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  #2001  
Old 05.05.2011, 16:31
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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From today's newspapers
"Europe north-south divide has worsened as figures show Spain and Greece faltering, with rising unemployment and plummeting retail sales. Meanwhile the European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing to raise interest rates on the back of a booming German economy. Despite the problems facing Spain, Greece and other troubled eurozone nations, the ECB is expected to raise interest rates, possibly as early as next week, after inflation climbed to 2.8%.
Trichet is at odds with his counterparts in the US and Britain, who have consistently argued the recovery needs to be firmly entrenched before implementing rate rises. "

ECB are certifiable!!

If it is true that "A future rate hike of 25 bps is already priced into the currency." then the smart move by SNB to reduce the CHF strength would be to hold off on the increase, or to cancel?
About "ECB are certifiable!!"

Seems not after all, they did not increase rates today & also hinted that they would not in June.
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  #2002  
Old 05.05.2011, 18:09
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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A future rate hike of 25 bps is already priced into the currency. Uptick in inflation and overheating of the property sector are the drivers. The economy is growing, though the strong franc is impacting the rate of growth, growth is still positive. Timing of any rate hike will be driven by how the currency performs in the coming months. Obviously margins in the export sector are staying the SNB's hand.
So far as I can find out by surfing around the SNB proposed rate increase in June depends on the CHF/euro rate not being lower than 1.35?
Anybody heard anything similar?
The rate seems to be testing 1.26 at the moment?
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  #2003  
Old 05.05.2011, 20:15
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

On the news tonight: Portugal to get a 78'000'000'000 loan from EU & IMF (I think that is correct)
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  #2004  
Old 05.05.2011, 21:06
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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On the news tonight: Portugal to get a 78'000'000'000 loan from EU & IMF (I think that is correct)
near enough, interesting question is which country next?
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  #2005  
Old 05.05.2011, 21:47
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time....#ixzz1LU63J6Py

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Mortgage Fraud: Will Wall Street finally have to pay for its misdeeds?

Wall Street may soon have to finally pay for its folly. Earlier this week, the US Attorneys office of the Department of Justice sued Deutsche Bank for allegedly tricking a government insurance program into backing mortgage loans that were much riskier than they were portrayed. Many of those loans have defaulted causing nearly $400 million in losses for the government program already, and potentially much more. The question is what other big banks were also abusing government home loan programs during the housing bubble and after.
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FHA requires lender to verify that borrowers have enough income to qualify for the loan. It appears MortgageIT, which was bought in 2006 by Deutsche, repeated failed to do that even after it was warned by FHA that it wasn't following standards, and as late as 2009, well after the financial crisis hit.
[of course they won't!]
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  #2006  
Old 13.05.2011, 11:43
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Another quality Rolling Stone article:

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They weren't murderers or anything; they had merely stolen more money than most people can rationally conceive of, from their own customers, in a few blinks of an eye. But then they went one step further. They came to Washington, took an oath before Congress, and lied about it.

Thanks to an extraordinary investigative effort by a Senate subcommittee that unilaterally decided to take up the burden the criminal justice system has repeatedly refused to shoulder, we now know exactly what Goldman Sachs executives like Lloyd Blankfein and Daniel Sparks lied about. We know exactly how they and other top Goldman executives, including David Viniar and Thomas Montag, defrauded their clients. America has been waiting for a case to bring against Wall Street. Here it is, and the evidence has been gift-wrapped and left at the doorstep of federal prosecutors, evidence that doesn't leave much doubt: Goldman Sachs should stand trial.

This system of referrals was the backbone of financial law enforcement through the early Nineties. William Black was senior deputy chief counsel at the Office of Thrift Supervision in 1991 and 1992, the last years of the S&L crisis, a disaster whose pansystemic nature was comparable to the mortgage fiasco, albeit vastly smaller. Black describes the regulatory MO back then. "Every year," he says, "you had thousands of criminal referrals, maybe 500 enforcement actions, 150 civil suits and hundreds of convictions."

But beginning in the mid-Nineties, when former Goldman co-chairman Bob Rubin served as Bill Clinton's senior economic-policy adviser, the government began moving toward a regulatory system that relied almost exclusively on voluntary compliance by the banks. Old-school criminal referrals disappeared down the chute of history along with floppy disks and scripted television entertainment. In 1995, according to an independent study, banking regulators filed 1,837 referrals. During the height of the financial crisis, between 2007 and 2010, they averaged just 72 a year.

But spiking almost all criminal referrals wasn't enough for Wall Street. In 2004, in an extraordinary sequence of regulatory rollbacks that helped pave the way for the financial crisis, the top five investment banks — Goldman, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns — persuaded the government to create a new, voluntary approach to regulation called Consolidated Supervised Entities. CSE was the soft touch to end all soft touches. Here is how the SEC's inspector general described the program's regulatory army: "The Office of CSE Inspections has only two staff in Washington and five staff in the New York regional office."

