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Old 05.10.2011, 18:05
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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1. I had to go out
2. Banks & hedge funds don't publish their investments
3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional-reserve_banking
4. Don't know what you are referring to here?
5. I didn't mention the SNB
re nr 3
A) the commercial banks are NOT overseen or regulated by the National Bank but by FINMA
http://www.finma.ch/d/beaufsichtigte...default-a.aspx
and to repeat it, it is only the SNB which can print CHF banknotes.

Commercial banks of course can keep back banknotes if they for whatever reason feel like it. It is THEIR decision.

While I am fully aware of the point that in the U.K., at least in the past, the Bank of England, the Royal Bank of Scotland, the Bank of Scotland and the Clydesdale Bank did / do print UK£ banknotes, but we here speak about Switzerland
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  #2142  
Old 05.10.2011, 19:00
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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re nr 3
A) the commercial banks are NOT overseen or regulated by the National Bank but by FINMA
www.finma.ch/d/beaufsichtigte/bewilligungstraeger/Seiten/default-a.aspx
and to repeat it, it is only the SNB which can print CHF banknotes.

Commercial banks of course can keep back banknotes if they for whatever reason feel like it. It is THEIR decision.

While I am fully aware of the point that in the U.K., at least in the past, the Bank of England, the Royal Bank of Scotland, the Bank of Scotland and the Clydesdale Bank did / do print UK£ banknotes, but we here speak about Switzerland
The currently generally accepted meaning of the English phrase 'printing money' is covered extensively here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printing_money
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  #2143  
Old 05.10.2011, 20:06
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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The currently generally accepted meaning of the English phrase 'printing money' is covered extensively here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printing_money
Believe me, I DID really read it, but as finances/banking is not my forte I only partially understand it . What I however stated above remains unchanged as A) German is majority language in Switzerland, B) German is the defacto languague of the SNB and C) German is the language of the major newspapers (except LeTemps) and in German "money printing" clearly and only is the actual printing of banknotes. Your link also pointed to countries where the national banks (reserve banks, central banks, etc) control and regulate the commercial banks, something the SNB does NOT. So, as correct you may be in principle and in regard to realities elsewhere, here in CH it is different.

You of course may argue that things also in CH are subject to change. Right you are, as the fairly swift crumbling of many parts of the bank secrecy proves. But it is not that way. And add to this that also things elsewhere are subject to change. Just look at General Dufour. The cartography system of General Dufour is now in use worldwide. Some of his strategies he used here in 1847/48 have been copied by countless generals around the globe. He helped to build up the Red Cross with worldwide effects.

Do not forget that at least up to 1848, in fact partially even up to 1874, Cantonal banks printed their own currencies, even if the CHF already in 1848 became the currency of the union. So that we may see a time when the Cantonal Banks are to print CHF. The SVP may try this route in order to prevent CH from joining the € after the present crisis vanishes into history.
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  #2144  
Old 06.10.2011, 12:38
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Michael Lewis has written 2 very good books about the finance industry, Liar's Poker & recently The Big Short. This article is promoting his latest book, but does have interest as a stand-alone piece: ‘Boomerang’: Surveying the wreckage of financial disaster

Now the bankers & financiers have overloaded Governments/CBs with the results of their bad bets, who will bail them out this time if & when things like the following go wrong?

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When we met, he had just bought his first credit default swaps on the countries he and his team of analysts viewed as the most likely to be unable to pay off their debts: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Switzerland, Portugal, and Spain. He made these bets directly with the few big Wall Street firms that he felt were least likely to be allowed to fail—Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley—but, doubting their capacity to withstand a more serious crisis, he demanded that they post collateral on the trades every day. The prices he paid for default insurance, in retrospect, look absurdly cheap. Greek government default insurance cost him 11 basis points, for instance. That is, to insure $1 million of Greek government bonds against default, Hayman Capital paid a premium of $1,100 dollars a year. Bass guessed that when Greece defaulted, as it inevitably would, the country would be forced to pay down its debt by roughly 70 percent—which is to say that every $1,100 bet would return $700,000.
[surprised at the mention of Switzerland in there]

I wonder if GS, JPM & MS are still holding the wrong end of these bets? History suggests that they will have offloaded them onto some mug pension fund manager, but if not...
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  #2145  
Old 06.10.2011, 21:08
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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[surprised at the mention of Switzerland in there]
Not so surprising if you read how they selected the countries:

