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  #421  
Old 14.10.2008, 12:02
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00. With Enron, you would have $16.50 left of the original $1000. With WorldCom, you would have less than $5.00 left. If you had purchased $1000.00 of Delta Air Lines stock you would have $49.00 left. If you had purchased United Airlines, you would have nothing left. But, if you had purchased $1000.00 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, and then turned in the cans for recycling, you would have $214.00. Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle. This is called the 401-Keg Plan.
Daniel, Calgary, Canada

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7663475.stm
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  #422  
Old 14.10.2008, 12:54
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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3) "Brown/Darling go crazy thowards Iceland and Icesave" is irrelevant - Kaupthing would have gone broke all the same.
I do disagree to that.
In the beginning of the crises when it was clear that Glitnir had problem, all the 3 biggest bankes asked for the government support.
It was decided to help Kaupthing since it was Iceland's biggest firm, and the AHV had a lot of money there...
Kaupthing also got help from Norway.
Before Brown frooze the possesions, it looked better for Kaupthing than the other banks and it was thought Kaupthing would survieve this.
I do beleve that Brown's action caused serious damage to Kaupthing and to us. That is also opinion of many layers... Kaupthing is allready prepairing law sue...
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  #423  
Old 14.10.2008, 13:06
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

I glanced at the title change, read it as "... How Safe was UBS?]"m and promptly sh4t meself...
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  #424  
Old 14.10.2008, 18:19
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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I do disagree to that.
In the beginning of the crises when it was clear that Glitnir had problem, all the 3 biggest bankes asked for the government support.
It was decided to help Kaupthing since it was Iceland's biggest firm, and the AHV had a lot of money there...
Kaupthing also got help from Norway.
Before Brown frooze the possesions, it looked better for Kaupthing than the other banks and it was thought Kaupthing would survieve this.
I do beleve that Brown's action caused serious damage to Kaupthing and to us. That is also opinion of many layers... Kaupthing is allready prepairing law sue...
Begga - the problem really is that these banks' activities translated into HUGE exposure for the central bank. Absolutely massive scale. Remember that besides the man in the street giving them money through his deposits, and AHV too, Kaupthing had lines of credit (=their debit) with which it went on a shopping spree across all of Europe.

It's like an inverted pyramid, if you wish. A very small tip (the real asset base) on top of which the bulk of the pyramid has been built with assets acquired through massive indebtness. As you can easily imagine, an inverted pyramid is extremely unstable and susceptible to topple at the slightest external shock. If you really want to blame someone, you should ultimately blame the bank's board for their extremely aggressive expansion strategies...
(besides blaming Mr. Central Banker, of course).

Still - you have all my sympathy for what has happened. Chin up ...

Paul
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  #425  
Old 14.10.2008, 19:03
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Re: How Safe is UBS

[QUOTE=Uncle GroOve;329546]Unfortunately for them, CS (or I should specify CSAM) were *very active* in placing Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) all around. According to what they were saying at one-to-one meetings at the time, most of the CDO issues were place internally in managed portfolios. Apparently, acct execs were "clamoring" for the stuff and so if we (i.e. my ex bank) had any interest in the stuff we would have had to expect to receive only a fraction of our overall interest.
Where is that paper today? Still in the clients' portfolios ? Did they just buy it back from clients even maybe even only 6-8 weeks ago and are now carrying it (at a LOSS) on their books? CS might yet be that bank that cripples Switzerland...who knows... :-/

Any one have more news on this or CS in general, I keep being told by them all is ok! My money is here and not sure what to do.
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  #426  
Old 14.10.2008, 19:27
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00. With Enron, you would have $16.50 left of the original $1000. With WorldCom, you would have less than $5.00 left. If you had purchased $1000.00 of Delta Air Lines stock you would have $49.00 left. If you had purchased United Airlines, you would have nothing left. But, if you had purchased $1000.00 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, and then turned in the cans for recycling, you would have $214.00. Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle. This is called the 401-Keg Plan.
Daniel, Calgary, Canada