Among the bankers who helped convince the SEC to go for this ludicrous program was Hank Paulson, Goldman's CEO at the time. And in exchange for "submitting" to this new, voluntary regime of law enforcement, Goldman and other banks won the right to lend in virtually unlimited amounts, regardless of their cash reserves — a move that fueled the catastrophe of 2008, when banks like Bear and Merrill were lending out 35 dollars for every one in their vaults.
Continued here: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...0110511?page=1

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  #2007  
Old 13.05.2011, 12:17
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Another quality Rolling Stone article:



Continued here: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...0110511?page=1
Damn - you beat me to it :-/

Taibbi rulez

P.
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  #2008  
Old 14.05.2011, 20:00
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Damn - you beat me to it :-/

Taibbi rulez

P.
Indeed he does. Video of Taibbi discussing his article:

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  #2009  
Old 20.05.2011, 11:53
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

I've just finished a book that seems to be the definitive story of what actually happened in the financial crisis. An excellent read, it even contains a few snippets on what happened to UBS. Highly recommended for anyone with any interest in the financial crisis.

It's called 'The Big Short', written by Michael Lewis.

The Book Depository does free delivery worldwide, so this highly informative book can be purchased & delivered to Switzerland for a total of £5.86:

http://www.bookdepository.co.uk/Big-.../9780141043531
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  #2010  
Old 23.05.2011, 11:25
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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About "I also think significant rate hikes are unlikely for quite a while"

Me too, but strangely I got a call this week from my UBS "client advisor" that I should think about my variable rate LIBOR based mortgage in case of a big increase in June! WTF!

I really do not see SNB increasing rates especially now the Fed & BOE seem to have turned their faces away from rises.
I suppose the ECB could make another rate rise but they are treading a delicate path to avoid pushing the "dodgy" euro countries over the financial edge into disaster.

Plus the CHF at this moment just dipped below 87 rappen & the euro is at 1.29; SNB would be mad to raise rates - or am I missing something?
Well the roll-over date for setting my variable rate mortgage for the next three months is Wednesday. LIBOR is currently down 0.01% which is quite a different story than the 0.25% raise that my UBS client advisor forecast. & the euro is currently testing 1.23.
Plus their special "only for you" fixed rate offer is higher than both ZKB & Post Finance are advertising in the web so I do not see me moving away from my variable rate mortgage just yet
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  #2011  
Old 23.05.2011, 11:31
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Well the roll-over date for setting my variable rate mortgage for the next three months is Wednesday. LIBOR is currently down 0.01% which is quite a different story than the 0.25% raise that my UBS client advisor forecast. & the euro is currently testing 1.23.
Plus their special "only for you" fixed rate offer is higher than both ZKB & Post Finance are advertising in the web so I do not see me moving away from my variable rate mortgage just yet
Exactly why I have just moved my mortgage over to Post Finance from UBS and am currently happy staying on LIBOR 3M. Funnily enough my ex-client advisor at UBS had also given me a "big discount from the normal rate", but when I called to say I was moving to Post Finance he was immediately offering to "talk to his boss and see if he can beat it".
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  #2012  
Old 23.05.2011, 12:03
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Euro tumbling. Swiss inflation last month was softer than expected.

In terms of drivers of higher rates it's hard to see a driver other than the overheated property sector. I hear the governments have plans for special measures to address the acute housing shortage. Canton Vaud has told municipalities to seek higher density developments when giving construction permits - I guess more affordable apartments rather than villas. Also any owner of building ground zoned for construction which remains undeveloped might be compelled to sell the land to developer who will construct. Idea would be to stop land banks.
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  #2013  
Old 23.05.2011, 13:01
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Euro tumbling. Swiss inflation last month was softer than expected.

In terms of drivers of higher rates it's hard to see a driver other than the overheated property sector. I hear the governments have plans for special measures to address the acute housing shortage. Canton Vaud has told municipalities to seek higher density developments when giving construction permits - I guess more affordable apartments rather than villas. Also any owner of building ground zoned for construction which remains undeveloped might be compelled to sell the land to developer who will construct. Idea would be to stop land banks.
About "euro tumbling" - seems the Italian govt credit rating was cut at the weekend by S&P. So far Italy has escaped serious issues but it looks like their day is coming despite their skillful book keeping.

The Spanish election results must also drive the Spanish credit rating sooner or later - on the assumption the voters are hoping for relaxation of the current restrictions. Although contrariwise usually losses by Socialists are seen as good for the economy......

Last edited by marton; 23.05.2011 at 13:02. Reason: spelling
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  #2014  
Old 25.05.2011, 21:35
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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About "euro tumbling" - seems the Italian govt credit rating was cut at the weekend by S&P. So far Italy has escaped serious issues but it looks like their day is coming despite their skillful book keeping.

The Spanish election results must also drive the Spanish credit rating sooner or later - on the assumption the voters are hoping for relaxation of the current restrictions. Although contrariwise usually losses by Socialists are seen as good for the economy......
euro now at CHF1.22xx !!
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  #2015  
Old 13.06.2011, 21:48
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

who wants to buy euros? Not me!

