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  #721  
Old 21.11.2008, 11:52
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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I dont want to sound like a broken record, but why? Are Asian assets in worse shape than US ones?
Couple of reasons;
For Americans investing in non-American assets there is an extra risk which is the exchange rate risk.
Also the Asian companies are in the business of exporting & if the export markets dry up then they do not have much of a home market to fall back on.

Marton
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  #722  
Old 21.11.2008, 11:53
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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I dont want to sound like a broken record, but why?

Are Asian assets in worse shape than US ones?
US Banks, hedge funds, etc. have enormous debts at home. Hence, they must sell whatever they have, wherever and at fire-sale prices. Subsequently, they must buy dollars and bring home the cash.

The Asians, however, are buying up cheap American assets, e.g. Arabian and Singaporean investments into US Banks. So they, too, are buying dollars.
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  #723  
Old 21.11.2008, 11:57
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Just a short question: why is the CHF going down against the USD, JPY, EUR etc?
Anything to do with the UBS, CS .... are there bad news coming we (simple mortals) don't know about yet?
--I.
1st of all, as long as there are huge speculations around don't look too much for fundamentals to justify ups and downs in all markets !
USD had to go down and it went in last a few years, but due to spec. it was oversold, and in last couple of months, they are buying it back, so goes up.
ex. Oil, no real supply demand rule, could explian why it tripled in 2-3 years and more than halfed in a few months. Even global recession,..... can only reduce consuption around 10%. So all the rest are SPECULATION by zillions of day traders, Hedge funds, investors,...

- I see current currency prices pretty fair, for CHS, EUR and USD.
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  #724  
Old 21.11.2008, 13:31
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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To get rid of Asian assets.
not really ... investors are selling out of whatever can be sold to repatriate cash back home - in most cases to pay for deterioration in other $$$ assets (i.e. pay margin calls)

in a classic self-reinforcing cycle, such withdrawals are precipitating further falls in asian assets, as well as in asian currencies - which only makes yet other US investors pull back to the safety of the $$$.
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  #725  
Old 22.11.2008, 21:20
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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The Asians, however, are buying up cheap American assets, e.g. Arabian and Singaporean investments into US Banks. So they, too, are buying dollars.
After the latest falls in bank share values those cheap american assets don't look so cheap anymore?
How much of UBS did Government of Singapore Investment Corp expect to buy with their option to convert to ordinary shares & what is it worth now? Maybe they will get all of UBS?

Marton
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  #726  
Old 22.11.2008, 22:15
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

I guess it is like the biggest 'margin call' in history. I don't know how 300K people get out from under this one.
fduvall


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emigrate?

Marton
From today's FT
"a third of Icelanders say they want to leave their over-mortgaged country. This is globalisation in reverse: when international capital departs a country, labour wants to go with it."

I thought I was being flippant!

Marton
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  #727  
Old 23.11.2008, 08:41
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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After the latest falls in bank share values those cheap american assets don't look so cheap anymore?
How much of UBS did Government of Singapore Investment Corp expect to buy with their option to convert to ordinary shares & what is it worth now? Maybe they will get all of UBS?

Marton
As a Swiss taxpayer, it would not be a bad idea if the Singaporeans took over UBS. Better their money than our taxes to prop up UBS.
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  #728  
Old 23.11.2008, 10:04
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

BBC News article "Why the Swiss want bank bosses fed to crocodiles" http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programme...nt/7741561.stm
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  #729  
Old 23.11.2008, 11:20
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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As a Swiss taxpayer, it would not be a bad idea if the Singaporeans took over UBS. Better their money than our taxes to prop up UBS.
ebbe

Marton
p.s. The banking commission said today "we cannot rule the possibility that UBS will need more State help"

Last edited by marton; 23.11.2008 at 11:40.
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  #730  
Old 24.11.2008, 08:42
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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ebbe

Marton
p.s. The banking commission said today "we cannot rule the possibility that UBS will need more State help"
Yeah. Reading the press reports it seems to be more a question of when not if.
http://www.reuters.com/article/merge...45160020081123
They rule out a merger with CS and hint further help will come in the form of capital top ups. So clearly not out of the woods yet. The rescue plan for Citigroup over the weekend has spooked the banking sector all over again and my guess is the banking commission is getting ahead of this by trying to calm nerves confirming that they won't let UBS fail. Just to put in context, Citicorp's $306bn of troubled assets is nearly half the total of Paulson's original TARP - just in one bank!

Last edited by Nev; 24.11.2008 at 11:11.
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  #731  
Old 25.11.2008, 19:23
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Just as usual,
The US gov decides to spend 800 billion and the Dow is down 1.3 % ans Nasdaq 2.3 ! Can anybody tell me why?