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But the public debt of these countries was no longer the official public debt. As a practical matter it included the debts inside each country’s banking system, which, in another crisis, would be transferred to the government. “The first thing we tried to figure out,” said Bass, “was how big these banking systems were, especially in relation to government revenues. We took about four months to gather the data. No one had it.”
Thanx for the link, BTW.
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  #2146  
Old 07.10.2011, 10:41
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

More news "Moody's decision yesterday to downgrade credit rating of 12 UK financial institutions"

Seem to be dark clouds in every direction yet brave people are still buying shares....
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  #2147  
Old 07.10.2011, 10:50
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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More news "Moody's decision yesterday to downgrade credit rating of 12 UK financial institutions"

Seem to be dark clouds in every direction yet brave people are still buying shares....
Interesting article on the BoE QE and what it might mean - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...this-time.html

And then there's these folks who are saying it might melt down in 'weeks' rather than months or years - http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011...-meltdown.html

Interesting times.
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  #2148  
Old 07.10.2011, 11:56
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Privatise the gains, nationalise the losses. The difficulty is fighting this behaviour.
it is actually trivially simple to solve the problem, once and forever. You only need to pass 2 laws..

a) banks cannot 'trade' with depositor's funds. i.e. bring back the Glass-Steagal act and separate commercial banking from investment banking and trading etc - no ifs and buts. Private capital will be free to gamble as it likes - as the old investment bank partnerships used to be.

b) taxpayer funds cannot be used to bail-out a profit making entity. EITHER an entity is 'systemically important' and therefore cannot be allowed to fail - in which case it is owned and run by the state, and may not work for profit. OR it is run for profit, and shareholders/creditors will then take their lumps in the free market like all other investors. No ifs or buts.

That will be the end of all financial crises... trouble is - it is not easy to pass these laws. Because banks/moneymen control the politicians.

But as throughout history, a crowd with pitchforks can make any amount of money irrelevant ...
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Old 10.10.2011, 13:51
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Dexia bank bailed out by governments
Este (Austrian bank) announced heavy losses today due to exposure to peripheral eurozone countries including mortgage loans.

So it starts
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Old 11.10.2011, 13:55
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Crowds and pitchforks .. the only way to stop this madness.
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  #2151  
Old 18.10.2011, 11:30
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Anybody have a clue why LIBOR CHF 3 Month rate is slowly creeping up? Since beginning of this month it rose from 0.01 to 0.04%.

Everybody seems to think the ECB will cut their rate soon which is the opposite direction.
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Old 19.10.2011, 21:08
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported a third-quarter loss of $428 million Tuesday as revenue from underwriting stocks and bonds plunged. It was only the second quarterly loss for the investment bank since it went public 12 years ago.
It appears that the smartest men in the room were the hedgies who bought Greek CDSs off Goldman at fractions of cents on the dollar.

It's pretty gobsmacking that an organisation with GS's unrivalled political influence, financial firepower and resultant insider information can somehow make a loss. They must have sold (and held) a boatload of unhedged CDSs.
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  #2153  
Old 19.10.2011, 22:30
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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It appears that the smartest men in the room were the hedgies who bought Greek CDSs off Goldman at fractions of cents on the dollar.
they would be, if it was true.

GS is - much as I hate to admit it - smarter than that. Where do you read that they lost money from selling Greek CDS's??
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Old 20.10.2011, 08:19
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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they would be, if it was true.

GS is - much as I hate to admit it - smarter than that. Where do you read that they lost money from selling Greek CDS's??
As Nev likes to point out, the IBs et al operate in secret, so it's often necessary to speculate. It looks like Kyle Bass is smarter than Goldman because he:

http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/447308.../#.Tp-6CXGGHTV
Quote:
When we met, he had just bought his first credit default swaps on the countries he and his team of analysts viewed as the most likely to be unable to pay off their debts: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Switzerland, Portugal, and Spain. He made these bets directly with the few big Wall Street firms that he felt were least likely to be allowed to fail—Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley—but, doubting their capacity to withstand a more serious crisis, he demanded that they post collateral on the trades every day. The prices he paid for default insurance, in retrospect, look absurdly cheap. Greek government default insurance cost him 11 basis points, for instance. That is, to insure $1 million of Greek government bonds against default, Hayman Capital paid a premium of $1,100 dollars a year. Bass guessed that when Greece defaulted, as it inevitably would, the country would be forced to pay down its debt by roughly 70 percent—which is to say that every $1,100 bet would return $700,000.
Apparently contributing towards leaving GS effectively net long $2,500,000,000 on European debt:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...18-708133.html
Quote:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s (GS) exposure to troubled European debt, after hedges, was $2.5 billion at the end of the third quarter, Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said Tuesday.
I wonder how you hedge Greek CDS that you've sold, without offloading them?
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Old 20.10.2011, 09:16
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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When we met, he had just bought his first credit default swaps on the countries he and his team of analysts viewed as the most likely to be unable to pay off their debts: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Switzerland, Portugal, and Spain.
Switzerland? Seriously..??