Greece was downgraded close to default today, sending 10-year bond yields near to fresh euro-era highs and prompting more worries over the health of the eurozone.
Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s long-term sovereign credit rating three notches to triple C in a sign the rating agency thinks it will be forced to downgrade Athens to default as private creditors are likely to be involved in the
Greece is now the lowest-rated sovereign in the world, having fallen below Ecuador, Jamaica, Pakistan and Grenada.

& euro = 1.2 CHF
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  #2016  
Old 14.06.2011, 13:27
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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[FONT=Arial]who wants to buy euros? Not me!
Against Swiss Francs, I would not buy Euros.
However, I might not say that against the US Dollar.

If Greece gets thrown out of the Euro, I would think that the Euro would actually go up in value.
I would think that one would then think that the Euro is only for stable serious country and not going to subsidise phoney fraudulent countries in it.
Once Greece is thrown out, I would guess that Irish government pressurised by Irish protests to also say to hell with the Central European Bank and IMF and also pull out.
Then Portugal will follow.
Spain will be bust buy November and will then also opt out of the Euro (probably forced out).
Italy may well have to pull out of the Euro by mid 2012 when it is discovered that Italy is a Parmalat of governments.
This will leave the North European countries in the Euro and probably be seen as more credible and hence hold its value and certainly against the US Dollar which will totally crash in the near future.
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  #2017  
Old 14.06.2011, 16:45
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Against Swiss Francs, I would not buy Euros.
However, I might not say that against the US Dollar.

If Greece gets thrown out of the Euro, I would think that the Euro would actually go up in value.
I would think that one would then think that the Euro is only for stable serious country and not going to subsidise phoney fraudulent countries in it.
Once Greece is thrown out, I would guess that Irish government pressurised by Irish protests to also say to hell with the Central European Bank and IMF and also pull out.
Then Portugal will follow.
Spain will be bust buy November and will then also opt out of the Euro (probably forced out).
Italy may well have to pull out of the Euro by mid 2012 when it is discovered that Italy is a Parmalat of governments.
This will leave the North European countries in the Euro and probably be seen as more credible and hence hold its value and certainly against the US Dollar which will totally crash in the near future.
Withdrawl by Greece from the euro would generate huge losses for the banks in the Northern euro countries who lent most of the money to Greece, in turn this would cause a financial domino effect.
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  #2018  
Old 14.06.2011, 18:17
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Against Swiss Francs, I would not buy Euros.
However, I might not say that against the US Dollar.

If Greece gets thrown out of the Euro, I would think that the Euro would actually go up in value.
I would think that one would then think that the Euro is only for stable serious country and not going to subsidise phoney fraudulent countries in it.
Once Greece is thrown out, I would guess that Irish government pressurised by Irish protests to also say to hell with the Central European Bank and IMF and also pull out.
Then Portugal will follow.
Spain will be bust buy November and will then also opt out of the Euro (probably forced out).
Italy may well have to pull out of the Euro by mid 2012 when it is discovered that Italy is a Parmalat of governments.
This will leave the North European countries in the Euro and probably be seen as more credible and hence hold its value and certainly against the US Dollar which will totally crash in the near future.
Is this the future as foretold by Cashboy's crystal ball?

If Greece comes out of the euro, then there would be total collapse of all Greek banks, as every Greek would remove their euros to either keep under the mattress or convert to drachme if that were to be the new "old" currency, which would be worth next to nothing and they would hope to make a killing.

Were the rest of the world's banking system able to survive the repercussions of Greece pulling out, the chances of survival of their surviving Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy's departure is less than slim...
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  #2019  
Old 14.06.2011, 20:43
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Were the rest of the world's banking system able to survive the repercussions of Greece pulling out, the chances of survival of their surviving Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy's departure is less than slim...
It would be absolute chaos. Bank runs on the countries who pull out, massive depreciation of the new currencies. Who the hell would want to hold them? Exchange controls to prevent a flight of capital would be inevitable. Where would Greece, Ireland and Portugal get funding? The EU would have much bigger problem on its hands than propping up the Euro status quo and forcing the weaker economies to get their houses in order.

Last edited by Nev; 14.06.2011 at 20:54.
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  #2020  
Old 14.06.2011, 23:43
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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It would be absolute chaos. Bank runs on the countries who pull out, massive depreciation of the new currencies. Who the hell would want to hold them? Exchange controls to prevent a flight of capital would be inevitable. Where would Greece, Ireland and Portugal get funding? The EU would have much bigger problem on its hands than propping up the Euro status quo and forcing the weaker economies to get their houses in order.
I am still pretty certain that Greece will be out of the Euro; if not next month, then when the next review or payment is due, but by then Spain will be in more trouble and the EC Central bank (well Germany) will not be able to afford or want to bail anyone else out.
I still don't get how the IMF works.
Where do they get their monies from. I would gather that the EC Central bank puts/lends the money into it (basically Germany). IMF then lends it to Greece so that it can pay Germany back. Nice One!!
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