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Old 19.11.2010, 15:10
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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Well as I wrote, I am open to consider more points in favour of these proposals if anybody wants to offer them.

Like everybody else I just saw the headlines & listened to the "soundbites" & thought why not?
But when I dug into it a bit more I could not find good reasons to vote for them.
I had given this some thought, and I am leaning against the SVP's initiative. The initiative is not very well thought through. Three things I do not like about it:

-Inclusion of economic crime. Not the kind of society I want either.
-Automatic deportation. Not likely to be fully implementable, yet it takes away the prerogative of making an intelligent decision.
-SVP political hegemony. I don't really want the SVP to claim victory on this one.

Yet, I do believe that laws need to be toughened to deter crime. This is really my only point of agreement with the initiative.

There was a recent incident in Zug where a man crossed the street in an unsafe way. A little child did as the man did, and followed the man. An 85 year old Swiss woman started to scold the man, who was yes, Serbian. The Serbian man argued back with the woman, and beat her. Witnesses saw him stomping on her while she laid on the ground. They chased him down and had him arrested. I'm sorry, but regardless of the ethnicity of this man, I find this kind of behavior totally unacceptable. And I can't think of any other measures being discussed in regards to situations like this other than this initiative. If it requires instilling more fear in people who have the propensity to do such things, I am totally for sending a clear message that this way of life does not belong here.

So with that, I've decided to lean towards the Gegenvorschlag. This weekend, I will likely send in the vote of "Yes/Yes/Gegenvorschlag".
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Old 19.11.2010, 15:38
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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The Serbian man argued back with the woman, and beat her. Witnesses saw him stomping on her while she laid on the ground. They chased him down and had him arrested. I'm sorry, but regardless of the ethnicity of this man, I find this kind of behavior totally unacceptable. And I can't think of any other measures being discussed in regards to situations like this other than this initiative.
That's the thing, the more I think about it, the more I can't justify to myself voting for it because it's the only game in town for toughening laws on crime. An imperfect (in fact, a downright broken in some key ways) one at that.

This may be an emotional way of looking at it, but I tried putting myself in the mindset of the people who proposed this initiative, and as much as I'd like to think they want to punish people for being criminals first, and foreigners second, it's likely the other way around. The UDC/SVP will probably gain much more from this politically than crime will be prevented in any substantial way (as marton pointed out).

Anyways, recent polls seem to indicate that it's going to pass, I remain hopeful that it has the desired positive effect for Swiss people and isn't just a red herring à la the minaret initiative.
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Old 19.11.2010, 15:39
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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........................
Yet, I do believe that laws need to be toughened to deter crime. This is really my only point of agreement with the initiative."..........
I agree - or maybe the laws do not need to be toughened but the enforcement needs to be toughened.
There are a lot of laws in Switzerland already - maybe do as in UK recently & get rid of the silly/minor ones & concentrate on enforcing the important ones.

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........................ So with that, I've decided to lean towards the Gegenvorschlag. This weekend, I will likely send in the vote of "Yes/Yes/Gegenvorschlag".
As I already wrote too many times I am not convinced these measures will help.
Likely I will vote No/No/Gegenvorschlag (I think that is allowed, must check the document again)

This in an attempt to block the SVP proposal which I find too brutal.
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  #244  
Old 19.11.2010, 16:15
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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I had given this some thought, and I am leaning against the SVP's initiative. The initiative is not very well thought through. Three things I do not like about it:

-Inclusion of economic crime. Not the kind of society I want either.
-Automatic deportation. Not likely to be fully implementable, yet it takes away the prerogative of making an intelligent decision.
-SVP political hegemony. I don't really want the SVP to claim victory on this one.

Yet, I do believe that laws need to be toughened to deter crime. This is really my only point of agreement with the initiative.

There was a recent incident in Zug where a man crossed the street in an unsafe way. A little child did as the man did, and followed the man. An 85 year old Swiss woman started to scold the man, who was yes, Serbian. The Serbian man argued back with the woman, and beat her. Witnesses saw him stomping on her while she laid on the ground. They chased him down and had him arrested. I'm sorry, but regardless of the ethnicity of this man, I find this kind of behavior totally unacceptable. And I can't think of any other measures being discussed in regards to situations like this other than this initiative. If it requires instilling more fear in people who have the propensity to do such things, I am totally for sending a clear message that this way of life does not belong here.

So with that, I've decided to lean towards the Gegenvorschlag. This weekend, I will likely send in the vote of "Yes/Yes/Gegenvorschlag".
So, where should they have shipped the person off to if he was a Swiss citizen?
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  #245  
Old 19.11.2010, 16:31
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

Happened sooner than I expected; already the SVP are arguing amongst themselves about the exact meaning & interpretation of their own proposal & some of them are already suggesting to apply it to minor crimes.