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7663475.stm
You also "gain" several kilos with the beer investment.
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  #427  
Old 15.10.2008, 10:12
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Re: How Safe is UBS

[quote=Thalwiler;331091]
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Unfortunately for them, CS (or I should specify CSAM) were *very active* in placing Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) all around. According to what they were saying at one-to-one meetings at the time, most of the CDO issues were place internally in managed portfolios. Apparently, acct execs were "clamoring" for the stuff and so if we (i.e. my ex bank) had any interest in the stuff we would have had to expect to receive only a fraction of our overall interest.
Where is that paper today? Still in the clients' portfolios ? Did they just buy it back from clients even maybe even only 6-8 weeks ago and are now carrying it (at a LOSS) on their books? CS might yet be that bank that cripples Switzerland...who knows... :-/

Any one have more news on this or CS in general, I keep being told by them all is ok! My money is here and not sure what to do.
Of course they will need to say that everything is OK. They would not like to look like idiots re. the CDO placements, now that the whole market considers the stuff to be as toxic as radioactive dung :-/

And I do pray that their whole selling back then was nothing more than posturing - i.e. that they were in fact incapable of placing these products with their clients. A colleague at another investment firm believes however that given their clout and reach they did ultimately load themselves and their clients with that kind of stuff.

Scepticism pays, these days.
IMHO + YMMV, as usual

Paul
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  #428  
Old 15.10.2008, 10:23
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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A colleague at another investment firm believes however that given their clout and reach they did ultimately load themselves and their clients with that kind of stuff.
None of the managed CS portfolios I've seen so far were invested in CDOs or MBS, nor were such instruments included in the standard grille for discretionary mandates.

I can't comment on the non-managed part of the business.
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  #429  
Old 15.10.2008, 10:25
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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None of the managed CS portfolios I've seen so far were invested in CDOs or MBS, nor were such instruments included in the standard grille for discretionary mandates.

I can't comment on the non-managed part of the business.
Thank you for the qualified input.

Paul
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  #430  
Old 15.10.2008, 11:40
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

CS Inst. Money Market Fund Prime Portfolio?

(last year it had about 7% exposure to cdos, holding subprime debt - assume this will not be to zero now)

Last edited by alessandra_; 15.10.2008 at 11:52.
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  #431  
Old 15.10.2008, 12:23
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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CS Inst. Money Market Fund Prime Portfolio?

(last year it had about 7% exposure to cdos, holding subprime debt - assume this will not be to zero now)
Is that a question? In which case http://us.csam.com/inst/mutual/mm/ has all the answers you need...
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  #432  
Old 15.10.2008, 12:41
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

No, this was not a question
But thanks anyway.
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  #433  
Old 15.10.2008, 13:02
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

A question on how governments are taking over banks: Are they buying the banks through the stock market? Are they only taking over banks that are asking for help? Or are they practically confiscating banks?
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  #434  
Old 15.10.2008, 13:31
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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Begga - unfortunately the Iceland conundrum was well known. Last may, William Buiter, a well known economist who also teaches at the London School of Economics, was indicating Iceland as an example of a central bank that would go bust (I will leave the technicalities aside). That's 5 months before the facts, and I don't think he just woke up to the idea the very day he wrote his piece (I will have to look for a link for it - it's called "Can Central Banks go Broke?"). Which means that the issue w/ the "Icebanks" and the ISK, etc was indeed well known beforehand.

But this begs another question: since so many economists and specialists who are close to the ear of those-in-power *knew* that this was a very clear danger, why wasn't anything done beforehand? Why did they allow the problem to escalate to the point where the clean-up could possibly be more expensive than a preventive solution?... :-/

Paul
Truly unbelievable...
Exactly this story was a headline today in the Icelandic press...
The new tells that this report was presented to the Central Bank, the Government, the private businesses and the University.
The public didn't have a clue about it, and it said it was for our protection to keep things calm on the market...
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  #435  
Old 15.10.2008, 13:47
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Hello,

A question to experts. I ’ve read that analysts says Hungary is in a similar situation like Iceland. Do you think it is an exaggeration or true? I am not an expert. Is it possible that the same could happen in Hungary than in Iceland? It is sure that on Friday the HUF fallen quite big, but until today it was getting stronger again to a „normal” level. But today again falling. I guess Hungary is a risky country and these times investors sells hungarian papers and changing thier huf to eur/usd/chf whatever, which certainly make huf weaker. And I’ve also read that nobody buys the state bonds(however the base interest rate in Hungary 8.5%) and some banks stopped to give loans in CHF/USD.

