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  #321  
Old 06.10.2008, 21:33
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Re: How Safe is UBS

well, typing iceland into google and hitting the news tab is one solution....

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...marketturmoil4

their currency is slumping and they are battling to rescue their financial system. Edit: Isnt everybody???
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  #322  
Old 06.10.2008, 22:23
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Meanwhile it appears Iceland is on the verge of bankruptcy. Europe is a farce.

Could you please explain this statement?
With a population smaller than Zurich, Iceland is very small and doesn’t produce much. It has huge external debt and it relies heavily on imports. But despite its size, it has its own currency which has collapsed 30% against the $ which means servicing the debt and imports are much more expensive. This inflationary impact (now in double digits) means the kroner buys less as time goes on. This includes foreign currencies to pay your debts so in kroner terms the cost of servicing foreign loans goes up and up. The Icelandic economy is debt laden and credit lines to its banks are now cut. When a country starts leaning on banks and companies with overseas assets denominated in foreign currencies to sell those assets and buy kroner to bring home to defend the currency then things are pretty dire and the government doesn’t have enough in the kitty to defend its currency. For precedents see Latin America. But here is what Iceland’s prime minister said "The danger is for real, dear citizens. Icelandic society could be swallowed by the tides along with the banks. It could result in national bankruptcy," Mr Haarde said. I remember the Korean economic crisis when the country threw itself on the mercy of the IMF. There were stories of patriotic Koreans pulling the gold out of their teeth to save the country
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  #323  
Old 06.10.2008, 22:41
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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UBS had its profits taxed proportionately at all its international locations. Future dividends will flow untaxed to Singapore and mysterious Arab investors.
Is that statement based on your analysis of past UBS P&L statements, accounting statements and other such documents - or merely hearsay?

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What bothers me is the US tendency to give profits to the capitalists and socialize the losses. That is so unfair. Then better to be a customer of the nationalized PostFin or Cantonal Banks. At least the profits in good times to pay for the losses in bad times.
Yeah right. Sure. Like in Switzerland we didn't do that fifteen years ago.
Broken record? You sure seem to push your ZKB more than the average employee does.
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  #324  
Old 06.10.2008, 22:48
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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What bothers me is the US tendency to give profits to the capitalists and socialize the losses. That is so unfair. Then better to be a customer of the nationalized PostFin or Cantonal Banks. At least the profits in good times to pay for the losses in bad times.
You're right to deposit your money and allocate your custom according to your conscience. But how come you think that the US has a tendancy to socialise losses? I don't think that the shareholders of Bear Stearns (sold for $2 per share), Lehman Brothers (bust) , AIG ( preferred loan backed the entire assets of the company), Wachovia and WaMu (private sector rescues) or any other financial institution in the US would agree that losses have been socialised....at least not yet. Neither would the shareholders of UBS come to that nor the shareholders of Bradford and Bingley and Northern Rock (who is ahead of its repayment schedules on its government loan).
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  #325  
Old 06.10.2008, 22:58
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Meanwhile it appears Iceland is on the verge of bankruptcy. Europe is a farce.
From today's evening standard
"Trading in the shares of all Iceland's banks and financial institutions was suspended on the Nordic Exchange today ahead of a long-awaited bailout plan from the government.
The Icelandic krona fell 7% to a record low of 174 against the euro."

Marton
p.s. not much chance of the Government saving the banks, the banks assets are roughly 10 times what the Government owns.
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  #326  
Old 06.10.2008, 23:10
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Re: How Safe is UBS

And from the US today positives & negatives;

"Bank of America reported a steep decline in earnings today that fell far short of analysts expectations. Net income fell to $1.18 billion, far worse than Wall Street's consensus forecasts of a net profit of $3.22 billion
The banking giant also slashed its dividend in half and revealed plans to raise $10 billion through a stock sale.
Shares, which fell 6.5% during regular trading Monday, tumbled an additional 7% after the closing bell."

&

"Bank of America will cut monthly housing payments, including mortgage, property taxes and insurance, to no more than 34% of gross income. The move is expected to help keep as many as 400,000 troubled borrowers in their homes."