My rough translation
"we demand that every foreigner must leave the country, who has been convicted of a burglary even if they only stole one sausage"

Sorry all in German language, link to TagesAnzeiger
http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/schweiz/...story/29645648
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  #246  
Old 19.11.2010, 16:51
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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No, it is not at all a ridiculuous leap - I explained it before in detail here and I recommend you to look at the article I linked: If even one of the typing monkeys at 20 minutes gets the messages of the posters it must be pretty obvious to any Swiss. The names of the criminals are not all ambiguous - it is more than clear who Ivan an Detlef are.

http://www.20min.ch/news/schweiz/sto...katen-31602943
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  #247  
Old 19.11.2010, 17:13
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

I found some statistics which are useful.
Hiers a link about the conviction statistics (foreigner und Swiss seperated) and also how things would change with the 2 initiatives:
http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/d.../05/01/02.html

What I found Interesting is that foreigners who don't perminantly live here are convicted almost as much than the ones who live here

Here's one about repeat offenders:

http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/de/index/themen/19/04/03/01/05/01.html

on average a quarter of criminals offend again. Although on the website traffic crimes is also listed so I'm taking some who has to go in front of a judge for speeding is also considered. If you download the excel table you see the offenders listed by crime. 50% of thieves for example commit a crime again for example although yes it doesn't say how serious the crime is.

Here's what the counter initiative wants:

http://www.tagesschau.sf.tv/Hintergr...ve-im-Wortlaut

There's articles to improve intergration
They want to expel people or are convicted for 1 year of serious crimes such as murder and rape
To expel people who are convicted for 18 months of fraud
and to expel people who are convicted for 2 years of other crimes or convicted for 720 days jail over 10 years.

I know Switerland won't get any better with this law and I realise this is more or less another the stick for the SVP to beat the foreigners with but I find the counter initiative fair enough. I think its understandable that the Swiss don't want these kind of people in Switzerland

And with the counter initiative no one is gonna get kicked out for a normal bar fight of for getting caught with a joint.
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  #248  
Old 19.11.2010, 18:00
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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I found some statistics which are useful.
Hiers a link about the conviction statistics (foreigner und Swiss seperated) and also how things would change with the 2 initiatives:
http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/d.../05/01/02.html

What I found Interesting is that foreigners who don't perminantly live here are convicted almost as much than the ones who live here

Here's one about repeat offenders:

http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/de/index/themen/19/04/03/01/05/01.html

on average a quarter of criminals offend again. Although on the website traffic crimes is also listed so I'm taking some who has to go in front of a judge for speeding is also considered. If you download the excel table you see the offenders listed by crime. 50% of thieves for example commit a crime again for example although yes it doesn't say how serious the crime is.

Here's what the counter initiative wants:

http://www.tagesschau.sf.tv/Hintergr...ve-im-Wortlaut

There's articles to improve intergration
They want to expel people or are convicted for 1 year of serious crimes such as murder and rape
To expel people who are convicted for 18 months of fraud
and to expel people who are convicted for 2 years of other crimes or convicted for 720 days jail over 10 years.

I know Switerland won't get any better with this law and I realise this is more or less another the stick for the SVP to beat the foreigners with but I find the counter initiative fair enough. I think its understandable that the Swiss don't want these kind of people in Switzerland

And with the counter initiative no one is gonna get kicked out for a normal bar fight of for getting caught with a joint.
I agree the counter initiatitive is more logical.

Good to see some numbers.

So if I got it right; a quarter of the criminals are repeat offenders. Around half of offenders are foreign; half of these foreign criminals do not live here. Either they are EU so can walk in & out under Schengen rules at any time or they did not bother with permits.
Using these numbers as a basis then expelling all convicted foreign criminals could reduce crime by a quarter times one half times one half? So the proposals could reduce crime by about one sixteenth?

Or to put it another way Switzerland could be expelling up to around 200 potential repeat offenders per year?

Or did I get my numbers all wrong
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  #249  
Old 19.11.2010, 18:09
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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Or to put it another way Switzerland could be expelling up to around 200 potential repeat offenders per year?

Or did I get my numbers all wrong
An article I read stated it would have doubled to quadrupled the number of criminal deportations in the previous year. I think for the SVP proposal, something like 1200, and 800 for the counter-proposal. Unfortunately, I don't remember where I read that.
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Old 19.11.2010, 18:49
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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I agree the counter initiatitive is more logical.

Switzerland could be expelling up to around 200 potential repeat offenders per year?

Or did I get my numbers all wrong
The top link of mine has an excel table estimating how much people would be expelled due to the 2 initiatives. For the SVP one it is 1400 and another 1400 who weren't living here (interestingly most of these would be for drugs and brake ins)

the counter initiative would have expelled 800 people living here and almost another 700 who don't live here.

The numbers aren't great, and I didn't think they would be. I also don't know how it compares to the way it is now.
But as I've said I understand if the Swiss say we don't want any murderers, rapists,serious thugs or robbers, kidnappers, people traffickers, serious drug dealers or serious fraudsters living here. I think it really would just hit the seriously bad behaved foreigners and not any who just happened to make a mistake


Edit. Sorry your talking about repeat offenders. Hmm dunno. I think it's hard to tell say anything definite with those facts as they only count total convictions. The counter initiative defines the seriousness of the crimes. Some one convicted of violence may still be able to stay here for example.

