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  #221  
Old 29.09.2008, 20:27
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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more crazy market days.... ubs closing at 18.15, hypo down more than 70 percent, commerzbank -20pc, bradford and bingley....

just incredible how the cards are falling.... yes shorrick you were right... but is there a lot more to come?

several bank stocks are trading at 200+ volatility. never saw those vols before.

Whats next?
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Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks plunged and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index tumbled the most since 1987 after the House of Representatives voted down a $700 billion plan to rescue the financial system.
You tell me...
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  #222  
Old 29.09.2008, 20:31
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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more crazy market days.... ubs closing at 18.15, hypo down more than 70 percent, commerzbank -20pc, bradford and bingley....

just incredible how the cards are falling.... yes shorrick you were right... but is there a lot more to come?

several bank stocks are trading at 200+ volatility. never saw those vols before.

Whats next?
Stock markets can only react, hence the volatility. They are not leading this. What matters is what happens in the credit market. Look for signs there. It will only start to get better when banks start lending to each other. And even when they do fundamentals for bank stocks don't look good.
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  #223  
Old 29.09.2008, 20:34
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Re: How Safe is UBS

Well, perhaps towards massive deflation? Great article by Bennet Sedacca on Minyanville who predicted which banks would get in trouble, months ago.

It will be interesting to know how Switzerland (and the franc) would fair in a deflationary environment. Since so many of the wheels here turn on financing, it could be bad.

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Where is Deflation rearing its Ugly Head?
Where is deflation rearing its ugly head? Well, pretty much everywhere. Every place I turn, whether it be money supply, real estate prices, equity prices, debt prices, loan creation, commodity prices (except gold), consumer confidence, I see deflation.
When you think about it, it is not terribly difficult to understand how we got into this mess. Too much debt, notably low quality debt was created at every level; Government, consumer, corporate, etc. Then, this debt was levered up at the suggestion of the SEC and then carved up into esoteric investments that were scattered about the globe in an insidious manner.
We are simply now living through the painful unwind of debt creation, that is to say we are living through debt destruction, which is just a nasty version of deflation.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/.../index/a/19213.
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  #224  
Old 29.09.2008, 21:55
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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several bank stocks are trading at 200+ volatility. never saw those vols before.

Whats next?
Just remember right now there's no shorting. In the US that ban is due to expire Thursday, unless extended. Bad as today is for financials, it would have looked worse had there been shorts active in the market.
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  #225  
Old 29.09.2008, 22:11
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Just remember right now there's no shorting. In the US that ban is due to expire Thursday, unless extended. Bad as today is for financials, it would have looked worse had there been shorts active in the market.
there's enough real sellers out there, that you don't need 'shorting' for another few banks to go under in this climate

besides, the SEC ban only really affects individual investors like you and me (well, I dont really know about you)... the hedge funds and other professionals have dozens of ways to 'short' a stock

(and if regulators understood any of this, we really wouldn't be in this mess today, would we?)
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  #226  
Old 29.09.2008, 22:33
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Re: How Safe is UBS

I doubt that they will lift restrictions against shorting this week.

Half of the rally caused when those restrictions came into effect was caused by people who were short having to buy back their positions in the first place, scared that if they did not, they would be forced to buy in their positions at unfair prices.

Some market participants like market makers need to have short positions sometimes in order to do their job. That way, they can provide liquidity to the market, which can cause other significant problems when liquidity dries up.

Many participants with option positions take equal but opposite positions in the underlying in order to balance their portfolio, sometimes being short stock but this is rarely in order to drive the market down. In fact, to dynamically hedge long option positions, one buys the underlying as it moves down, and sells it as it moves up.

Of course, large hedge funds with massive funding to short stock for the purpose of driving it down simply to grab profits are another story.
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  #227  
Old 29.09.2008, 22:48
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Well, perhaps towards massive deflation? Great article by Bennet Sedacca on Minyanville who predicted which banks would get in trouble, months ago.

It will be interesting to know how Switzerland (and the franc) would fair in a deflationary environment. Since so many of the wheels here turn on financing, it could be bad.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/...index/a/19213.
Gulp
Well at least the Swiss build first class bomb shelters. Will shortly move into mine with my gold bars & my gin & tonic.

Marton
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  #228  
Old 29.09.2008, 22:57
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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This reminds me of the end of the dotcom boom. There was a website the chronicled the failures of startups called F**KEDCOMPANY.COM. It was a parody of a magazine called Fast Company. It may be an appropriate to revive the concept with F*KEDBANKS.COM and F*KEDCOUNTRIES.COM.

I can build the site, if anyone wants to write in it.
As I mentioned some months ago, it already exists. Just type "mortgage implode" into Google and you'll find a wealth of information about imploded mortgage companies (286 to date) + sister sites that cater for imploded banks and builders. The quality of the blogs that they quote is outstanding IMHO. They have kept me ahead of the game for the last 6 months. For instance, we've known that WaMU and Wachovia were on the ropes for at least that long. See ultrabear Nouriel Rubini's disgusted opinion of the thankfully failed bailout ("no banker left behind").
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  #229  
Old 30.09.2008, 09:02
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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the hedge funds and other professionals have dozens of ways to 'short' a stock
Well they have alternatives to hedge themselves, true, but these are more expensive and not as efficient as shorting the stock itself. Nor do they cause the same volatility in individual stocks which is what the ban was aimed at. But you're right..short sales are not what cause banks to fail but they can contribute. When a banks stock is hammered it can cause a drop in confidence which can lead to balances being withdrawn en masse which can lead to liquidity problems. This seemed to be what happened to Morgan Stanley last week.
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  #230  
Old 30.09.2008, 09:14
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Re: How Safe is UBS

Given the problems that the current banking system has, the problems with mortgages, falling house prices and general recessionary trends, can anyone point me to any source of information (links) that predict (albeit badly) future trends in interest rates.

