgan Stanley. Susan is the widow of Peter Karches, a close friend of the Macks who served as president of Morgan Stanley's investment-banking division. Neither woman appears to have any serious history in business, apart from a few philanthropic experiences. Yet the Federal Reserve handed them both low-interest loans of nearly a quarter of a billion dollars through a complicated bailout program that virtually guaranteed them millions in risk-free income.

marton · #**1992** 29.04.2011, 10:28

	Quote:	GenevaSculler
	Thanks for the info Uncle Groove. I would be interested on your thoughts about how big an impact on Swiss banks is likely to arise from their exposure to domestic mortgages? I believe this is very low, my reasoning being that if interest rates are hiked very significantly* and assuming that that would lead to a big increase in defaults, the Swiss banks are still sat on at least a 20% valuation cushion (from the minimum 20% deposit required to get a mortgage) before they start taking losses on their investment. I think it must be relatively unlikely that valuations would fall by more than 20%... * I also think significant rate hikes are unlikely for quite a while, given the SNB is aiming to devalue the Swiss Franc - this suggests that they will try to keep rates lower compared to Europe/US for as long as possible.

About "I also think significant rate hikes are unlikely for quite a while"

Me too, but strangely I got a call this week from my UBS "client advisor" that I should think about my variable rate LIBOR based mortgage in case of a big increase in June! WTF!

I really do not see SNB increasing rates especially now the Fed & BOE seem to have turned their faces away from rises.
I suppose the ECB could make another rate rise but they are treading a delicate path to avoid pushing the "dodgy" euro countries over the financial edge into disaster.

Plus the CHF at this moment just dipped below 87 rappen & the euro is at 1.29; SNB would be mad to raise rates - or am I missing something?

AbFab · #**1993** 29.04.2011, 10:36

	Quote:	marton
	About "I also think significant rate hikes are unlikely for quite a while" Me too, but strangely I got a call this week from my UBS "client advisor" that I should think about my variable rate LIBOR based mortgage in case of a big increase in June! WTF! I really do not see SNB increasing rates especially now the Fed & BOE seem to have turned their faces away from rises. I suppose the ECB could make another rate rise but they are treading a delicate path to avoid pushing the "dodgy" euro countries over the financial edge into disaster. Plus the CHF at this moment just dipped below 87 rappen & the euro is at 1.29; SNB would be mad to raise rates - or am I missing something?

My contact at the ZKB highly recommended forward buying now the 5 year fixed rate mortgage I have as "rates look like they will go up this summer".

Certainly a 5 year fixed rate will reflect what the bank forecast up to 2016 - but like you say, a raise in CHF interest rates soon is just daft. But then the SNB bought 3.2 billion euro at 1.40...

GenevaSculler · #**1994** 29.04.2011, 10:50

	Quote:	marton
	About "I also think significant rate hikes are unlikely for quite a while" Me too, but strangely I got a call this week from my UBS "client advisor" that I should think about my variable rate LIBOR based mortgage in case of a big increase in June! WTF! I really do not see SNB increasing rates especially now the Fed & BOE seem to have turned their faces away from rises. I suppose the ECB could make another rate rise but they are treading a delicate path to avoid pushing the "dodgy" euro countries over the financial edge into disaster. Plus the CHF at this moment just dipped below 87 rappen & the euro is at 1.29; SNB would be mad to raise rates - or am I missing something?

The reason your "client advisor" is pushing you to fix is clear - UBS will make a nice profit if you fix now and rates stay low for longer... Exactly the reason why I have just transferred my mortgage to PostFinance which are offering lower rates than even the discounted UBS rate I was getting. And yes I am also staying with 100% LIBOR 3M for now.

marton · #**1995** 29.04.2011, 11:11

	Quote:	GenevaSculler
	The reason your "client advisor" is pushing you to fix is clear - UBS will make a nice profit if you fix now and rates stay low for longer... Exactly the reason why I have just transferred my mortgage to PostFinance which are offering lower rates than even the discounted UBS rate I was getting. And yes I am also staying with 100% LIBOR 3M for now.

Yes, I had a long discussion last year with Post Finance about transferring. They were offering around 2.5% for 10 year fixed, if I remember correctly.

About "My contact at the ZKB highly recommended forward buying ...."
Yes there have been newspaper articles over at least the last 18 months period quoting bankers saying "switch to fixed now, rates will go up soon...."
Oddly rates did not go up!
You know when I was young I used to respect bankers & take their pronouncements as Gospel---

#**1996** 29.04.2011, 12:42

A future rate hike of 25 bps is already priced into the currency. Uptick in inflation and overheating of the property sector are the drivers. The economy is growing, though the strong franc is impacting the rate of growth, growth is still positive. Timing of any rate hike will be driven by how the currency performs in the coming months. Obviously margins in the export sector are staying the SNB's hand.

marton · #**1997** 30.04.2011, 00:17

	Quote:	Nev
	A future rate hike of 25 bps is already priced into the currency. Uptick in inflation and overheating of the property sector are the drivers. The economy is growing, though the strong franc is impacting the rate of growth, growth is still positive. Timing of any rate hike will be driven by how the currency performs in the coming months. Obviously margins in the export sector are staying the SNB's hand.

From today's newspapers
"Europe north-south divide has worsened as figures show Spain and Greece faltering, with rising unemployment and plummeting retail sales. Meanwhile the European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing to raise interest rates on the back of a booming German economy. Despite the problems facing Spain, Greece and other troubled eurozone nations, the ECB is expected to raise interest rates, possibly as early as next week, after inflation climbed to 2.8%.
Trichet is at odds with his counterparts in the US and Britain, who have consistently argued the recovery needs to be firmly entrenched before implementing rate rises. "

ECB are certifiable!!

If it is true that "A future rate hike of 25 bps is already priced into the currency." then the smart move by SNB to reduce the CHF strength would be to hold off on the increase, or to cancel?

#**1998** 30.04.2011, 14:52

	Quote:	marton
	Yes there have been newspaper articles over at least the last 18 months period quoting bankers saying "switch to fixed now, rates will go up soon...." Oddly rates did not go up! You know when I was young I used to respect bankers & take their pronouncements as Gospel---

Similarly oddly, I turned down the offer of a fixed rate mortgage at something like 9.5% in 1987 because I thought my bank knew something I didn't.

Three or four years later I was paying 16.1%.

marton · #**1999** 01.05.2011, 22:46

	Quote:	JVC
	Similarly oddly, I turned down the offer of a fixed rate mortgage at something like 9.5% in 1987 because I thought my bank knew something I didn't. Three or four years later I was paying 16.1%.

Not in Switzerland?

Highest rate in Switzerland was in 1990 @ 10%

#**2000** 02.05.2011, 00:56

	Quote:	marton
	Not in Switzerland? Highest rate in Switzerland was in 1990 @ 10%

No that was the UK. It crippled industry and collecting money owed became a complete nightmare..

It even became some sort of status symbol in certain quarters how much you had gone bankrupt for.