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  #1521  
Old 22.01.2010, 17:17
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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In one of the online news channel, I read during the current credit crisis, only two banks are really able to withstand the financial downfall - UBS and Merrill Lynch

Is this true?
Don't understand - Merrill Lynch are owned by Bank of America, how can they withstand anything on their own??

Which financial downfall are we talking about?
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  #1522  
Old 22.01.2010, 17:28
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Don't understand - Merrill Lynch are owned by Bank of America, how can they withstand anything on their own??

Which financial downfall are we talking about?
"By Hintz's calculations, only the Swiss bank UBS and Merrill Lynch of the US had the resources to resist collapse when the credit crunch was in full swing."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...k-shares-slump
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Old 22.01.2010, 17:55
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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"By Hintz's calculations, only the Swiss bank UBS and Merrill Lynch of the US had the resources to resist collapse when the credit crunch was in full swing."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...k-shares-slump
when you made that post I thought you were being cynical..
i' m not an analyst so i cannot back my statements by numbers but when the crisis was in full swing almost nobody felt safe. When the rumour mill started to turn, banks started cutting credit lines (life lines in those days) to the bank in question; so even banks without problem could start facing problems.
So, you had CEOs making public announcement how safe they were let's say on a Monday and had to resort to government funding five days later.

As for Merrill Lynch, I do however remember that there was a period when its survival depended on finding a buyer. If Bank of America did not step in at the right moment (I do suspect that BOFA might have been forced by the government to go ahead with that deal). News stories following the acquisition were also on the same line.

UBS was one of the worst affected banks by the crisis.. If I remember correctly they were topping the list of "Write-down lists" with their high participation in US subprime.

My humble list of safest banks would consist of HSBC, JP and probably BNP.
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  #1524  
Old 22.01.2010, 18:44
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Re Hintz's comments, only thing I can think of is that he thinks Merrill and UBS weren't as highly leveraged as others and so their capital was big enough to absorb writedowns on their toxic asset portfolio. It was leverage that sunk Lehman. As SemAms rightly points out, Merrill was forced into arms of BofA because of a collapse in confidence was causing a stock price collapse and a liquidity squeeze.
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  #1525  
Old 22.01.2010, 18:50
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Obama's plan will really change the game. But the question is if it will be a law.

"No one is too big to fail"
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  #1526  
Old 22.01.2010, 20:14
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Re Hintz's comments, only thing I can think of is that he thinks Merrill and UBS weren't as highly leveraged as others and so their capital was big enough to absorb writedowns on their toxic asset portfolio. It was leverage that sunk Lehman. As SemAms rightly points out, Merrill was forced into arms of BofA because of a collapse in confidence was causing a stock price collapse and a liquidity squeeze.
Could be, the only list I would have put UBS & Merril Lynch on was my "sell immediately" list.

I thought Goldman Sachs were in good shape? But I do not know the technical details.
CS also got by without any Govt. help & were less exposed that most?.
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  #1527  
Old 22.01.2010, 20:52
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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I thought Goldman Sachs were in good shape? But I do not know the technical details.
CS also got by without any Govt. help & were less exposed that most?.
I agree Marton. It's hard to comment on why Hintz singled out UBS and Merrill without seeing the full text and context of his comments. There were plenty of banks who weren't at risk. HSBC and Barclays were two other big banks that didn't need assistance.
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  #1528  
Old 22.01.2010, 21:00
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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CHF is still down to 1.47 versus euro; the Swiss govt will have to talk harder...
Wait a little longer; the Euro will fall against the Swiss Franc when the real situation of Western Europe effected by Southern Ireland, Spain, Greece and some of the East European members hits).
Sterling will also fall much probably to CHF1.4 by the end of the year. The UK is in a bigger mess than you believe; more big bad debts to be revelaed as I said on loans to SMEs, Private Loan and credit cards.
If the shares fall back to a proper level (FT100 = 4,000) then the banks will be in trouble again or they will shift the losses to their client privateinvestment funds as the UBS had been doing for years.
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  #1529  
Old 22.01.2010, 21:04
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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Obama's plan will really change the game. But the question is if it will be a law.