Marton
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  #327  
Old 06.10.2008, 23:45
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Re: How Safe is UBS

Last Thursday we had a meeting with our agent (banker?) from UBS. He came to see us along with two lawyers from the bank. We talked for a couple of hours about different issues and of course, I brought up my concern about the state of UBS. They assured me that everything was OK and that the financial crisis was behind them.

Then of Friday, UBS laid off another 2,000 employees. I really don't know what to believe.

We are in the middle of selling our business in the US - good timing, I know! CHF is going up while the dollar is falling, it feels like the whole world is conspiring against us.

Thank you everyone for all the useful info. Poor Iceland! My Goodness!
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  #328  
Old 07.10.2008, 07:32
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Then of Friday, UBS laid off another 2,000 employees. I really don't know what to believe.

We are in the middle of selling our business in the US - good timing, I know! CHF is going up while the dollar is falling, it feels like the whole world is conspiring against us.
Bit of a stretch to claim their troubles are behind them but the 2000 lay offs were in the investment bank as part of UBS's efforts to refocus away from risky trading businesses and prioritise it's more stable customer areas like banking and wealth management .

Re the dollar/swissie, the trend's your friend surely:
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/co...CHF&amt=1&t=3m

What's more interesting is that UBS's bankers are meeting clients with lawyers in tow! Were they taking notes?
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  #329  
Old 07.10.2008, 08:20
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Last Thursday we had a meeting with our agent (banker?) from UBS. He came to see us along with two lawyers from the bank. We talked for a couple of hours about different issues and of course, I brought up my concern about the state of UBS. They assured me that everything was OK and that the financial crisis was behind them.
I can't see how they could have said much else, really.

a) they don't want to spread misery/gloom
b) they hope to talk up the situation
c) they have no idea anyway - nobody does it seems...
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  #330  
Old 07.10.2008, 08:44
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Broken record? You sure seem to push your ZKB more than the average employee does.
I am neither a ZKB employee nor a ZKB contractor. I do not receive anything from the ZKB. I am not anybody's employee.

I have already declared my vested interest. I am a resident in ZH and I like the idea that ZKB profits are going to the communes here and financing our infrastructure. Any other top rated Cantonal Bank is just as good. And PostFin is great, too.
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  #331  
Old 07.10.2008, 09:02
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Re: How Safe is UBS

I went to ZKB and the teeny girls behind the counter were kind of clueless and snobby! Their card arrived two weeks ago but the pin number to use that card never turned up. I really like banking with UBS and hope they ride out the storm. Going to ZKB feels like going to the local village market.
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  #332  
Old 07.10.2008, 09:08
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Re: How Safe is UBS

Saw this in the Daily Mail on Friday and couldn't resist posting on this thread:

The Gods of the Copybook Headings, 1919
Rudyard Kipling


As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all

We were living in trees when they met us.
They showed us each in turn
That water would certainly wet us, as fire would certainly burn;
But we found them lacking in uplift, vision and breadth of mind,
So we left them to teach the gorillas
while we followed the march of mankind.

We moved as the spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place;
But they always caught up with our progress and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off it's ice field, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

With the hopes that our world is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was stilton, they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that wishes were horses; they denied that pigs had wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Place who promised these beautiful things.

When the Cambrian measures were forming, they promised perpetual peace,
They swore if we gave up our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed they sold us and delivered us bound to our foe
and the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "Stick to the devil you know".

On the first Feminian Sandstone we were promised the fuller life
(Which started by loving your neighbour and ended by loving his wife).
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the God of the Copybook Headings said: "The wages of sin is death":

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all
By robbing selected Peter
to pay for collective Paul;
But though we had plenty of money, there was nothing we could buy
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said :" ifyou don't work you die'

Then the Gods of the Marked tumbled,
and their smooth tongued wizards withdrew,
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe
it was true
That all is not gold that glitters, and two and two make four -
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man -
There are four things certain since social progress began:
That the dog returns to his vomit and the sow returns to her mire
And the burnt fool's bandaged finger goes wobbling back to the fire;

And after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for exisiting and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as water will wet us, as surely as fire will burn
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter will return.
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  #333  
Old 07.10.2008, 09:14
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Re: How Safe is UBS

Oct- 7th The Swiss government says it will act to help stabilise the country's financial system in the wake of the global financial crisis.

