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  #741  
Old 28.11.2008, 22:46
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

"Replaced by guy Wylie" I can`t prononuce his name must be a crook
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  #742  
Old 28.11.2008, 23:28
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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"Replaced by guy Wylie" I can`t prononuce his name must be a crook
Funny, they must have thought "go get someone-a wylie guy?- yeh that's right, he'll do!"
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  #743  
Old 01.12.2008, 14:11
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Hmmm... care to rise to a challenge and tell me how would you analyse a bank stock from a "fundamental" perspective, especially after sept '08?

Paul
OK, I crossed UBS off any possible buy list in the Springtime when it was reported senior management were selling their share options.
Is that "fundamental" enough

Marton
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  #744  
Old 01.12.2008, 14:15
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Elementary really. my dear Shorrick...
cause some earnings are better than others ??
Back in the heady dot com days people (not me) were buying shares that had P/Es in the 40s - and some analysts were coming up with fancy theories that supported these shares were a "buy".

I have to say that today I find shares tempting that have forward P/Es in the 8 to 10 range; the challenge is to verify that their earning predictions are realistic.

Marton
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  #745  
Old 01.12.2008, 14:21
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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P/E ratio = greatest crockery known to man. I have yet to get a scientifically reasonable explanation of why a XYZ p/e ratio is "appropriate" for an industry.
I agree that it makes no sense to say a XYZ p/e ratio is "appropriate" for a particular industry.

In normal times, whatever they are, I am risk averse & find it hard to consider a share with a P/E over 20

Marton
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  #746  
Old 04.12.2008, 09:22
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

The poopie hits the ventilator @ CS.... Lost 3 bln in Q3 and cutting 5'300 jobs.
My sympathies to any CS employee on the board - and generally to all those who will be made redundant thanks to top-managment myopia :-/

Paul
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  #747  
Old 04.12.2008, 10:01
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

But Paul ... at least CS management is not taking any bonuses for this year, what a sweet gesture, I think I am about to cry. (not)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1228...googlenews_wsj

5,300 jobs will be cut worldwide (of which 880 in PB) - that's 11% of all jobs. Of those, 650 will be cut in Switzerland (across all divisions).

Ouch.

in German: http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/wirtsc...1.1353072.html
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  #748  
Old 04.12.2008, 11:00
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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5,300 jobs will be cut worldwide (of which 880 in PB)
According to FT; 5,300 plus 1,200 contractors

Marton
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  #749  
Old 04.12.2008, 11:22
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

From the horse's mouth: Credit Suisse boss Brady Dougan just said reduction of 1,400 contractors on a call to investors/analysts/media.

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According to FT; 5,300 plus 1,200 contractors

Marton
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  #750  
Old 04.12.2008, 13:15
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Bank of England just cut rates by 1% to 2% - back to the 1951 level.

Looking for news on ECB & SNB

And I found the ECB just cut by 0.75%; how long can the SNB hold out

Marton

Last edited by marton; 04.12.2008 at 14:03.
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  #751  
Old 04.12.2008, 13:29
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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From the horse's mouth: Credit Suisse boss Brady Dougan just said reduction of 1,400 contractors on a call to investors/analysts/media.
They did not know how many toxic assets they had so I assume they also have no clue about how many contractors.

Marton
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  #752  
Old 04.12.2008, 14:03
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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They did not know how many toxic assets they had so I assume they also have no clue about how many contractors.

Marton
Maybe the Financial Times made a typo or copied from a not-so-well-informed source?
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  #753  
Old 04.12.2008, 14:15
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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They did not know how many toxic assets they had so I assume they also have no clue about how many contractors.

Marton
Maybe you should call Brady and set him straight.
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  #754  
Old 04.12.2008, 14:20
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Maybe the Financial Times made a typo or copied from a not-so-well-informed source?
Time will tell; I would bet there are a lot more than 1400.

Marton
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  #755  
Old 04.12.2008, 15:40
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

December 11th is when SNB is scheduled to deliver rate decisions. They've already made a surprise unscheduled cut of 1% intra-meeting. They'll cut at least another .25% I'd think. It's even possible they'll cut .50%. They're worried about the banking sector and the high Franc/Euro exchange rate will seriously hurt Swiss exports and tourism which is most of Swiss GDP.

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Bank of England just cut rates by 1% to 2% - back to the 1951 level.

Looking for news on ECB & SNB

And I found the ECB just cut by 0.75%; how long can the SNB hold out

Marton
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  #756  
Old 04.12.2008, 20:11
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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They did not know how many toxic assets they had so I assume they also have no clue about how many contractors.
You may think you are jesting but that actually happened when HP took over Compaq. At one point they were asking their customers how many contractors they were supplying and where they were.
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  #757  
Old 04.12.2008, 20:24
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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You may think you are jesting but that actually happened when HP took over Compaq. At one point they were asking their customers how many contractors they were supplying and where they were.
No, sadly not jesting.

My first role in Switzerland was to install an online management system for the 45 UNIX servers at a large company. I stopped counting after I found 130 (excluding external servers that were not well isolated and came up on the search).

Actually i was thinking of Brady's comments earlier this year
On 19 Feb 2008 Credit Suisse has reported a $2.85 billion writedown due to mis-markings and pricing errors in structured credit products exposed to US subprime mortgages
The bank declined to comment on how long it had been mis-marking its positions. However, Dougan said he had no idea of the problem when he announced the bank's fourth-quarter 2007 results on February 12.
As Harold Wilson once said "a week is a long time in politics"

Marton
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  #758  
Old 05.12.2008, 13:27
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

unfortunately, and not to be presumptive, but it seems like this crisis may have at least contributed to the quite shocking news that the Julius Baer chief executive Alex Widmer just committed suicide.
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  #759  
Old 05.12.2008, 14:14
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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No, sadly not jesting.

My first role in Switzerland was to install an online management system for the 45 UNIX servers at a large company. I stopped counting after I found 130 (excluding external servers that were not well isolated and came up on the search).
I can see the problem there. Ouch.

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Actually i was thinking of Brady's comments earlier this year
On 19 Feb 2008 Credit Suisse has reported a $2.85 billion writedown due to mis-markings and pricing errors in structured credit products exposed to US subprime mortgages
The bank declined to comment on how long it had been mis-marking its positions. However, Dougan said he had no idea of the problem when he announced the bank's fourth-quarter 2007 results on February 12.
As Harold Wilson once said "a week is a long time in politics"
A more recent foul-up was the Barclays purchase of some toxic Lehman contracts. This was down to hidden rows in a spreadsheet finding their way into a PDF file where they became visible and were bought. link Someone obviously hasn't heard of control totals.

But the problem of data errors is not new. One of my first jobs in IT was helping to transfer data from a magnetic strip card system onto punch cards, and it was surprising how many errors we picked up in something as fundamental as customer addresses.
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  #760  
Old 05.12.2008, 14:26
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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unfortunately, and not to be presumptive, but it seems like this crisis may have at least contributed to the quite shocking news that the Julius Baer chief executive Alex Widmer just committed suicide.
I wouldn't rush to connect dots that quickly. For example I note that Templeton's voting stake in Baer dropped to 4.96%, as announced by SWX this morning.
Maybe THAT is the connection.
Maybe not

I remember one famous pop singer who indulged in extreme games until he went just a tad too far...

So who knows what it's all about, huh....? If anything, don't read the Blick.....

Paul
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