"No one is too big to fail"
I'm not sure Obamas plan will take place. Aren't there too many government people tied into Goldman Sachs to let a bill like that get through.
More likely a bill would be passed to split between Banking and Investment Banking within a Bank with a supposed Chinese wall which means basically no change.
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  #1530  
Old 22.01.2010, 23:14
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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I'm not sure Obamas plan will take place. Aren't there too many government people tied into Goldman Sachs to let a bill like that get through.
More likely a bill would be passed to split between Banking and Investment Banking within a Bank with a supposed Chinese wall which means basically no change.
Judging from the latest polls, i would not be surprised if Obama did not resort to some populist but anti-market policies. Forcing banks out of proprietary trading will just shift the emphasis further onto hedge funds and other non-jurisdiction institutions => further eroding transparency

Obama is just being desperate
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  #1531  
Old 23.01.2010, 00:58
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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"By Hintz's calculations, only the Swiss bank UBS and Merrill Lynch of the US had the resources to resist collapse when the credit crunch was in full swing."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...k-shares-slump


yeah right.... of course he knew better than Merrill's CEO who worked feverishly to sell the bank over the weekend after Lehman collapsed
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  #1532  
Old 23.01.2010, 01:02
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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I'm not sure Obamas plan will take place. Aren't there too many government people tied into Goldman Sachs to let a bill like that get through.
More likely a bill would be passed to split between Banking and Investment Banking within a Bank with a supposed Chinese wall which means basically no change.
all you can really expect to see happen is that the so called Chinese walls will get a new coat of paint. and of course you and I will get to pay for the paint too.
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  #1533  
Old 23.01.2010, 02:47
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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I agree Marton. It's hard to comment on why Hintz singled out UBS and Merrill without seeing the full text and context of his comments. There were plenty of banks who weren't at risk. HSBC and Barclays were two other big banks that didn't need assistance.
True - I was not creating a comprehensive list just examples that I thought were better than quoted but as you say "without seeing the full text and context of his comments" it is difficult to make a valid comment.
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  #1534  
Old 23.01.2010, 05:17
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

A client of the Swiss bank UBS has won an appeal against handing over data to US tax authorities.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8475935.stm

It still do not understand the reason that the UBS gave the information to the US Inland Revenue and that the Swiss Government let the bank do this as they all knew what was going on.

Perhaps somebody can explain the reason that this actually occured. What would the US government have done if the UBS had stated we can not do this under Swiss law?
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  #1535  
Old 23.01.2010, 07:56
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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I'm not sure Obamas plan will take place. Aren't there too many government people tied into Goldman Sachs to let a bill like that get through.
More likely a bill would be passed to split between Banking and Investment Banking within a Bank with a supposed Chinese wall which means basically no change.
Infact, it now looks as if it has already started:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle6999197.ece
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  #1536  
Old 23.01.2010, 11:43
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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A client of the Swiss bank UBS has won an appeal against handing over data to US tax authorities.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8475935.stm

It still do not understand the reason that the UBS gave the information to the US Inland Revenue and that the Swiss Government let the bank do this as they all knew what was going on.

Perhaps somebody can explain the reason that this actually occured. What would the US government have done if the UBS had stated we can not do this under Swiss law?
nothing much... just ban UBS from operating in the US. maybe ban all Swiss banks from operating in the US??
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  #1537  
Old 27.01.2010, 09:24
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

So markets are down since already a week

is this correction caused only by political issues?

about 85% of companies have beated markets expectation

what can we expect next??

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Infact, it now looks as if it has already started:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle6999197.ece
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  #1538  
Old 27.01.2010, 09:57
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

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So markets are down since already a week

is this correction caused only by political issues?

about 85% of companies have beated markets expectation

what can we expect next??
I would say that the markets are possibly down now because the bonuses are based on profits up to the 31st December. The traders would want high prices at this point as bonuses would be based on a rise of the shares in effect. they hyped it up in other words for their bonuses.

Seriously; how can the FT100 be at 5,300 ish? What is the justification?
How can companies make profits when not many customers have credit to buy anything? If there are no sales; there is no profit; if there is no profit; there is no dividends. Even if there are profits, there are deficits on the company pension schemes that need to be filled and companies cannot pay dividends because they haven't the physical cash.

This is off the subject; but I think there will be a few shocks in 2010 and the banks may well end up in trouble if the shares fall by any significant amount. The investment banking side has been using monies that the banks got from the Bank of England etc. in exchange for in effect their bad debts. They decided to gamble with this money than lend it out in normal banking to customers from what I can see.
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  #1539  
Old 01.02.2010, 08:50
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Re: Financial Crisis Bank News [was: How Safe is UBS?]

Comon

Why would keep your money in a bank? Spend it.

UBS is as safe as possible for now. They got rid of their Junk bonds (Swiss tax payers bought them in fact).

Consider Post BAnk , if doubt persists.

Good luck
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  #1540  
Old 01.02.2010, 19:48
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Swiss warn UBS bank could collapse

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...614648ee11.c61
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