Theoretically though you could also say the counter initiative would stop 200-400 serious crimes from happening as statistically a quarter of them would reoffend

Last edited by yjt; 19.11.2010 at 19:02.
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  #251  
Old 19.11.2010, 23:56
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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The top link of mine has an excel table estimating how much people would be expelled due to the 2 initiatives. For the SVP one it is 1400 and another 1400 who weren't living here (interestingly most of these would be for drugs and brake ins)

the counter initiative would have expelled 800 people living here and almost another 700 who don't live here.

The numbers aren't great, and I didn't think they would be. I also don't know how it compares to the way it is now.
But as I've said I understand if the Swiss say we don't want any murderers, rapists,serious thugs or robbers, kidnappers, people traffickers, serious drug dealers or serious fraudsters living here. I think it really would just hit the seriously bad behaved foreigners and not any who just happened to make a mistake


Edit. Sorry your talking about repeat offenders. Hmm dunno. I think it's hard to tell say anything definite with those facts as they only count total convictions. The counter initiative defines the seriousness of the crimes. Some one convicted of violence may still be able to stay here for example.

Theoretically though you could also say the counter initiative would stop 200-400 serious crimes from happening as statistically a quarter of them would reoffend
I think the point I was trying to make was that this iniatiitve would stop about 200 cases of repeat offenders that would have been be identified by the "expel all initiatitive".
Not sure what this means in reality, maybe 200 cases per year.
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Old 20.11.2010, 00:09
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

My concern is that the 'against' vote is split by the counter-initiative- which may allow it through.
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Old 20.11.2010, 02:23
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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for example, forgetting to have your vehicle's exhaust gas checked for a few moths is a criminal offence here.....
Damn moths!
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Old 20.11.2010, 02:38
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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Agree with him or not, but the above poster's indignation is only one small example of the polarizing effects these campaigns have on the Swiss society. Some get fed up and leave, taking their experience and training with them, others don't have that option and turn instead to radicalism and minority-centric attitudes marked by persecution and persecution complexes.

Any expat who has been around for awhile knows someone who has left because they were not made to feel welcome in this country.
For every one who leaves, two new ones come, have you seen how much the population has increased in the past few years? It's mad! And it plays right into the SVP's arms.
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Old 20.11.2010, 02:51
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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For every one who leaves, two new ones come, have you seen how much the population has increased in the past few years? It's mad! And it plays right into the SVP's arms.
A) In total real numbers, the acceptance of the Initiative will not change much

B) while there is an increase of the population, it in real terms is NOT "much" and is not "mad". Mad however is and even more will be the DEcrease of the number of people between 20 and 65 in the past 10 years and in the 10 years to come !

- in my generation, for 2 or 3 people getting retired there is just about one person entering the plus-20ies. THIS in recent years WAS, right now IS, and increasingly WILL BE the problem particularily for smaller companies all over the country. And there are people here who daydream about we have to get QUALIFIED immigrants, and immigrants who are NOT Muslims and not 'dark coloured' (call them racists if you want). So that the real challenge (not for Switzerland alone, but to Switzerland to an extent only comparable to the Netherlands) will now be to organize an economy which in the 1960ies and 70ies and 80ies profited of the Baby-Boomers born between 1946 and 1960, but now has to adapt with what became reality in the late 60ies and in the 70ies etc, when couples avoided to have children as not finding the required lodgings affordable !
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  #256  
Old 20.11.2010, 02:58
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

I'm not saying the initiative will change numbers going out, at least I hope not, then it becomes more like deportation and I think the world has been there and done that...
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Old 20.11.2010, 12:48
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

It would be FANTASTIC if nobody got deported because of this initiative. It means they haven't commited a crime.... mission accomplished. Simples.
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Old 21.11.2010, 12:43
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/schweiz/...story/13043254

Poll by Sonntagsblick:

Only 43% of Swiss think there are too many foreigners in the country. 77% think that the naturalization procedure should be standardized. 84% say that they've made good experiences with foreigners. 75% say that without foreigners, CH wouldn't be successful. However, 61% say that foreigners receive welfare too easily. Only 20% say that foreigners take Swiss jobs away.
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Old 21.11.2010, 13:26
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/schweiz/...story/13043254

Poll by Sonntagsblick:

Only 43% of Swiss think there are too many foreigners in the country. 77% think that the naturalization procedure should be standardized. 84% say that they've made good experiences with foreigners. 75% say that without foreigners, CH wouldn't be successful. However, 61% say that foreigners receive welfare too easily. Only 20% say that foreigners take Swiss jobs away.
In this poll it shows young people have a much better attitude towards foreigners (versus people of 55+) so there is hope for the future.
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Old 21.11.2010, 13:57
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

During the past 12 months I've collected two speeding tickets, one in Germany the other one on the St Gallen autobahn (120 in 100 zone), and a parking fine. Should I be concerned about being kicked out? Or is that going to be part of the next round of voting? (i.e. if this one passes)

A concerned non-citizen....
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