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I wonder how you hedge Greek CDS that you've sold, without offloading them?
That's simple... you call AIG
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Old 20.10.2011, 09:41
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Switzerland? Seriously..??
It surprised me too. See Mark75's post #2145 - too big a banking sector.
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  #2157  
Old 20.10.2011, 14:08
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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It appears that the smartest men in the room were the hedgies who bought Greek CDSs off Goldman at fractions of cents on the dollar.

It's pretty gobsmacking that an organisation with GS's unrivalled political influence, financial firepower and resultant insider information can somehow make a loss. They must have sold (and held) a boatload of unhedged CDSs.
It's especially alarming when you consider that in 2010, Goldman made a profit on every single trading day in the first quarter ... something which is statistically extremely unlikely and either indicates that they are mega-geniuses or have some other advantage that other players don't have.

(source: Zerohedge http://bit.ly/9o3RKa)

Therefore, when someone with their undoubted 'special ability' starts making losses, you know that the people who run the casino are losing control ... again.

Banking is literally a license to print money. Assuming you do your job right and do proper risk analysis before extending credit, it should be near impossible to make substantial losses due to your ability to leverage up a capital base many times.

The fact that the banking system managed to make such staggering losses that most of the big players had to be bailed out at massive expense to the public in 2008 (and kept on intensive financial care ever since) is an indicator that even being given the means to make yourself spectacularly rich by crunching numbers isn't enough to satisfy the greedy nature of the people running these organisations - they wanted to become obscenely rich.

Seems like the piggies didn't learn the lesson of the financial crisis - or rather, they learned that they could do anything they wanted no matter how stupid, risky and sometimes fraudulent, as someone else (the taxpayer) would pick up the tab for their mistakes and the authorities would look the other way as regards questionable activities.

I would suspect that we are now at the point where the nation states who unwisely rescued their banksters three years ago are now at the point where they cannot do it again without themselves going bust. In some cases, states have effectively gone bust thanks to socialising the banks losses - Ireland being a prime example.
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  #2158  
Old 20.10.2011, 14:45
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Therefore, when someone with their undoubted 'special ability' starts making losses, you know that the people who run the casino are losing control ... again.

Banking is literally a license to print money. Assuming you do your job right and do proper risk analysis before extending credit, it should be near impossible to make substantial losses due to your ability to leverage up a capital base many times.
a) their special ability appears to be mostly a combination of their incestuous links with (and influence over) government, and the monopoly power of the top investment banks in the US. If it really was superior skills and intelligence, then they would have been making money in the last quarter too.

b) Banking is indeed a license to print money. But much of what they did in the last 10 years was little to do with banking as you define it. The immense riches, and the downfall were mostly attributable to trading, speculation, market-making, structuring and in some cases outright fraud.

c) I'm not sure about the point you make with leverage. They need some to make money, of course. But too much is what kills most banks.
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Old 03.11.2011, 09:54
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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The answer is here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:St...doPIGSengl.PNG
Italian fiscal deficit (as fraction of GDP) is -5% which is same as Germany. Compare that with -13% for US and GR.
Hmmm, today the yield, or interest rate, on Italian ten-year bonds is up to 6.35%; 7% is bail out time!!
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Old 03.11.2011, 12:13
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Hmmm, today the yield, or interest rate, on Italian ten-year bonds is up to 6.35%; 7% is bail out time!!
Italy will be leaving the Euro and EC.
They really have nothing to loose.

The UK would be better out of the EC for sure.
If Conservative want to win the next election for sure, Cameron just needs to announce that there will be a referendum within 6 months of the election if Conservative win. 75% of the UK people would vote OUT.

As I have said before, Germany will soon come to a halt and that is when the German people will tell their government they are not going to bail out these countries that have lied and mismanaged their economies.

We are just seeing the start of the financial crisis, we have really seen nothing yet.
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