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  #261  
Old 03.10.2008, 06:46
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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I know that both the Euro and Franc are at highs vs Stg/dollar and are more likely to fall than rise but I'd still prefer to hold either as opposed to Sterling because I think we're about to see that currency crash badly. After it falls I'd be happy to shift to Sterling as that's where I intend to spend my savings (on a house).

The trick as ever will be timing.
At least that house you want is getting cheaper!
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  #262  
Old 03.10.2008, 06:48
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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...but it doesn't mean that an Irish bank won't fail although the guarantee will help them recapitalise.
Northern Rock eh? Earlier this year they were queuing to get out. Now they're queuing to get in.
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  #263  
Old 03.10.2008, 07:45
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Northern Rock eh? Earlier this year they were queuing to get out. Now they're queuing to get in.
Great, innit?

And the Post office savings accounts are run by an Irish bank... how did that happen then?
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  #264  
Old 03.10.2008, 08:14
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Re: How Safe is UBS

I spoke to my adviser at the ZKB yesterday. He said they were very busy opening new accounts as retail customers were transferring funds to them...
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  #265  
Old 03.10.2008, 09:25
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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At least that house you want is getting cheaper!
It certainly is.

As an example, the house I'm renting has gone down about a third in market value over the last year and a half. I expect it to end up around 50% off of the peak value of Spring 2007. If I had bought something like it back then I'd have had to take a mortgage on top of my savings with a monthly repayment about 50% more than my rent. Shows you how crazy prices in Northern Ireland had got.....

Basically, by the end of next year I should be in a position to buy a decent place (better than what I'm renting, in fact) outright. Assuming the recession/depression doesn't cost me my job of course.

The key thing for me now is wealth preservation so that I still have a decent amount of savings by the time houses hit bottom in a couple of years. Sterling savings are with Northern Rock (100% govt guaranteed) and NS&I. My Swiss Francs are still with UBS and CS but are about to be moved to a HSBC account in the UK. I've also got some gold.


But the thing is that a UBS or CS bust would probably lead to a massive Swiss Franc devaluation anyway. Again, I have to say it's quite amazing that we are even discussing the possibility which was unthinkable even 12 months ago.

Last edited by Gav; 03.10.2008 at 09:30. Reason: typos
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  #266  
Old 03.10.2008, 09:28
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Re: How Safe is UBS

UBS just announced 2000 job losses - mainly in the UK & USA...
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  #267  
Old 03.10.2008, 09:33
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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UBS just announced 2000 job losses - mainly in the UK & USA...
They're in the IB aren't they .. seems to be what the BBC report is saying:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7649868.stm


Still have mates working in the 'good' side of the bank.
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  #268  
Old 03.10.2008, 09:34
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Many believed that the Swiss government would also save Swissair.

They didn't.

Caveat emptor.
They did - pumping up 3 bln/mld CHF into - all was lost 3 years later - now there is investigation going on .. there was no second try - that's it.

UBS - don't think there is much risk - for last 3 years investment banking made all decissions - now they are gone - UBS get's back to it's roots - no PainWebber business .
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  #269  
Old 03.10.2008, 09:38
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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I spoke to my adviser at the ZKB yesterday. He said they were very busy opening new accounts as retail customers were transferring funds to them...

what's the story ? busy opening accounts ? must be somewhere else but not Switzerland . openning account takes 5min per person .
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  #270  
Old 03.10.2008, 09:47
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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what's the story ? busy opening accounts ? must be somewhere else but not Switzerland . openning account takes 5min per person .
So they can only open 96 accounts per person working non-stop 8 hours a day.

When I opened an account in person I was with the manager for half an hour.

I dare say there is further internal work to be done that doesn't involve the customer when an account is opened.

This is the ZBK in Bahnhofstrasse Zurich...
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  #271  
Old 03.10.2008, 09:50
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Re: How Safe is UBS

UBS today cut 2000 jobs and closed down commodities


http://ukpress.google.com/article/AL...IxCWcojZMfV3mw
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  #272  
Old 03.10.2008, 10:02
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Great, innit?