As a homeowner both in the UK (Rental income pays the mortgage), and here, I'd like to know what the future prospects are for interest rates in the UK. In general, it seems that the banks must keep them low to inject liquidity into the money markets, but if they rise in 1-N years, I'd like to have some background information (=warning) about trends etc as it will have a serious impact on my own financial situation.

TIA (and apologies if this has been discussed before, I did not search on the forum for information as there is just too much to wade through
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  #231  
Old 30.09.2008, 09:18
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Given the problems that the current banking system has, the problems with mortgages, falling house prices and general recessionary trends, can anyone point me to any source of information (links) that predict (albeit badly) future trends in interest rates.

As a homeowner both in the UK (Rental income pays the mortgage), and here, I'd like to know what the future prospects are for interest rates in the UK. In general, it seems that the banks must keep them low to inject liquidity into the money markets, but if they rise in 1-N years, I'd like to have some background information (=warning) about trends etc as it will have a serious impact on my own financial situation.

TIA (and apologies if this has been discussed before, I did not search on the forum for information as there is just too much to wade through
An 'expert' on radio 4's Today programme said this morning that he thought interest rates in the UK would be 1.5% lower by the end of next year...
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  #232  
Old 30.09.2008, 09:42
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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An 'expert' on radio 4's Today programme said this morning that he thought interest rates in the UK would be 1.5% lower by the end of next year...
Thanks. I was listening this morning, but missed that bit (I do wish I could keep listening in the car as I drive to work...but I haven't cracked that!). I'll keep looking for more authoritive sources of info ...
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  #233  
Old 30.09.2008, 10:34
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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An 'expert' on radio 4's Today programme said this morning that he thought interest rates in the UK would be 1.5% lower by the end of next year...
The difficult question is what will be the relationship between mortgage interest rates & bank interest rates in the future.
Many mortgage rates are linked to the interbank Libor borrowing rate. But banks & others are borrowing from other sources to fill the gaps in their balance sheets and are believed to be paying double Libor rates or more.
Borrowing at say 10% & lending at 5% can not go on for long.....

Marton
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  #234  
Old 30.09.2008, 11:40
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Re: How Safe is UBS

Reuters report on more UBS planned writedowns:

http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...080929?sp=true
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  #235  
Old 30.09.2008, 17:00
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Reuters report on more UBS planned writedowns:

http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...080929?sp=true
I absolutely don't understand this bit : "We should not forget to look at the liabilities side. The CDS (credit default swaps) spreads on UBS's own bonds have been widening and this should have a positive effect for them. We should get some relief in line with what we have seen in other quarters." said Zuercher Kantonalbank analyst Andreas Venditti." I thought wider CDS spreads were bad news and a reflection of a lack of confidence. How can UBS benefit?
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  #236  
Old 30.09.2008, 20:15
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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I absolutely don't understand this bit : "We should not forget to look at the liabilities side. The CDS (credit default swaps) spreads on UBS's own bonds have been widening and this should have a positive effect for them. We should get some relief in line with what we have seen in other quarters." said Zuercher Kantonalbank analyst Andreas Venditti." I thought wider CDS spreads were bad news and a reflection of a lack of confidence. How can UBS benefit?
Must admit when I read this I shared the same thoughts; so I went down to the Kantonal bank & bought some more of those convenient pocket size 100gr gold bars.

Marton
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  #237  
Old 30.09.2008, 20:41
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Re: How Safe is UBS

Anybody with a few CHF to spare should invest now ... we are all paying for the last years of excessess (which at least I did not profit from), so I'm not going to miss out on the next! Solar energy ... health ... basic consumer goods ... any ideas anyone?
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  #238  
Old 30.09.2008, 20:48
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Re: How Safe is UBS

UBS is the most capitalized bank in Europe. So, in that respect UBS is quite safe.

But, if you really want a safe bank, try the Kantonalbanks.
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  #239  
Old 30.09.2008, 20:52
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The quality of the blogs that they quote is outstanding IMHO. They have kept me ahead of the game for the last 6 months.
All I can say is my economists didn’t see this coming and neither did my risk managers. I can't vouch for the blogs but since I turned to scripture for direction at the end of August I too have stayed ahead of the game and have positioned myself accordingly:
Matthew 24:21 "For then there will be a great tribulation, such as has not occurred since the beginning of the world....”

Right now I'm positioning myself for a Paulson bailout:
Revelation 18:1] “And after these things I saw another angel come down from heaven, having great power; and the earth was lightened with his glory.”
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  #240  
Old 30.09.2008, 21:25
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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All I can say is my economists didn’t see this coming and neither did my risk managers. I can't vouch for the blogs but since I turned to scripture for direction at the end of August I too have stayed ahead of the game and have positioned myself accordingly:
Matthew 24:21 "For then there will be a great tribulation, such as has not occurred since the beginning of the world....”

Right now I'm positioning myself for a Paulson bailout:
Revelation 18:1] “And after these things I saw another angel come down from heaven, having great power; and the earth was lightened with his glory.”

Seriously check out the Austrian school of economics. Ron Paul predicted this housing crisis in 2003 and Peter Schiff also predicted it. Both are followers of the Austrian school. See below for videos of Peter Schiff predicting problems while being laughed at and derided by others. He is having the last laugh.

August 28, 2006 - Arthur Laffer (of Laffer curve fame) scoffs at Schiff's insistence that problems were brewing.




December 16, 2006 - A whole panel of "experts" laughs at Schiff when he tells them that the housing market is inflated and going to be a problem.

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