So if there anybody out there who has knowledge on these things and have the time and will to write it down here it would be highly appreciated. It would be nice to see how the western investors see the situation of my home country.
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  #436  
Old 15.10.2008, 14:01
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Hello,

A question to experts. I ’ve read that analysts says Hungary is in a similar situation like Iceland. Do you think it is an exaggeration or true? I am not an expert. Is it possible that the same could happen in Hungary than in Iceland? It is sure that on Friday the HUF fallen quite big, but until today it was getting stronger again to a „normal” level. But today again falling. I guess Hungary is a risky country and these times investors sells hungarian papers and changing thier huf to eur/usd/chf whatever, which certainly make huf weaker. And I’ve also read that nobody buys the state bonds(however the base interest rate in Hungary 8.5%) and some banks stopped to give loans in CHF/USD.

So if there anybody out there who has knowledge on these things and have the time and will to write it down here it would be highly appreciated. It would be nice to see how the western investors see the situation of my home country.
Let's put it this way: retail accts where piling into the HUF way back in '03 because of the yield play. Most investment banks where pushing the "EU convergence" seling point - i.e. that peripheral countries (Hungary, Poland et al) would finally line up to "core EU" countries both in interest rates and currency levels.
Many funds and leverage players did the carry trade thing: they would get a loan denominated in a low yielding currency like SFR or JPY or - USD - and take home the yield differential "for free". But the catch is that you are exposed to multiple risks because of fluctuations in currency or yield both of your own currency as well as the currency of your leveraged investmente.
So it comes to be that the now carry trades are being unwound (i.e. the investor needs to buy back the currency in which he is indebted) to the detriment of both the bonds and the currency because the investors are forced to repatriate to their base currency - for most of the world, nowadays it is the US.

Remember - no such thing like a "free lunch". The higher yield always comes at the cost of possibly higher losses either in the currency or the bond or both. Icelandia docet...

Paul
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  #437  
Old 15.10.2008, 14:25
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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A question on how governments are taking over banks: Are they buying the banks through the stock market? Are they only taking over banks that are asking for help? Or are they practically confiscating banks?
Yes.

Seriously, in the US, my understanding is that in at least some cases they're being sold 'preferred stock' (whatever that is) by the banks. It isn't completely clear how that works, except that the (other) shareholders and the boards are supposedly happy to have the government aboard as savior, and it's understood that the price of salvation is giving up some ownership and control to whoever is doing the saving (whether it's the government itself, or the fed, or whoever).

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewr...es/023498.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rozeff/rozeff227.html
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  #438  
Old 15.10.2008, 14:31
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Re: How Safe is UBS

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I do disagree to that.
...... it looked better for Kaupthing than the other banks and it was thought Kaupthing would survieve this.
I do beleve that Brown's action caused.....
I am sure many people believe and say this but the reality is stable banks do not collapse.

About "misuse" of the anti-terrorist legislation - It is sadly a common political trick to give one reason for introducing legislation & then to use it for something entirely different.

For example, the English NatWest bankers who were threatend with deportation to the US (or actually deported?) to face charges related to alleged financial fraud. That was also using anti-terrorist legislation.

Politicians also use wartime to introduce "emergency" legislation that would never be accepted in calmer times & is still kept on the books.

Marton
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  #439  
Old 15.10.2008, 15:44
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Re: How Safe is UBS

The NatWest Three were indeed extradited.
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Old 15.10.2008, 17:19
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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No, this was not a question
But thanks anyway.
If it wasn't a question then I assume you knew their exposure to collateralised type securities was down to zero following the redemption in summer of the latest chunk they held of Paragon paper... so why ask then?
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