And it seems that Ospel & Co will pay back CHF 22 million to UBS - nice gesture!
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  #732  
Old 25.11.2008, 20:18
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Just as usual,
The US gov decides to spend 800 billion and the Dow is down 1.3 % ans Nasdaq 2.3 ! Can anybody tell me why?
Profit-taking after huge rally Friday and Monday. Plenty of folks still around who need to sell and wait for rallies to offload. The fat lady hasn't sung yet!
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  #733  
Old 25.11.2008, 22:34
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Just as usual,
The US gov decides to spend 800 billion and the Dow is down 1.3 % ans Nasdaq 2.3 ! Can anybody tell me why?

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Profit-taking after huge rally Friday and Monday. Plenty of folks still around who need to sell and wait for rallies to offload. The fat lady hasn't sung yet!
True,
also there is not a strong link between saving bankrupt banks & general stock prices.

In theory share prices are related to dividends. If bank interest rates are, for a simple example, 5% and a $100 share returns a dividend of 6% ($6) then the price should go up to say $120 so the return is 5%. If the $100 share returns 4% then the price goes down to $80 so the return is 5%.
This is where the Price/earnings ration comes into play.

Life gets more complicated when people have to guess what dividends might be in the future.
Plus in practice there are too many people who buy & sell shares without studying the fundamentals so it is hard to forecast when shares prices will fall or rise.

Marton
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  #734  
Old 28.11.2008, 00:28
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Swiss National Bank reduced its 3- month LIBOR target band TODAY by 1 point on top of the recent half point reduction I mentioned.

p.s Libor rate is now 1.96; lucky my mortgage comes up for renewal soon & not 2/3 months ago.

Marton
Now the ECB are rumoured to cut rates by 0.5 or 0.75 next week; if so Swiss National Bank will have to follow to stop the franc rising too much.

Hello negative interest rates

Actually on the topic of low interest rates leaving little room to cut further I liked the following comment in the FT
"Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, an ECB executive board member, argued this week that in “spaghetti westerns”, the “goodies” won if they shot first – but they had to hit the target: “There is no scene more depressing than one in which the cavalry is surrounded, without any ammunition left.”"

Swiss Libor is now down to 1.28; last time it was at that level about 5/6 years ago the "flexible" mortgage rates were around 1.75% - this time around they are hovering around higher levels (between 2.7% & 3.5%) - greedy bankers??

Marton
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  #735  
Old 28.11.2008, 00:36
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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This is where the Price/earnings ration comes into play.
P/E ratio = greatest crockery known to man. I have yet to get a scientifically reasonable explanation of why a XYZ p/e ratio is "appropriate" for an industry.
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  #736  
Old 28.11.2008, 00:38
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Swiss Libor is now down to 1.28; last time it was at that level about 5/6 years ago the "flexible" mortgage rates were around 1.75% - this time around they are hovering around higher levels (between 2.7% & 3.5%) - greedy bankers??

Marton
Aaaw, come on. We (especially futures trading types) all know banking is a pro bono business.
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  #737  
Old 28.11.2008, 06:03
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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UBS’s head of global leveraged finance for Asia Pacific is to leave ... Steve Bennett has resigned and will be replaced by Guy Wylie who is ...
Gordon Bennet or rather Steve Bennet- leverage what leverage? The rats are leaving a sinking ship.
Obama must get into office before the new year to save the US from depression, where the US goes UBS follows; at least has US has China to bail it out. Who will bail UBS?
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  #738  
Old 28.11.2008, 10:44
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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P/E ratio = greatest crockery known to man. I have yet to get a scientifically reasonable explanation of why a XYZ p/e ratio is "appropriate" for an industry.
Elementary really. my dear Shorrick...

cause some earnings are better than others ??
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  #739  
Old 28.11.2008, 14:45
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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P/E ratio = greatest crockery known to man. I have yet to get a scientifically reasonable explanation of why a XYZ p/e ratio is "appropriate" for an industry.
Right on! - Because nobody is really capable of pricing in absolute terms - especially the specialists, LOL

And this continuous need for some kind of benchmark - which at the end of the day turns out to be totally subjective - is one of the big problems of the financial industry. In Black Swan Taleb quite correctly rants and rails against looking for average whatevers - but I suspect that our puny brains are only capable of thinking in relative and not in absolute terms :-/

Paul
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  #740  
Old 28.11.2008, 14:48
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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...there are too many people who buy & sell shares without studying the fundamentals so it is hard to forecast when shares prices will fall or rise.

Marton
Hmmm... care to rise to a challenge and tell me how would you analyse a bank stock from a "fundamental" perspective, especially after sept '08?

Paul
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