What does the above mean in English?
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  #334  
Old 07.10.2008, 09:32
Nev
 
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Re: How Safe is UBS

They recognise that there is a problem but for the moment won't take any new initiatives. They want us to believe there is a contingency plan to protect customer deposits if it comes to that but they're not going to tell us what that plan is or how they will afford it. They're trying to talk up confidence in the system, that's all. To say that the Government will do “whatever is necessary to ensure stability of the financial system” is just noise, similar to the noise we heard from Alastair Darling in the UK yesterday. It won't make any difference to confidence unless they say exactly how they will intervene and convince people that is the right way to act, on the right scale.

Last edited by Nev; 07.10.2008 at 09:42.
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  #335  
Old 07.10.2008, 12:47
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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From today's evening standard
"Trading in the shares of all Iceland's banks and financial institutions was suspended on the Nordic Exchange today ahead of a long-awaited bailout plan from the government. The Icelandic krona fell 7% to a record low of 174 against the euro." Marton.
Times today
"British savers have been blocked from withdrawing funds from Icesave, the internet savings bank that is owned by Landsbanki, after Iceland’s financial regulator took control of the country's second largest bank."

But it is OK the Russians are coming, maybe?

"The Icelandic central bank said that Russia had agreed to provide Iceland with a €4 billion (£3.1 billion) loan to strengthen foreign reserves and support the Icelandic crown, which fell by 35 per cent on Monday.
Russia said, however, that no decision on the loan had been made."

Marton
I suppose the next move will be for the Chinese to rescue a country?
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  #336  
Old 07.10.2008, 12:51
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Re: How Safe is UBS

Icesave - the Icelandic online bank with some 150,000 customers in the UK has frozen deposits this morning as it being nationalised.

On the UK Stock Market: RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland) shares were down as much as 40% this morning and Barclays down 15%...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/...ch/default.stm
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  #337  
Old 07.10.2008, 12:55
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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They recognise that there is a problem but for the moment won't take any new initiatives.
Quite,
they did not quote much of the interview with Widmer-Schlumpf; if I understood correctly with my poor German she identified areas for action as the CHF 30K guarantee & protecting pillar 3 deposits.
Of course that is very different from actually doing anything.

Marton
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  #338  
Old 07.10.2008, 13:05
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Quite,
they did not quote much of the interview with Widmer-Schlumpf; if I understood correctly with my poor German she identified areas for action as the CHF 30K guarantee & protecting pillar 3 deposits.
Of course that is very different from actually doing anything.

Marton
Governments are damned if they and damned if they don't. By 'being in discussions' with the UK government, Barclalys have had to issue a denial and their shares fell 15%.

If a government does nothing other than make sweat noises, then we are supposed to assume they are on the case and nothing needs doing. If they publish a plan, we assume it is because the banks are about to crash...
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  #339  
Old 07.10.2008, 13:06
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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........... Each time a bank/broker/fund defaults, the debtholders will turn to the person who sold them the CDS to make them whole, and realize that there is no money in that pot to make good their losses. .......
So far so good
"The default of up to $500bn in derivative contracts linked to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was settled on Monday, the biggest such exercise ever carried out."

&

"The next test will be the unwinding of CDS linked to Lehman, which filed for bankruptcy three weeks ago. Michael Hampden-Turner, a credit strategist at Citi, estimates that there could be $400bn of credit derivatives referenced to Lehman. These contracts will be settled on Friday."

Wonder how much is left in the pot?

Marton
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  #340  
Old 07.10.2008, 14:31
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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What's more interesting is that UBS's bankers are meeting clients with lawyers in tow! Were they taking notes?
The lawyers were there because UBS offers free legal services to some customers and because we are here under the lump sum taxation agreement they can help us with the paperwork for free - as oppose to the fortune we already paid our lawyer.

Last edited by Lynn88; 07.10.2008 at 14:31. Reason: Found the answer
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