And the Post office savings accounts are run by an Irish bank... how did that happen then?
I believe the Post Office sold off it's savings bank around 15 years ago. About five years ago it decided to get back into the business. To do this they did a JV with Bank of Ireland. To take deposits they needed a deposit-taking licence and ATMs, banking infrastructure etc. Why Bank of Ireland? No idea. My guess is they shopped around and Bank of Ireland, through it's UK subsidiary offered the best deal.
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  #273  
Old 03.10.2008, 10:08
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Re: How Safe is UBS

My guess is these jobs cuts aren't the last and more is to come. They say they will be building around equities. Outlook for equity markets aren't good and will get increasingly cut throat as banks deleverage and are forced to pursue client based revenues rather than risk generated revenues. Client business is not high margin.
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  #274  
Old 03.10.2008, 13:27
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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...
But the thing is that a UBS or CS bust would probably lead to a massive Swiss Franc devaluation anyway. ....
Really? Despite the financial calamities and deficits in the US, the US$ is gaining value. Why would insolvency of some Swiss banks devalue the currency?
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  #275  
Old 03.10.2008, 14:00
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Re: How Safe is UBS

The truth about the Irish banking guarantee:

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/b...-200810021296/

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LEPRECHAUNS ARE STEALING OUR GOLD, CLAIMS DARLING
CHANCELLOR Alistair Darling last night warned UK banks could collapse after a series of daring raids by hordes of 'little people'.
..
Darling said: "They're about four inches high and are dressed in a fine tunic and breeks, a pair of shiny boots and a tall hat."They carry a little purse filled with magic dust and can make themselves invisible, which is of course illegal under European competition rules."
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  #276  
Old 03.10.2008, 14:08
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Really? Despite the financial calamities and deficits in the US, the US$ is gaining value. Why would insolvency of some Swiss banks devalue the currency?
The dollar appreciation has been surprising and might seem counter intuitive but it isn’t justified by economic fundamentals. There a number of reasons for the appreciation...although it is in trouble the US economy is till a massive economy. People believe the US won’t go bust. People see the US as a safe haven because of it’s size. We are seeing a "flight to quality" and US Treasuries are seen as the vehicle to get your money into that safe haven, hence the stampede to buy Treasuries - just look at the yield collapse as prices got bid up. The fact that the Fed might cut interest rates which would normally weaken the dollar isn't seen as the priority right now. As as been said, people aren't focussing on return on capital but return of capital. To buy Treasuries you have to have buy the US dollar. Other safe assets like gold are also priced in dollars. Underpinning this is a belief that the Paulson package will get passed and the US banking system won’t melt down. I suspect there's been central bank interventions to support the dollar as well!
Whilst this gives the USD strength, the realisation that the credit storm was growing in other parts of the world, especially Europe, put weakening pressure on those currencies especially the Euro and GBP. The market is also pricing in interest rate cuts in these countries which are seen as all but inevitable. The US economic outlook might look weak, but so does the European outlook and FX rates are always about relative relationships.
Switzerland is a small country with a small economy. It’s safe haven rests not on its size but it’s stability and low inflation. The assets of two big Swiss banks account for six times Switzerland’s GDP. If the Swiss banking system collapsed there would be a rush to get out, not in, which would put enormous pressure on the Franc. I'm not an FX expert but that's how I see it. Maybe someone else can add some other perspective.

Last edited by Nev; 03.10.2008 at 14:23.
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  #277  
Old 03.10.2008, 14:22
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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......UBS - don't think there is much risk - for last 3 years investment banking made all decissions - now they are gone - UBS get's back to it's roots .....
I agree it is good to see UBS move back to concentrating on its core business.
Only question is how will the core business generate good enough returns to fund the 9% capital injection loans from the sovereign wealth funds? Or will they simply rely on paying ever lower interest rates to everybody else?

Marton
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  #278  
Old 03.10.2008, 14:55
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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I agree it is good to see UBS move back to concentrating on its core business.
Only question is how will the core business generate good enough returns to fund the 9% capital injection loans from the sovereign wealth funds? Or will they simply rely on paying ever lower interest rates to everybody else?

Marton
I think UBS is doing all the right stuff. They were stupid but not slow off the mark to write down aggressively, recapitalise and refocus the investment bank. You raise a good point about future revenue but first things first. They're not out of the woods but they've come a long way down the path. Lots of uphill work to rebuild customer confidence and find alternative sources of income to the investment banking revenues which have gone for ever. Their challenge is both relative and absolute...they have to re-establish confidence so they stop losing business to competitors. Then there's the problem that the overall revenue pie for the financial sector will be a lot smaller going forward. Having said all that I wouldn't be a buyer of the stock. Even if the Paulson package is passed, financials are in for a rocky ride. I still don't think UBS has the right guy at the top.
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  #279  
Old 03.10.2008, 17:14
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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The truth about the Irish banking guarantee:

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/b...-200810021296/



But on a serious note, today's announcement from the UK is Personal savings: Government to guarantee deposits up to £50,000
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  #280  
Old 03.10.2008, 17:21
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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But on a serious note, today's announcement from the UK is Personal savings: Government to guarantee deposits up to £50,000
Makes you wonder what the Brits know that the Irish don't!
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